Jags land Kampman

NFL_kampman_usa.jpgFinally, we can stop worrying about whether defensive end Aaron Kampman ever will make it to Philly.

He won't.

Michael C. Wright of the Florida Times-Union reports that Kampman has agreed to terms with the Jaguars.

The deal came after midnight (ET); length and terms aren't yet available.

And so the Jags are two-for-two in free agency.  They brought in Kampman and Kassim Osgood, and they signed both of them.

The fact that they pursued Kampman so heavily confirms that their effort to upgrade the pass rush via the first two rounds of the 2008 draft have to date failed; Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves have not delivered on their quarterback-sacking potential.

This tends to prove our point that, if a guy who has proven that he can play at the NFL level is available via restricted free agency, he should be pursued even if it means giving up a couple of chances at the NFL's annual rookie crapshoot.

Still, whether Kampman is the answer remains to be seen.  He was a bust in Green Bay's 3-4 attack last year, and a torn ACL could limit him in Year One.

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Rosenthal's Super Bowl pick

We picked our Super Bowl teams back in late May for the PFT Season Preview.  I remember narrowing down my candidates by using two simple, if flawed factors. 

1. Which quarterback/passing game did I trust?   Offense is simply more consistent than defense.  It's not impossible to win without a great passing game, but it's very tough.  And it's far less predictable.

The teams that best passed this test: New England, Indianapolis, San Diego, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Dallas, and New Orleans. 

2. My other factor: Who had a good chance to get a bye in the playoffs because of their schedule and division?  You can make the Super Bowl without a bye, but it's a lot harder to do.

The Patriots, Steelers, and Cowboys' schedule knocked them out here.  An NFC team didn't leap out as the clear winner, but I like Atlanta to win 11 games and challenge the Saints for the NFC South crown.  That left Green Bay in the NFC.

As my NBC playoff predictions show, I think the Vikings could fall right out of the playoffs.  It won't be a popular opinion, but I see a graying roster, mediocre defense, miserable looking quarterback, and a latent but potent team-wide distaste for a shaky head coach.  I don't see the NFC North being close.

In the months since I made that pick, the Packers have become the consensus pick to win it all. (This makes me sick because I hate picking that team.  It means they probably won't make it and that anyone smart enough to play the prediction odds should avoid taking them now. I still like the pick anyhow.  Even though I also picked them last year.) 

In the AFC, the Chargers and Colts were left.  I picked the Chargers because Philip Rivers deserves the recognition Drew Brees got last year and it will happen one of these years.  He's that good. Their pass rush has me more worried than I was in May, but the decision was made.  There's no debating the Chargers schedule ranks easiest among division favorites.

San Diego has plenty of issues, but they should get a vastly upgraded running game, and taking Antonio Cromartie out of their secondary was addition by subtraction from all accounts. 

Both the Chargers and Packers will have to blow teams away on offense because their defenses have soft spots.  Sort of like the Colts and Saints in 2009.

We're living in a golden age of quarterbacks and a Super Bowl victory by the Packers over the Chargers would help point it out.  Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers aren't Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, but they don't need to be. They are ready to write their own legacy.

Packers 31, Chargers 24.

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Dan Hampton to apologize, again

As it turns out, Hall of Fame defensive tackle Dan Hampton's ill-advised Hurricane Katrina comment wasn't the only remark that caused discomfort for the Pro Football Weekly television program.

In the same show, Hampton said that the Dallas Cowboys are "more of the 'Brokeback' variety if you know what I'm talking about."

The Gay and Lesbian Alliance Against Defamation has requested an apology, explaining that "Hampton telegraphed to his audience that gay men are not good enough, just as he doesn't believe the Dallas Cowboys are good enough." 

PFW publisher Hub Arkush has told GLAAD that Hampton will lead the next installment of the show by apologizing for both statements.  Arkush also told AfterElton.com that "we deplore discrimination and bigotry aimed at any and all racial, ethnic and social groups and communities, and Dan's comment about the Cowboys is totally unacceptable and will not be repeated or ignored."  In the same e-mail to AfterElton.com, Arkush explained that PFW experience "horror" as a result of the "discomfort caused" by the Katrina remark.

So Hampton in one show said something that PFW finds "totally unacceptable" and something else that caused "horror" for the publication.  And Hampton will be on the air for the next edition of the show, delivering back-to-back apologies.  And the Pro Football Weekly television show will probably generate record ratings.  And Hampton will say "I'm sorry" and he'll promise not to screw up again.  And, presumably, he'll continue to appear on the show with no suspension.

