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Count on plenty of busts from the 2012 first round

Though the folks breaking down the draft this weekend kept telling us that nearly every player picked has been and will continue to be a great football player, the truth is that plenty of them won’t be.

So who will the busts be?  The truth is that no one knows.

What I do know is that this was one of the topics on Monday’s PFT Live.  I also know that, if you missed it, you can see it now.

I don’t know whether you will watch, but I do know that I will be very grateful if you do.  And I definitely know that some of you will post a comment pointing out how much they think it sucks.

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48 Responses to “Count on plenty of busts from the 2012 first round”
  1. beerbaron says: Apr 30, 2012 5:09 PM

    Coples.

  2. aigraiders says: Apr 30, 2012 5:09 PM

    Luke Kuechly will never live up to his draft status. I look at his hilites and I dont see him shedding blockers at all. Nothing on his youtube impresses me. He’s going to be a fast undersized LB that will become a journeyman LB.

  3. aigraiders says: Apr 30, 2012 5:10 PM

    Poe is a classic looks like Tarzan and plays like Jane. He didnt play in the SEC and couldnt even dominate inferior talent. How can he dominate the pros?

  4. tjh9985 says: Apr 30, 2012 5:12 PM

    Dontari Poe has a 75% chance of being one.

  5. jenniferxxx says: Apr 30, 2012 5:14 PM

    The Skins better pray that RG3 isn’t one. If he busts it’ll be years before they recover.

  6. cometophillyforthecrack says: Apr 30, 2012 5:14 PM

    Is there ever pick that Mike Mayock doesnt love?

  7. daysend564 says: Apr 30, 2012 5:15 PM

    Bruce Irvin (LB – SEA)
    Chandler Jones (DE – NE)
    Ryan Tannehill (QB – MIA)
    AJ Jenkins (WR – SF)
    David Wilson (RB – NYG)

  8. rc33 says: Apr 30, 2012 5:16 PM

    To me, A.J. Jenkins is just screaming “pedestrian Wide Receiver.”

  9. phillybirds says: Apr 30, 2012 5:16 PM

    Eagles first round pick Fletcher Cox. Mark my words. I would love to be wrong but i’m not. So please.. don’t hate.

  10. fcmlefty1 says: Apr 30, 2012 5:17 PM

    Coples and Poe are likely candidates. Mark Barron would have to be one heck of a safety to justify going in the top 10. (I think he’ll be the case of being good, but still not living up to the lofty draft status). Weeden is behind the 8 ball due to age – tough to put together a multiple pro bowl type of career when you are probably looking at only a 7 year career at the very best. And can’t completely discount RGII not passing the 60-27-26 test – QB’s who don’t pass it have a much higher bust rate.

  11. icdogg says: Apr 30, 2012 5:18 PM

    Depends on what you call a bust. IMO you can’t be a “bust” after the 2nd round and to be classified a bust, you have to be half as good or less the average caliber of player taken at that draft position.

    Going by that standard, less than 20% of picks are busts.

    The problem isn’t usually that the players bust, it’s that the fans expect more than they have any reason to.

  12. cowboyscountry says: Apr 30, 2012 5:21 PM

    Griffin, Tannehill, Poe, Brockers, Irvin, Ingram, Wright, Weeden, Smith, Jenkins, Wilson. All 1st Round busts.

  13. vtmem says: Apr 30, 2012 5:25 PM

    daysend,

    Some of those guys will surprise you. Tannehill may not be Marino II, but no one will be like him. Remember, the player and the system much match for there to be success. I think that it does in Miami.

  14. blacknole08 says: Apr 30, 2012 5:30 PM

    I know who is not gonna be a bust: mark barron. That kid is a baller.

  15. phillybirds says: Apr 30, 2012 5:30 PM

    Why does every1 think Fletcher Cox will be good? An athletic and speedy defensive tackle that is shy of 300 lbs?… Hmm… Sounds injury prone and weak to me.

  16. nflfan2 says: Apr 30, 2012 5:31 PM

    With the rookie wage caps in place, there should be fewer busts. High round draftees will be more motivated to get the super pay day.

    Sad, but true.

  17. jhart615 says: Apr 30, 2012 5:32 PM

    Tannehill…need I say more?

