Packers’ website likes Aaron Rodgers’ chances to hit 6,000 yards

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Before 2011, only two quarterbacks in NFL history had passed for 5,000 yards in a season. In 2011, three quarterbacks hit 5,000 yards. So how far are we from a 6,000-yard passing season?

Vic Ketchman of Packers.com thinks we’re not far at all, and that Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers is a good bet to do it.

I not only think it’s attainable, I think it’s predictable,” Ketchman writes. “Aaron Rodgers threw for 4,643 yards last season. Had he played in the finale against the Lions, he would’ve blown past the 5,000-yard mark. If the Packers play in more shootout type games, as the Lions game was, I think Rodgers would be a strong candidate to crack the 6,000-yard mark. He clearly can play that kind of game.”

A 6,000-yard season may happen in the NFL eventually, but I think 6,000 yards is a lot further away than Vic Ketchman seems to believe. First of all, it’s possible that 2011 was an outlier in terms of passing numbers, and not the start of a trend toward 5,000-yard seasons becoming commonplace. Maybe defenses were behind the game last year after the lockout, and maybe this year we’ll start to see some defensive adjustments that rein in some of the league’s best passers.

And even if last year’s passing numbers are the new normal, there’s still a lot of distance between Drew Brees’s new record of 5,476 yards and Rodgers (or anyone) reaching 6,000 yards. Asking a quarterback to produce a 10 percent increase on Brees’s spectacular season is a tall order. To reach 6,000 yards, a quarterback would need to average 375 yards a game. A 375-yard game is still relatively rare, and a quarterback averaging 375 yards a game, every game, for a 16-game season, is extremely difficult.

After Dan Marino set a record with 5,084 yards in 1984, it took 27 seasons for Brees to break that record. It could easily be another quarter century or more before anyone tops Brees’s record. A 6,000-yard season is probably a long way off.

63 responses to “Packers’ website likes Aaron Rodgers’ chances to hit 6,000 yards

  1. Even though the Packers have become a pass first, run is an afterthought, type of offense, the weather will prevent a Packer QB from ever reaching that goal. Packer QBs don’t have the luxury of playing in climate controlled conditions for most of the season like the Mannings and the Breeses.

  2. I’m sure there is some fool in Houston predicting Arian Foster’s 3,000 yard season, too. Those folks are a little too close to the fire to be considered reasonable or reliable. But, man, I’d really love to see Arian get 3,000 yards…..

  3. No way. He missed Jennings on that wide open pass.

    Anyone who misses a wide open dude probably isn’t ever going to throw for 6,000 yards.

  4. With all their weapons…..Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers have the best shot at achieving 6,000 yards

  5. As a Packers fan, I hope Rodgers comes nowhere near 6,000 yards. The point in building our defense this off-season was to prevent shootouts. And while I love the fact we have a QB who some feel could hit the 6,000 mark, I’d rather be able to add a bit to our rushing attack to complement our potent passing attack.

  6. …and make a hole in one. Hey, he golfs. It’s possible (hell, I’m a nobody Vikings fan and I’ve done it)

    …and drop kick a 45 yard field goal. Hey, he handles the ball on every play. I bet he practices the drop kick secretly.

    …and fly to the moon. Hey, he gets people double discounts on insurance.

    Of course a Packers site will say stuff like that!! Vikings sites say great things about a crappy team and build up mediocre players. Rogers is the best at his position, literally on earth.

  7. Unless the Detroit Defense improves quickly (and running game) I’d take Stafford first….GB doesn’t “need” to throw it as much and why risk your franchise over something so silly.

  8. 6000 Yards isn’t too far away if Goodell and the “competition committee” have anything to say about it. My sources say that they’re removing tackling in 2013.All tackling will be met with a 15 yard/auto first down penalty along with $25k fine for a first offense and an automatic TD awarded to the opponent and ejection from the game for a second offense with further suspensions to be reviewed by the league on a case-by-case basis,all for the safety of the players and integrity of the game,of course. Gotta give the “fans” what they want,right? Right?

  9. Stafford, if anyone, has a better chance than Rodgers. His attempts are much higher – he led the league last year with 660+ – due to the lack of running game. And even when Detroit’s running backs are healthy, LeShoure and Best are very good receiving backs.

    If you increase is average per attempt by a yard and a half, he exceeds 6K yards. That is pretty substantial.

    Plus, he has Megatron. Come on now.

  10. 6000 passing yards will only be accomplished by a team with no running game whatsoever, and then the opponent will have something to say about it. That’s 375 passing yards per game for 16 games – there’s no way a team will play against lousy pass defenses every week, and a team that just chucks the ball that often will start facing defenses with 7 men in coverage that dare them to run.

  11. So Vic is counting on GB facing secondaries that are playing with 1 starter including a wide receiver at corner.

    Good luck cracking 6,000 yards, Mr. Rodgers…

  12. All Pack websites overhype, this is no secret to any one of their rivals’ fans, and it looks like the main site is catching that same fever. They are crowned paper champions every preseason by these same homers, without fail.

  13. I think Brees is more likely to get there than Rodgers. He was pretty close to that 375 average for the last 8-9 games.

  14. Given the NFL’s rule changes over the last 10 years I think 6000 yards is closer than you think. Marino would have passed for 6000 yards under this rule structure at least once in his career.

  15. If Josh Sitton and Dietrich-Smith finally start getting called for HOLDING, teams will get a pass rush on Rodgers and no way he gets 6000k. I like Rodgers, but still. If the refs keep favoring them, its a possibility.