Apparently, PFW is gleaning its P.R. advice from old Steve Martin routines.

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Revis's return highlights "Hard Knocks" finale

The news of the week for the New York Jets was the arrival of cornerback Darrelle Revis, who ended his holdout and signed a new contract. The final episode of Hard Knocks: Training Camp with the New York Jets offered some insight into how that holdout ended.

It ended, as we already knew, when Jets coach Rex Ryan and owner Woody Johnson flew to Florida for a personal visit with Revis. But we didn't know just how frustrated Ryan was as he began to prepare for what he seemed to think would be a regular-season opener without Revis on the roster.

"It's a f--king joke," Ryan said of Revis refusing to agree to the Jets' terms. "Three years left on a f--king contract."

Eventually Revis signed and Ryan was happy. But Hard Knocks is at its best when dealing not with stars like Revis, but with marginal players who are fighting for a roster spot. As always, the show featured plenty of brutally candid assessments of such players.

Rookie linebacker Cory Reamer, who was a starter on Alabama's national championship team last season, was used as an example of the difference between college and pro football. In a meeting of the Jets' coaches, it was pointed out that Reamer was a star on Saturday but can't hack it on Sunday because "the men play on Sunday."

And when Rex Ryan saw Brashton Satele make a mistake, he spat out, "Look at this f--king kid doesn't even know where to line up."

Those candid assessments lead to the most painful part of Hard Knocks: When players are told they're being cut. For many of these young men, the NFL Films cameras are capturing their dreams being shattered.

"We can't keep everybody," Ryan said told the team. "That's the nature of this business."

What Hard Knocks does so extraordinarily well is give football fans an up close and personal view of the nature of the business.

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MDS's Super Bowl pick

The Indianapolis Colts will get their second Super Bowl title in five years in February, and they'll do it by beating the first team ever to play a Super Bowl on its home field.

Peyton Manning will lead the Colts to the Super Bowl again this season, but instead of throwing a game-changing interception as he did in Super Bowl XLIV against the Saints, he'll deliver a Super Bowl MVP-caliber performance against the Cowboys in Super Bowl XLV at Cowboys Stadium on February 6.

As long as Manning is healthy, the Colts are assured of being one of the best teams in the league. It's almost absurd that in a league where fans head into every season thinking anything can happen, the Colts have won 12 or more games in seven straight seasons, with Manning being one of the best players in football every single year. But there's no reason to doubt that the Colts will do it again this year.

There are more reasons to doubt the Cowboys, who feel like a risky pick while the Colts feel like a safe one. But I like the Cowboys' offensive firepower so much that I'm picking them to earn home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, and I like the Cowboys' defense just enough to see them not blowing the two NFC playoff games they'll play in Dallas.

I don't like their defense enough to beat the Colts, though. The Colts will have the NFL's best offense, and they'll leave the Cowboys in their dust in the Super Bowl. 

In the end, the story of the 2010 season and 2011 postseason will be Manning. He'll continue to play at his consistently, almost boringly, great level during the regular season. And after two weeks of "Will he choke again?" questions in the lead-up to the Super Bowl, he'll get his second ring.

Unless he throws the Super Bowl away in the fourth quarter once again. In which case he'll be labeled a choker. And I'll be the fool who confidently proclaimed in early September that Manning would play a great game on a grand stage at Super Bowl XLV.

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Silva's Super Bowl pick

My Super Bowl XLV pick has been Baltimore-Green Bay since May, and the ensuing months have provided few reasons to waver.

The Packers' offense has the look of an indefensible juggernaut.  23-year-old Jermichael Finley, who led Green Bay in receiving yards, touchdowns, and pass targets in the final eight games of last season, will be the most productive tight end in football if he stays healthy.  Aaron Rodgers doesn't miss, and his protection is improved with the return to health of tackles Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher, complemented by the first-round selection of 2009 Big Ten Offensive Lineman of the Year Bryan Bulaga.  With Rodgers given more time to throw, Greg Jennings will dominate deep as Finley, Donald Driver, and James Jones control the seams and underneath game.

