No “breakthrough” yet between Welker, Pats

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As the franchise-tag window opens, the player on the Patriots most likely to receive it is receiver Wes Welker.

The best way to avoid it is to do a long-term deal.  But Ian Rapoport of the Boston Herald reports that, to date, no “breakthrough” has been made.

The team and the player surely disagree on his value.  He has generated tremendous stats over the years, with 554 catches in five seasons — including 111 in the season that included a Week One torn ACL for Tom Brady.  But Welker isn’t regarded as a field-stretching, game-plan-busting talent.

Welker’s desire to stay will be a factor, even though his agent, David Dunn, may prefer to see Welker prop up one of the various Dunn clients who play quarterback elsewhere (e.g., Mark Sanchez, Matt Cassel, Carson Palmer).  But if the gap is big enough, Welker will be inclined to test the market.

And then the question becomes whether the Patriots would use the franchise tag, giving Welker $9.4 million or so for one season.  That number would grow to $11.28 million in 2013, absent a long-term deal.

Given those realities, it’s hard to envision Welker taking less than $20 million guaranteed, since he’d make more than that in the next two seasons under the franchise tag.

In the end, the best way for the Patriots and Welker to gauge his value will be to see what he can get elsewhere.  The biggest risk with that, however, is that he’ll choose to take what he can get elsewhere.

39 responses to “No “breakthrough” yet between Welker, Pats

  1. Welker will be tagged and then sign a long term contract the same as they did with Wilfork and Mankins. The other day Mike Reiss of ESPN Boston had a good post and a fair contract for Welker , 4years 36 Million with 22 million guaranteed.

    This will be worked out and I am more interested to see what moves outside the organization makes in free agency. Impact defensive player.

  2. He’s not going anywhere. He’s way too smart for that. He’s a system wide receiver and he knows it.

    He knows first hand from his time in Miami what happens when you play in a system that doesn’t play to your strengths or doesn’t have a QB that can get you the ball.

  3. .

    The ball didn’t just magically appear in Welker’s hand 122 times this season. Brady put it there. Things may be different if Blaine Gabbert or Rex Grossman is doing thw pitching.

    .

  4. And here’s a fun fact and another reason I don’t think he’ll leave:

    Even though it seems like he’s been there forever, Wes Welker has zero super bowl rings.

  5. HUGE Welker fan. dont want to see him in any other uniform then a Pats uniform for the rest of his playing days.

    With that said, lets keep in mind that there exists a player on the Pats roster that is fully capable of filling in for Welker if he were to leave. Julian Edleman may not be wes welker, but if you look back to the Playoff game against the Ravens in 09 after welker tore his knee up, Edleman had 6 recpetions 2 TDs. nothing special, but i think he could fill in nicely given more playing time.

    with all that being said….. heres to wishing for a welker, Lloyd, Vincent Jackson receiving core next year.

    would also entertain the idea of Moss. lol

  6. So the Patriots can use the tag on Welker and everything is fine and dandy.

    Yet if the Ravens use the tag on Rice, he isn’t happy and the walls are crashing down on the owner / GM

    Makes perfect sense…

  7. Welker should have an extra bonus to be earned next year where he gets to double his contract if the Patriots don’t get a legitimate outside threat to take the pressure off him.

    It would probably be a LTBE bonus…

  8. Perhaps Welker has grown tired of the crap he has taken from Patriots fans for not lassoing Brady’s frisbee toss in the SB. But I doubt he will leave the Pats, who have hardwired those short 10 yd passes to him in their gameplan. He might never see such attention somewhere else.

  9. Give the Pats the hometown discount.

    They have a chance to win a championship, and youre playing with one of the greatest QBs ever.

    I would literally take half as much money to play with the Pats over someone like the Chiefs or Dolphins.

  10. Hopefully Wes understands that his skills are uniquely suited to the Patriots. His long term prospects are far better in New England.

  11. Of course the Pats tag him…but no more. Little guy that gets tackled by safeties and LBs 120 times a season. He is another ACL away from the retired list.

  12. Wes Welker is not just a system wide receiver. When Wes was with the Dolphins he was the go to guy when the Dolphins needed a first down. The Dolphins did not have Tom Brady but the point is that Welker is a great receiver and the Patriots will pay him so that he stays in New England. Belichick knew how tough Welker was to stop from playing against him twice each season. Belichick knew what the Dolphins GM at the time, Randy Mueller was ignorant of. How good Wes really is!

