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PFT’s Week 14 picks

Philadelphia Eagles v Seattle Seahawks Getty Images

Well, I called my shot, and I almost got it.  Down 12 games with five weeks to go, Rosenthal and I disagreed on six games.  I declared Rosenthal to be screwed.

In the end, I was right on four.  Making him right on two.  Allowing me to whittle his edge down to 10 games.

I was 11-5, he was 9-7.  For the season, he’s 129-63.  I’m 119-73.

But I think he’s starting to get nervous.

Browns at Steelers

Florio’s take:  Colts McCoy is having a rough second season, and it gets no rougher than at Heinz Field.  The Browns have caught the Steelers napping in the past, but the Steelers are wide awake as they try to wrest the AFC North from the Ravens.

Florio’s pick:  Steelers 27, Browns 13.

Rosenthal’s take: With every lifeless performance, it becomes less likely that Colt McCoy will be the Browns starting quarterback next year. Not helping matters: McCoy still has three games left against the Steelers and Ravens.

Rosenthal’s pick: Steelers 30, Browns 13.

Colts at Ravens

Florio’s take:  The Colts return to Baltimore with the kind of record that would have allowed not to sneak out in the middle of the night but to walk away at high noon.  The Ravens have learned not to stub their toes against inferior foes.  And the Colts will move a step closer toward “clinching” the Andrew Luck pick.

Florio’s pick:  Ravens 30, Colts 14.

Rosenthal’s take: Dan Orlovsky was an upgrade from Curtis Painter, but let’s not get carried away. The Colts had three points through three quarters against the Patriots. This game pits the most physical team in the league against the least physical team. Orlovsky can only help so much.

Rosenthal’s pick: Ravens 28, Colts 6.

Falcons at Panthers

Florio’s take:  Carolina played the Falcons tough in Atlanta, but the Falcons’ margin for error is getting narrower — and the Panthers are getting more and more banged up.  Cam Newton will keep it interesting, but the Falcons will keep pushing toward the postseason.

Florio’s pick:  Falcons 30, Panthers 21.

Rosenthal’s take: This is a dangerous game for Atlanta. It’s the first time the Falcons will play outdoors since Week Four. Carolina has the better offense in this game and the better quarterback. Then again, the Panthers have an awful defense that is thinner than ever because of injuries.

Rosenthal’s pick: Falcons 28, Panthers 27.

Texans at Bengals

Florio’s take:  Every week, the Texans pick up a new injury — and a win.  They’re moving toward the first playoff berth in franchise history, and they’re aiming higher than that.  Though they may not be ready to win in Pittsburgh, Baltimore, or New England in January, they’ll be able to take care of business in Cincinnati in December.

Florio’s pick:  Texans 20, Bengals 13.

Rosenthal’s take: The Texans were lucky Matt Leinart got hurt. Rookie T.J. Yates showed more pocket presence and willingness to make tough throws in one game than Leinart did in six NFL seasons. Houston’s swarming defense gives the Texans a great chance to earn a bye.

Rosenthal’s pick: Texans 16, Bengals 12.

Vikings at Lions

Florio’s take:  Vikings defensive end Jared Allen says misery loves company, and he wants to make the Lions miserable.  But the Minnesota secondary is way too miserable to keep this one close.

Florio’s pick:  Lions 31, Vikings 14.

Rosenthal’s take: Jared Allen said on PFT Live that he’d love nothing more than to make the Lions miserable this week. The odds aren’t great unless Allen suddenly turns into a shutdown cornerback. If Tim Tebow can throw for 200 yards on 15 attempts against Minnesota, Matthew Stafford should go for 450.

Rosenthal’s pick: Lions 40, Vikings 30.

Buccaneers at Jaguars

Florio’s take:  Not too long ago, the Bucs were losing games because they were playing tough opponents.  Now the Bucs are losing games simply because they’re overmatched.  Mel Tucker gets his first NFL win, and Raheem Morris keeps building on a losing streak that will hit seven.

Florio’s pick:  Jaguars 24, Buccaneers 20.

Rosenthal’s take: How low can the Bucs defense go? They give up more yards-per-pass than any team in football. Blaine Gabbert is dead last in the category. Someone has to win this game, so I’ll roll with the Bucs. Jacksonville’s once strong defense has collapsed because of injuries.