The defense has question marks in the secondary, but reinforcements are on the way in the form of stalwart cornerback Al Harris and hard-hitting safety Atari Bigby, both eligible for return from the PUP list in Week Seven.  Back-four shortcomings will be made less apparent by an improved pass rush.  Outside linebackers Clay Matthews and Brad Jones are bound for advancement in their second years.  New nose tackle B.J. Raji can also collapse the pocket, and Green Bay already has the run-stopping part down, having led the league in rush defense last season.

An underrated development to Green Bay's preseason was the emergence of No. 2 tailback Brandon Jackson.  Jackson, predictably slow to develop after starting for just a half-season at Nebraska, piled up 89 yards and a score on 12 touches against Indianapolis' first-team defense in the third exhibition game after Ryan Grant's concussion.  If Grant goes down in the regular season, Mike McCarthy's team can use the Next Man Up philosophy, and they'll be just fine.

Perhaps the most well-run franchise in football, the Baltimore Ravens have worked the trade and free agency markets to precision.  G.M. Ozzie Newsome added new dimensions to coordinator Cam Cameron's offense by bringing aboard powerful run-after-catch receiver Anquan Boldin, whose skillful blocking fits perfectly the Baltimore mentality.  Late-camp pickup T.J. Houshmandzadeh is quality insurance for 36-year-old wideout Derrick Mason at the very least.  Houshmandzadeh, 33, has plenty left in the tank, coming off a 79-catch season for the passing-inept Seahawks.

It all adds up to a potential breakout season for quarterback Joe Flacco.  The focal point of the offense, however, remains versatile tailback Ray Rice.  Still just 23, Rice topped 2,000 all-purpose yards last season, and will only get better.  Like the Packers, the Ravens have a more-than-viable running back replacement in Willis McGahee, who would start for at least 10 other teams.

Baltimore annually fields a top-five defense, and this year will be no different.  While Newsome upgraded the offense via trades and signings, he dedicated the first day of draft weekend to defensive youth injections.  If venerable nose tackle Kelly Gregg gets hurt, the Ravens can smoothly transition to mammoth second-round pick Terrence Cody.  Sergio Kindle's fractured skull was unfortunate, but he'll add pass rush off the edge once healthy.

Middle linebacker Ray Lewis still fills hard against the run, Terrell Suggs looked revitalized in the preseason after a disappointing campaign, and the August 31 swindle of playmaking cornerback Josh Wilson helps to bolster a secondary that's received good news with the quick recoveries of Fabian Washington and Lardarius Webb from ACL surgery.  Tom Zbikowski will ably hold down the fort until All-Pro free safety Ed Reed (hip) comes off the PUP list.

Ultimately, though, the Packers are the strongest, deepest, most talented team in football.  If these two ball clubs do battle in February, look for Green Bay to take home the Vince Lombardi trophy by a score of 31-23.

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Larry Fitzgerald is on track to return

During the Cardinals' first 2010 preseason game, a pass from former Arizona quarterback Matt Leinart led receiver Larry Fitzgerald's knee into the helmet of a Texans defensive back.  Four weeks later, Leinart plays for the Texans and Fitzgerald is preparing to return.

Fitzgerald fully participated in practice on Wednesday, and he's on track to play against the Rams.  Also fully participating was tight end Ben Patrick.  Practicing on a limited basis were cornerback Michael Adams (shoulder), linebacker Will Davis (knee), linebacker Joey Porter (back), receiver Andre Roberts (shoulder), and running back Jason Wright (toe).

Running back Chris Wells missed practice with a knee injury.

For the Rams, the only name on the injury report is safety James Butler, who was limited in practice with a knee injury.

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League once again will partially waive blackout rule

Last year, with the threat of a high number of lockouts looming, the NFL modified its blackout policy.  All blacked out games were available in the local markets on a tape-delayed basis, via NFL.com.

Starting at midnight, the blacked out games were available for 72 hours, with the exception of the three-or-so hours of Monday Night Football.

NFL spokesman Dan Masonson tells us that the league will apply the same approach in 2010.  Thus, if our friends in Tampa can find a way to avoid all media for 11 hours after kickoff of the Bucs' home game against the Browns, the Week One contest can be viewed on NFL.com as if from scratch. 

We've not yet confirmed that the league will again make look-ins to the blacked-out games available via RedZone, but we'd be surprised if the rule changes.  The logistics on dropping the curtain temporarily as to blacked out games in only the local market of the home team seems to be much more trouble than it's worth.

UPDATE:  It's our understanding that, indeed, the blacked-out games will be included in the RedZone transmissions to the affected markets.

