PFT’s Week Four picks

Getty Images

In hindsight, I shouldn’t have complained about the Monday night debacle.

After all, I picked the Seahawks to win by a point and, thanks to the replacement officials, Seattle won by two.  Since MDS picked the Pack, it allowed me to win the weekly contest with MDS by two, 9-7 versus 7-9.

Given the crazy, upside-down games from Week Three, I’ll take a winning record and run with it — as quickly as the Seahawks ran with their unwarranted win.

For the season, I’m now 27-21, and MDS is 26-22.

This week, we disagree on three games.  All 15 of our picks appear below.

Browns at Ravens

MDS’s take: Browns rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden has actually looked decent the last two weeks, after a disastrous Week One. But the Ravens’ defense will bring far too much heat for Weeden to handle. I look for Haloti Ngata to pound Weeden into the turf a few times on Thursday night.

MDS’s pick: Ravens 27, Browns 6.

Florio’s take:  The Browns are another close loss or two away from imploding completely.  They won’t have to worry about another close loss on Thursday night.

Florio’s pick:  Ravens 31, Browns 13.

Panthers at Falcons

MDS’s take: I still don’t believe the Panthers are as bad as they’ve looked this season, and that by the end of the year they could be fighting for a playoff spot. But Atlanta is the wrong place for the Panthers to try to get back on track.

MDS’s pick: Falcons 23, Panthers 17.

Florio’s take:  The Falcons have beaten the Panthers four straight times, scoring 31 points exactly in each game.  Atlanta could be on track to clinching the division by Thanksgiving.

Florio’s pick:  Falcons 31, Panthers 14.

Patriots at Bills

MDS’s take: This is a fascinating game in the AFC East race, one that could establish the Bills as the favorites to win the division. I’ve been saying all year that the Bills have made the right moves to become playoff contenders this season, but I just think the Patriots, with their backs against the wall, are going to come out focused and ready to play their best game of the season.

MDS’s pick: Patriots 24, Bills 14.

Florio’s take:  The Bills have beaten the Pats only once since the last time the Pats had a losing record.  Buffalo is moving in the right direction, but New England needs this one badly.

Florio’s pick:  Patriots 30, Bills 23.

Vikings at Lions

MDS’s take: Another fascinating divisional game, as the Vikings have a real opportunity here to establish themselves as surprising contenders in the NFC North. However, I see far too many matchup advantages for the Lions’ receivers against the Vikings’ secondary.  Not just Calvin Johnson (who has a matchup advantage over every defensive back in the league) but also receivers Nate Burleson and Titus Young and tight end Brandon Pettigrew should be able to get open and get points on the board in Detroit.

MDS’s pick: Lions 28, Vikings 24.

Florio’s take:  The Lions have won three straight in the series, but the Vikings are gaining confidence,  The Lions continue to be more flawed than anyone realized.  Receiver Jerome Simpson returns from suspension in time to help the Vikings take advantage of Detroit’s biggest weakness.

Florio’s pick:  Vikings 24, Lions 16.

Titans at Texans

MDS’s take: The Texans are the best team in the AFC South by such a large margin that the question for me isn’t whether they’ll win the division but how quickly they’ll clinch. My guess is some time around Week 11. This win will be another step toward that.

MDS’s pick: Texans 34, Titans 10.

Florio’s take:  Yeah, I picked the Titans to win the division.  And if they upset the Texans on Sunday, the Titans will thrust themselves into the conversation.  And if they upset the Texans, it will mean that I picked this specific game incorrectly.  Despite last weekend’s epic in Nashville, the Titans aren’t nearly as good as I thought they’d be.  The Texans are much better than I thought they’d be.

Florio’s pick:  Texans 24, Titans 13.

Chargers at Chiefs

MDS’s take: The Chiefs looked pretty good against the Saints on Sunday, and the Chargers looked pretty bad against the Falcons on Sunday. But I’m expecting the Chargers to win, in a game that I have a hunch will come down to special teams, where the Chargers will make plays and the Chiefs will make mistakes.

MDS’s pick: Chargers 28, Chiefs 21.

Florio’s take:  One week often changes everything.  Last Sunday, the Chargers went from elite to “meh” status, and the Chiefs showed they’ve got some fight.  Home team gets the edge in this one, especially if Jamaal Charles saved some yards for Sunday.

Florio’s pick:  Chiefs 24, Chargers 22.

