Week Eight picks

The inability of referee Scott Green to properly apply the supposedly clear rule regarding going to the ground when making a catch not only cost the Vikings a win.  It also prevented me from extending to two my streak of victories over Rosenthal.

Yes, he beat me by one game in Week Seven, and the difference was the outcome of the Vikings-Packers game.

For the week, Rosenthal got 10 right and four wrong.  I was 9-5.

For the year, Rosenthal is 69-35.  I’m 65-39.

And though it pains me to type this (in part because I’ll never hear the end of it from him), Rosenthal currently has a better showing than all of the ESPN “experts,” including the Accuscore projections and the fan-based picks. 

Maybe he should apply for a job there.  They probably need someone with a sturdy shine box.

Broncos vs. 49ers in London

Florio’s take:  When the league picked this game to be the 2010 English export, it didn’t look like a bad choice.  The 49ers were viewed as the favorite to win the NFC West, and the Broncos were regarded as a middle-of-the-road team with the potential to improve.  Seven weeks into the season, the 49ers have only one win and the Broncos have two.  The decision to thrust quarterback Troy Smith into the starting lineup smacks of the desperation coach Mike Singletary surely is feeling, and even though Denver lost to one Bay Area team by 45 in Week Seven, Week Eight likely will bring a seventh loss for the Niners.

Florio’s pick:  Broncos 30, 49ers 21.

Rosenthal’s take: The NFL should send teams to London earlier in the season, before they show how bad they really are.  The depleted Broncos defense gets worse every week, and the 49ers defense just made Matt Moore look like, well, Matt Moore from 2009.  This is a crossroads/gut check/insert cliché game for both coaches.  I trust Josh McDaniels and Kyle Orton far more than Mike Singletary and Troy Smith.

Rosenthal’s pick: Broncos 31, 49ers 21.

Jaguars at Cowboys

Florio’s take:  Four prior games between these two teams have been decided by seven points or less.  Continuation of that trend would help Jacksonville coach Jack Del Rio, even if the Jags lose.  One more 20-plus-point blowout (the Jaguars already have suffered four) could get Del Rio fired.  The return of David Garrard and the departure of Tony Romo could help, but probably not enough.  But at least the Jags will possibly lose by less than 20.

Florio’s pick:  Cowboys 27, Jaguars 17.

Rosenthal’s take:  Jon Kitna versus the Jaguars secondary.  The immobile quarterback versus the force that provides no resistance.  If I was a betting man, I’d stay far away from this one because both teams are about as trustworthy as Florio’s hairpiece.  At least the Jaguars seem like they care. 

Rosenthal’s pick: Jaguars 20, Cowboys 16.

Dolphins at Bengals

Florio’s take:  From 1978 through 2000, the Dolphins won nine straight games over the Bengals.  Cincinnati has won the last two, but they haven’t played since Bill Parcells put his thumbprint on the Dolphins.  More importantly, the game won’t be played in Miami, where the Fins are 0-3.  Though the Bengals found some punch on offense against the Falcons, the Dolphins are more talented, more desperate, and (after believing they got screwed against the Steelers) more feisty.

Florio’s pick:  Dolphins 24, Bengals 16.

Rosenthal’s take: Chad Henne has quietly improved all season, and he should do well against a Bengals secondary without Adam Jones and possibly Johnathan Joseph.  Carson Palmer is also playing better, but it seems to take a 21-point deficit to warm him up.  The Bengals defense is providing too many chances for failed comeback attempts.

Rosenthal’s pick: Dolphins 24, Bengals 21.

Bills at Chiefs

Florio’s take:  Some (I’m looking at you, Rosenthal) think that Bills coach Chan Gailey has something up his sleeve for his most recent former team.  Pointing to an unlikely strong showing by Buffalo’s offense against a complacent Ravens defense, Rosey thinks the Bills can give the Chiefs a run for their money.  Let’s see if Rosey puts his money where his mouth is.  Arrowhead Stadium has been a-rockin’; Gailey and his team would be wise to not go a-knockin’.

Florio’s pick:  Chiefs 31, Bills 14.

