There are so many ways to measure how crazy the AFC wild card playoff picture is heading into the final week and how dangerous it is to assume anything. Consider:
1. There could still be an eight-way tie at 8-8.
2. The Jaguars, even after their loss Sunday, are technically still alive for the fifth seed. The Dolphins also remain barely alive at 7-8.
3. Only one of eight AFC wild card contenders were eliminated this week: the Titans.
While there are a lot of confusing scenarios, we know this much: the Ravens and Jets are both in the playoffs with victories in Week Seventeen.
The Broncos are in the best position after that. If Denver beats Kansas City at home, the Broncos just need two other things to happen.
The Broncos need the Ravens or Jets to lose, and need to not finish in a two-way tie with the Steelers for the final spot; Pittsburgh beat them head-to-head. If it’s a three or four way tie, Denver’s superior conference record would take over.
The Broncos, then, are in the odd position of wanting the 8-7 Texans to win because Houston could negate Pittsburgh’s advantage over Denver in a head-to-head tiebreaker.
Got all that?
UPDATE: The Broncos are the only wild card contender that could lose and still possibly make the playoffs.
Here are their official scenarios. Get a win and . . .
1) Steelers, Ravens, Texans and Jags all lose
2) Steelers, Ravens, Texans and Jets all lose
3) Steelers, Ravens, Jags and Jets all lose
4) Steelers, Texans, Jags and Jets all lose
5) Dolphins and Jags lose or tie and Jets, Ravens and Texans lose
Note: If Broncos lose they can still get in if the Steelers plus three of Ravens, Texans, Jags and Jets lose. If Broncos lose and Steelers win then the Broncos are in if the Dolphins, Jags, Jets, Ravens and Texans all lose.