Comments on: What the Saints win means for your favorite playoff scenarios

By: zam1104

zam1104 — Wed, 29 Dec 2010 18:25:30 +0000

Why does everyone assume that Carolina beating Atlanta is so laughable? This year in the NFL has proven any team can beat any other team at any time.

Vegas odds puts Atlanta at 89.7% chance of winning… hardly a given.

By: macjacmccoy

macjacmccoy — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 17:26:38 +0000

You stilled the eagles playoff scenarios. They need 2 wins and a Bears Saints and Falcons lose to get the number 1 seed. Or they need a Bears loss for the 2nd seed.

By: caperi

caperi — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 16:37:48 +0000

Another game that matters is IND-TEN. I guess the Eagles need the following for #1.

PHI over MIN (week 16)
PHI over DAL
CAR over ATL
TB over NO

and

GB over CHI
or
SF over ARI + IND over TEN

Since SF and IND are teams the Eagles beat, maybe the strength of victory tiebreaker is closer than I thought.

By: caperi

caperi — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 16:30:52 +0000

@dirksimmons

I was using ESPN’s playoff machine as well. I think I see where the difference is coming in. Apparently, there’s a few more games with significance that we’re overlooking (I guess they affect the strength of victory, or some other tiebreaker). If you preset victors by power ranking and then flip ATL-CAR and TB-NO, PHI takes #1. But if you go by win %, doing that leaves ATL at #1.

The difference? A 49ers win over the Cardinals (instead of a Cardinals win or tie). Is that game really that significant or is there a bug in the playoff machine?

By: 8man

8man — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 16:15:33 +0000

I was looking at the AFC seedings. If nothing changes, either Indy, Baltimore or the J-E-T-S will go to Foxborough for the divisional round. All very compelling matchups and

Wow! TV worth watching…..

I can’t see the Patriots being heavily favored in any of those matchups.

In the NFC there is a possibility of the Saints going to Philly for a divisional. If the Packers beat the Bears this week, I think they’d have to go back for the Wild Card round. And couldn’t they win again? See? Parity is a good thing.

By: tommytd

tommytd — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 16:05:11 +0000

Isn’t this fun?

By: drednot

drednot — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 16:04:18 +0000

caperi…the head to head matchup does matter. That’s the first tie breaker they look at.

By: dirksimmons

dirksimmons — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 15:59:48 +0000

Here’s what I see happening. The Falcons will blow out Carolina. The Saints will look at the scoreboard and pull everyone for the 4th quarter. The Bucs will win provided they aren’t down big by that time, which I don’t expect. I’m assuming the Giants will win, but they’ve gotta get it together. This means the Bears-Packers game will have a lot at stake for both teams. A first-round bye and a place in the playoffs. Should be interesting.

By: dirksimmons

dirksimmons — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 15:55:54 +0000

@caperi

According to ESPN’s playoff machine, the Eagles would need to win out and have ATL, NO, and CHI lose.

If ATL and NO lose and the Bears win, the Bears get the #1 seed. But if the Eagles win out, ATL is flipped back into the #1 spot. Kinda weird.

Here’s an oddity: If the Eagles win out and the Bears lose on Sunday to the Packers, there will be a Bears-Packers rematch in the Wild Card round in Chicago.

By: dvdman123

dvdman123 — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 15:48:59 +0000

I would not be surprised at all if 2 wild card teams make the conference finals.

By: dvdman123

dvdman123 — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 15:44:50 +0000

If the Saints win and the Falcons lose the Saints are the No.1 seed. It doesn’t matter what the Bears,Eagles or anyone else does. They would have a better conference record at 10-2.

By: caperi

caperi — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 15:37:54 +0000

@randolph32 – ATL, CHI, and PHI would all be 12-4, so you do a three way tiebreaker. Head to head record doesn’t matter since no team swept the other two (ATL-CHI didn’t play). It goes down to strength of victory which, if I understand correctly, is the winning % of all the opponents a team has beaten. The Eagles’ is about .500, Bears about .400, Falcons somewhere in the middle.

By: randolph32

randolph32 — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 15:24:20 +0000

@Caperi….if Chicago wins it wins the tiebreaker with the Eagles, so they can’t jump over them with an ATL and NO loss…

By: dirtybird06

dirtybird06 — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 15:12:31 +0000

That’s correct about NO.

These are going to be some tough ass wildcard games!

By: caperi

caperi — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 14:35:48 +0000

Don’t forget the Eagles and the #1 seed (win out, ATL loss, NO loss).

And I think NO doesn’t need a CHI loss (only an ATL loss, and NO win) to get #1, right?