Rosenthal’s take:  I’m not sure people have really wrapped their mind around the fact that Ryan Fitzpatrick’s Bills racked up 514 yards on the Ravens.  514! The Harvard product is a joy to watch, with decisive, difficult throws often into tight windows.  He’s a great runner and seems to like contact.  And he has a red beard.  The Bills will keep losing most weeks because their defense is an embarrassment, but at least they’ll be fun to watch.

Rosenthal’s pick: Chiefs 34, Bills 31.

Redskins at Lions

Florio’s take:  For the third straight year, these two franchises meet in Detroit.  In 2008, the Redskins kept the Lions winless by only eight points.  In 2009, the Lions ended a 19-game losing streak with a win over the ‘Skins.  Assuming Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford, back after suffering a shoulder injury in Week One, won’t throw four passes to DeAngelo Hall, the rested, ready, and confident (perhaps delusional) Lions should be able to get it done.  Last week’s meltdown by the Chicago offense concealed the fact that the Washington offense isn’t dramatically better, and the Lions look to be in line for their second win of the year.

Florio’s pick:  Lions 20, Redskins 13.

Rosenthal’s take: Signs the Lions have come a long way:  (1) they are still talking playoffs after a 1-5 start and it doesn’t seem completely insane; (2) they’ve outscored their opponents this year (thanks Rams!); (3) they are favored against a 4-3 Redskins team and I’d still give the points.

Rosenthal’s pick: Lions 24, Redskins 17.

Panthers at Rams

Florio’s take:  Like the other team that will contend for the NFC West crown, the Rams are tough at home and soft on the road.  This week, a win at home would pull the Rams to 4-4, and it would end a four-game losing streak against Carolina, a slide that began in St. Louis nearly seven years ago with a double-overtime loss to the eventual NFC Super Bowl representatives.  This time around, the Rams simply have the better team — which given the state of the Panthers isn’t really saying much.

Florio’s pick:  Rams 24, Panthers 13.

Rosenthal’s take: The Rams are winless on the road, so it’s good the league loaded them up with home games before a three-game road trip after Thanksgiving.  The Panthers finally found a passing game, which could make them a dangerous spoiler the rest of the way.  Every game for the Rams is dangerous because they aren’t that talented, but they’ve responded very well to losses this year.

Rosenthal’s pick: Rams 22, Panthers 20.

Packers at Jets

Florio’s take:  The Jets remain the hottest team in the NFL, with a swarming defense and a sufficiently competent offense.  Receiver Santonio Holmes had two extra weeks to hone his timing with quarterback Mark Sanchez, which should result in an even more souped-up passing attack.  The Packers aren’t remotely close to being Super Bowl ready, and without again getting a couple of gift calls on touchdown plays they can’t expect to win this one.

Florio’s pick:  Jets 27, Packers 20.

Rosenthal’s take: The Packers lost another linebacker for the season, while the Jets are fully healthy after their bye.  Revis Island is ready to re-open with tougher immigration laws and there’s a sense New York hasn’t played their best despite being 5-1.  All logic points to the Jets. (I’m sure Florio is taking his beloved Jets.)  All the more reason to take the Packers, who are ready to go on a run.

Rosenthal’s pick: Packers 26, Jets 21.

Titans at Chargers

Florio’s take:  Vince Young likely will return for a Tennessee offense that did fairly well without him.  But the two Tennessee losses have come against teams that run a 3-4 defense, the preferred attack of the Chargers.  And the Charger

s have much more talent than their 2-5 record suggests.  Assuming that the late surge in Week Seven against the Patriots woke up the four-time defending AFC West champions, the Chargers will stay alive for at least another week.

Florio’s pick:  Chargers 23, Titans 20.

Rosenthal’s take: The Titans have a knack for frustrating opponents and forcing them into mistakes.  The Chargers have a knack for frustrating their fans and making unforced errors.  The Titans lead the league in takeaways and have scored the most points off turnovers.  The Chargers have the most giveaways in the AFC.  Add it up, and Norv Turner’s head should explode sometime in the third quarter.

Rosenthal’s pick: Titans 26, Chargers 21.