49ers at Jets

MDS’s take: If not for the injury to Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis, I’d be very tempted to pick the 49ers to lose their second straight road game. But that Revis injury is devastating to the Jets not only because it radically changes what they can do on defense, but also because while seeing players and coaches on the Jets talking this week, you could practically feel the entire locker room deflating at the loss of their best player. I think the Jets are going to come out looking very bad on Sunday.

MDS’s pick: 49ers 27, Jets 14.

Florio’s take:  The difference between the 49ers defense and the Jets defense is that the 49ers didn’t put all their eggs in one island.

Florio’s pick:  49ers 20, Jets 13.

Seahawks at Rams

MDS’s take: The Seahawks don’t have any time to send thank-you notes to the league office for their gift on Monday night, because they’ve got a road trip to St. Louis on a short work week. I like the way Jeff Fisher’s defense is playing, and I think Russell Wilson will feel a lot of pressure, but Seattle’s defensive line will have Sam Bradford under pressure, and the Seahawks will win a low-scoring game.

MDS’s pick: Seahawks 10, Rams 9.

Florio’s take:  Short week, significant travel, improving opponent, and guilty conscience add up to trouble for the Seahawks in St. Louis.

Florio’s pick:  Rams 14, Seahawks 12.

Dolphins at Cardinals

MDS’s take: It’s taken me a while to learn to believe in the Cardinals, but I’m there now. Which probably means they’re going to lose. But I’m picking them anyway.

MDS’s pick: Cardinals 24, Dolphins 7.

Florio’s take:  This has the potential to be one of those early-season “correction” games.  But how can the Dolphins win if they can’t score any offensive touchdowns against once of the best defenses in the league?

Florio’s pick:  Cardinals 17, Dolphins 6.

Bengals at Jaguars

MDS’s take: I loved the game Bengals offensive coordinator Jay Gruden called on Sunday against the Redskins. Look for Bengals receiver A.J. Green to have another big day against the Jaguars.

MDS’s pick: Bengals 28, Jaguars 24.

Florio’s take:  It would be fitting for the Bengals, a week after finally winning a game they were supposed to lose, to lose a game they’re supposed to win.  But the Bengals are better than the Jaguars on both sides of the ball — and the Jaguars will have a hard time keeping up with a suddenly dynamic and diverse offense.

Florio’s pick:  Bengals 24, Jaguars 14.

Raiders at Broncos

MDS’s take: It says something about what we’ve come to expect from Peyton Manning that he had 330 yards, two touchdowns and no turnovers on Sunday against a very good Texans defense, and yet everyone is talking about how he’s just not the same. Playing a weak Raiders defense will result in Manning looking a lot better, and the Broncos improving to 2-2.

MDS’s pick: Broncos 35, Raiders 14.

Florio’s take:  Peyton Manning won’t need much arm strength to move the ball against a defense that can’t do much to stop him.  Or anyone.

Florio’s pick:  Broncos 27, Raiders 17.

Saints at Packers

MDS’s take: Raise your hand if you predicted these two teams would be a combined 1-5 heading into this game. I see the Packers’ problems as much more correctable than the Saints’ problems, and I see Aaron Rodgers having a big day against a shaky Saints defense.

MDS’s pick: Packers 27, Saints 17.

Florio’s take:  The Saints can thank the Seahawks and the replacement officials for what they’re about to endure.

Florio’s pick:  Packers 45, Saints 17.

Redskins at Buccaneers

MDS’s take: The Bucs have a bad offense and a good defense; the Redskins have a good offense and a bad defense. I like Tampa Bay’s defense to keep it close and the Redskins’ defense to give up a big play at the wrong time.

MDS’s pick: Buccaneers 14, Redskins 10.

Florio’s take:  That win over the Saints in New Orleans is looking less impressive by the week.  And the Bucs are better than their record would suggest.

Florio’s pick:  Buccaneers 20, Redskins 16.

Giants at Eagles

MDS’s take: The Eagles need to bounce back in a big way after laying an egg against the Cardinals. I think they’re going to, with Michael Vick finally making it through a game without a turnover.

MDS’s pick: Eagles 24, Giants 21.

Florio’s take:  Eagles coach Andy Reid does his best work when his back is against the wall.  And his back is already against the wall.  And he said just enough this week to put his quarterback’s back against the wall, too.

Florio’s pick:  Eagles 27, Giants 24.

Bears at Cowboys

MDS’s take: As impressive as the Bears’ defense has been, I think they’ll struggle with the explosiveness of Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray, who should have a huge game in a Dallas win.

MDS’s pick: Cowboys 34, Bears 20.

Florio’s take:  If the Cowboys can keep Tony Romo in two or fewer pieces (factoring in the possibility of the partial loss of an ear), the Cowboys should win this one.