  13. Bozo and his infamous stupidity at it again….one of the highest paid QB’s, Offensive Lineman, Defensive Lineman in the league and it’s the cheapskate Pats. Riiiiight, engage your brain Bozo before hitting enter to post a blog you blithering idiot.

  14. I would love to see him with the Cowboy’s…But that’s not going to happen. Seeing him in any uniform but the Pats would just look wrong. But it could be gotton used to, just like Manning in a Cowboys uniform next year:-)

  15. You would think Brady would speak up, heck look how good Welker has added up Brady’s stats with the short pass and yards after. They don’t want to lose this guy.

  16. .

    @bozothejetsfan

    “cheapskate patriots ”

    I think not chuckles. The Patriots are near the top in percent of cap money spent every year. Their philosophy does not focus on paying Brady, Welker and have the rest of the team consist of some guys who look good in uniform. They try to build a 53 man roster with depth, especially near the bottom. Therefore, they try not to overpay at the top.

    How often in a key December game is it reserve v reserve? Come to think of it the NYG have a similar philosophy.

    .

    .

  17. They would be stupid to let him walk. He is way too good to be disrespected with a low ball offer. No matter how white julian edelman is, you can’t make him wes welker

  18. great player but not a big time play maker. good for short yardage.
    he will not get big money with anyone. pats are better off letting him walk. then they can sign V jackson. thats what they needed in the superbowl.

  19. Not sure how much value he has to the Patriots. Can he double as a defensive back?

    I am sure they will come to some sort of agreement, he has got some of the surest hands and fits well in the offense the Patriots have.

  20. realitypolice says:
    Feb 20, 2012 2:05 PM
    He’s not going anywhere. He’s way too smart for that. He’s a system wide receiver and he knows it.
    ——————————————————–
    I love you morons who say that Brady is a “system” quarterback, Welker is a “system” receiver, … etc.

    Then you say that Belichick is just an average coach lucky enough to have Brady and Welker.

    lol.

    Which one is it, idiots? Are they simply products of Belichicks “system”, or is he lucky to have these talented players?

    Can’t be BOTH.

  21. Pat fans crack me up. What makes you so sure he will stay? What have the Pats won recently. Why have the loyalty for an organization that cannot win the big game, or pay their players. You would think at this point in his career, you can throw out the loyalty crap, because they want fianancial security. What player wouldn’t want that. As fans we want all of our players that have made contributions throughout the years to stay with our teams, but this is a business. Your acting as if he owes anything to the fans. What he owes is to take care of his family.

  22. mikemc89 says:

    “HUGE Welker fan. dont want to see him in any other uniform then a Pats uniform for the rest of his playing days”

    No offense, but the idea that Edelman could replace Welker is delusional. Julian cannot get the seperation Welker gets consistently. Nor can he read defenses and adjustt routes in lockstep with Brady like Wes does virtually every play.

    Welker wants to play with Brady and for the Patriots. The Patriots want that as well. This is business. It will get done, hopefullly with less acrimony than the Mankins deal. The problem is that the Patriots want to pay for future value and Wes, like all players, also wants to make up for what he didn’t get paid in past years. That makes agreeing on a contract tough.

  23. The Patriots have been to five Super Bowls in ten years, by the way…..

    why don’t MORE teams have a “system” like that?????

  24. I’d actually like to see Brady step up and redo his deal. Give back $4 mil a year which would make it easier to give Wes a little better deal and make it easier to go get Dashon Goldson and B Lloyd in Free Agency. Then you have an outside the numbers receiver who actually can grasp the pats playbook and a stud safety to go with Chung to anchor the defensive backfield. Focus the draft on speed and trade picks to future years. The Pats are a couple of players away from being able to beat teams like the ravens, steelers, giants everytime. And the further development of the young o line guys and d line guys is also very important and the Pats have been good in that regard in spite of misses they have had with the outside the numbers players.

  25. cowboyhater says:

    “Pat fans crack me up . . . why have the loyalty for an organization that cannot win the big game, or pay their players.”

    It is a fact that the Patriots pay their key players well. They just don’t sign wastefull contracts.

    Circumstantial evidence, and statements by many of the players themselves, suggests most key Patriot players want to stay. The players that leave, by and large, had weaknesses that limited what the club was willing to pay. Is anyone doubting Assante Samuel, despite his exceptional ball skills, has issues with tackling?

    I know it is psychologically comforting for fans of other franchises to speak ill of the Patriots but there is a reason why they win consistently, have gone to 5 Super Bowls in the last 11 years, and why their own players and players from other teams want to play for them. The same reason the oddsmakers make them a favorite to win Super Bowl 47.