Vikings at Patriots

Florio’s take:  Vikings coach Brad Childress has been talking lately.  A lot.  His words regarding the officiating in Sunday night’s loss to the Packers got him a $35,000 fine.  His barbs directed at the Patriots and Bill Belichick could get Chilly a butt-whipping on par with the 31-7 defeat his team absorbed from Belichick and company four years ago.  Brett Favre, who won’t play only if he can’t move, will be jumping on his “broke foot” when things go well, and he’ll be walking like John Wayne with hemorrhoids when things go poorly.  Count on plenty of Rooster Cogburn on Preparation H sightings.

Florio’s pick:  Patriots 35, Vikings 13. 

Rosenthal’s take:  After the Patriots released Lawyer Milloy then lost to the Bills 31-0 to open the 2003 season, ESPN’s Tom Jackson said the “Patriots hate their coach.”   Three weeks after New England traded Randy Moss to Minnesota, it’s the Vikings that seem to hate their coach.  The rest of the country hates Brett Favre, who seems to know it and wear it on his face during every depressing press conference.  This is the week Moss begins to realize how good he had it in Foxborough.  

Rosenthal’s pick: Patriots 24, Vikings 14.

Buccaneers at Cardinals

Florio’s take:  Bucs coach Raheem Morris thinks he has is the best team in the NFC.  Less than two years ago, the Cardinals actually were the best team in the NFC.  Though the Cardinals have looked horrible at times, the managed to take down at home a Saints team that thumped the Bucs in their own stadium.  And that’s good enough for me.

Florio’s pick:  Cardinals 24, Buccaneers 20.

Rosenthal’s take: The “best team in the NFC” isn’t favored in Arizona, where the Cardinals are 2-0 this season.  If the Bucs are to live up to Raheem Morris’ hype, this is a game they win going away.  Arizona’s passing game is a mess, while the running game isn’t much better.  It’s a miracle they are 3-3. Still, these teams are more similar than different.  And they’ll have the same record after this one.

Rosenthal’s pick: Cardinals 19, Bucs 14.

Seahawks at Raiders

Florio’s take:  Here’s the toughest call of the week.  Tony Dungy thinks the Seahawks are the best team in the NFC.  Raiders cornerback Chris Johnson thinks his team is the most talented in the entire NFL.  The Seahawks had been unable to win on the road before taking down the Bears two weeks ago.  Before a far=less-than-full stadium against a Raiders team buoyed by a 59-point uprising against the Broncos on Sunday, the Raiders likely will finish an unlikely ascension to .500 at the halfway point of the season.

Florio’s pick:  Raiders 27, Seahawks 17.

Rosenthal’s take: Every time the Raiders win a game, they say they turned the corner.  Even though they haven’t won back-to-back games since 2008, I’m just crazy enough to believe them this time.  The Seahawks whole offensive gameplan seems to be “don’t throw interceptions” but they need a little more than that on the road.

Rosenthal’s pick: Raiders 23, Seahawks 16.

Steelers at Saints

Florio’s take:  At one point in September, it looked like this game would feature a clash of the best two teams in the league.  It remains half right, with the Steelers among the best of the bunch and the Saints sliding toward irrelevance.  Though the defending champs’ backs are being pushed against the wall, that 13-point loss to the Browns means the days of dominance have ended, at least for now.  A one-dimensional offense is no match for a multi-faceted Steelers defense, and this one could turn into a rout, which would mean the ratings will only double those from Game Four of the World Series.

Florio’s pick:  Steelers 34, Saints 21.

Rosenthal’s take:  A lot of tough games to pick this week. I’ve debated this one for days, but the tiebreaker goes to the Steelers.  Even though Pittsburgh’s pass defense has looked shakier the last two weeks, New Orleans has struggled against far worse groups.  At some point, it’s worth recognizing the 2009 Saints passing attack just may not come back.

Rosenthal’s pick: Steelers 27, Saints 24.

Texans at Colts

Florio’s take:  The Texans obsessed over their Week One visit from the Colts, and it paid off.  Since then, the Texans have been roughly average.  They get another crack at the Colts on Monday night, at a time when plenty of Indy players are missing.  But as long as Peyton Manning remains healthy, the Colts will be tough to beat, especially at home.  Manning realizes the importance of not being swept by the Texans — and not falling to 0-3 in the division.

Florio’s pick:  Colts 33, Texans 27. 