Rosenthal’s pick: Bucs 27, Jaguars 20.

Eagles at Dolphins

Florio’s take:  The team that couldn’t win at home now hosts the team that can’t win anywhere.  But the extra time to prepare for the game operates like a mini-bye for the Eagles, and Andy Reid always wins when he has extra time — even if he may not have much time left in Philly.

Florio’s pick:  Eagles 28, Dolphins 17.

Rosenthal’s take: Last week, I stupidly picked against the Dolphins, the greatest 4-8 team in football. I luckily picked against the Eagles, the most disappointing 4-8 team in football. Andy Reid says his team needs more time because it’s so young. I’ll give them another week.

Rosenthal’s pick: Dolphins 22, Eagles 17.

Chiefs at Jets

Florio’s take:  The Jets continue to find a way to win when they have to.  And the Cassel-less Chiefs continue to be just good enough to beat teams that have also lost their starting quarterbacks.

Florio’s pick:  Jets 17, Chiefs 6.

Rosenthal’s take: The Jets are two-score favorites, which seems crazy because Mark Sanchez is the poor’s man Tim Tebow: He only plays well in the fourth quarter. (Matt Ryan, incidentally, is the rich man’s Tim Tebow.)  Tyler Palko is the poor man’s Tyler Thigpen.

Rosenthal’s pick: Jets 17, Chiefs 13.

Saints at Titans

Florio’s take:  The Saints have plenty of confidence when playing at home.  They need to develop more confidence when playing on the road.  They get a chance to do it this weekend against a surprisingly stout Titans team.  If the Saints can’t win in Nashville, they’ve got no shot in San Fran or Green Bay.

Florio’s pick:  Saints 31, Titans 27.

Rosenthal’s take: The Titans have the secondary — and the field — to slow the Saints down. New Orleans is 2-2 outdoors this year, including a loss to the Bucs and a narrow win in Carolina. Look for another narrow win Sunday, despite a big day from Chris Johnson.

Rosenthal’s pick: Saints 31, Titans 27.

Patriots at Redskins

Florio’s take:  Though still possessing plenty of flaws, the Pats are winning games.  And the Redskins aren’t.  While the D.C. defense could be able to keep the Patriots from ringing up a ton of points, the offense can’t hold up its end of the bargain, especially with the suspensions of Trent Williams and Fred Davis.

Florio’s pick:  Patriots 24, Redskins 14.

Rosenthal’s take:  The mediocre Redskins offense will be without its leading receiver (Fred Davis) and its best offensive lineman (Trent Williams) for the last four games. The Redskins defense has quietly decayed throughout the year. Combine those two factors with an ornery Pats team and you get a blowout.

Rosenthal’s pick: Patriots 37, Redskins 17.

49ers at Cardinals

Florio’s take:  Arizona has improved lately, but not enough to handle one of the best teams in the conference.  The Niners know that they need to keep winning in order to secure a first-round bye, and Jim Harbaugh knows not to ice his own kicker.  And not to kick to Patrick Peterson.

Florio’s pick:  49ers 20, Cardinals 16.

Rosenthal’s take: This is a tougher test for the 49ers than it appears. The Cardinals are playing great defense lately. Kevin Kolb is coming off his best game with his new team. That should make for a close one, but Arizona’s offensive line figures to get overwhelmed this week. Like it does every week.

Rosenthal’s pick: 49ers 20, Cardinals 14.

Bears at Broncos

Florio’s take:  The last time the Broncos hosted an NFC North team, the Broncos were blown off the field.  This time around, the outcome will be very different.  The Bears lack the punch on offense to score points, and Broncos offensive coordinator Mike McCoy knows how to exploit the holes in a Cover 2 defense, as he did last week in Minnesota.  (I wrote that entire take without mentioning Tim Tebow.  Until then.)

Florio’s pick:  Broncos 24, Bears 14.

Rosenthal’s take: The Broncos have made their own luck, but they are living a charmed life. The Dolphins dropped an onside kick that led to a win. The Chargers missed a game-winning field goal. Denver faced Carson Palmer in his first start, Minnesota without Adrian Peterson, and now takes on the Bears without Jay Cutler and Matt Forte. Greater forces are clearly at work.

Rosenthal’s pick: Broncos 26, Bears 14.

