Ted Sundquist’s AFC South Draft Needs

[Editor’s note: Former Broncos G.M. Ted Sundquist will be looking at the primary needs of each NFL team, by division. The AFC South appears below.] The AFC South could very well be one of the most competitive divisions in pro football. Jacksonville slipped to sub-.500 ball in ’08, but Tennessee and Indy both secured playoff berths and Houston came on strong the second half to finish at 8-8. Stability within the division remains fairly constant, even with a change at head coach for the Colts. It helped that Jim Caldwell was promoted from within, and very little should change at Lucas Oil Field. The Texans and Jags are in the top half of the draft and within striking distance of some difference makers. The Titans and Colts will have to wait on the back end and watch their board “peel off” over the course of the first round. Just two years ago the South had three double-digit win teams and Houston finished 4th at 8-8. A little early help for all four might just elevate these rivals even higher in ’09. Houston Texans Primary Need: Outside Linebacker Defense plagued the Texans for most of 2008, so much so that coaching jobs were lost as a result. It’s not as if Houston hasn’t addressed this problem over the past few seasons. The additions of first-round choices Mario Williams and Amobi Okoye, along with top-of-the-second linebacker Demeco Ryans has established a firm foundation for a young squad. But the Texans still were struck by opponents on the ground at a rate placing them 30th in the League, via Football Outsider stats. There’s a strong need to firm up the inside seven and the addition of a playmaking outside linebacker could be just what new Defensive Coordinator Frank Bush gets as a “shower gift”. This most certainly would help Bush improve on second and third down rushes, where opponents pounded out yardage at a clip ranking the Texans 31st on both downs. Wake Forest’s Aaron Curry is seen as the cream of this year’s linebacker crop, but there still will be a few interesting prospects for G.M. Rick Smith to choose from. Possible targets: Linebacker Brian Cushing (USC), linebacker Ashlee Palmer (Mississippi), linebacker Clay Matthews (USC). Indianapolis Colts Primary Need: Defensive Tackle Instability probably best describes the interior of Indy’s defensive line. In Indy, “starting defensive tackle” hasn’t been a tag that’s ensured longevity. G.M. Bill Polian will hope to find some additional bulk inside to help out new defensive coordinator Larry Coyer’s attack-style scheme. Breaking down Indy with an emphasis on run defense showed that the Colts were suspect to inside runs and power situations (ranking 27th & 30th, respectively). The Colts surrendered 100-yard games in three of their four regular season losses and the Chargers’ Darren Sproles tacked on 105 of his own in San Diego’s wildcard-round upset of Indianapolis. Movement is the key to blending with Dwight Freeney and company, but girth will be a premium as well. Mississippi’s Peria Jerry has all the athleticism you look for but was only 290 lbs at his Pro Day. Still, that’s 25 pounds more than last year’s starter, Eric Foster. Possible targets: defensive tackle Fili Moala (USC), defensive tackle Ziggy Hood (Missouri), defensive tackle Peria Jerry (Mississippi). Jacksonville Jaguars The Jacksonville Jaguars fell hard from the ranks of the contenders in ’08. The Jags went minus-6 in win differential and long-time personnel man Gene Smith was promoted to G.M. Smith has a number of holes to fill but none more glaring than at cornerback. The Jags ranked 30th on all passing downs and 26th in total defense (F.O. rankings). The D-Line was respectable in its sack rate on opponents, but the secondary struggled to all year and finished dead last in the League on 3rd down. Look for Smith to focus on rebuilding the defensive backfield with a shutdown presence. Picking at #8 could allow them to land Ohio State’s Malcolm Jenkins, but many have him converted to safety on their boards. Don’t be surprised if the Jags were to reach on Wake Forest’s Alphonso Smith. Though not the prototypical size for the position, Smith has the all-important return ability and tremendous ball skills (21 interceptions & 40 passes defended in his career). The guy just makes plays. This goes in the face of conventional wisdom, since Vontae Davis of Illinois is the superior athlete and measures as the safer pick. Possible targets: defensive back Malcolm Jenkins (Ohio State); cornerback Alphonso Smith (Wake Forest); cornerback Vontae Davis (Illinois). Tennessee Titans Primary Need: Wide Receiver Having worked with the Titans’ Mike Heimerdinger in the past, I can tell you where his vote will be. Quarterback Kerry Collins stepped in and stabilized a passing game that was struggling under Vince Young. Collins improved the third-down ranking to a respectable 14th and midway (16th) overall. Justin Gage was the highest-rated Titans receiver at 31, but his 46% catch rate is hardly what you’d call consistent. Justin McCareins hauled in 30 passes at a 42% clip. The leading receiver was tight end Bo Scaife, and Heimerdinger and head coach Jeff Fisher will look to bolster the unit and give Collins some targets in return for his own efforts. Though picking 30th in return for a solid ’08 season, this isn’t such a bad year to be needing a receiver. There are plenty to choose from and the Titans should still be staring at a productive player at the bottom of the round. Darrius Heyward-Bey of Maryland has the size and speed combo the Titans have coveted in the past. Possible targets: receiver Percy Harvin (Florida); receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey (Maryland); receiver Hakeem Nicks (North Carolina). *Note – All team and individual rankings are per Football Outsiders’ DVOA statistical analysis, not final League ranks.