Rosenthal’s take: Dallas Clark and Austin Collie will be missed, but I’m not really that worried about the Colts offense in this game. They have great depth and the Jeff George Colts could score 30 points on this awful Texans defense.  The bigger question is whether the Colts defense can snap out of their funk.  At home, in a huge division game, I’ll take my chances they make enough plays.

Rosenthal’s pick: Colts 38, Texans 31.

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One Thursday, the Colts signed one linebacker and waived another.

So why the post about the arrival of Caesar Rayford and the departure of Jake Killeen, two players who have never appeared in an NFL game?

It is a reminder there are various ways to be discovered by pro football’s most prestigious league.

Rayford, 27, has been a defensive end with the Utah Blaze of the Arena Football League the last four seasons, notching 27.5 sacks. The Colts will try the 6-foot-7, 265-pound Washington product at outside linebacker.

The 27-year-old Killeen, meanwhile, is a former Indoor Football League standout whom the Colts signed in January. He too is an outside linebacker.

The Colts aren’t the only NFL team to scout the other professional leagues, not by a longshot. But this seems a uniquely Colts transaction. General manager Ryan Grigson played and scouted in the Canadian Football League, and he had a stint in the Arena League as a coach and evaluator.

While Rayford certainly is no lock to make the Colts, it’s notable that he’s getting a chance. He had just 5.5 sacks in four seasons at Washington, and he is six years removed from college. He had to earn his way onto the NFL’s radar, and then he had to hope someone would notice him on the screen.

The Colts apparently did.

AP

The Falcons have moved carefully and specifically this offseason, not adding many players, but adding veterans at positions of need.

They may be about to again.

According to Alex Marvez of FoxSports.com and John Manasso of FOXSportsSouth.com, the Falcons have been in contract talks with former Riaders defensive tackle Richard Seymour.

That would fit with the signings of running back Steven Jackson and defensive end Osi Umenyiora, as the Falcons make a Super Bowl push.

The Falcons don’t have a glut of cap room, but still would be interested in adding a player such as Seymour, a four-time Pro Bowler who would add some gravity to a defense that needs it.

AP

According to multiple published reports, Cowboys defensive tackle Josh Brent faces a court date Friday as Dallas County District Attorney’s office alleges he has violated his bond conditions in connection with the auto accident that took the life of teammate Jerry Brown last year.

According to the Dallas Morning News, the district attorney’s office alleges Brent either has been in close proximity of alcohol or has consumed alcohol; either is forbidden according to the conditions set after Brent was charged with intoxication manslaughter in December. Per multiple reports, Brent faced a $100,000 bond.

An unnamed source told ESPN Dallas that Brent did not consume alcohol.

Also, the Associated Press, citing prosecutors, reported that Brent is alleged to have tampered with an alcohol-detection monitor he is to wear.

Brent is slated to go to trial in September.

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Despite only being in existence since 1996, the Ravens have won two Super Bowls.  Which will make it difficult to limit the pantheon of franchise greats to only four.

Ray Lewis and Jonathan Ogden can safely be installed in two of the spots.  For the other two, consider candidates like Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs, Peter Boulware, Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, Anquan Boldin, Matt Stover, Ozzie Newsome, John Harbaugh, Steve Bisciotti, Art Modell, Jamal Lewis, Chris McAlister, Haloti Ngata, Matt Birk, Willis McGahee, and Shannon Sharpe.

Nominate your favorites below.

The unveiling of team-by-team Mt. Rushmores will commence on June 2, on NBCSN’s Pro Football Talk.

What else are you gonna do in June?  Watch baseball?

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After his appearance at Redskins’ OTA practice on Thursday, quarterback Robert Griffin III said he has “only” two hurdles left in his recovery from a torn ACL:  (1) clearance for “explosive” sprinting; and (2) clearance to cut.

Those are both fairly significant hurdles.

As to these obstacles, perhaps the most important maneuver for an athlete with a new ACL, a source with knowledge of the situation tells PFT that there is no timetable for said clearance.

“It is still a ways off,” the source said.  “No one is going to rush anything.”

That’s the most important thing for Griffin, the Redskins, the media, and the fans to remember.  Griffin got into this mess because not enough attention was being paid to his health.  This time around, despite anything anyone says, they’re going to be careful.