Raiders at Packers

Florio’s take:  In the latest Super Bowl rematch destined to end with the same outcome, the Raiders should be happy to match the score from the first meeting between these teams, way back in 1968.  Especially in light of the way the Raiders played last weekend in Miami.

Florio’s pick:  Packers 33, Raiders 14.

Rosenthal’s take: This game looked more dangerous for Green Bay a week ago. The Raiders looked more dangerous when their three most explosive offensive players were healthy. Oakland’s secondary doesn’t have enough depth or discipline to deal with the Packers. Who does?

Rosenthal’s pick: Packers 34, Raiders 24.

Bills at Chargers

Florio’s take:  Have a pair of 5-7 teams ever been any different?  In fact, the only similarity between the Bills and the Chargers is that both have been decimated by injuries.  Buffalo is falling apart, and the Chargers see an opportunity to reprise their 2008 late-season surge.

Florio’s pick:  Chargers 31, Bills 17.

Rosenthal’s take: Philip Rivers suddenly looked healthy because he had a full complement of weapons for the first time since Week One. Facing the Jaguars secondary didn’t hurt either. The Bills pass rush makes a lot of struggling quarterbacks look healthy too.

Rosenthal’s pick: Chargers 33, Bills 28.

Giants at Cowboys

Florio’s take:  If anyone thinks that the league wasn’t bracing for a lockout that would last into November, look no farther than the fact that the annual series between the big-market Giants and the big-country Cowboys didn’t begin until December 11.  It’s do-or-die for the Giants, and the Cowboys will be happy to oblige.

Florio’s pick:  Cowboys 30, Giants 28.

Rosenthal’s take: My head says the Cowboys are the better, healthier team. My preseason pick says the Giants are going to win the division (with the Cowboys as a wild card). I’m stubbornly sticking with Big Blue. The Cowboys love drama and there won’t be any drama left in this division if Dallas wins.

Rosenthal’s pick: Giants 24, Cowboys 21.

Rams at Seahawks

Florio’s take:  In April, this looked to be a pretty good game.  Now that it’s December, only the most passionate fans of the teams involved and the immediate family members of the players will be watching.  Even Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo may choose to cover his eyes.

Florio’s pick:  Seahawks 35, Rams 13.

Rosenthal’s take: The Rams offense didn’t even cross the opposing 35-yard line last week. Seattle’s defense isn’t dominant enough to pull that off, but it’s dangerous enough to hold the Rams out of the end zone for 60 minutes. A Monday night game like this is the reason why fantasy football was invented.

Rosenthal’s pick: Seahawks 24, Rams 9.

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52 Responses to “PFT’s Week 14 picks”
  1. rayriceisnice says: Dec 8, 2011 10:20 AM

    Haha good one on the ravens colts game lol

  2. waltdawg says: Dec 8, 2011 10:22 AM

    Pats over the Skins? I just woke up out of a coma from 1991…What have I missed??!?!??!

    I will say Skins 48 Pats 12

  3. nikkodawg says: Dec 8, 2011 10:32 AM

    and now takes on the Bears without Caleb Hanie and Matt Forte. Greater forces are clearly at work.

    Rosenthal’s pick: Broncos 26, Bears 14.

    - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – -

    What happened to Caleb Hanie? So now we’re and down to Josh McCown?

  4. swagjag says: Dec 8, 2011 10:39 AM

    I refuse to believe there is any defense bad enough to make the Jags offense look serviceable. They have put up 20 points just once this season and have got to be close to the record for most players placed on IR in NFL history.

  5. stoogy says: Dec 8, 2011 10:39 AM

    upset of the year raiders 34-31 over packers

  6. lenke08 says: Dec 8, 2011 10:40 AM

    i give colt another year with a decent line and atleast one wr that can widen the field.

  7. rskills says: Dec 8, 2011 10:41 AM

    pretty sure Rosenthal’s girlfriend is into Matt Leinart*

  8. broncobeta says: Dec 8, 2011 10:41 AM

    “and now takes on the Bears without Caleb Hanie and Matt Forte.”

    Is Hanie hurt too!?!?

  9. walker615 says: Dec 8, 2011 10:49 AM

    The Broncos didn’t face Kyle Boller. It’s ok to point out the luck they’ve had, but let’s not make things up to support the point, k?