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Florio's Super Bowl pick

When we cobbled together the PFT Season Preview magazine back in May, each of the four main PFT writers made playoff and Super Bowl predictions.  It seemed like a good idea, in large part because it helped us fill up two more pages at a time when we were running low on ideas.

And since I've pointed out inconsistencies in the past when experts try to slip inconsistent picks through our collective five hole, we're sticking with our picks from the PFT Season Preview magazine.  Each projection will appear from the four writers -- Rosenthal, MDS, Silva, and yours truly -- throughout the rest of the evening.

After years of trying unsuccessfully to supercharge their offense, the Baltimore Ravens finally have achieved their goal.  With a third-year quarterback who already has generated a 3-2 record in five road postseason games and a small army of high-end possession receivers and one of the best young tailbacks in the game, the Ravens could score far more points per week than any Ravens defense ever should need.

Things looked dicey during training camp, with cornerback Dominique Foxworth tearing an ACL and safety Ed Reed battling with a bum hip and Jared Gaither looking less like a right tackle and more like a tight end and receiver Donte' Stallworth busting a foot.  But a strong showing in the preseason and a sense that the front seven on defense still has the punch to make up for a substandard secondary means that the two sides of the ball should come together to do great things.

In 2008 and 2009, the Ravens were swept by the eventual champions of the AFC North.  This year, if the Ravens can take care of business in their own backyard, the Ravens could end up earning a bye and forcing other playoff teams to come to Baltimore in January.  And that could result in a trip to Texas.

Why not square off once again against the Cowboys?  Two years ago, the Ravens were the hand-picked patsies to close out Texas Stadium, and the Ravens instead played the role of rude house guests.  The perfect bookend would come from a return to Dallas and a victory over the Cowboys in the first Super Bowl played in their new venue.

As the season approaches, I'm feeling less confident about the Cowboys making it to the Super Bowl and more inclined to tab the grossly overlooked defending Super Bowl champions from New Orleans.  But I picked the Cowboys in June, and I'm sticking with it.

After all, it can't turn out any worse than picking the Redskins to advance to the Super Bowl, like some idiot who shall remain nameless did last year at this time.

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Kurt Warner gets another job

Not long ago, former NFL quarterback Kurt Warner called himself a "one-trick pony."  Well, this one-trick pony now has three jobs.

Hired by FOX to broadcast games and ABC to dance with the stars (and the non-star pop-culture curiosities), Warner now will be moonlighting from his moonlighting by working for NFL Network.

"Kurt's accomplishments on the field speak for themselves," NFL Network executive producer Eric Weinberger said in a release.  "We welcome him as he transitions from a Hall of Fame-caliber playing career to broadcasting, where he joins our roster of all-pro analysts."

Warner will work as an in-studio analyst on Total Access, and he will contribute to other NFL Network shows and specials.  The frequency of his appearances has not been specific.

"I enjoyed working on Arena football games on NFL Network and appreciate the opportunity to join NFL Network's strong team of analysts," Warner said.  "This season I look forward to talking about the hits and not taking them for the first time."

Cardinals fans everywhere wish that weren't the case.

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Chris Cook is out, Cedric Griffin could be in for Minnesota

Vikings cornerback Antoine Winfield has expressed concern regarding the prospect of facing a Saints offense despite having only three healthy corners.

As it turns out, the Vikings could get a fourth on Thursday night, and it's the one they least expected to have.

Cedric Griffin, who popped an ACL during the kickoff that launched overtime in the NFC title game at the Superdome, has been listed as questionable.  Rookie Chris Cook, who was expected to start in Griffin's place, is out with a knee injury of his own.

Other corners are Winfield, Lito Sheppard, and Asher Allen.

Also out for the Vikings is defensive tackle Jimmy Kennedy (knee).  Running back Toby Gerhart (knee) is questionable, and three are probable:  quarterback Brett Favre (ankle), safety Jamarca Sanford (ankle), and center John Sullivan (calf).

For the Saints, linebacker Stanley Arnoux (ankle) and running back Chris Ivory (knee) are out.  Tackle Zach Strief (knee) is questionable.  Six player are probable, including receiver Marques Colston (kidney), tight end Jimmy Graham (ankle), defensive tackle Tony Hargrove (knee), cornerback Tracy Porter (knee), safety Pierson Prioleau (knee), and linebacker Jonathan Vilma (groin).

Hargrove has been listed as probably despite missing practice on Tuesday and Wednesday.

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