  16. To be fair to Vic, he was mostly talking about his expectation that the passing game in general is going to keep moving up, not that Aaron Rogers was going to throw a thousand more yards than anyone else.

    Whether defense reasserts itself in the coming years, or whether the passing attack is still warming up will probably determine whether it’s true or not, but you have to admit that if QBs start seeing 5500+ yard seasons, the idea of Rogers or Brees hitting 6,000 won’t seem too outrageous anymore.

  17. Drew threw for 5476 on 657 attempts. Dan threw for 5084 on 564 attempts. Going by those numbers, if Dan would have had 657 attempts, he would have had 5922 yards. Just sayin’

  18. Wisconsin77 says:Jul 20, 2012 1:16 PM

    Even though the Packers have become a pass first, run is an afterthought, type of offense, the weather will prevent a Packer QB from ever reaching that goal. Packer QBs don’t have the luxury of playing in climate controlled conditions for most of the season like the Mannings and the Breeses.
    _________

    Eli plays outdoors in New Jersey and Peyton plays outdoors in Denver. That isn’t what I consider climate controlled conditions.

    And who is the other Brees?

  19. Oh god I hope not. That means all the defensive drafting did not pay off. In what kind of games would that even be necessary?

  20. I wonder how long it will be before NFL teams start viewing their quarterbacks like baseball teams view their pitchers with 100+ pitches.

    You would think that the way the NFL is trending, average quarterback careers would be shortened by at least a few years.

  21. Haters gonna hate. I’d rather we were talking about this rather than whether or not our star Defensive End was going to beat up our rookie left tackle!

  22. first you gotta hit 5k before 6k.. second…

    even aaron rodgers wont avg 375 yards a gm… thats what u need not to mention play every gm ..

    if u can avg 375 and u still need your qb in week 16 or 17 .. your defense is shot

  23. If Rodgers had the same Yards per attempt average as he did last year to go along with the number of attempts Drew Brees had last year, that would have given him 6044 yards this past season. It sounds crazy, but it isn’t impossible.

  24. HA! HA! Hahahahabahbahabahabah!! Packer fans are ridiculously unrealistic! hahahaha!

  25. How about some stats?

    Brees attempted 657 passes last year for 5,476 yards. That is 8.3 yards per attempt.

    Rodgers attempted 502 passes for 4,643 yards. That is 9.2 yards per attempt.

    If you apply Rodgers’ 9.2 yards per attempt to Brees’ 657 attempts that equals 6,044 yards.

    So is it possible? Sure. Is it likely? No.

    And just for fun, Rodgers averaged a TD pass every 11.2 attempts (45 TDs last year). Apply that to 657 attempts and you get 59 Tds.

  26. Well, if he passes for over 6,000 yards that means the defense is giving up an alarming amount of points as well. Hopefully for Packer fans their defense improves otherwise there’s going to be lots of teams that learned something that the Giants exposed.

  27. He will be lucky to survive 4 quarters of football in week one. Forget 6000 years may not make it to week 2.

    Bears and lions fans our gift to you (you will get a taste too dont worry)…………The Niners D.

  28. Carl Gerbschmidt says:Jul 20, 2012 3:20 PM

    Haters gonna hate. I’d rather we were talking about this rather than whether or not our star Defensive End was going to beat up our rookie left tackle!
    ——
    Oh I see, of all the fanbases you made a reference to the Vikings. Typical little man syndrome. Talk about haters gonna hate.

  29. Vic likes old school football, reported with the Chuck Noll Steelers/Couglin Jaguars and what not.

    Dude was probably just annoyed or whatever after last year’s lack of defense around the league and he probably figured it wouldn’t be that long til a QB hits the 6000 yard mark…

  30. 6,000 yards is completely unrealistic, especially when he’ll probably sit out the last 1-2 weeks with home field wrapped up.

  31. If Graham Harrell gets decent enough to play, (or if we have another decent backup) Mike will have Aaron sit out games that we’re ahead by, so I doubt this will happen.

  32. As a Packer fan, I am a little mortified. This prediction sounds like something Chris Farley would have said on the SNL Superfans skits.

  33. i dont think aaron rodgers even thinks he could pass for 6000 yds. he just recently said that he’d like to see a bit more of the run game to balance the offense out a bit.

  34. It may not happen as Rodgers low numbers last season indicated. The Packers do not run up the score on other teams and Rodgers was pulled early in several games.

    If Rodgers played until the final gun of every game and possibly with an overtime or 2 he could easily break 6000 yards.

    But the Green Bay Packers have too much class to let it happen.

  35. Rodgers hits 6,000 yards before the Packers win another SB, as evidenced by their priorities and failure to acknowledge what needs to be addressed with their team.

  36. by1619 said, “As a Packer fan, I am a little mortified. This prediction sounds like something Chris Farley would have said on the SNL Superfans skits.”

    I was getting ready to say that Da Superfans predict Jay Cutler will pass for 6,000 yards in one game.

    On a more serious note, predictions like these make me want to become a member of the “Competition” Committee so I can propose a rule that all pass plays must involve dropbacks of at least five steps by the QB. It’d be one of those rare new rules that benefits the defense.

    On the other hand, give it another year or two and an up-and-coming defensive coordinator might find a way to neutralize these high-profile passing attacks. Then the defenses will rule for a few years until an offensive coordinator rediscovers the power running game.

  37. “Rogers will throw for 6000 yards”

    – Green Bay Packers

    ” I’m gonna run for 2500 yards”

    – Chris Johnson

    All these predictions by players and sites are just plain dumb. How bout we play the game and enjoy it when the unimaginable happens instead of constantly boasting on oneself.

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