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Punters off to big start indoors, in good weather

Indianapolis Colts rookie Pat McAfee is off to a big start this season, contributing to the Colts’ special teams both as a punter and on kickoffs.

He was a big factor,” Colts coach Jim Caldwell said after the Colts beat the 49ers, per Len Pasquarelli of ESPN.com. “We needed everything he gave us.”

McAfee is looking like a good pick for the Colts in the seventh round of this year’s draft, but in pointing out his good start, it should also be pointed out that he’s been kicking indoors or in good weather outside.

Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders points that out in noting that Pasquarelli’s larger thesis — that punters around the league are on pace for a historically great year — is flawed. Punters are on pace to have better numbers than in seasons past because punters regularly put up better numbers in the first half of the season than they do in the second. When bad weather hits in November and December, punting numbers go down.

In fact, Schatz pointed out the same issues two years ago, when Pasquarelli wrote a similar piece on punters being off to big starts. A story about kickers being on pace to have a great season could be written in early November of every season. And then those same kickers will fall off that pace when the winter winds start whipping their kicks around.

So, yes, Pat McAfee is a good-looking rookie for the Colts. But a punter’s performance through half of a season shouldn’t be taken as part of a larger trend.

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21 Responses to “Punters off to big start indoors, in good weather”
  1. thehoodedone says: Nov 5, 2009 11:42 AM

    Same can be said for QBs who’s last name is Manning.

  2. birdmancometh says: Nov 5, 2009 11:52 AM

    It doesn’t take statistical analysis from FO to understand this. What is wrong with the sports media? Is it shortening deadlines? Laziness? I mean seriously…oh and guess what, the Saints aren’t the best team ever and the Bucs aren’t the worst team ever.

  3. txtumbleweed says: Nov 5, 2009 11:55 AM

    He wasn’t even the best punter on the field. Andy Lee was the main reason the 49ers kept the score close!
    Beyond an aggressive defense, and San Francisco’s ability to stymie the potent Indianapolis offense in the red zone, the 49ers led through three quarters in large part because of the efforts of six-year veteran Andy Lee, fourth in the league in gross average (48.0) and third in net average (41.8 yards).

  4. Cornerdenizen says: Nov 5, 2009 12:08 PM

    yeah, we got it, Florio. You hate Lynn Pasquarelli because he basically called you a fraud so you’ll take any opportunity to discredit him–even with some incredibly stupid item like this one.
    got it.

  5. Citizen Strange says: Nov 5, 2009 12:10 PM

    The Statistical Wreck of the Colts Punter Pat McAfee
    When punting indoors – a great start to be sure
    Better than those who have come before him
    But his average was screwed and the his punts were all pooched
    When the gales of November came early

  6. Leviathan says: Nov 5, 2009 12:25 PM

    ….except in Dallas, where just as Mike Florio predicted, punt after punt keeps smacking into the damn video board requiring story after story on how this was going to be a season stopper.

  7. Tyler says: Nov 5, 2009 12:27 PM

    Colts fans can compare McAfee to Hunter Smith. Or his kickoffs to Vinatieri’s.
    thehoodedone – Look at Manning’s down the stretch stats of the past years!

  8. Bill Cowher's Chin says: Nov 5, 2009 12:36 PM

    I agree with thehoodedone, Pat McAfee isnt the only Colt benefiting from playing indoors/great weather……..

  9. workhorse says: Nov 5, 2009 12:40 PM

    You do know that the only indoor games for the Colts have been @ Arizona and @ St Louis, right?

  10. birdmancometh says: Nov 5, 2009 12:49 PM

    Yeah, you guys are right. Peyton Manning is only good because he plays in a dome…
    Do you people even like football? Ever seen a real game? The man is the best QB to ever play the game. In a time where everything gets labeled as either the “greatest” or “worst” way too often; Peyton Manning is the one person that deserves such a label. He is the best QB to ever live.

  11. ppdoc13 says: Nov 5, 2009 12:54 PM

    it’s len pastabelly that’s the fraud. when is the last time you saw an article of any consequence from the fat man?