  18. goldrush36 says: Apr 30, 2012 5:32 PM

    I would say Poe and Irvin have the biggest chances. For those knocking Aj Jenkins watch the tape and how quick he separates then how long he has to wait on the punts er I mean passes to get there. He had one of the worst Qb’s in all of college football and still managed to account for half of their total receiving yards and break 5 touchdowns for 50+ yds

  19. mf7krime says: Apr 30, 2012 5:34 PM

    RGIII bust potential: HIGH

  20. daysend564 says: Apr 30, 2012 5:45 PM

    @vtmem

    That’s where I have issue with your thinking. If you are going to spend a #8 pick on a guy, that guy had better become a great player – not “someone that will suprise you”. Miami gives up on their QBs too quickly for him to cement himself, and will get the bust tag.

    I forgot to add Weeden, since he’s a 1st rounder. He has a very small window to get to that elite level.

    Take either of these guys in the 2nd round, I’m probably not so hard on them.

  21. hawkforlife says: Apr 30, 2012 5:46 PM

    Since the so called experts pick Irvin to be a flop before he even starts I guess he can’t be a bust since he’s got nowhere to go but up.

  22. rosesacl says: Apr 30, 2012 5:47 PM

    Andrew Luck

  23. fatsmcnadds says: Apr 30, 2012 5:50 PM

    Griffin is gonna be a first round bust your ass,dam what just happened.So if that’s your definition of bust so be it!

  24. blackqbwhiterb says: Apr 30, 2012 5:51 PM

    I’m thrilled the Redskins took Kirk Cousins, great QB at a 4th round price, that way, you, just in case……

  25. arlingtonsynn says: Apr 30, 2012 5:59 PM

    Dre Kirkpatrick.

    Product of an amazing college D where its hard to tell which plays were made from his skill or from the line busting up the opposing Oline.

    I think one of the best picks will turn out to be Dont’a Hightower. I wish the Pats would continue stealthily screwing up their drafts but I think this was the pick they nailed.

    I also fear Irvin will prove to be a solid pick for the Seacawks. He will be asked to do the one thing he happens to be very good at. Then he will do it 4 times a year against the Rams Oline and the Cards Oline.

  26. vanmorrissey says: Apr 30, 2012 6:11 PM

    Hey aigraiders, coming from someone who can’t even spell ‘highlights’ right, I’d say you already busted out….of grade school spelling.

  27. chiadam says: Apr 30, 2012 6:16 PM

    Weeden, because he’s 46 years old.

  28. scooter7777777 says: Apr 30, 2012 6:18 PM

    arlingtonsynn says: Apr 30, 2012 5:59 PM

    “I wish the Pats would continue stealthily screwing up their drafts but I think this was the pick they nailed.”
    —————————————————

    Nine straight seasons of 10+ wins … yeah, they’re really screwing up their drafts. I think not.

    Even IF they screwed up picks here and there, consistently good teams like the Pats can afford the luxury of making some bad picks. Because whoever
    they drafted that is still on the roster has helped them continue their success. Don’t expect it to happen this year, either. Pats are clearly the team to beat in the AFC.

  29. tialen says: Apr 30, 2012 6:21 PM

    Ok, i’m watching this, just because you asked nicely

  30. daysend564 says: Apr 30, 2012 6:21 PM

    @arlingtonsynn

    Replace Kirkpatrick with the name Barron and you’ve got yourself a deal. He was a product of a defense that could get after the QB. He had issues covering at the college level, he’ll be out of his element when asked to do it in the NFL. He won’t be able to play in the box as the NFL is in it’s current transition to a passing league.

  31. asmishler says: Apr 30, 2012 6:27 PM

    “Eugene Monroe, is he even still in the league?”

    I’m not a Jags fan, but I’m informed enough to know that Monroe has become one of the better LTs in football. And I don’t get paid to write about pro football on a daily basis.

    There goes Mike Florio’s credibility.

  32. mancave001 says: Apr 30, 2012 6:34 PM

    phillybirds says:
    Apr 30, 2012 5:16 PM
    Eagles first round pick Fletcher Cox. Mark my words. I would love to be wrong but i’m not. So please.. don’t hate.

    phillybirds says:
    Apr 30, 2012 5:30 PM
    Why does every1 think Fletcher Cox will be good? An athletic and speedy defensive tackle that is shy of 300 lbs?… Hmm… Sounds injury prone and weak to me.
    ————————————-

    There is nothing to suggest he’s overrated, nor to suggest he’s “weak.” Either you’re trolling or you just know what you’re talking about.

  33. chuckxx says: Apr 30, 2012 6:48 PM

    POE FOR SURE!!!!!!

  34. oreo51 says: Apr 30, 2012 6:54 PM

    RG3! Half of all first round QB’s bust. The expectations are very high. He doesn’t read defenses. His game is all throw the bubble screen or pull it down and run. Good thing Washington took Cousins just in case.

