Skip to content

PFT’s Week Ten picks

Minnesota Vikings v Detroit Lions Getty Images

The lead is back to five.

Last week, we disagreed on one game:  Eagles at Saints.  I took the home team, MDS took the road team.  And I ended up 10-4 for the week to MDS’s 9-5.

This week, we disagree on twice as many games as last week.  Which sounds better than two.

For the year, I’m 83-49, and MDS is 78-54.  Yep, that’s a five-game lead.  Which definitely sounds better than two.

Colts at Jaguars

MDS’s take: The 5-3 Colts have an easy enough schedule the rest of the way that if they just win the games they should win, they’ll finish the season with a winning record. One of the games they should win is this one, and I think they will.

MDS’s pick: Colts 20, Jaguars 17.

Florio’s take:  The last time the Colts visited Jacksonville, a win by the home team ensured that Andrew Luck would head to Indy.  The Colts return as a playoff contender, intent on avenging a September home loss to the Jaguars.

Florio’s pick:  Colts 27, Jaguar 20.

Raiders at Ravens

MDS’s take: For a 6-2 team, the Ravens have a lot of question marks, especially on their aged and injured defense. But the Raiders have even more problems on defense, and I like Baltimore to win a high-scoring game.

MDS’s pick: Ravens 35, Raiders 31.

Florio’s take:  The Raiders aren’t as bad as you’d think, and the Ravens aren’t as good.  Look for Baltimore’s decimated run defense to thrive against Oakland’s decimated running game, and for the Ravens to do enough to fend off the Steelers as a pair of games against Pittsburgh loom on the schedule.

Florio’s pick:  Ravens 31, Raiders 14.

Broncos at Panthers

MDS’s take: Broncos coach John Fox will win back at his old stomping grounds in Carolina, where Peyton Manning will pick apart the Panthers’ defense while Von Miller will make Cam Newton’s life miserable.

MDS’s pick: Broncos 28, Panthers 14.

Florio’s take:  John Fox returns to Charlotte with a quarterback far better than any he ever had when he coached the Panthers.  Against a team with plenty of guys Fox knows very well.  The Carolina winning streak ends at one.

Florio’s pick:  Broncos 30, Panthers 20.

Giants at Bengals

MDS’s take: I could pick this game with confidence if I knew which Giants team was going to show up. Will it be the team that showed up for 60 minutes and pounded the 49ers, or the team that sleepwalked through long stretches of close wins against the Redskins and Cowboys, and a close loss to the Steelers? Given the way the Giants have played the last three weeks I’m tempted to go with the upset, but the Bengals’ defense has been so bad this season that Eli Manning simply has to have a good game.

MDS’s pick: Giants 29, Bengals 25.

Florio’s take:  The Bengals are in a free fall, and the Giants are caught in the early stages of their annual midseason swoon.  I’ve got more faith in the Giants getting it done, especially since Eli Manning will surely have the benefit of some insights from his big brother, who won four days ago in Cincinnati.

Florio’s pick:  Giants 31, Bengals 20.

Titans at Dolphins

MDS’s take: The Dolphins missed a golden opportunity to establish themselves as the AFC wild-card frontrunners on Sunday against the Colts, but I still like the way this team is playing, especially on defense. The Titans got a tongue-lashing from their owner after another bad loss on Sunday against the Bears, but that won’t be enough to shake them out of their doldrums.

MDS’s pick: Dolphins 35, Titans 17.

Florio’s takeJake Locker returns, his left shoulder coincidentally healing at the time Matt Hasselbeck lost his hot hand.  Locker will learn what everyone else has learned this year.  The Miami defense is pretty good.

Florio’s pick:  Dolphins 17, Titans 13.

Lions at Vikings

MDS’s take: When these teams met in Week Four in Detroit, the Vikings were bolstered by two kick return touchdowns and won 20-13. But the Lions have shored up their special teams problems, Vikings kickoff returner Percy Harvin is hurt, and the Lions should earn their first NFC North victory of the season in the rematch in Minnesota.

MDS’s pick: Lions 23, Vikings 10.

Florio’s take:  With a brutal post-bye schedule, this game could determine whether the Vikings will finish 6-10 or 5-11.  I’ll pick the Vikings now, primarily because it’s the last time I’ll pick them all season.