  12. TrueFan says: Nov 5, 2009 2:10 PM

    Yeah, we got it “Cornerdenizen”
    You hate Florio because he is not only a graduate of Law school, a lawyer but also a successful business man.
    So you sit in your Mom’s basement and write posts on every site that will allow you to post your diatribe because you think you’re smarter than everyone else.
    Even on stupid posts like this one.
    Yeah, we got it.

  13. Leo Crow says: Nov 5, 2009 2:16 PM

    Which is why Moorman will always be better than Lechler, Scifres, Lee, etc.!

  14. Bill Cowher's Chin says: Nov 5, 2009 2:42 PM

    # birdmancometh says: November 5, 2009 12:49 PM
    Yeah, you guys are right. Peyton Manning is only good because he plays in a dome…
    Do you people even like football? Ever seen a real game? The man is the best QB to ever play the game. In a time where everything gets labeled as either the “greatest” or “worst” way too often; Peyton Manning is the one person that deserves such a label. He is the best QB to ever live.
    _________________________________
    I am certainly not discrediting Manning as a player, he is a phenomenal QB. I am simply saying, that year after year, there is a player, Manning this year, and Brees last year, etc, that put up big yardage numbers. “They are going to challenge Marinos record”, etc. But they play in a dome, Marino played outside. I admit Miami isnt like Buffalo or New England in December, but it isnt in a dome either.
    One last thing, workhorse, you do realize that Lucas Oil is an indoor facility right? Just because the roof is open when it is 75 and sunny, doesnt mean anything. When the weather turns, the roof will be closed……….

  15. bian8 says: Nov 5, 2009 3:04 PM

    There were comments made about how when the roof was open wind was swirling around in there. Peyton still threw for 300+ yards and Macaffee still punted above avergae. And Tyler are you talking about last year when Mannings numbers got better and better as the weeks went on and it earned him an MVP? Or are you talking about how in previous years when the Colts had such a lead in their division they sat Peyton the last two games and didnt throw as much?

  16. thehoodedone says: Nov 5, 2009 3:15 PM

    @tyler.
    I have. Thus the comment.
    The greatest QB of all time stuff kills me. Favre has better numbers and has played in 2 superbowls. How can Manning possibly be the best? Let’s look at some undeniable facts. Manning has played in the same offensive system his entire career. Manning plays in a dome. Manning has been surrounded by first round picks (chosen by one of the greatest talent evaluators ever)at WR, RB, TE and LT. Manning has played in 1 SB. G.O.A.T my A.S.S. But why let facts get in the way of blind worship.

  17. KingJoe! says: Nov 5, 2009 3:26 PM

    Also good news for punters is Bette Midler is doing one at Caesars, get you tickets now.

  18. Silverbacker says: Nov 5, 2009 3:26 PM

    Excellent post, Mr. Smith.

  19. Cornerdenizen says: Nov 5, 2009 3:56 PM

    @ True Fan:
    Wow. If that post got under your skin, you should check out the one under the Bob Sanders item..
    You’re way off about me and Florio. He– like every other media outlet– just needs to be reminded that not everyone is an idiot.
    And I have my own basement, thank you.
    You’re absolutely right about one thing though. I shouldn’t be wasting my time on this site.

  20. birdmancometh says: Nov 5, 2009 4:34 PM

    hood -
    I find it hard to believe that someone so sure of themselves would skip over the fact that Favre has played for seven more years than Manning.
    At 3,500 yards a year, you can go ahead and post another 24,500 yards. I’m too lazy to look it up, but i’m pretty sure that would put Manning right up there with Brett.

  21. thehoodedone says: Nov 6, 2009 10:06 AM

    @birdmancometh
    I was stating facts not wild assumptions or wishful thinking. As much as I hate to admit it, BrettFavre’s longevity and durability at the QB position is unprecedented. To assume Manning will beat that record is foolhardy and to call him the greatest of all time at this point in his career shows a complete lack of respect for the men who have actually done that to which Manning aspires.

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