  35. jakek2 says: Apr 30, 2012 6:57 PM

    Tannehill and his gum chewing on the stage has bust written all over him. The Dolphins should have taken the card back once they saw him chewing the gum. Toolbox.

  36. arlingtonsynn says: Apr 30, 2012 7:01 PM

    scooter7777777 says:
    Apr 30, 2012 6:18 PM
    arlingtonsynn says: Apr 30, 2012 5:59 PM

    “I wish the Pats would continue stealthily screwing up their drafts but I think this was the pick they nailed.”
    —————————————————

    Nine straight seasons of 10+ wins … yeah, they’re really screwing up their drafts. I think not.
    ________________________

    Let’s call a spade a spade. The Pats drafts have sucked. The Pats still have the best coach in the game, Brady who has become so much more than a game manager, and they keep raping other teams in trades (Welker).

    My post was not that the Pats suck as their record disproves that. I am saying that since Pioli left you aren’t seeing the same ratio of ‘hits’ in the draft as say… the Ravens, Packers, or Steelers.

  37. kronix7 says: Apr 30, 2012 7:02 PM

    Haha I love how couch potatoes sit and point who will be bust and who won’t. Priceless

  38. billhicks666 says: Apr 30, 2012 7:25 PM

    cowboyscountry says:

    “Griffin, Tannehill, Poe, Brockers, Irvin, Ingram, Wright, Weeden, Smith, Jenkins, Wilson. All 1st Round busts.”

    You forgot Claiborne, Cowboys fan.

  39. jharmon64 says: Apr 30, 2012 7:34 PM

    I won’t watch. We all can’t view videos.

  40. phillybirds says: Apr 30, 2012 7:41 PM

    mancave001 says:

    There is nothing to suggest he’s overrated, nor to suggest he’s “weak.” Either you’re trolling or you just know what you’re talking about.

    =============================

    nice response. i’m not trolling, im just tired of everyone assuming he’s an amazing pick. this is the nfl not college. we’ll see what happens. like i said i hope i’m wrong!

  41. sschmiggles says: Apr 30, 2012 7:55 PM

    Let’s call a spade a spade. The Pats drafts have sucked. The Pats still have the best coach in the game, Brady who has become so much more than a game manager, and they keep raping other teams in trades (Welker).
    _______________________

    Since Pioli left, they’ve drafted Sebastian Vollmer, Rob Gronkowski, Pat Chung, McCourty, Stevan Ridley, Nate Solder, Marcus Cannon, Brandon Spikes, and Jerod Mayo, and Aaron Hernandez.

    If anything their drafts have gotten much better since Pioli left, and the Chiefs’ drafts have sucked.

  42. pigskin28 says: Apr 30, 2012 7:58 PM

    Soon as I saw this post I thought, wow, second post since saturday about nothing.
    Then came the comments and voila, the dufuses are swinging for the fences.

  43. jimmylions says: Apr 30, 2012 8:19 PM

    As a Lions fan, I’ve seen my share of first round busts. Some were because the player lacked maturity and thought being a first round pick meant pre-ordained NFL success. Some were because inept coaches turned a talented athlete into a bust.

    There are so many intangibles (especially injuries) that every player has a potential to be a bust.

    The two pieces of advice that all the first round picks need to take to heart is 1) do not to take this opportunity lightly, and 2) save most of that money you’re making.

  44. raiderapologist says: Apr 30, 2012 8:51 PM

    The Raiders have more first round picks on their roster than any other team. That tells you all you need to know about the subject.

  45. stunzeed5 says: Apr 30, 2012 9:12 PM

    The only “bust” RGIII will be involved in is the one of his head that will be going to Canton.

  46. coltsluckdynasty says: Apr 30, 2012 9:39 PM

    Look, my team drafted luck, and the skins drafted RG3. I don’t think for one minute either one of those players are going to be busts by any stretch of the imagination. I talk some smack every now and then, but honestly, I think they both will be amazing. I really think that cousins was the steal of the draft. Being in big 10 country, I watched a lot of Kirk cousins over his career, and he is impressive. I laughed when the skins took him in the 4th, but now that I really think about it… It was a great pick. If an injury would occur, then they have a contingency plan.. Great pick… I think the biggest bust will be tannehill, I don’t know why, I just don’t see him being great. I’m happy the dolphins are excited, and I hope he’s great, but something isn’t there…. Dwayne Allen tight end Clemson… Watch out, I like him more than Fleener…

  47. jettyrat says: Apr 30, 2012 10:39 PM

    I thought the Hokey Pokey was what it was all about…..

  48. vtmem says: May 1, 2012 9:15 AM

    @jettyrat,

    More like Hocus Pocus

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