Florio’s pick:  Cowboys 26, Bears 17.

AP

With last year’s leading receiver, Michael Crabtree, out an estimated six months with a torn Achilles tendon, 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh says he’s confident someone will step up to fill the void.

Harbaugh isn’t totally sure who that “someone” will be, though.

Harbaugh said on 95.7 The Game that he believes the most likely candidates to take Crabtree’s place in the offense are last year’s first-round pick A.J. Jenkins and this year’s fourth-round pick Quinton Patton as well as Ricardo Lockette, who has never played in a game for the 49ers but spent most of last year on the roster and has reportedly looked good in practices.

“We’ll put Jenkins, Patton, Ricardo Lockette at the same position and let them compete and emerge,” Harbaugh said. “The good news is that somebody will emerge because they have to.”

Harbaugh also said he believes the 49ers have a lot of depth at the receiver position.

“Then on the other side, Anquan Boldin, Chad Hall, Marlon Moore has been doing some really nice things in the offseason,” Harbaugh said. “Joe Hastings will compete on the other side. Kyle Williams eventually will come back from his injury. He’s doing real well, coming along very nicely. And Mario Manningham — probably a little bit later than Kyle, but he’s on track to be healed up and ready to go, as well. A real good chance for some young guys to emerge, get some reps and contribute. I very much anticipate that will happen.”

For the 49ers, it needs to happen. Crabtree was the 49ers’ best wide receiver and a big reason that Colin Kaepernick settled into the starting quarterback job so smoothly last year. He won’t be easy to replace, but the 49ers have no choice but to find someone who can do it.

Getty Images

Former Bears, Lions and Rams defensive tackle Dick Evey passed away Thursday at age 72 in Knoxville, Tennessee, multiple media outlets reported.

A three-time letter winner at Tennessee, Evey was the Bears’ first-round pick in 1964 (No. 14 overall). He played six seasons for Chicago before moving on to Detroit (1970) and Los Angeles (1971) to finish out his career.

At the time, Evey was Tennessee’s fourth-ever first-round pick and its first since 1953, when the Browns took future Hall of Famer Doug Atkins. Evey and Atkins were teammates for Evey’s first three seasons in Chicago.

Evey’s daughter told the Knoxville News Sentinel that her father, who suffered from an illness, was a member of the 88 Plan, a program designed to help retired NFL players pay for the treatment of medical conditions such as dementia and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

Dave Costa a four-time AFL All-Star in the 1960s, has died at the age of 71, according to the Broncos’ website.

A defensive tackle from Utah, Costa was selected by the Rams in the 1963 NFL draft and by the Raiders in the 1963 AFL draft. Costa ultimately decided to go with the Raiders, where he came in second place in AFL Rookie of the Year voting.

Costa had his most successful seasons in Denver, where he played from 1967 to 1971 and was chosen to the AFL All-Star team in each of his first three seasons. Costa played for the Chargers in 1972 and 1973 and finished his career with the Bills in 1974.

In all five of his seasons with the Broncos, Costa was chosen as the team’s defensive captain.

Getty Images

A settlement has been reached in the lawsuit filed by two massage therapists against Brett Favre, the Associated Press reported Friday.

The lawsuit stemmed from allegations that Favre, who played for the Jets in 2008, sent suggestive text messages sent to one of the masseuses. The Jets and another club employee were also named in the suit.

Terms of the settlement were not disclosed by the therapists’ attorney, according to the AP.

The Jets released Favre, who indicated he was retiring, after the 2008 season. However, the quarterback came out of retirement to play for the Vikings in 2009 and 2010.

AP

Washington coach Mike Shanahan says quarterback Robert Griffin III isn’t just a good young quarterback. Griffin is, according to Shanahan, a unique talent who has the potential to be the best ever to play the game.

Shanahan told Albert Breer of NFL Network that players like Griffin come along so rarely that a blockbuster trade like the one Washington pulled off to draft Griffin is a bargain.

“That’s why you give up two 1s and a No. 2 for him. You give those things up because you see something very, very special,” he said. “You see what type of athlete he is and what type of ability he has. He can make every throw on the field, he’s extremely bright, he’s got great work ethic, and he’s got passion for the game. Those are the things you look for. Now, the rest is taking it to the field.”

Most quarterbacks improve significantly in their ability to read NFL defenses and run NFL offenses after their rookie seasons, but Shanahan said that even if Griffin doesn’t get any better, he’ll be one of the all-time greats simply by playing the way he played last season.

“If Robert plays like he did [in 2012] the rest of his career,” Shanahan said, “he’ll go down as one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game.”