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The Texans have agreed to a contract with third-round pick Sam Montgomery, Tania Ganguli of the Houston Chronicle reported Thursday.

The 6-foot-3, 262-pound Montgomery will play outside linebacker in the Texans’ 3-4 scheme. He recorded 19 sacks in three seasons for LSU.

After the selection of Montgomery, Texans linebackers coach Reggie Herring called the rookie linebacker a “big, strong, powerful, explosive individual.”

“His play strength is (the) exception, it’s about average,” Herring said, according to a transcript from the club. “As far as the run game, he has that play strength that you need to play early in this league. I think he’ll blend in well as far as the run game and setting the edge in our package.

“The other thing is when we look at our outside backers, we look at pass rush as a priority in our defense. He does bring an element of rush off the edge that is, once again, probably undeveloped and raw, but he has the basic ingredients, and that is, he can rush speed to power.”

Montgomery, who garnered first-team all-Southeastern Conference honors from league coaches in 2012, declared for the draft with one season of eligibility remaining.

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The 49ers have signed rookie tight end Vance McDonald, the club said Thursday.

McDonald, whom the 49ers selected in the second round, could compete for playing time right off the bat for San Francisco, which lost Delanie Walker in free agency. According to Pro Football Focus, Walker played 589 regular-season snaps a season ago for the 49ers, with Vernon Davis — the Niners’ top tight end — logging 942 snaps, per PFF data.

A Rice product, the 6-foot-4, 267-pound McDonald caught 120 passes for 1,513 yards and 15 touchdowns in four seasons with the Owls. He was the No. 55 overall pick.

Adam Caplan of TheSidelineView.com first reported McDonald’s signing.

The 49ers also confirmed the signing of defensive lineman Tank Carradine, their other second-round selection in the 2013 draft.

AP

We noted before the draft that Terrell Brown was a 6-foot-10, 388-pound defensive lineman from Ole Miss who had drawn some interest from NFL teams. But that’s not quite right.

Actually, Rams coach Jeff Fisher says, Brown is a 6-foot-10, 403-pounder. And Fisher says that after the Rams signed Brown as an undrafted free agent, they decided that his future is on the offensive line.

“Actually, we weighed him in at 403,” Fisher told reporters today. “We had him in for the tryout and he had some issues that we had to clear up from a physical standpoint. But he got that put behind us. We worked him out on both sides of the ball, defensive line and offensive line, and we felt like his best position would be right tackle. [Rams offensive line coach Paul Boudreau] said he’d love to have him. He’s a defensive lineman that we’ve converted to offensive lineman.”

Fisher also noted that with Brown’s height, the Rams might be able to put him on the field goal block team.

“He might be able to block some kicks,” Fisher said.

And if he can’t do that, he might have a future in the WWE, which is looking for some big-bodied football players. And it might help Brown make it in professional wrestling that he already has experience with folding chairs.

AP

It sure looks like a lot of NFL contract negotiators are heading to the beach this weekend, given the dizzying pace of rookie signings.

According to Adam Caplan of TheSidelineView.com, the 49ers joined the parade by signing second-round defensive end Tank Carradine.

Carradine’s coming off a torn ACL last November at Florida State, but they think he could be cleared to return by training camp.

Considering he ran a 4.75-second 40 at his pro day at 265 pounds, there is evidence to back up that belief.

The 49ers have shown a tendency to draft guys a year away (or more) from when they’re needed, but Carradine’s skills, along with age and some departures on the 49ers defensive line could push him forward.

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The Chiefs have signed rookie defensive back Sanders Commings, the club said on its official website Thursday.

A fifth-round pick from Georgia, the 6-foot, 216-pound Commings has gotten a look at safety early in his NFL career, a position where the Chiefs have Eric Berry and Kendrick Lewis as starters. He can also line up at cornerback, the position he primarily played at Georgia.

Commings, 23, notched 51 tackles and intercepted three passes in 2012, his senior at Georgia. He started 35 games in his final three seasons for the Bulldogs. Commings was timed at 4.41 seconds in the 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine.

AP

As we reported earlier, the Cardinals signed third-round pick Tyrann Mathieu to a four-year deal on Thursday.

