During the first half of Saturday night’s preseason game between the Cowboys and the Texans, CBS analyst Phil Simms offered up his picks for the 2010 playoff field.
In the AFC, he selected the same six who made it a year ago: the Jets, Bengals, Colts, Chargers, Patriots, and Ravens.
He’ll likely miss on three of those picks, given that the free agency era has seen turnover of roughly 50 percent per year. And so the safe approach is to pick all of the six playoff teams from 2009 to return, which essentially guarantees that the prognosticator will be partially right.
The risk-takers will try to predict the three teams per conference that, as history tells us, won’t make it back, the three that will, and the three playoffs party crashers. Few so-called experts apply that approach due to the risk of picking the wrong three to exit and the wrong three to replace them.
But at least Simms allowed for some turnover in the NFC. He picked four of the teams from last year to return (Cowboys, Vikings, Saints, Packers), with the Cardinals and Eagles being bounced for the 49ers and Giants.
I’m not knocking Simms. I applied a similar approach in my picks for the PFT Season Preview magazine. In the NFC, my six-team field matches Simms’. In the AFC, I dropped the Bengals and the Jets and included the Texans and the Dolphins.
So I went with 33-percent turnover per conference, even though I was fully aware that it’s likely that one more of the teams that made it last year from each conference will be sitting at home this time around.
As to the rest of the PFT scribes, Rosenthal, MDS, and Silva each predicted that three of 12 won’t make it back.
Keep that dynamic in mind as more and more predictions roll in over the next week or so. And if anyone out there predicts that six teams that made it last year won’t make it this year, we’ll applaud him or her for having the guts to do so — and then of course we’ll point and laugh if the ultimate outcome of the suggested playoff field is zero for 12.
You must be mistaken Florio…..No one comes here for predictions…Where the hell did you ever get that notion….We just come here to bust others fans balls and have fun, i doubt any info here has made me run to vinnie the bookie and say it’s a lock, and besides that how how hell can you call Rosenthal a progniscator when it’s obvious he has yet to watch an NFL game?
“Few so-called experts apply that approach due to the risk of picking the wrong three to exit and the wrong three to replace them.”
Or maybe they just pick the 6 teams they think will make it to the playoffs.
I mean come on man its not that complicated. I have no clue how you make everything so difficult.
Post this Florio. Your an Ass. You go for the Dolphins over the Bengals. I agree that the Jets are not the team to beat but Cinci beat all the teams in the AFC North last year, not split but won them all. Zimmer has the Ravens and Steelers figured out and the Browns will not be a problem. So even though the only thing that hurt Cinci last year was losing a deep threat receiver in Chris Henry and Crocker and Williams at safety and Rey at LB, Bengals D is way softer without Rey look at the stats, and a hurt Tank and Peko with a knee injury and Odom being gone. So now your going to tell me with the pieces Cinci has right now and not including adding Dunlap and Geno and Pacman. And then the threats on Offense with T.O., Shipley, Gresham and Reggie Kelley back along with a Chase Coffman looking good and a solid crew blocking upfront. Ok you take the Ravens and the Steelers and the Dolphins and I will see your record in January vs’ mine. You are a hack of biblical proportions.
Your an Ass.
?
He said the texans and the dolphins not the steelers, hick.
Your catching on ….. Phil Simms is the worst announcer & even has alot of competition.
Everything he says are “Mr. Obvious” observations that kids know … he brings nothing to the game. I have to mute him & put on the radio.
On top of that he prattles on endlessly like he’s got some hot gossip at a hen party … & he’s always got nothing, even after being prepped all week with access to the teams players & coaches.
I think he wears pink underwear & shows them off & talks about them all day … but I could be wrong (could be mauve or chartreusse)
Jets, bengals and possibly ravens miss playoffs with Pitt, miami and yets I am goign to say this Oakland in!
Mike – you’re predicting the Jets miss the playoffs and the Patriots make it?
What are you trying to do? Rile up Jets fans and drive hits to this websiste while also hawking your preseason preview which I’d guess was published a few months ago?
If that was your plan it’s very subtle and I’m sure no one will notice.
Florio has the Jets missing the playoffs????…What a surprise!!!!
Jets made it to the AFC Championship game last season, and improved their team over the offseason…Your a clown Florio, nobody listen to you because you are a hack. They only come to bust the balls of other teams fans. Get off ya high horse.
who the hell cares?……..There are so many of you media talking heads making predictions it turns into a bunch of white noise……….do you really think people care about the predictions of these so-called “experts”……they are nothing more than “guesses” and carry no more weight than the predictions of the drunk sitting at your local sports bar……Phil Simms picks…..WHOOP-DEE-DO……
I only care about one team.
Patriots win the AFC East. Everyone on this board knows they will be there.
That said, the defense will have to mature for them go farther than that. I’m saying they will.
YES, THE COWBOYS WOOHOO SUPERBOWL BABY WOOOOOOOO
Florio, just pick everybody to make the playoffs and you won’t have to listen to this nonsense.
At least he didn’t put it in writing where people can pull it up at anytime and rub his nose in it.
*cough* *cough*
Final 2009 preseason power rankings
Ouch. Saints at 12 and Colts at 6. Jets at 23.
