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There's something fishy about the Pats-Fins game

Several days ago, multiple readers told us of a discussion on WEEI in Boston regarding the point spread for Week 13’s Patriots-Dolphins game.

Apparently, the thing was moving in the direction of the Dolphins, prompting speculation that Tom Brady possibly wasn’t removed from Monday night’s loss to the Saints because coach Bill Belichick opted not to take a shot at a comeback for the ages, but because he’s hurt.

We didn’t mention it at the time, in large part because Danny Sheridan’s line at USA Today had moved only on one-half point, from the Pats being favored by 6.5 to 6.

But now, one of our most loyal and astute readers, who has done more than enough to secure a free PFT subscription for himself and his heirs, points out that BetUS.com has now taken the game off the board.

We’ve done some more sleuthing.  At BetED.com, one of the lines listed in the Las Vegas Review Journal, the Pats-Dolphins game also can’t be found.  Ditto for Logans.com.

At SportsBetting.com, Miami is now only getting 3 points.

And Sheridan’s line has moved to 4

As we’ve explained in the past, the line is aimed only at ensuring that, when the game starts, equal dollars will have been wagered on each team.  That way, the house generates its profit from the 11-to-10 ratio that typically applies to the winning wagers.

The line moves toward one team when a disproportionate amount of money is being placed on the other team.  And it keeps moving until it reaches a point where the betting is equalized.

In this specific case, something apparently is causing a lot of gamblers to think that the Dolphins are going to win the game, since in the opinion of several of the folks who determine the point spreads nothing is correcting the heavy betting trend toward Miami.

We’re mentioning this not because we care about the gambling angle — we don’t.  But we realize that many of you do, and we also are intrigued by the possibility that someone has gotten their hands on inside information not reflected on the New England injury report.

For Patriots coach Bill Belichick, it’s a matter of strategic advantage.  For the NFL, however, it’s an issue that potentially undermines the integrity of the game.

And it’s another reason why the league staunchly will oppose any efforts to further legalize gambling.  With legal sports betting comes accountability, both as to the quality of the game officials and as to the quality of the information provided prior to the games regarding the health status of the players.  Eventually, Commissioner Roger Goodell would be sitting once again before the House Judiciary Committee explaining why the officials aren’t full-time employees and/or why the injury report doesn’t consistently include full information as to the status of all injured players.

In this case, only the health — or lack thereof — of quarterback Tom Brady would move the line so dramatically that multiple services would drop the game completely.  So we’ll be watching this game more closely than we otherwise would have been following it today.

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27 Responses to “There's something fishy about the Pats-Fins game”
  1. Igottz5onit says: Dec 6, 2009 7:52 AM

    Who was the “loyal and astute reader”?

  2. Fan of Football says: Dec 6, 2009 7:53 AM

    THE SHARPS ARE MOVING ON MIMAMI. OMG!

  3. shamalamadingdong says: Dec 6, 2009 7:55 AM

    Obviously they heard Matt Light was starting today.

  4. LovinBlue says: Dec 6, 2009 8:03 AM

    Belichick doing something to negatively impact the integrity of the game? I’m SHOCKED!

  5. HarrisonHits says: Dec 6, 2009 8:10 AM

    Days old news. The game was off the Vegas boards on Wednesday or Thursday. Usually you’re not so far behind on the curve.

  6. Deus Irae says: Dec 6, 2009 8:12 AM

    Brady’s finger was on the Friday injury report

  7. shamalamadingdong says: Dec 6, 2009 8:17 AM

    LovinBlue says:
    December 6, 2009 8:03 AM
    Belichick doing something to negatively impact the integrity of the game? I’m SHOCKED!
    Time it would take for a post on the Belichick/integrity of the game comment, also taken off BetUS.com board

  8. jamaicamecrazy says: Dec 6, 2009 8:18 AM

    Yes something is fishy. The Pats should be favored by 7-10 points if Brady is healthy because the Dolphins have found so many ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory this season.
    If Hoyer has to play because Brady is hurt then who will be the “emergency” Quarterback be for the Pats since they decided that they only needed 2 Quarterbacks?

  9. TheDPR says: Dec 6, 2009 8:18 AM

    How about advocating full time league doctors, rather than team doctors? If you’re going to advocate full time officials, why not full-time league doctors?

  10. Deus Irae says: Dec 6, 2009 8:19 AM

    Brady’s finger was listed on the Friday injury report so what exactly did Belichick do wrong?

  11. blackglass says: Dec 6, 2009 8:31 AM

    Um, Brady was listed with a finger injury as probable. If he doesn’t start today, well, one time Michael Vick was listed as probable and Matt Schaub ended up starting against the Patriots. Bill Belichick has a very long memory…
    Actually, Lovin Blue, Belichick holds the NFL’s integrity in the highest regard, which is why he didn’t tell the world about all the other teams filming signals like he was. Stupid comment from a stupid person…no suprise.