That’s high praise, but it’s not unreasonable to think that Griffin can be a truly great player. Which is why Shanahan’s No. 1 priority has to be making sure Griffin gets healthy and stays healthy.

Getty Images

While it’s probably too soon to claim progress, considering the two sides haven’t agreed on much to date, there is at least some movement between the NFL and the NFLPA on HGH testing.

According to Albert Breer of the NFL Network, the league submitted a new proposal in April which will keep alive the hope for player testing in 2013.

The proposal reportedly did not include game-day testing, which was part of previous NFL suggestions.

Union officials relayed the news to player representatives this week on a conference call, and they’re working on a counter-proposal which could be in the league’s hands in the next week.

Considering the contentious nature of previous talks, it’s probably wise to take this one with a grain of salt.

Getty Images

Everyone’s looking ahead to the Memorial Day weekend, but there’s still some business to do before everyone heads out to enjoy the next few days.

One of those things still on the to-do list is the Friday edition of Pro Football Talk on NBCSN. Ravens defensive tackle Chris Canty will join Erik Kuselias for a conversation about his adjustment to Baltimore after playing for the Giants the last few years. We’ll find out how Canty thinks the defense is coming together after losing several key contributors from last year’s team and whether his experience with the Giants last season gives him any insight into the best ways to defend a Super Bowl title.

With Mike Florio off in Cleveland waiting for his close-up, Pete Najarian will join Kuselias to round up all the biggest news from around the league this week.

It all gets started at 5 p.m ET on NBCSN.

AP

The news of Rams guard Rokevious Watkins‘ one-game suspension for violating the NFL’s substance-abuse policy seemed to come at the worst possible time for the second-year guard.

After showing up to camp overweight last year, Watkins was able to win the starting left guard job but an ankle injury in the first week wound up wiping out the rest of his season. The suspension this year is just for one game, but it’s hardly a pattern of reliability for a player the Rams were looking to as a starter on the offensive line this year.

It doesn’t sound like the team’s lost their faith in him, however. Coach Jeff Fisher wouldn’t offer any details about why Watkins was suspended, but he did say that he thinks the league erred in suspending his player.

“I’ll say this, we’ve been aware of it for quite some time,” Fisher said, via Joe Lyons of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “I’m not going to go into specifics of the suspension. We respect the league’s decision, but personally and respectfully, I disagree with the suspension and the circumstances regarding the suspension. That’s my opinion, but we’ll honor the league’s decision.”

Players in the substance-abuse program who test positive are usually suspended for four games, which suggests Watkins violated the policy in another way. That could mean an arrest or other run-in with the authorities, although those details mean less going forward for the Rams than Fisher’s willingness to go on the record in support of his guard.

AP

Titus Young, the troubled former Lions receiver who has been arrested three times this month and has been in jail since May 11, appeared in court today but refused to address the judge.

According to USA Today, the interaction between Young and Judge Andre Manssourian went like this:

Judge: “Good morning, sir.”

Young: No reply.

Judge: “Can you hear me?”

Young: No reply.

Judge: “Are you Titus Demetrius Young?”

Young: No reply.

When Young refused to even confirm his name, the judge called the attorneys over and had a sidebar discussion with them, during which time Young continued to stand silently. At one point Young’s father, who was in the courtroom, called out to him, but Young still did not respond. Young’s attorney later said that Young was exercising his right to remain silent.

Friends and family members have said they’re concerned about the mental state of Young, who is facing a slew of charges including burglary, battery on a police officer and drunk driving. The judge said Young “poses a danger to the community” and increased his bail from $25,000 to $50,000. Young’s family has apparently decided not to post bail, thinking he is better off remaining in jail until he receives the mental health treatment he needs.

Getty Images

Maybe Argonaut is Canadian for Millen.

The CFL’s Toronto Argonauts announced they had signed former Lions draft bust Mike Williams.

The 10th overall pick in 2005, Williams never lived up to his college hype, catching 127 passes in five seasons with the Lions, Raiders and Seahawks.

That’s fewer than he caught in two years at Southern Cal, when he looked like the kind of player that was going to make a genius out of former Detroit General Manager Matt Millen.

It looked like Williams was going to resurrect his career after a 65-catch season with the Seahawks in 2010, but now he’s going north of the border to try to reclaim that magic.

AP

The Colts drafted Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen in 2012, a pair of players they likely expect to occupy the tight end position for at least the next few years.