Titans-Steelers tonight, Redskins-Steelers in February
That’s right.
I went there.
Chargers will not make the playoffs this year.
And from looking at the sad state of the rest of the AFC West, that speaks volumes about how far SD has fallen.
They had a window of opportunity, but it has slammed shut. What a waste.
phil simms is a bad announcer, he’s like the unattentive guy you talk to at a party that has a point he has to get across and is oblivious to the guy in the corner who just caught on fire and smashed through the patio window and he says “now let me tell you about what happened when I pulled that fish into the boat…”
And the point to this post is…?
unless phil simms ends up being correct with his picks for the afc then his prediction will not only be considered safe but correct. to write a story about someones prediction is ridiculous if thats what he thinks will happen then thats all it is, if hes wrong he played it safe, if hes right it doesnt matter because no one but you will remember it.
Why make predictions anyway? It’s just filler for lazy media types. No one knows what’s going to happen – it’s why they play games instead of just handing the trophy to the biggest offseason movers (usually the ‘Skins but this year the Jets).
Seriously nobody has any insight that will correctly predict the upcoming playoff teams.
TryTheVeal said”…No one comes here for predictions…Where the hell did you ever get that notion….We just come here to bust others fans balls and have fun…”
—-
Truer words have not been spoken on this site.
Phill Simms has more Superb Owl rings then:
Phillp Rivers
Jason “dumbo” campbell
Every philly iggle player to walk the earth as well as fan
jets= NO playoffs and NO QB. Hope you clowns enjoyed your 1 year fluke. Now, back to 40 more years of choking where you’re most comfortable.
Oh Mike you just wallow in your own imagined brillance don’t you? As if you have a crystal ball that tells you exactly which teams will make the cut. Because you’ve been so right about everything in the past ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!
If you think Simms is playing is safe picking AFC playoff teams, then you should see him pick his nose…that would change your entire perspective.
The regular season hasnt even started yet every team has the same chance of making the playoffs. the saints, ravens etc have to work hard like every other team to make the playoffs they wont make it just becuase mike florio thinks they would
Steelers making the playoffs this year is about as likely as Obama suddenly saying that he loves guns and hates homosexuals. They’ll be lucky to win 2 without the rapist, then when he comes back he’ll drop the first two to the Saints and Bengals. Not too many teams can defy the odds of being extremely overrated, starting 2-6, and having only one DB that belongs in an NFL starting lineup.
Face it Steelers fans, there are at least 8 better teams in the AFC this year and 2 of them are in your division. Unfortunately you can’t make it into the playoffs by thumping your chest and saying “6 rings by gawd”!
wow steelersrule….what a surprise you pick the Ravens to miss the playoffs and the steelers to be in…..HAHAHAHAHA….
I guess you did not see the Ravens game last night…….
Jets won’t win the division and they look like they will struggle to match 9-7 from last year. Dolphins are also stuck where they were last year. The Patriots got better on offense and overall are holding their own on defense after getting younger and faster.
AFC South looks like three-way between Indy, TN, and Houston – I’m surprised the Titans have been uneven on offense in the preseason; I expect them to get better there come the regular season.
AFC North also looks like a three-way, as the Steelers have generally looked better than I expected with Roeth to be out, though 1-3 in the first four games seems a lock. The Browns have shown suprising firepower on offense in the preseason and may surprise some people.
Chargers look a little shaky but overall look like the West champs. Denver doesn’t seem to be clicking under McDaniels even with last night’s rout of Pittsburgh. KC hasn’t benefitted from Crennel/Weis. Oakland looks better simply by not having JaMarcus Russell.
Right on, BIGD, Right on Preech on my brother.
Bengals are absolutely STACKED this year at every single position.
@YawnFlorio says:
After witnessing a ROOKIE QB take apart the Patsie “defense”, you might want to revise your prediction.
Florio, you’d be better off dropping the Patsies from your playoff list. They are on their way down. They might score alot of points but will give up more on defense…just like this past weekend against the pathetic Rams.
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ok moron #1. the pats defence was one of the worst last season everybody “took it apart” sanchez isnt special. #2 Pats vs Rams was a PRESEASON GAME. i bet your one of those ppl that take those seriously. #3 what game were you watching all i saw was the jets hardly winning, and the next time they played the pats stomped them. ive seen better rookie seasons.
@YawnFlorio
Just shows that Tom Brady wasn’t the real reason that the Patsies won those titles. It was the DEFENSE, as in DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS
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Yes your right tom brady had nothing to do with the pats 3 superbowls. even though he has over 200 TD and 30,000 passing YDs it was realy teddy bruschi that led the team to three superbowls. who the needs brady. and your right about sanchez 20 INTs 5 in one game? He disserved rookie of the year. becuase unlike tome brady sanchez took his team to the afc championship game not his defence. If the jets didnt have their defence theyd still be fine because of mark sanchez. Becuase since the pats dont have their 3 superbowl winning defence anymore theyre screwed becuase brady only passed for ove 4,000 yards last season and 28 TDs and won the division. I can throw stats at you all day. The Jets and sanchez havnt won or proved anything buddy dont be so quick to have high hopes for them. theyre going to have to work hard like every other team becuase they are not in an easy division