  10. ace3hundred says: Dec 8, 2011 10:50 AM

    Rosenthal’s take: The Broncos have made their own luck, but they are living a charmed life. The Dolphins dropped an onside kick that led to a win. The Chargers missed a game-winning field goal. Denver faced Kyle Boller as a starter, Minnesota without Adrian Peterson, and now takes on the Bears without Caleb Hanie and Matt Forte. Greater forces are clearly at work.

    Rosenthal’s pick: Broncos 26, Bears 14

    ———————————————————-

    So no Caleb Hanie for the bears this week?

    Also Boller did not start that game against the Broncos. He started against the chiefs. The Broncos got all of Carson Palmer when they took it to the Raiders in their own house.

  11. southpaw2k says: Dec 8, 2011 10:51 AM

    Bold prediction: The Ravens defense back the Colts up all the way to their own end zone and Orlovsky has another “run outside his own end zone” play, resulting in a safety.

  12. orangecrush92 says: Dec 8, 2011 10:51 AM

    Rosenthal u r mistaken bout ur broncos post they faced carson palmer in the oakland game with oakland fresh off bye week and the bears are without jay cutler and matt forte caleb hanir WILL be starting =)

  13. 6ball says: Dec 8, 2011 10:56 AM

    .

    Who’s in New England’s secondary this week ? Costanza? Ron Paul ?

    .

  14. smauricio13 says: Dec 8, 2011 11:03 AM

    Rosenthal: Carolina has the better offense in this game and the better quarterback.

    Joking time!!!

    Falcons win easily!!

  15. hamcamnewton says: Dec 8, 2011 11:06 AM

    You’re both wrong about the Panthers/Falcons game. I will prevail.

  16. careerender56 says: Dec 8, 2011 11:16 AM

    Start picking against the spread and your records will matter.

  17. joshborden says: Dec 8, 2011 11:16 AM

    Hey everyone, just wanted to share a thought on the AFC South and get some feedback some from real football fans, (not the idiots I work with).

    This weekend, in my opinion, is going to be huge for the AFC South Playoff race. With Jacksonville & Indianapolis out of the running, it’s down to the Texans & Titans. This is a tough week for the Titans facing the Saints but with home field advantage they have a legitimate shot at winning. The Texans are facing a Bengals team that has a REAL chance at winning with the tandem of Dalton and Green.

    IF, and I say IF, the Texans lose and the Titans win this week….and given the remaining schedule for both teams….The AFC south could come down to a week 17 showdown between the two teams.

    Thumbs up for the Titans taking the division and thumbs down for the Texans taking the division.

    Thanks Everyone for the feedback.

  18. steelersownyou says: Dec 8, 2011 11:17 AM

    I love the colts this weekend! Orlovsky wikl pick that soft secondary of the Ravens apart! Colts 27 Ravens 23 Final….put your house on it!

  19. august589 says: Dec 8, 2011 11:20 AM

    “Denver faced Kyle Boller as a starter…”

    Incorrect. Carson Palmer started for the Raiders when Denver beat them in Oakland, 38-24. Boller hasn’t been seen nor heard from since the Kansas City debacle.

  20. quickwitt says: Dec 8, 2011 11:21 AM

    Carolina has the better offense and quarterback in this game. Really Rosenthal? I suspect you will be eating those words Sunday night, with no Tums around for relief.

  21. nyjalleffingday says: Dec 8, 2011 11:21 AM

    “Mark Sanchez is a poor mans Tim Tebow.” Really?

    If anything, Tim Tebow is a poor mans Sanchez, Mark has been pulling the “suck for 3 whole quarters and pull it together and win it in the 4th” schtick for 2 years now. Guess who leads the league in 4th quarter comebacks over the last three years? Hint: not Tebow.

  22. dickroy says: Dec 8, 2011 11:22 AM

    I honestly believe that the Colts plan to loose one more game than the next team closest to the most lost.
    I know Manning meant a lot to this team, but that is no excuse to be that bad. Right now they could win one and still get Luck, but they want to be sure.

  23. nunpuncher says: Dec 8, 2011 11:22 AM

    “Raheem Morris keeps *regressing and making excuses* on a losing streak that will hit seven.”