Florio’s pick:  Vikings 23, Lions 20.

Bills at Patriots

MDS’s take: In another rematch of a Week Four meeting, the Bills’ defense is in big trouble.  It probably won’t get quite as ugly for Buffalo as it did in the Patriots’ 52-28 win in September, but the Patriots will put plenty of points on the board.

MDS’s pick: Patriots 38, Bills 20.

Florio’s take:  The Pats scored 45 points against the Rams in 60 minutes, and 45 against the Bills in 25.  New England needs to keep its foot on the gas in order to get ready for some tough challenges that are waiting in the postseason.

Florio’s pick:  Patriots 38, Bills 21.

Falcons at Saints

MDS’s take: The Saints have won three out of four, and a win here would signal that New Orleans really has turned its season around. Unfortunately, there are just too many holes on the Saints’ defense for New Orleans to stop a Falcons team that can attack with Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones, Tony Gonzalez, Michael Turner and Jacquizz Rodgers. This Falcons team just has too many weapons.

MDS’s pick: Falcons 27, Saints 21.

Florio’s take:  Halfway to an unblemished regular season, the Falcons simply don’t have the feel of a 16-0 team.  With four games against the Saints and Bucs over the balance of the year, the Falcons most likely won’t be.  It starts now, with the Saints staking their claim for a wild-card berth by hanging loss No. 1 on Atlanta.

Florio’s pick:  Saints 28, Falcons 27.

Chargers at Buccaneers

MDS’s take: With running back Doug Martin and a solid front seven on defense, the Bucs are becoming exactly the kind of team Greg Schiano wanted to build: A team that wins by running and stopping the run. Tampa Bay will do it again against a Chargers team that has yet to beat a good opponent all season.

MDS’s pick: Buccaneers 16, Chargers 14.

Florio’s take:  By playing last Thursday, the Chargers had some extra time to figure out how to stop the Muscle Hamster.  It won’t be enough.

Florio’s pick:  Buccaneers 27, Chargers 21.

Jets at Seahawks

MDS’s take: Seattle is a tough team to play for anyone, but I see Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez and his receiving corps having a particularly tough game against a good Seahawks secondary. Rex Ryan will have a good game plan to contain Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson, but the Seahawks’ defense will lead the way to a low-scoring win.

MDS’s pick: Seahawks 12, Jets 7.

Florio’s take:  The Pete Carroll-Mark Sanchez reunion provides a great story line.  But the bottom line is that it’s foolish to pick against the Seahawks at home.

Florio’s pick:  Seahawks 21, Jets 13.

Cowboys at Eagles

MDS’s take: Until Monday night, I was still a believer in the Eagles’ ability to turn their season around. But Philly’s offensive line looked terrible, the defense looked like it has taken a step backward with the departure of coordinator Juan Castillo, and the Eagles look like they’re ready to pack it in for the season. The Cowboys may still make a run at the playoffs, but the Eagles are done.

MDS’s pick: Cowboys 24, Eagles 14.

Florio’s take:  It’s a early playoff game between two teams that are destined to miss the playoffs.  In the past two weeks, the Cowboys gave the Falcons a much better game in Atlanta than the Eagles gave the Falcons at home.

Florio’s pick:  Cowboys 24, Eagles 21.

Rams at 49ers

MDS’s take: The 49ers’ defense has had a few letdowns, but when they’re on their game it’s just about impossible to score on them. And they’ll be on their game against a mediocre Rams offense.

MDS’s pick: 49ers 20, Rams 3.

Florio’s take:  Lost in the success of the Falcons and the Bears, the resurgence of the Packers, and the collapse of the Eagles, the Niners are ready to remind everyone that they may be the best team in the conference.

Florio’s pick:  49ers 27, Rams 9.

Texans at Bears

MDS’s take: In the best game of the week, the Bears’ opportunistic defense will try to force turnovers against a Texans offense whose quarterback, Matt Schaub, has only four turnovers all season. I like the Bears to get the best of it.

MDS’s pick: Bears 17, Texans 10.

