Didn’t the nuns teach you that the way to deal with your Bill Belichick fetish was to wear sandpaper mittens to bed?

An annual defensive back bust in the first 2 rounds, and bi annually WR bust, and QBs who don’t even get activated for games and can’t beat a UDFA out as a backup. You figure they’d trade some of their 30 draft picks to move up and get some real talent.
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While I tend to agree overall with your assessment of Belechick’s drafts as of late, he has had some gems too. And the Pats just went to the SB again, so lets not all act like they’ve gone 4-12 that last couple seasons. If Mayo/McCourtey didn’t regress so much we all may be sining a diff tune. Barring injuries, it will be fun to see how Ridley, Vereen, Ras Dowling, Spikes and Co turn out this year. I say they take a flyer on J.Jenkins in the draft if he falls, the Pats have enough veteran/coaching leadership to give it a try.

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We have been hearing that for the last six years.

An annual defensive back bust in the first 2 rounds, and bi annually WR bust, and QBs who don’t even get activated for games and can’t beat a UDFA out as a backup. You figure they’d trade some of their 30 draft picks to move up and get some real talent.

So I can only imagine that a great GM has every player gridded out, with all the constraints in place(global salary cap/floors, collectively bargained player minimums), what their worth is, interconnectivity with other players, etc etc etc. And this is out over 3-4 years. So it becomes a concrete, fiscally bounded block. And the decisions pretty much decide themselves once all the characteristics are fed into The Matrix and a specific scenario is pinged against it.

So signing up a Welker, or a Forte, or a Brees, or anybody depends not only this year, but all the years ahead and the ever present constraints of all years. The decision to sign Welker at X amount for three years might be impacted by the salary FLOOR constraint in year 3. Who knows?

It’s about future worth through the gauntlet of future fiscal reality and 50 constraints. If the most logical max offer is 1 year $9M, then that is what it is.

Anyway, the arguments that player Y has been a “stud” over the last five years means nothing about how they will play over the next 2-3 years. Sports have pretty much figured out the most valuable period for players is 25-27, the crossover of the most youth coupled with experience. Maybe about 1% buck that reality and have long, HOF caliber careers. So I am sure that being 31 in the 99% plays a big role in the basic assessment of value in Welker’s case. If Belichick was as sentimental as the average fan, he’d have no rings and losing record.

1. Welker can elect to sign or not sign his one year salary guarantee. The Patriots will not use undue influence (monetary or nonmonetary) to force his hand.

2. ThePatriots will not sign Welker prior to him signing the tender (the Asanate Samuel situation led to a much harder line with Logan Mankins) unless he agrees to their number. Nor is their any chance that the Patriots will withdraw their franchise contract tender and allow Welker to immediately revert to an unrestricted free agent.

3. The Patriots signed their insurance policy in Anthony Gonzalez. Their back-up to the back-up plan is Julian Edelman. Neither player is close to Welker but the Patriots just need these players to get them through the start of the season when the franchised player player has the leverage to sit out. Welker is unlikley to sit out any games and surely won’t sit out the whole season. Worst case, the Patriots would have Welker back healthy for the stretch run and playoffs. This strategy only backfires if the Patriots have a rough start and fail to make the playoffs. However, the chance of Welker forgoing half of his 2012 franchise tender (like Mankins) is nil.

In short, this is a non-story.

Hard to argue he’s slowing down when he just had the best season of his career. But hey, it’s “just stats” it’s not like he’s a game changing player right?

And there you have it.

We all love Welker as Pats fans, but Bill isn’t going to tie up big money on him for years into the future.

That’s not part of the formula for keeping the team in contention every year.

Welker is looking for that ride into the sunset contract that most teams don’t give anymore, especially teams that have a dynamic duo at tight end.

Good luck Wes, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.

If their deals were that easy to finish they would have been signed before they were franchised.