The big problem here though with all people saying it was a stupid call. You are not an NFL coach so there is no way of knowing what the decision you would have called.

The Falcons had already stopped the Saints once in OT, here is the problem with punting it. One stop is possible in OT but two stops with a team like the Saints, that is not easy no matter how good the defense. I see the only way we would have stopped them is a fumble or an INT. I highly doubt the Saints would have gone 3 and out again. That being said I think it was the right call.

QB sneak is the better playcall, also remember though, it is Micheal Turner we are talking about. In the end there are a million different calls and a million different situations that could have happened but Mike Smith called one of them and the Saints came out on top in that situation. It’s football it happens and I’m not upset with Mike Smith or the Falcons….well except that they thought they could come out and be a passing team with no offseason what so ever. It wasn’t gonna happen. Come next season the Falcons will have had the time to develop and learn their strengths and weaknesses as a passing team rather than in game when everything is on the line.

He should have just had them line up quickly and run a QB sneak. That would have worked.

Hesitating and calling a timeout provide crucial time for Greg Williams to change the defense and the defense to take a breath and get motivated for the stop.

Decision is only a good one if the odds are in your favor and they were not in this case.

0.74 (odds of converting) * 0.57 (odds of winning after converting) = 0.42 or 42% chance of both converting and winning. AKA, a 58% chance of losing. And that’s IF they convert.

The cold logic of it all says that the odds were about the same either way, but I definitely would have punted.

John Kasey has hit 70% of indoor field goals 40-49 yards and 100% of indoor field goals 30-39 yards in his career. I’d like for them to have to try a little bit harder than that.

Here the reward was keeping the ball and hoping to go another 35-40 yards to eventually have a chance to break the tie.

And good spelling is for winners.

Hate that justification. By that rationale, the Falcons should be going for it on any 4th down … up by 6, in FG range etc.

Liked the guts just didn’t like the play. Everyone knew what was coming.

I think they need to check the tape though for too many on the field. It seemed like the whole city of New Orleans was on that line.

Typical dirty bird, delusional to the fact that his team is who we thought they were and they let us off the hook

didnt they accuse the packers of dirty play in that loss, also? Are we seeing a pattern develop. Win…they are the most talented team in the league. Lose… the other team is dirty and cheating I love watching them implode at home, maybe they should implode that dump of a stadium

The Falcons are headed for a 9-7 record where they will just miss the playoffs and watch the post season from the comfort of their living rooms.

Was it just me or did it seem like it took about 18 minutes for that play to develop? On fourth and a foot, you just have to do a quarterback sneak and get that foot as quickly as possible.

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Exactly. It would be hard NOT to get 6 inches on a play where Ryan leaps over the center and extends the ball. It increases the chance of a fumble, but a fumble doesn’t really matter anyway in a situation where you’re going to turnover on downs and probably lose the game if you don’t convert. Instead they run a play out of I formation and have Turner following a slow lead blocker. Weak sauce.

Oh well, I suppose it’s payback for their overtime win last year when Hartley missed a chipshot that ultimately was the difference in them winning the division or being a WC.

It was the wrong decision.”

The article laid out the risk/reward probabilities clearly. 74% chance they convert. that’s almost 3:1, so that’s a good “risk”, much better than the risk of Brees and company getting into fieldgoal range, which is more than 26%! It was clearly the right call from a risk/reward point of view, mathematically.

The other way I can see looking at it is that they risked losing the game to convert a 4th down, which is not equal to winning the game. What I say to that is by giving the ball to the Saints you are allowing them to control their destiny instead of you controlling your own. You are allowing them the chance to win that game instead of taking the chance on your own. That is not how winners play.

Especially when the odds are on your side (of converting).

I think they need to check the tape though for too many on the field. It seemed like the whole city of New Orleans was on that line.

When the Saints called time out it was not to prepare the Defense for some unusual play that the Falcons might run. I’m sure the defense was told expect the Falcons to run that same friggin play they always run.

So at that point the Falcons need to decide to go for it by doing something different then what the entire planet knows they are going to do. Not some trick gadget play, just something creative.

Frankly, the Falcons defense knew that unless they forced a turnover, the game was history. Saints FG kicker has not missed a FG inside the 30 yard line since 1998 when some of the Falcons players were only 10 and 11 years old!!!!!!!

If he was so scareed of the NO offense why did they even show upfor the game?

Its simple, If you fail to convert, you lose the game. If you convert, you still have to go 40+ yards to have a shot of a Field Goal and no guarentee that you win the game.

There was no appropriate risk to reward here. Terrible decision. What it made it worse, after the Saints called a timeout, Falcons did not even change the formation.

Any rational analysis of ‘the odds’ also needs to include the potential impact of all decisions. What were the chances of the Falcons winning if the DON’T convert the 4th and 1? Approximately zero.

The Falcons may not have gone on to win had they punted the ball, but Smith’s decision doomed them to lose.

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Confidence in the offense or no confidence in your defense? Isnt that really the issue?