[Editor’s note: Former Broncos G.M. Ted Sundquist looks at the Week Fifteen clash between Tampa and Atlanta.] The NFC South has been one of the surprise divisions in the NFL for most of ’08, and I have been very impressed with the job that the Carolina Panthers have done in clawing their way to the top. So much so that I’ve frequently expressed an “unofficial” vote for G.M. Marty Hurney as the NFL’s Executive of the Year. But there’s another NFC South club whose G.M. deserves as much credit in their surprising ascension toward playoff contention. Atlanta’s Thomas Dimitroff has quickly helped change a climate of turmoil & confusion into one of youthful confidence & success. The Falcons would face division rival Tampa Bay for a chance to continue their improbable run at the playoffs. Atlanta was flying high on the play of their young rookie QB Matt Ryan and the legs of free-agent acquisition Michael Turner. Ryan and Turner brought balance to an offense that had already scored 323 points (9th in the NFL). Tampa Bay had turned once again to veteran Jeff Garcia to create the “big plays” through the air and a balanced attack behind the running of Warrick Dunn & Cadillac Williams. Ryan had been schooled somewhat in their first game by Monte Kiffin’s defense, and his production was the lowest on the season. The Bucs sacked Atlanta’s QB 4 times and picked him twice, so KEY #1 was Ryan’s response to a second chance. In the first meeting his mistakes had led to 10 points for the Bucs off turnovers. DE’s Gaines Adams and Kevin Carter would be the primary sources of pressure, and how Atlanta’s offensive line was able to handle this talented duo would be paramount. The numbers weren’t pretty for Ryan; one sack, two interceptions, two hurries and a 57.5 rating. One of the turnovers led to a Tampa Bay score. Carter recorded a pressure, but the Tampa DE’s were held off the Falcons’ QB. Ryan finished 15 of 23 for 206 yards. More importantly he was able to lead the offense to 6 of 14 third down conversions and limit any major miscue damage. The Buccaneer offense had done a solid job all season in holding onto the football and controlling the clock. They were able to penetrate the red zone on numerous occasions but were coming up short in their efficiency to score (30th in the NFL). Atlanta would need to improve upon their defense’s ability to stop the score from inside the 20 (KEY #2). Heavy emphasis would be on bracketing Tampa’s TE’s of Alex Smith, Jerramy Stevens and John Gilmore. This trio had 6 TD’s and might have taken advantage of Garcia’s ability to scramble and find the open receiver. But Garcia sat with a calf injury. Enter backup Brian Griese, and the game plan appeared to transform a bit. Tampa pierced the Atlanta red zone just twice, resulting in 10 points, and the Atlanta defense only let the Bucs to their own 35 one other time (missed FG). If Garcia had played on a “bum leg,” I felt that KEY #3 would have to be the establishment of a solid ground game against the Falcons. Atlanta was giving up almost 122 yards rushing per contest and was really struggling to shut down the run on first. With the production of Dunn and Williams, the Bucs could keep the ball out of the hands of Ryan & Turner via ball control. Griese changed all that and the offense went to a passing attack on first down. Twelve carries resulted in just 32 yards on 1st down, while Griese threw for 13 of 18, 202 yards (74 yards of which sat up scores). With Ryan throwing at 101.0 rating of passes of 21+ “air yards” and generating 37 “big plays” of 20+ yards via the pass, KEY #4 for Tampa Bay would be shutting down the long ball to WR’s Roddy White and Michael Jenkins. The talented duo was averaging over 15 yards per catch and had combined for 9 scores. With heavy defensive concentration on controlling the running game, there might be some opportunities to hit the “big play” down field. Ryan was able to do just that. A 30 yard first quarter strike to White helped set up a TD & another 23 yard throw to Jenkins added to the first scoring drive (26 yard Elam FG). Ryan also hit Jenkins on a 26 yard pass in the 2nd quarter, later threw downfield 33 yards to the Tampa 1 yard line for an interception (Aqib Talib), and then hit TE Jason Rader for 26 yards (but he fumbled on the Tampa 1 yard line & it was recovered by the Bucs). The Falcons weren’t afraid to go at the Bucs secondary via the deep ball and the Bucs came away with their own mixed results in defending it. The final key lay literally at the feet of the two placekickers; Jason Elam and Matt Bryant. Elam had missed just once from beyond 40 yards and that was from 50+. Bryant had struggled all season going 4 of 9 from beyond 40+. In a close game the extended accuracy of both kickers could very well decide the outcome (KEY #5). Ultimately the cool poise of Elam would win in overtime, a 34 yarder to seal the deal. But Bryant had his own opportunity. With just 3:43 remaining the Bucs drove 9 plays to the Atlanta 35. Bryant attempted a 53 yard FG and was wide left. Tampa Bay got one more opportunity off a blocked punt to set up the tie and eventually did (38 yarder). But the long distance miss by Bryant just three minutes earlier might have given the Bucs the points they needed in regulation to close out the game.
TED SUNDQUIST’S WEEK FIFTEEN GAME REVIEW: BUCS AT FALCONS
Published December 16, 2008 01:36 PM