    Fixed

  24. Andre's Johnson says: Dec 8, 2011 11:22 AM

    joshborden, you are crazy

    Texans clinch the AFC South this weekend.

  25. metcalfer says: Dec 8, 2011 11:29 AM

    My upset pick of the Week: Titans over Saints. Chris Johnson has return to form. It will only happen if the Titans score TDs in the Redzone and not FGs.

  26. metcalfer says: Dec 8, 2011 11:59 AM

    steelersownyou says:
    Dec 8, 2011 11:17 AM
    I love the colts this weekend! Orlovsky wikl pick that soft secondary of the Ravens apart! Colts 27 Ravens 23 Final….put your house on it!

    I hope your not, cause your going to be homeless after Sunday. The problem is Orlovsky will be on his rear all day.

  27. zibikbeer says: Dec 8, 2011 12:05 PM

    Rosenthal’s take: Last week,I stupidly picked against the Dolphins, the greatest 4-8 team in football.

    ________________

    Coming from a Patriots fan, the Carolina Panthers would beg to differ…

  28. vikesfan320 says: Dec 8, 2011 12:10 PM

    Bears @ Broncos: “Greater forces are clearly at work.”

    By that, do you mean God or Tim Tebow?

  29. steelersownyou says: Dec 8, 2011 12:28 PM

    @metcalfer… I think Indy has a better chance of beating the Ravens than the titans do of beating the saints! But personally I think neither will or should happen, but you never know about the Ravens. They lay a lot of turds!

  30. b1unt3d says: Dec 8, 2011 12:30 PM

    Rosenthal’s take: Carolina has the better offense in this game and the better quarterback.
    —–

    Ok, you have officially lost all credibility.

  31. gosuhgo says: Dec 8, 2011 12:30 PM

    upset of the year – the dolphins beat the raiders worse than the packers will. It’s only going to be 33-0 this time.

  32. tritan306 says: Dec 8, 2011 12:31 PM

    steelersownyou says:
    Dec 8, 2011 11:17 AM
    I love the colts this weekend! Orlovsky wikl pick that soft secondary of the Ravens apart! Colts 27 Ravens 23 Final….put your house on it!

    I could have guessed your username just by reading your comment. Keep dreaming and I hope you aren’t a gambler.

  33. EJ says: Dec 8, 2011 12:55 PM

    The past two weeks Buffalo has caught up in the 4th quarter only to come up short on their last drive…
    This week that aggression will be taken out on the Chargers. Bills 35, Chargers 17.

  34. goawayeverybody says: Dec 8, 2011 12:58 PM

    Panthers 27, Falcons 16

  35. cruzzzzzznyg80 says: Dec 8, 2011 1:08 PM

    GMEN 34 Dallas 24 Mike Jenkins will have his hands full all night!

  36. kleppnasty says: Dec 8, 2011 1:09 PM

    zibikbeer says:
    Dec 8, 2011 12:05 PM
    Rosenthal’s take: Last week,I stupidly picked against the Dolphins, the greatest 4-8 team in football.

    ________________

    Coming from a Patriots fan, the Carolina Panthers would beg to differ…

    ________________

    not that it matters too much, but miami is the only losing team this year to be positive in the pt. differential. Cam Newton has been fun to watch, but that team’s defense is terrible. Miami seems to be doing well in all three phases this past month.

  37. iainnyj says: Dec 8, 2011 1:18 PM

    Sanchez has been winning games in the fourth quarter for three years, Tebow for two months and Mark is a “poor man’s Tim Tebow”?

    Drivel.

  38. 8man says: Dec 8, 2011 1:21 PM

    The Ravens will do to the Clots what the Patriots did and then do what the Patriots didn’t…blow the Clots out for the first three quarters and then humiliate them in the 4th.

    Ravens fans hate the Indy franchise and nothing less than an evisceration will do, given Indy’s current state.

  39. axespray says: Dec 8, 2011 1:39 PM

    wait a minute, mark sanchez leads the league in 4th qt comebacks for the last 2 or so years?

    man… so I guess that means Skip would want Sanchez ahead of Brees/Peyton/Rodgers/Brady/Eli/etc.

  40. southpaw2k says: Dec 8, 2011 1:47 PM

    steelersownyou says:
    Dec 8, 2011 11:17 AM
    I love the colts this weekend! Orlovsky wikl pick that soft secondary of the Ravens apart! Colts 27 Ravens 23 Final….put your house on it!