Florio’s take:  The Texans haven’t been stepping up in high-profile games, which doesn’t bode well for the playoffs.

Florio’s pick:  Bears 19, Texans 13.

Chiefs at Steelers

MDS’s take: The Steelers are on a three-game winning streak and the Chiefs are in a tailspin. The Monday night game will be over by halftime, and millions of Americans will go to bed early.

MDS’s pick: Steelers 34, Chiefs 9.

Florio’s take:  Todd Haley gets a crack at the Chiefs.  But the Chiefs also get a crack at Todd Haley.  If this one were being played in Kansas City, I’d take the upset.  But it’s hard to imagine a one-win team toppling the Steelers in their own building.

Florio’s pick:  Steelers 24, Chiefs 16.

Permalink 39 Comments Feed for comments Latest Stories in: Features, Rumor Mill, Top Stories
39 Responses to “PFT’s Week Ten picks”
  1. jbaxt says: Nov 8, 2012 10:13 AM

    The KC players liked Haley. The only one with a problem with Haley was Pioli. And that’s only because Haley was making Pioli’s QB decision in Cassel look like a horrible move, and thats still the case. I hope KC loses by 50. And I’m a 25 year KC fan.

  2. objectivenflfan says: Nov 8, 2012 10:20 AM

    Grew up in Missouri. It’s funny how KC fans, year after year, talk up their team and year after year, look what happens. Look no further than jbaxt. Plenty of KC fans have told me they want to lose every game from here on out. Just another year for a KC fan, I guess.

    Oh and by the way, every KC fan wanted Haley out of KC – everybody. How many pitchforks were raised after the first 3-4 games last year? When Haley’s KC Chiefs lost by 25 each game…

    At least you have good BBQ?

  3. Beezo-Doo-doo-Zippity-Bop-bop-bop says: Nov 8, 2012 10:20 AM

    I’m stunned. One of you took an upset.

  4. whitemike55 says: Nov 8, 2012 10:21 AM

    Texans 17
    Bear 13

    JJ Watt 2.0 Sacks, forced fumble.

  5. tucostacos says: Nov 8, 2012 10:21 AM

    Crap, now I’m worried, both picked the Bears, that cannot bode well for them.

  6. unclehilroy says: Nov 8, 2012 10:24 AM

    “and for the Ravens to do enough to fend off the Steelers as a pair of games against Pittsburgh loom on the schedule.”

    How many times are these teams going to play each other?

  7. rwpsych16 says: Nov 8, 2012 10:29 AM

    I’m in the middle on the KC-PIT game. I don’t think it will be a huge blow out, but I think the Steelers win comfortably. All the injuries on the Steelers side will keep it from getting ridiculous.

  8. garonm says: Nov 8, 2012 10:36 AM

    “The Steelers are on a three-game winning streak and the Chiefs are in a tailspin. The Monday night game will be over by halftime, and millions of Americans will go to bed early.”

    Or, I just change the channel.

  9. geniusfan says: Nov 8, 2012 10:38 AM

    “I’ve got more faith in the Giants getting it done, especially since Eli Manning will surely have the benefit of some insights from his big brother, who won four days ago in Cincinnati.”

    Yup. Peyton will let Eli know how to throw it to the other team twice just like last week. The only question is if the Giants will have a kick return for a touchdown to bail their Manning brother out.

  10. garonm says: Nov 8, 2012 10:39 AM

    “The 49ers’ defense has had a few letdowns, but when they’re on their game it’s just about impossible to score on them. And they’ll be on their game against a mediocre Rams offense.”

    A few letdowns on defense??? They’re 6-2. I would say two offensive let downs and the same defense unable to be on the field for the entire game and win it for the team again. Offense needs to stick with the power run. Both losses came when Gore had less than 15 carries. Keep it on the ground and keep the game in front of you behind the best offensive run line in the NFL period. Let them stack the box and then go to the air…

  11. packhawk04 says: Nov 8, 2012 10:40 AM

    If the packers can run the texans out of the state of texas on their home field like they did, the bears should have no problem beating them as well.

  12. lrt79 says: Nov 8, 2012 10:45 AM

    I’m not as optimistic of the Bears chances. The defense is bound to eventually have an off game, and I’d rather they get it out of their system now than in the playoffs.

