As the 2009 draft approaches, several teams in the top ten actively are trying to trade out of it.
We’re hearing that this group includes the Lions, Chiefs, and Browns.
It also includes the Jaguars, whom we’re told are desperately trying to get out of the eighth overall spot in the draft.
But the Jags currently can find no takers.
Nor can any of the other teams in the top ten.
As one league source explained it, there are three issues making the top-ten teams want to get out, and keeping other teams from wanting to get in.
First, the money paid at the top of the draft has gotten out of hand. Even hard-core agent types who previously have argued with us about this issue are now admitting that the values of the contracts at the top of the process are too high.
Second, there’s no “bell cow” in the draft — no must-have player in the view of one or more teams.
Third, there’s no real separation between the top players at each position. For example, Michael Crabtree isn’t $20 million better than Hakeem Nicks. But if Crabtree goes within the first seven picks of the round and Nicks goes in the last ten, the dollar value of their respective contracts will entail a gap potentially that large, if not larger.
Ditto for the tackles and the quarterbacks.
So why take a guy at No. 2 when a comparable player can be gotten — for much less money — at No. 20?
In the end, this year’s experience could provide just enough ammunition to get a meaningful rookie wage scale implemented as part of the next CBA.
Jags Trying Hard To Trade Out Of The Top Ten
Posted by Mike Florio on April 13, 2009, 4:42 PM EST
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36 Responses to “Jags Trying Hard To Trade Out Of The Top Ten”
The NFL needs a rookie wage scale. It is one of the few (and I stress few) things that work in the NBA. Prove you’re worth the money and you will get paid. Not, get paid and we hope you’re worth the money!!
If you don’t want a top ten pick…win more games!!! Hahahahaha
*signed*
A Gloating Steeler Fan!
Why on earth would the Chiefs want to trade down instead of taking Aaron Curry??
Yet in the end, it’s all predicting. How can one say that there isn’t a $20 million difference between Michael Crabtree and Hakeem Nicks. Crabtree is a freak of nature!
“[T]here’s no real separation between the top players at each position.” This can be stated with certainty?
C’mon, that’s ridiculous! Who knows?
I hope like hell they finally institutionalize a friggin’ rookie contract cap. We can’t have true “parity” if the teams at the bottom of the standings get screwed over every year at the top of the draft.
You never know, someone may really want a guy like Jeremy Maclin or BJ Raji enough to trade up. It seems like after Raji, there aren’t many other impact DTs. But then the marijuana allegations could make that interesting. I’m sure someone will trade up and reaches for a player. The Jags did it last year with Derrick Harvey.
Agreed, right now a guy like Jamarcus Russell is essentially handcuffing what the Raiders will be able to do with his salary cap number. Look at Jake Long and Ryan Clady, in terms of play and production there is no significant difference between the two, yet one has the largest contract any OL player has ever signed and the other has a very manageable number that will help his team for years to come.
Dear GM Gene Smith,
Let your time expire. Make a pick when it’s worth the money.
“Third, there’s no real separation between the top players at each
position… Ditto for the tackles and the quarterbacks.”
While I agree with you on the WRs I couldnt disagree with you more by putting OT in the same category. The difference between the top 4 (Smith, Monroe, Oher, Smith) and the players likely to be available in the 20s (Britton + Beatty) is night and day.
After watching Britton’s footwork drills during the draft I wonder how he gets through daily life without falling over on himself.
Something has to be done. This is crap. If I was a GM I would get out for anything reasonable. This has to stop. Rookie cap NOW.
A team can pass on a pick. it can pass on all picks.
Give NFL players a 2 round draft and real “contracts” and they would gladly accept a rookie wage scale and Larry Bird rule salary cap.
I’m just wondering if the teams have to offer a player a certain amount. I understand that if the teams just decide to offer a player a reasonable contract it’s likely they will hold out…but is that worse than giving some guy $20 million in up front money just to have them under preform?
The NFL MUST change the rookie wage structure. Players should earn their money. What a joke to guarantee tens of millions to a player who might totally suck? You gotta prove yo self, son!
Actually Crabtree is worth 20 million more than Nicks. That guy is just on another level.
Guess what.. You’ve just discovered what the Pats have been doing for the past eight years..
and now that everyone understands how it works now, they should be able to change the rookie salaries back to respectable numbers..
It’s not so much a wage scale that’s needed – it just needs to be more performance-based and less guaranteed money.
I am playing the worlds smallest violin for those teams that don’t know how to draft. I have no sympathy for any of these teams. None.
The whining is absolutely pathetic.