    ———————————————–

    You wouldn’t even bet $5 on the Colts winning Sunday yourself, much less your own house.

  41. rogeliocgb says: Dec 8, 2011 2:13 PM

    The Raiders very well could beat the Packers this week… just to lose next week to the Chiefs….

    Im a Raiders fan; but this up and downs have to come to an end…. The Miami game was disastrous.

  42. canadianvikingfaniii says: Dec 8, 2011 2:28 PM

    It is funny you mention for the Vikes to win, Jared Allen is going to have to become a corner back because our secondary is just that bad. On numerous occassions this year and the year before they have had Jared Allen break off into coverage and go man to man against RBs. He even has INTs doing that. He is much better than our CBs even in their own game.

  43. metcalfer says: Dec 8, 2011 2:35 PM

    steelersownyou The Saints are 6-0 at home and the are 3-3 on the road. They’ve lost at Tampa Bay (26-20) and at St. Louis (31-21). They almost lost at Carolina (30-27). The Ravens are 6-0 at home. But after saying that the Dolphins only win a few years ago was against the Ravens, but it was in Miami. If the Ravens run Ray Rice they win, but If they want to go pass happy with Joe Flacco they have a good change of losing.

  44. NoHomeTeam says: Dec 8, 2011 2:41 PM

    Loooove that ESPN Monday Night slate of games.

    If I’m not mistaken, ESPN pays significantly more per game aired than Fox, CBS, or NBC, but doesn’t have the option to flex out no-appeal contests like Seahawks-Rams, and the network will never, ever be in the rotation for the Super Bowl.

    How is this possible? Who makes a business deal like this? It’s like that “Milk Comes From Cows” ad, where the old, rich guy is sitting around with his cronies trying to figure out a new way to waste his money!

  45. earthtopft says: Dec 8, 2011 3:05 PM

    “Get up off the canvas, Balboa!”. Or whatever goddamn immigrant wave offspring name you go by. You coulda bin a contender.

  46. trollhammer20 says: Dec 8, 2011 3:46 PM

    I’m a Seahawk homer, but even I can’t imagine them posting 35 on the Rams, unless Leon takes one to the house on special teams and the defense get another pick six.

    With three offensive linemen out, and the Rams having a pretty decent pass rush (one of the few things they do well), Seattle will have to lean heavily on Lynch, and depend on their defense to neutralize the Ram offense (which should happen, given they only gave up a short-field TD pass in the game in St. Louis last month).

    16-3 is a far more likely result.

  47. vegasmasons says: Dec 8, 2011 7:19 PM

    cruzzzzzznyg80 says:
    Dec 8, 2011 1:08 PM
    GMEN 34 Dallas 24 Mike Jenkins will have his hands full all night!

    And get used to seeing #41′s backside chasing Giants receivers all night!

  48. gerard33 says: Dec 8, 2011 7:24 PM

    palko is the poor man’s tyler thigpen? whatever that means

  49. drfever73 says: Dec 9, 2011 12:05 AM

    I agree with most of the picks, maybe not the score, but I’m taking the Bengals over the Texans. 24-10

  50. sportsguybayarea says: Dec 9, 2011 12:48 AM

    does steelersownyou only watch steelers games??? man i can never be a “homer” only fan. i just love watching football every game a can catch. i cant imagine only watching my team’s games. give credit where credit is due man! this is pro football were talking about. not saying niners will win but you and the rest of the steelers nation are in for a rude awakening come monday night at san fran. niners have one of the nastiest d’s in the league right now. CANT WAIT!! steelers obviously have a legit d too but niners are NOT the chiefs

  51. CKL says: Dec 10, 2011 8:04 PM

    At 14.5 mill this year, Sanchez isn’t the “poor man” to many other players let alone Tebow!

  52. b1unt3d says: Dec 11, 2011 4:44 PM

    —————————————————–
    b1unt3d says: Dec 8, 2011 12:30 PM

    “Rosenthal’s take: Carolina has the better offense in this game and the better quarterback.”

    Ok, you have officially lost all credibility.

    10 Thumbs Up – 11 Thumbs Down
    ——————————————————-

    Ok, so..

    320 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

    vs

    276 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

    K, that’s what I thought..

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