[Editor’s note: Former Broncos G.M. Ted Sundquist looks at the Falcons-Vikings game, which has plenty of playoff implications.] As the Falcons prepare to battle the Vikings, story lines abound, starting with this year’s probable rookie of the year in QB Matt Ryan vs. last year’s in the explosive RB Adrian Peterson. How about the entire turnaround in Atlanta and the jobs that head coach Mike Smith and G.M. Thomas Dimitroff have done? The untimely on again/off again suspensions of Kevin & Pat Williams and their psychological affect on Minnesota’s playoff run? Now add in the return of former starting QB Tarvaris Jackson and his rekindled production, Minnesota’s “win and we’re in” scenario, and the Falcons going from top-three draft pick to potential playoff participant. Wow.Atlanta has had a remarkable season and whether they can catch Tampa Bay for the final wildcard position remains to be seen. But as well as the rookie Ryan has played in his first year at the helm, it’s been the downhill reliability of free agent signee RB Michael Turner that has kept this offense on the move.Turner has rushed for 1,421 yards on a 4.3 average. He’s scored 15 TD’s and along with Jerious Norwood is the reason the Falcons are tied for 1st in rushing yards per game (148.7). The talented tandem also lead the League in runs of 10+ yards (62) and with that kind of production it’s no question why Atlanta turns to their ground game the 2nd most in the League (55.2%).The Vikings will counter with the #1 rush defense in the NFL (71.2 yards per game). Minnesota also leads the League in preventing runs of 4+ yards (34.3%) and don’t give up the “big play” via the ground (10+ yards (1st) & 20+ yards (tied 4th)).KEY #1 will be the ability of the young QB to stretch the Minnesota secondary. The Vikings show a crack in their ability to shut down the deep ball. They’ve surrendered 45 passes of 20+ yards and sit at 29th as a result. Ryan has WR’s Roddy White and Michael Jenkins who both average over 15 yards per catch and have scored 9 combined TD’s. Atlanta has produced 41 completions of 20+ yards and Ryan is 7th in the NFL with a 90.0 rating for throws of 21+ “air yards.” With Jackson back at QB and coming off a nice game against the NFC West champion Arizona Cardinals the Vikings now present a bit more balanced attack. But the Minnesota offense begins & ends with Adrian Peterson. The 2nd year phenom has 1,581 yards rushing and a 4.9 yard average. Minnesota has created their own share of “big plays” on the ground with 53 of 10+ (3rd) & 21 of 20+ (1st). The Vikings are ranked 3rd in the League with 147.6 rushing yards per game and show solid efficiency in hitting for 4+ every carry (43.4%). No doubt KEY #2 for Atlanta will be to slow down Peterson. It’s not even worth exploring other possibilities. Despite the Falcons ability to run the ball themselves, they have yet to figure out how to stop their opponents from doing the same. Atlanta gives up a 120 yards per game and is dead last in run defense efficiency (47% of 4+). The Falcons are also suspect to the “big play” scampers of 10+ (48 & ranked 26th) & 20+ (13 & ranked tied 24th). Opposing teams are finding almost 5 yards per carry on first downs and keeping 3rd downs relatively manageable. Peterson loves the open field and thrives on the perimeter where Atlanta has struggled defensively to bottle up their opponents. KEY #3 more than anything will be the ability for the Minnesota Vikings to control their emotions of an impending NFC North championship. They’ll be home in front of their own fans with the energy and noise filling the Metrodome to its brim. Head coach Brad Childress will be tasked with keeping his squad poised and balanced as the game wears on. Any early miscues or mistakes could lead to a swing in momentum for a visitor that has their own reasons for staying focused. Minnesota hasn’t been to the playoffs since 2004 and now is not the time for an overabundance of excitement. Take care of business first. That said, KEY #4 for Minnesota will be the ability of Jackson to maintain his personal poise and not revert to the early inconsistencies which landed him on the bench. The Falcons can disrupt the rhythm of an opposing pass attack with the blitz and have posted a respectable 28 sacks on the season. They have bent a bit in stopping 3rd down conversions in the medium to long range and show a bit more stinginess early in the series against the pass; 70.9 rating on 1st down passes (6th). The Vikings look to Bernard Berrian for the “big play” through the air and his 20.6 average is indicative of his ability to deliver. Berrian already has a 99 yard reception for a score and the Atlanta secondary has surrendered 41 passes of 20+ yards (tied for 22nd). Look for Childress to try and sneak Berrian behind coverage off play action or with Jackson rolling out on the edge. A steady diet of Peterson might open up the deep game for Minnesota. KEY #5 goes to the veteran PK Jason Elam. As the season winds down and the importance of the kicks amp up, Elam is at his best. Usually an indoor kicker will struggle going on the road (outdoors) but Elam travels to the friendly confines of another domed stadium and will be right in his own element. He slammed home the game winner in OT vs Tampa Bay and relishes opportunities such as this. I’m a bit biased but I’ve yet to see one better. Elam is 27 of 29, 4th in percentage with 93.1 and has hit 11 of 12 from beyond 40. In a close game there’s no question who has the edge.
TED SUNDQUIST’S WEEK SIXTEEN SCOUTING REPORTS: FALCONS AT VIKINGS
Published December 19, 2008 05:52 PM