  12. PatPatriotRules says: Dec 6, 2009 8:45 AM

    you people here are such hypocrites….you will do anything to stir up something that seems illeagal…expecialy you you hack florio…& who is this joke of a secret “loyal” reader ?? Is his name deep throat ? i mean come on….anything to trash the pats when they are down i guess…you jealous pukes

  13. JIM says: Dec 6, 2009 9:04 AM

    The pATS AND THEIR FANS ARE USELESS DIRTBAGS

  14. Bob S. says: Dec 6, 2009 9:06 AM

    belichick threw the indy game.
    belichick didnt try to lose close in saints game.
    belichick wanted to win the over/under in the tennessee game and was forced to by himself and brady 59-0 because collins was so bad.
    once vegas did NOT carry lines for the kc chiefs

  15. getagrip says: Dec 6, 2009 9:14 AM

    The Dolphins couldn’t stop Ryan freakin’ Fitzpatrick. I don’t think they’ll suddenly learn how to play defense against Tom Brady’s backup.

  16. RexRyan'sStressedLapband says: Dec 6, 2009 9:19 AM

    Yeah, there’s something fishy about this game. As in the Pats lost last week’s game, and the Pats never lose back to back games. As a Dolphins fan, this makes me nervous.
    @ PatPatriotRules:
    Are you fking kidding me? Really? “anything to trash the pats when they are down?” Those poor poor Patriots, they are always the victims. They don’t do it to themselves by getting caught cheating or spending the fourth quarter running the score up or having a QB who thinks when he points flags fly. You’re just like any other NE fan: uneducated (as in did a 2nd grader type your comment), classless, and completely delusional.

  17. BernardBerrianTheLeague says: Dec 6, 2009 9:20 AM

    Actually, Vegas found out that the Dolphins are going with the Orange jerseys.

  18. Whatever897 says: Dec 6, 2009 9:35 AM

    You people kill me… you come here and complain about the ‘hack’ writers, but you always seem to take plenty of time to read the articles and then comment on them. Seems to me like the ‘hacks’ are writing something you’re interested in. Or… are you only interested when they’re trashing teams other than the Patriots?

  19. HarrisonHits says: Dec 6, 2009 9:50 AM

    “If Hoyer has to play because Brady is hurt then who will be the “emergency” Quarterback be for the Pats since they decided that they only needed 2 Quarterbacks? ”
    Last week it was Edelman, but since he’s out ……. damn where’s Troy Brown when ya need him !

  20. penguininbondage says: Dec 6, 2009 9:52 AM

    They move the line to get the other half betting moron.

  21. 8man says: Dec 6, 2009 10:04 AM

    Brady will play. And he historically has struggled against the Dolphins, including being shut out 21-0 in Miami in 2006.
    Seems to me that the betters are just doing their homework and think the spread was too large. That explains the movement.
    But the game coming off the board indicates that the bookies aren’t convinced that Brady will play and thus don’t want to back a game with that sort of uncertainty.
    I think the right line for this game, with Brady playing is Pats -3.5.

  22. Iggles103 says: Dec 6, 2009 10:23 AM

    Back to back road trips on a short week with a defense that got carved up like a warm loaf of bread. I like it if Brady is healthy.
    Bonus pick: Washington easily covers and might win the trap game of all traps

  23. leatherneck says: Dec 6, 2009 10:36 AM

    It would be hilarious if the Patriots unleashed a highly effective Wildcat offense on the Dolphins.

  24. shamalamadingdong says: Dec 6, 2009 10:45 AM

    Whatever897 says:
    December 6, 2009 9:35 AM
    You people kill me… you come here and complain about the ‘hack’ writers, but you always seem to take plenty of time to read the articles and then comment on them. Seems to me like the ‘hacks’ are writing something you’re interested in.
    Patriot fans reading Patriot stories. Sounds about right to me.
    Or… are you only interested when they’re trashing teams other than the Patriots?
    And you’re commenting on this thread to prove your own point?
    Brilliant.

  25. Wayne Z says: Dec 6, 2009 10:54 AM

    The 11/10 ratio does not apply to winning wagers. It applies to losing bets.

  26. BonnieD says: Dec 6, 2009 11:12 AM

    Actually this is a really interesting article that raises a lot of important questions. It makes up for some of the other garbage you post, Florio.
    Not only do we need to know why Belicheat didn’t disclose the injury. We need to know how come the bookies types knew about it before everyone else did.
    This guy is dirty and he is NOT a “genius” as some say. At least not at football.

  27. JustBornFlorio says: Dec 7, 2009 1:24 PM

    jamaicamecrazy says:
    December 6, 2009 8:18 AM
    Yes something is fishy. The Pats should be favored by 7-10 points if Brady is healthy because the Dolphins have found so many ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory this season.
    If Hoyer has to play because Brady is hurt then who will be the “emergency” Quarterback be for the Pats since they decided that they only needed 2 Quarterbacks?
    _________
    Yow wanna retract that? LMFAO!!!!

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