You never know when injury might strike, however, and the team checked out a few players who could serve as insurance policies this week. Aaron Wilson of the Baltimore Sun reports that the Colts worked out Dante Rosario while Albert Breer of the NFL Network adds that they also worked out Randy McMichael and Cornelius Ingram.

Rosario had one big game for the Chargers in 2012 when he caught four passes for 48 yards and three touchdowns against the Titans in Week Two. He had just six catches and 47 yards the rest of the year, however, and pretty well fits the journeyman label after playing for four different teams in the last three years.

McMichael also played in San Diego last season, finishing with nine catches in 16 games as a complement to Rosario and Antonio Gates. McMichael, who has also played for the Dolphins and Rams, turns 34 in June. Ingram was a fifth-round pick of the Eagles in 2009, but tore his ACL in training camp. That made two straight ACL tears for Ingram, who has spent time on practice squads with the Lions and Broncos without playing in any regular season games.

Getty Images

With wide receiver Michael Crabtree out for at least the next six months after tearing his Achilles, the 49ers are going to need the rest of their receiving corps to step up to cover for his absence.

One of the guys they’ll be looking to is Mario Manningham, who is set to start his second season with the team after signing as a free agent in 2012. Manningham’s first year with the Niners ended in December when he tore his ACL and PCL, an injury that coach Jim Harbaugh expectes to keep Manningham from starting training camp on the field with the rest of his teammates.

Manningham is making progress, though, and has started ramping up his physical activity during rehab.

“I have started running and cutting and doing little things,” Manningham said on Sirius XM NFL Radio, via the 49ers’ website. “When you have knee injuries, you can’t really take any time off. Every time I think about it, I’m trying to do something with my knee. I’m not rushing it but I am going hard on my knee.”

Manningham is one of several 49ers receivers whose question marks loom all the larger thanks to Crabtree’s injury. Kyle Williams is also recovering from a serious knee injury and A.J. Jenkins has to show he’s capable of producing in an NFL offense after spending almost all of his rookie season on the inactive list.

AP

We’ve heard plenty of praise for Brian Urlacher since the linebacker announced his retirement earlier this week.

That praise has come from friend and foe alike, including a quarterback who has seen a lot of Urlacher since taking over as the starter in Green Bay. During an appearance on Jim Rome’s radio show, Aaron Rodgers called Urlacher his “favorite player to play against” and said that he’ll miss verbally jousting with Urlacher the next time that the Packers and Bears square off.

“From schematic stuff to silly plays that might have been called. We had a back-and-forth one time where I’m making a check, he’s making a check, his voice cracks, so laughing about that a few plays later during a TV timeout,” Rodgers said, via ESPNChicago.com. “Some of the checks he would do were often very colorful. If he had been miked up at those times there would have been some good, unedited NFL Films stuff, but I just always appreciated the way he played the game, his approach, his professionalism, and competing against him was a great honor.”

We don’t doubt that Rodgers enjoyed squaring off with one of the best middle linebackers of the recent past, but he might have also enjoyed playing against Urlacher because matchups with Chicago have gone well for the Packers since Rodgers took over. The Packers are 9-2 in those games, including a win in the NFC Championship Game following the 2010 season, although Urlacher was only active in nine of those games.

AP

He might not be practicing yet, but Patriots wide receiver Josh Boyce now has a contract.

According to Jeff Howe of the Boston Herald, the Patriots signed the fourth-rounder to a four-year deal.

He’s the fifth of the Patriots’ seven picks to sign, leaving just fellow wideout Aaron Dobson (second round) and defensive end Michael Buchanan (seventh).

Boyce is still on the sidelines with a broken toe, but when he returns, he has a good chance of playing a significant role early on.

The Patriots have remade their receiving corps this offseason, and there’s a real possibility Dobson or Boyce could end up starting opposite Danny Amendola.

Getty Images

The Browns announced the signing of rookie offensive lineman Garrett Gilkey on Friday.

A seventh-round pick from Chadron (Neb.) State, Gilkey has reportedly played guard during the Browns’ offseason workouts. He was a left tackle in college.

After the selection of Gilkey, Browns head coach Rob Chudzinski said the lineman’s play at the Senior Bowl caught his eye.

“He went into the Senior Bowl and played very well against those guys and competed,” Chudzinski said, according to the Browns. “. . . He has lined up against guys from Florida State, North Carolina and everywhere else and looked like he fit right in. It didn’t faze him one bit. He’s a tough guy and has the kind of attitude that we want.”

Chudzinski also noted that Gilkey “has really good feet for a big man and can bend very well.”

Off the field, Gilkey is notable for his public stance against bullying, something he has said he encountered in high school.