Comments on: Our discoveries, after tracking pre-draft visits and workouts

By: klunge

klunge — Fri, 30 Mar 2012 18:39:13 +0000

Whenever I read an article in which a media member suggests they’ve found a key to figuring out how teams are going to draft, I assume that factor being discussed has little-to-no real relevance on how they actually draft.

Most GM’s keep it close to the vest, which is why draft day is so compelling – lots of surprises neither we nor the media saw coming.

By: winstonhussein

winstonhussein — Fri, 06 May 2011 02:59:19 +0000

Loving the social science aspect.

By: randolph32

randolph32 — Thu, 05 May 2011 22:34:15 +0000

The comments that Belichik makes about meeting players pre-draft are interesting, but do they really help you 4-6 years down the line to decide if you want them as a free agent? You’ve got 4 years of tape on them.

I suppose it would help when it comes to picking them up off the scrap heap, but that’s about it.

By: ezmoover

ezmoover — Thu, 05 May 2011 22:01:23 +0000

“The Broncos smokescreened the hell out of quarterbacks.”

Isn’t it simply possible that Elway just didn’t see a QB prospect that was worth drafting in one of his slots?

Jeebus Krist how you people at PFT continue to pull conjecture right out of yer buttocks.

By: mattsffrd

mattsffrd — Thu, 05 May 2011 21:31:55 +0000

“and the Texans don’t use pre-draft visits on first-round prospects.”

now THERE’S a good strategy

By: ryancloud

ryancloud — Thu, 05 May 2011 21:09:26 +0000

gosuhgo- The Lions this year had four of their five picks in for visits and they met with Young at the Senior Bowl… so not so tricky this year, but it worked out for them.

By: nanner12wojo

nanner12wojo — Thu, 05 May 2011 20:57:46 +0000

The comment about the Broncos makes no logical sense. Just because they didn’t draft a QB doesn’t mean they weren’t interested in one. Seems like a lot of time and effort to waste on a smokescreen to workout/interview/visit a half dozen QBs.

It’s more likely Elway was trying to determine if one of them showed him enough to warrant a 1st/2nd round pick to come in and compete with Orton/Tebow/Quinn for a shot at the job and ultimately realized that this year’s QB class was significantly overrated. OR, maybe he would’ve grabbed one of these guys had they fallen to round 3.

To just assume it was a smokescreen comes off as illogical.

By: tformation

tformation — Thu, 05 May 2011 20:34:48 +0000

Great article. Let’s keep this handy in April 2012…

By: zilla1126

zilla1126 — Thu, 05 May 2011 20:05:08 +0000

>> 5. The Broncos smokescreened the hell out of quarterbacks.

Why assume it was a smokescreen?

While it would make sense to play up a possible interest in taking a QB early to drive up the trade price of the pick for a QB-hungry team – it may be simply that they were VERY interested in adding a QB but really didn’t like ANY of them.

Based on my evaluations; I think it is entirely possible that ALL of the QBs in the first three rounds will either be straight out busts or have pedestrian careers.

If the Broncos agree – it would be stupid to reach for a QB that high just because they didn’t like what they had.

As for later rounds – there is still no reason to use your 2nd or 3rd pick on a QB you think will be a bust.

Would Ryan Leaf be worth a 2nd or 3rd if you re-did the 1998 draft?

The answer is no – no he isn’t.

By: dericivy

dericivy — Thu, 05 May 2011 20:03:19 +0000

This is actually a well written and interesting article.

…….

By: zn0rseman

zn0rseman — Thu, 05 May 2011 19:47:17 +0000

“Jags G.M. Gene Smith did personally attend Gabbert’s Insight Bowl game against Iowa”
—————————–
In that case, I’m shocked that they drafted him because in spite of running a highly touted and talented spread offense, he made plenty of bad decisions and throws in that game, including two picks (one a pick 6), resulting in a Missouri loss. The only thing that kept Missouri in the game were two terrible throws by Ricki Stanzi which resulted in two Tiger TD’s.

By: blackqbwhiterb

blackqbwhiterb — Thu, 05 May 2011 19:17:19 +0000

So now please explain to me why the Redskins didn’t draft a Quarterback???

By: dietrich43

dietrich43 — Thu, 05 May 2011 19:16:48 +0000

The Steelers pre-draft visits and selections usually has a number of matches.

By: possiblecabbage

possiblecabbage — Thu, 05 May 2011 19:08:58 +0000

Not using your visits with elite prospects is actually probably the smart play. You have a lot of information on how good a top defensive end or offensive tackle is just by watching tape and workouts at the combine or his pro day. You have a limited number of visits, so working him out again, on your own probably isn’t the best decision for the guy you have the most info on.

On the other hand, using your draft visits for late round guys allows you to fill in holes in your draft board (i.e. I don’t know how good this guy really is, I need to take a closer look), and to build relationships with potential priority undrafted free agents so you have an easier time signing them when undrafted free agency starts. A guy who you’ve had in the building, has met the coaches, and has had a positive time of it is much more likely to sign with you as a free agent even if you’re not offering the most money.

By: thereisalwaysnextyear

thereisalwaysnextyear — Thu, 05 May 2011 18:45:26 +0000

So that’s great that they worked out with the team that drafted them, but how many teams did they work out for that DIDN’T draft them.

By: hobartbaker

hobartbaker — Thu, 05 May 2011 18:44:39 +0000

The whole pre draft coverage is pointless crap. From the ever changing mock draft lists to tracking the visits and everything in between. Every mock draft in the country was out the door by the 7th pick of the draft. Fully ONE THIRD of first round picks were taken without even a face to face private session.

Everything said or done prior to the draft means absolutely nothing when the teams start to pick the players.

By: minnesconsin

minnesconsin — Thu, 05 May 2011 18:43:41 +0000

Not exactly a revolutionary discovery?

By: snowpea84

snowpea84 — Thu, 05 May 2011 18:37:06 +0000

Stupid.
How about you tell us also, how many other teams had work outs with each player from the top 12, that didnt draft that player?
If one of ten teams that had a player visit drafts that player, how much have you learned?
How many players did each team have visit that they did not draft as compared to how many they had total?

What we’ve really learned here is that you aren’t even good at making up justifications for wasting your time.

By: gosuhgo

gosuhgo — Thu, 05 May 2011 18:34:24 +0000

Interesting article. The Lions seem to like to be extra tricky come draft time – I think Fairley got in on the last day before the draft it at all, and Best last year didn’t get so much as a phonecall until he was being drafted. Funny how they all do it so different.