    Plus I think JJ Watt is going to destroy our offensive line, which can’t even keep Cutler protected in max protect.

  13. theseantourage says: Nov 8, 2012 10:55 AM

    Texans havent been showing up in high-profile games? What the hell are you talking about?? I would put them at 2-1 in “high-profile” games with wins over Denver and Baltimore (blow out) and one loss against the Packers (where they just didnt show up, every team has this sort of game). Maybe do some research before you make idiotic statements, Florio.

  14. raleighdevil says: Nov 8, 2012 11:02 AM

    Using the lines in my ATS pool, you two agree on four games. You’re not being very helpful!

  15. yelix says: Nov 8, 2012 11:02 AM

    I’m a Chiefs fan, and I still think Haley needed to go. It became clear that the players didn’t like him anymore near the end of last season, and his offensive playcalling was awful. Still, Pioli is even worse for the franchise than Haley was, so Haley should go ahead and embarrass Pioli on national television.

  16. htown1035 says: Nov 8, 2012 11:14 AM

    At the time, there wasn’t a more high-profile game than Ravens vs. Texans, and they destroyed the Ravens by 30.

    People were calling the Broncos the best team in the AFC before last week. The Texans went to Denver and beat them.

    To say they don’t step up in high profile games is just a stupid thing to say.

  17. mydadyourmom says: Nov 8, 2012 11:29 AM

    Do you guys ever make any interesting picks? Not a single upset? Weak.

  18. ihaterogergoodell says: Nov 8, 2012 12:07 PM

    Bears fan here. I don’t see a single way the Bears can survive JJ Watt. Their protection has been the pits, and they have yet to beat any great team. For all the negative attention J’Marcus Webb has received, it’s actually Gabe Carimi who has been stinkin’ up the joint. Who is tasked with shutting down Watt? You guessed it!

    Then again, realistic expectations can often lead to pleasant surprises come Sunday!

  19. silvernblackpa says: Nov 8, 2012 12:34 PM

    If the game were in Oakland, I might be tempted to take the Raiders in a “circle the wagons and bounce back” upset.

    But since the Raiders generally tend to do a pretty effective imitation of the ’76 Bucs in the Eastern time zone (this year’s admirable effort against Atlanta notwithstanding) I think the Ravens cruise. Dammit.

    Baltimore 38 – Oakland 23

  20. billhicks666 says: Nov 8, 2012 1:07 PM

    packhawk04 says:

    “If the packers can run the texans out of the state of texas on their home field like they did, the bears should have no problem beating them as well.”

    Right, because Jay Cutler is just as good as Aaron Rodgers. Dolt.

  21. ravensallday2012 says: Nov 8, 2012 1:15 PM

    I get the ravens have not played good def. but I don’t get ppl calling them old. Outside of reed they r very young

  22. bdnnbd says: Nov 8, 2012 1:20 PM

    You would have picked the upset if the chiefs were at home? You’re off your meds.

  23. shiva1008 says: Nov 8, 2012 2:05 PM

    “With running back Doug Martin and a solid front seven on defense, the Bucs are becoming exactly the kind of team Greg Schiano wanted to build: A team that wins by running and stopping the run. ”

    Well if they won’t let other people run then why do they get to run? Seems kind of hypocritical….

  24. asublimeday says: Nov 8, 2012 2:14 PM

    Sweet merciful God, the Bears are getting respect!?

  25. asublimeday says: Nov 8, 2012 2:16 PM

    Nothing about the texans really scares me. They’ll keep a TE and a RB in on watts side on every pass play, and Marshall will have a field day.

  26. tharoostah says: Nov 8, 2012 2:51 PM

    If you simply pick the favorites straight up every game (no spread like you are doing here) your record would be 81-51.

  27. larryboodry says: Nov 8, 2012 3:17 PM

    Bears should win at home in a close, low-scoring game…With GB finally getting a bye, a Bears win extends their NFC North lead to two games, while a loss drops that lead to one…Makes the outcome of a non-conference game somewhat more meaningful.