“Yet in the end, it’s all predicting. How can one say that there isn’t a $20 million difference between Michael Crabtree and Hakeem Nicks. Crabtree is a freak of nature!”
Florio is a Viking’s Homer and the Vikings have been linked to Nicks, therefore making Nicks one of the better players in this draft.
More Vikings Homerism from Florio!
If multiple teams start passing on picks then it would make for amazing television. Imagine: a line of guys in suits with stacks of 3″x5″ cards elbowing each other waiting for either Jason Smith or Eugene Monroe to get taken so their team can draft the other one.
This is ridiculous. In the past I could never imagine anyone wanting to pass on the #1 pick.
How close does it seem we are to a rookie wage system that is obviously needed. Sure the players and union dont want that but give me a break, we all know how ridiclous these salaries are and how having a top 10 pick is more of a punishment these days.
The Nfl is too concerned with money, these are real life people, not just numbers and dollar figures, every player is different and gm in the league are starting to lose the human quality that is needed to be successful
ex. Ted Thompson doesnt show any interest in his players and it shows on the field, and he only tries to get really good deals on players and talent instead of getting the best players in the league for a few more millions per year
The Saints traded up to get DT Johnathan Sullivan in the ’03 draft. That didn’t work out too well.
First of all, why would any team want to trade into the top 10 until that specific spot is on the clock during the draft??
I can understand not wanting to trade into the top 3, but the money for the #8 pick isn’t totally ridiculous.
Question: What would happen if multiple teams decided to pass on making a decision at their spot in the top 10 and decided to take a player later. How would that affect the draft, because if I don’t want to overpay for an unproven player
crohrbaugh says:
April 13th, 2009 at 4:40 pm
Why on earth would the Chiefs want to trade down instead of taking Aaron Curry??
———————
Because they are switching to a 3/4 and need more of a DE/OLB hybrid, hence the pickup of Mike Vrabel.
PITTSCRUB STEELERS SUCK
I’m still waiting to hear the rip on Belichick for not getting a 1st and 3rd for Cassel. Show me a player that is worth it, geniuses.
The Draft is approaching a dangerous time where all of the top five may decide to sit on their picks. I don’t think it will happen this year, but it could happen some time soon. I wouldn’t be surprised to see early teams “reach” to get guys projected later in the first signed at reasonable contracts. They may slightly overspend for a guy (i.e. pay a 25 pick 20 pick money and take him at 10). I don’t see this as anything but a win-win for that player. Agents will throw fits over this, but I don’t like lawyers, and it would make me laugh.
People are suggesting that a team should pass on their pick if they want to “slide down” and spend less… but that’s a surefire way to end up with a holdout on your hands.
The agent will [i]demand[/i] the “slot” of your original pick position. That tactic is a one-way ticket to training camp holdout hell.
I agree it would make for great television if multiple teams started passing on their picks. A rookie wage scale is long over-due and if this brings it to a head; so much the better.
Show me the production at this level and THEN I’ll show you the $.
Several points:
1. The numbers in the top 3 are slightly out-of-whack with performance based on historical success rate, but players who hit in the top 5 often turn out to be bargains. Larry Fitzgerald signed the infamous 4 year $40 million deal with Arizona to buy out the remainder of his rookie contract, but Fitz would have commanded significantly more on the open market.
2. Over the length of a 5 year deal, Michael Crabtree IS $20 million better than Hakeem Nicks. Crabtree presents much more potential reward and much less potential risk than Nicks. Those are the most important factors in terms of assessing value. This is the kind of example that makes Florio look foolish.
3. You can pass on your pick, but you can’t apply the MLB strategy of drafting a lower rated guy in order to pay less as a previous poster suggested. The NFL rookie salary pool makes this effectively impossible. (This came into play several years ago when the Cardinals drafted two players close together in the first round and threatened to pay the first one who signed more money. It didn’t work, and simply can’t because of the slotting system.) You can attempt to significantly lowball the player, but the team would never successfully sign the guy, essentially wasting a valuable commodity.
Desperate to trade their pick? HARDLY, the Broncos have been reported to have been wearing the Jags phone out to try and trade to land Sanchez (remember, they traded away their QB.) Cmon Florio, this is a reach to try to trash the Jaguars here…try as you might THEY WILL NOT BE MOVING TO L.A. Get over it already!!!
Can’t Andre Smith be considered this draft’s “bell cow?” He clearly has the udders for it.
You’re right, the only difference between the 5th and the 15th picks are the expectations for a higher pick. Maybe that’s why so many guys picked early have flamed out early lately: They don’t suck, but they can’t meet expectations.