PFT’s Week Ten picks

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The lead is back to five.

Last week, we disagreed on one game:  Eagles at Saints.  I took the home team, MDS took the road team.  And I ended up 10-4 for the week to MDS’s 9-5.

This week, we disagree on twice as many games as last week.  Which sounds better than two.

For the year, I’m 83-49, and MDS is 78-54.  Yep, that’s a five-game lead.  Which definitely sounds better than two.

Colts at Jaguars

MDS’s take: The 5-3 Colts have an easy enough schedule the rest of the way that if they just win the games they should win, they’ll finish the season with a winning record. One of the games they should win is this one, and I think they will.

MDS’s pick: Colts 20, Jaguars 17.

Florio’s take:  The last time the Colts visited Jacksonville, a win by the home team ensured that Andrew Luck would head to Indy.  The Colts return as a playoff contender, intent on avenging a September home loss to the Jaguars.

Florio’s pick:  Colts 27, Jaguar 20.

Raiders at Ravens

MDS’s take: For a 6-2 team, the Ravens have a lot of question marks, especially on their aged and injured defense. But the Raiders have even more problems on defense, and I like Baltimore to win a high-scoring game.

MDS’s pick: Ravens 35, Raiders 31.

Florio’s take:  The Raiders aren’t as bad as you’d think, and the Ravens aren’t as good.  Look for Baltimore’s decimated run defense to thrive against Oakland’s decimated running game, and for the Ravens to do enough to fend off the Steelers as a pair of games against Pittsburgh loom on the schedule.

Florio’s pick:  Ravens 31, Raiders 14.

Broncos at Panthers

MDS’s take: Broncos coach John Fox will win back at his old stomping grounds in Carolina, where Peyton Manning will pick apart the Panthers’ defense while Von Miller will make Cam Newton’s life miserable.

MDS’s pick: Broncos 28, Panthers 14.

Florio’s take:  John Fox returns to Charlotte with a quarterback far better than any he ever had when he coached the Panthers.  Against a team with plenty of guys Fox knows very well.  The Carolina winning streak ends at one.

Florio’s pick:  Broncos 30, Panthers 20.

Giants at Bengals

MDS’s take: I could pick this game with confidence if I knew which Giants team was going to show up. Will it be the team that showed up for 60 minutes and pounded the 49ers, or the team that sleepwalked through long stretches of close wins against the Redskins and Cowboys, and a close loss to the Steelers? Given the way the Giants have played the last three weeks I’m tempted to go with the upset, but the Bengals’ defense has been so bad this season that Eli Manning simply has to have a good game.

MDS’s pick: Giants 29, Bengals 25.

Florio’s take:  The Bengals are in a free fall, and the Giants are caught in the early stages of their annual midseason swoon.  I’ve got more faith in the Giants getting it done, especially since Eli Manning will surely have the benefit of some insights from his big brother, who won four days ago in Cincinnati.

Florio’s pick:  Giants 31, Bengals 20.

Titans at Dolphins

MDS’s take: The Dolphins missed a golden opportunity to establish themselves as the AFC wild-card frontrunners on Sunday against the Colts, but I still like the way this team is playing, especially on defense. The Titans got a tongue-lashing from their owner after another bad loss on Sunday against the Bears, but that won’t be enough to shake them out of their doldrums.

MDS’s pick: Dolphins 35, Titans 17.

Florio’s take:  Jake Locker returns, his left shoulder coincidentally healing at the time Matt Hasselbeck lost his hot hand.  Locker will learn what everyone else has learned this year.  The Miami defense is pretty good.

Florio’s pick:  Dolphins 17, Titans 13.

Lions at Vikings

MDS’s take: When these teams met in Week Four in Detroit, the Vikings were bolstered by two kick return touchdowns and won 20-13. But the Lions have shored up their special teams problems, Vikings kickoff returner Percy Harvin is hurt, and the Lions should earn their first NFC North victory of the season in the rematch in Minnesota.

MDS’s pick: Lions 23, Vikings 10.

Florio’s take:  With a brutal post-bye schedule, this game could determine whether the Vikings will finish 6-10 or 5-11.  I’ll pick the Vikings now, primarily because it’s the last time I’ll pick them all season.

Florio’s pick:  Vikings 23, Lions 20.

Bills at Patriots

MDS’s take: In another rematch of a Week Four meeting, the Bills’ defense is in big trouble.  It probably won’t get quite as ugly for Buffalo as it did in the Patriots’ 52-28 win in September, but the Patriots will put plenty of points on the board.

MDS’s pick: Patriots 38, Bills 20.

Florio’s take:  The Pats scored 45 points against the Rams in 60 minutes, and 45 against the Bills in 25.  New England needs to keep its foot on the gas in order to get ready for some tough challenges that are waiting in the postseason.

Florio’s pick:  Patriots 38, Bills 21.

Falcons at Saints

MDS’s take: The Saints have won three out of four, and a win here would signal that New Orleans really has turned its season around. Unfortunately, there are just too many holes on the Saints’ defense for New Orleans to stop a Falcons team that can attack with Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones, Tony Gonzalez, Michael Turner and Jacquizz Rodgers. This Falcons team just has too many weapons.

MDS’s pick: Falcons 27, Saints 21.