  28. dtrb10 says: Nov 8, 2012 5:56 PM

    Frazier is a joke

  29. 2difshoe says: Nov 8, 2012 7:14 PM

    The Bears will win if:

    1. Cutler is sacked less than 3 times
    2. Forte runs for 100 yards
    3. Tice uses the tight end
    4. Bears take the ball away twice

    Bears 24
    Texans 17

  30. joeyd524 says: Nov 8, 2012 8:19 PM

    Been betting football longer than most of you been alive..I love dogs..

    K.c outright..

    I have no allegiance or hatred towards either team,just green…I have this one circled..

    Also
    Giants
    Jets
    Dallas

  31. bathroomben7 says: Nov 8, 2012 11:13 PM

    Correction: The Texans haven’t stepped up in a high-profile game EVER

  32. ihaterogergoodell says: Nov 9, 2012 8:42 AM

    billhicks666 says: Nov 8, 2012 1:07 PM

    Right, because Jay Cutler is just as good as Aaron Rodgers. Dolt.

    ———————————–

    Right. Because games are solely won by a quarterback. Nobody is arguing that, but the Bears have something the Packers really don’t have… a top tier defense. A type of D the Texans haven’t exactly faced yet.

    Don’t get me wrong, as a fan this game scares me, but that doesn’t mean a loss is a foregone conclusion.

  33. huffdaddyco says: Nov 9, 2012 8:43 AM

    joeyd524 says: Nov 8, 2012 8:19 PM

    Been betting football longer than most of you been alive..I love dogs..

    K.c outright..

    ______________________________________

    So, I guess you have been losing those bets as well then.

  34. steelbydesign says: Nov 9, 2012 12:16 PM

    I’m a Steelers fan and I wouldn’t take KC outright, but I would take them with the points.

    The Steelers historically play down to bad teams, they just came off a big win against the defending champs, and have the Ravens next week. That means they’re coming off a big game, and looking ahead to one.

  35. htown1035 says: Nov 9, 2012 12:34 PM

    Those of you that keep comparing this game with the Texans/Bears to the Packers game, keep this in mind:

    – Aaron Rodgers was ticked off of all the criticism he was getting and played the best game of his career.

    – The Texans came out and actually played them well, but nothing could stop Rodgers and the throws he was making.

    – The Texans don’t want to get embarrassed again on Sunday night and they’ll be fired up for this game.

    – Cutler doesn’t play well against teams that pressure him, which the Texans will certainly do.

    – The Bears lead the league in takeaways, but the Texans lead the league in not turning the ball over.

    My pick is 27-17 Texans.

  36. n0hopeleft says: Nov 9, 2012 1:56 PM

    geniusfan says:
    Nov 8, 2012 10:38 AM
    “I’ve got more faith in the Giants getting it done, especially since Eli Manning will surely have the benefit of some insights from his big brother, who won four days ago in Cincinnati.”

    Yup. Peyton will let Eli know how to throw it to the other team twice just like last week. The only question is if the Giants will have a kick return for a touchdown to bail their Manning brother out.

    _______________________________

    Somebody is still upset that the Giants have a better QB, with more hardware, than his team.

    Go cry.

  37. mkuske says: Nov 9, 2012 6:27 PM

    “The Texans haven’t been stepping up in high-profile games, which doesn’t bode well for the playoffs.”

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

    What a freakin’ b00b! The Texans have one — count ‘em — ONE loss. They dominated the Broncos, they dismantled the Ravens. 5 of their 7 victories have been by 12 points or more and 1 of the other 2 victories they led by 20 going into the 4th quarter! Of course this is coming from a guy that thinks the Giants, who could easily be 3-6 right now, are a solid team. What a clown!

  38. greggatx says: Nov 9, 2012 10:21 PM

    The Texans had one bad game but they won’t against the bears. And BTW their loss is to the same team the Texans loss too. Not to mention they bearly beat the lions and panthers (2-6). The bears will go down!

  39. petee224 says: Nov 11, 2012 9:22 AM

    joeyd524 says:
    Nov 8, 2012 8:19 PM
    Been betting football longer than most of you been alive..

    Hey Joey, the old white men running this country have been doing so longer than most of us have been alive. I guess you’re right, I’m gonna go bet the bank on KC.

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to leave a comment. Not a member? Register now!