  26. Look, I’m a Pats fan and don’t expect WW to have any loyalty. I will miss him tremendously if he goes, but I will understand. There aren’t many regular people who would turn down more money while still doing a job they love for another company. I hope he wants to stay because his value is as much the type of spirit, example and work ethic he has as it is his great value to the team as a player.

    In my opinion, when a WR fits this well into the team, they need to pay a little bit of a premium for him because it’s near impossible to find guys who work well with what’s expected of receivers in the Pats’ system. Hoping BB has learned form the Branch fiasco and letting Gaffney walk after a 1 year deal in 08 that those type of WRs do NOT grow on trees.

    WW said when Samuel left that Samuel was chasing money instead of rings so I hope he feels the same now as he did then but I don’t EXPECT that.

  27. Perfectly well said 6ball…finally SOMEONE “gets it”!!!

    Everyone else…get a clue. thats why your team will continue to suffer and the Pats will be contenders year in and out.

    Plus how did the Pats do when they lost Brady opening day….umm 11-5 folks. Lets hear about how they “missed” the playoffs though!

    Once again, competitive, because they know how to spend and NEVER overspend for value. They build a team with a very strong middle and lower class because of the injury rates.

    How did the Colts do when Manning went down? Keep overpaying for a strong upperclass NFL. Surprised how teams still fail to see this concept!

  28. I expect he’ll be tagged… Then Welker will need to determine if he should sit out until week 10. The team has leverage and so does he. Both may use it.

    The Pats need a deep threat WR and while thats not Lloyd, if they do sign Lloyd, Welker could find himself more expendable if he’s asking too much.

  29. pftcensorssuck says:
    Feb 20, 2012 4:40 PM
    realitypolice says:
    Feb 20, 2012 2:05 PM
    He’s not going anywhere. He’s way too smart for that. He’s a system wide receiver and he knows it.
    ——————————————————–
    I love you morons who say that Brady is a “system” quarterback, Welker is a “system” receiver, … etc.

    Then you say that Belichick is just an average coach lucky enough to have Brady and Welker.

    lol.

    Which one is it, idiots? Are they simply products of Belichicks “system”, or is he lucky to have these talented players?

    Can’t be BOTH.

    __
    It’s more the system…but unfortunately for Belichick, the greatest accomplishments of his “system” are tainted by the Spygate scandal. Very good, but not great “system”…very good, but not great players. So, YES, it CAN be both.

    Let’s see BB and his “system” win an untainted title…until then, he will continue to be branded as the cheater that he was punished for being. 0-2 post-Spygate…none of the regular season wins mean squat without a title to anchor them.

  30. pftcensorssuck says: Feb 20, 2012 4:52 PM
    The Patriots have been to five Super Bowls in ten years, by the way…..

    why don’t MORE teams have a “system” like that?????
    ______________________________________

    The other teams don’t cheat to get the first 3 SBs. They lost the 2 they didn’t cheat,in case you’d forgotten. Don’t hate the Pats, just stating facts.
    3 SBs won by 3 points each, 2 SBs lost by 3 & 4 points. Sounds like cheating is worth about a TD a game.

  31. Some of you are overstating his value tremendously. He is a good player. But he plays in a system that is perfect for him. Tom Brady just took two nobody TE’s and made them into stars because he is a HOF QB. Take alook at those championship teams. Deion Branch was the best reciever on those teams. And Deion Branch is not an elite reciever.

    there is a reason he wasnt a star on the Dolphins. He knows that. This isnt Larry Fitzgerald. He is a solid talent but my guess is he gets the franchise tag for one year if he is looking for huge money. The Pats might be under the cap but I think everyone can agree the priority in the offseaosn is improving that defense

  32. raqaiw says:
    Feb 20, 2012 6:08 PM
    pftcensorssuck says: Feb 20, 2012 4:52 PM
    The Patriots have been to five Super Bowls in ten years, by the way…..

    why don’t MORE teams have a “system” like that?????
    ______________________________________

    The other teams don’t cheat to get the first 3 SBs. They lost the 2 they didn’t cheat,in case you’d forgotten. Don’t hate the Pats, just stating facts.
    3 SBs won by 3 points each, 2 SBs lost by 3 & 4 points. Sounds like cheating is worth about a TD a game.

    __
    They wouldn’t have done it for so many years before getting caught if it wasn’t worth something.

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