While discussing Mathieu’s agreement, we mentioned dueling post-draft reports that the Cardinals wanted to sign Mathieu to a contract that included no guaranteed money and that Mathieu was unwilling to sign such a contract. The Cardinals didn’t announce the terms of the deal, but Albert Breer of the NFL Network reports that Mathieu wound up coming out ahead on that front.

Per Breer, Mathieu got the full slotted signing bonus for the 69th overall pick. That’s $662,500, but Mathieu won’t see it all up front. He will be paid $265,000 right now with the remainder of the bonus coming in the next three years with annual payments of $132,500 that must be paid unless Mathieu is cut because of drugs. The total value of the deal is $3.052 million.

Breer’s colleague Ian Rapoport also reports that Mathieu agreed to regular drug testing with the Cardinals, although the details of that agreement are not part of the contract. Mathieu’s agent Pat Lawlor told Rapoport that “both sides understood the issues we were dealing with all along” while working on the contract and the resulting deal is one that satisfies both the Cardinals’ desire for protection against a relapse from Mathieu and Mathieu’s desire to be paid what the 69th overall pick of the draft is supposed to be paid.

AP

There was a wide range of opinions about quarterback Matt Barkley heading into the draft, but the side that argued he was too flawed a quarterback to go in the first couple of rounds won out in the end.

That left Barkley to go to the Eagles in the fourth round and we’ll find out his thoughts about how things turned out when he joins Carolyn Manno for a conversation on Thursday’s edition of PFT on NBCSN. Manno will also talk to Barkley about his first impressions of playing for Eagles coach Chip Kelly and how he sees the quarterback derby playing out in Philly this year.

Ralph Vacchiano of the New York Daily News will also be on hand to talk about the Giants with wide receiver Hakeem Nicks‘ absence from OTAs likely to be a prime topic of conversation. Mike Florio and Tom Curran will also be on hand to talk about the biggest news of the day and the burning questions that AFC East teams will need to answer heading into the season.

It all gets started at 5 p.m. ET on NBCSN.

Reuters

Well, at least now he’ll be able to cover the medical bills.

The Ravens announced that they had signed second-round pick Arthur Brown, a day after coach John Harbaugh mentioned that Brown had sports hernia surgery earlier this month.

Assuming he’s well at the start of training camp, which is reasonable with the timeline of the procedure, Brown figures to start inside, where the Ravens lost a guy named Ray Lewis as well as free agent Dannell Ellerbe.

Brown’s a little undersized, but he was solid value for the Ravens in the second round, and could make an early impact for them once he gets back on the field.

AP

The Cardinals think they may have gotten the best playmaker in the draft when they drafted former LSU defensive back Tyrann Mathieu in the third round and now they’ve gotten him under contract.

The team announced Thursday that they have reached agreement on a four-year deal with Mathieu. Shortly after Mathieu was drafted, Peter King of SI.com reported that the Cardinals would be offering Mathieu a contract without guaranteed money, something Mathieu’s agent unsurprisingly said was not acceptable to his client. There’s no word yet on the financial details, but it would be surprising if Mathieu backed off that demand with the deal getting done in May.

Mathieu will be starting his Cardinals career as a safety instead of at the cornerback spot he played while at LSU before he was dismissed from the team following failed drug tests. He’s also expected to put that playmaking ability on display in the return game, although the Cardinals also have Patrick Peterson to bring back punts.

With Mathieu under contract, the Cardinals now have three draft picks left to sign. That group includes first-round guard Jonathan Cooper.

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The Steelers have signed sixth-round pick Justin Brown, the club announced Thursday. Pittsburgh now has five draft choices under contract.

A wide receiver who finished his collegiate career at Oklahoma, Brown (6-3, 209) hauled in 73 passes for 879 yards and five touchdowns in 2012 for the Sooners. He played his first three college seasons for Penn State.

After the selection of Brown, Steelers wide receivers coach Richard Mann said the receiver’s size and blocking ability were assets.

“(He’s) a guy that is primed for the strong side,” Mann said, according to the club. “He is a big guy who can lock up on the safeties and dig them out when it’s colder up here and we have to run it. He’s a guy we can put in and help with our running game.”

Brown is the third-tallest wide receiver currently on the Steelers’ roster; only 6-foot-5 Plaxico Burress and Derek Moye are taller.