Florio’s take:  Halfway to an unblemished regular season, the Falcons simply don’t have the feel of a 16-0 team.  With four games against the Saints and Bucs over the balance of the year, the Falcons most likely won’t be.  It starts now, with the Saints staking their claim for a wild-card berth by hanging loss No. 1 on Atlanta.

Florio’s pick:  Saints 28, Falcons 27.

Chargers at Buccaneers

MDS’s take: With running back Doug Martin and a solid front seven on defense, the Bucs are becoming exactly the kind of team Greg Schiano wanted to build: A team that wins by running and stopping the run. Tampa Bay will do it again against a Chargers team that has yet to beat a good opponent all season.

MDS’s pick: Buccaneers 16, Chargers 14.

Florio’s take:  By playing last Thursday, the Chargers had some extra time to figure out how to stop the Muscle Hamster.  It won’t be enough.

Florio’s pick:  Buccaneers 27, Chargers 21.

Jets at Seahawks

MDS’s take: Seattle is a tough team to play for anyone, but I see Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez and his receiving corps having a particularly tough game against a good Seahawks secondary. Rex Ryan will have a good game plan to contain Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson, but the Seahawks’ defense will lead the way to a low-scoring win.

MDS’s pick: Seahawks 12, Jets 7.

Florio’s take:  The Pete Carroll-Mark Sanchez reunion provides a great story line.  But the bottom line is that it’s foolish to pick against the Seahawks at home.

Florio’s pick:  Seahawks 21, Jets 13.

Cowboys at Eagles

MDS’s take: Until Monday night, I was still a believer in the Eagles’ ability to turn their season around. But Philly’s offensive line looked terrible, the defense looked like it has taken a step backward with the departure of coordinator Juan Castillo, and the Eagles look like they’re ready to pack it in for the season. The Cowboys may still make a run at the playoffs, but the Eagles are done.

MDS’s pick: Cowboys 24, Eagles 14.

Florio’s take:  It’s a early playoff game between two teams that are destined to miss the playoffs.  In the past two weeks, the Cowboys gave the Falcons a much better game in Atlanta than the Eagles gave the Falcons at home.

Florio’s pick:  Cowboys 24, Eagles 21.

Rams at 49ers

MDS’s take: The 49ers’ defense has had a few letdowns, but when they’re on their game it’s just about impossible to score on them. And they’ll be on their game against a mediocre Rams offense.

MDS’s pick: 49ers 20, Rams 3.

Florio’s take:  Lost in the success of the Falcons and the Bears, the resurgence of the Packers, and the collapse of the Eagles, the Niners are ready to remind everyone that they may be the best team in the conference.

Florio’s pick:  49ers 27, Rams 9.

Texans at Bears

MDS’s take: In the best game of the week, the Bears’ opportunistic defense will try to force turnovers against a Texans offense whose quarterback, Matt Schaub, has only four turnovers all season. I like the Bears to get the best of it.

MDS’s pick: Bears 17, Texans 10.

Florio’s take:  The Texans haven’t been stepping up in high-profile games, which doesn’t bode well for the playoffs.

Florio’s pick:  Bears 19, Texans 13.

Chiefs at Steelers

MDS’s take: The Steelers are on a three-game winning streak and the Chiefs are in a tailspin. The Monday night game will be over by halftime, and millions of Americans will go to bed early.

MDS’s pick: Steelers 34, Chiefs 9.

Florio’s take:  Todd Haley gets a crack at the Chiefs.  But the Chiefs also get a crack at Todd Haley.  If this one were being played in Kansas City, I’d take the upset.  But it’s hard to imagine a one-win team toppling the Steelers in their own building.

Florio’s pick:  Steelers 24, Chiefs 16.

AP

New York Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez has taken plenty of abuse – most of it justified – from teammates, media and fans alike for his performance as the team’s starter the last two seasons.

Teammates anonymously took shots at the Jets signal-caller last year and have continued to do so well into the offseason.

But not every member of the Jets appears to be down on Sanchez as the team’s starting quarterback. Center Nick Mangold expressed support for Sanchez during a promotional event on Wednesday.

“I believe so,” Mangold said when asked if the locker room supports Sanchez, via Bart Hubbuch of the New York Post. “I haven’t walked around with a pen and paper and taken a poll, but from the feeling I get, the locker room wants to win. Whoever gives us the best chance to do that, we want out there — and at this point, Mark gives us that best chance.”

Sanchez had arguably the worst season of his four-year career last season. He completed just 54.3-percent of his pass attempts with 13 touchdowns and 18 interceptions. He also fumbled 14 times and lost eight (butt fumble included) – both career-highs.

The Jets have to get better quarterback play next season regardless of who is the starter. Mangold said he liked what he saw from Sanchez during the team’s offseason program and thinks it will be a tall task for rookie Geno Smith to supplant Sanchez as the Jets’ starter.

“Mark had a little bit better idea of the ideas and of seeing things, which are things Geno is going to have to work his butt off on,” Mangold said.

AP

Earlier today, Tom Curran of CSN New England gave an ominous assessment of the manner in which the investigation regarding a death of Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez’s “associate” could unfold.

It’s apparently unfolding.

The victim has officially been identified as 27-year-old Odin Lloyd, and his death has been ruled a homicide.  According to FOX 25 in Boston, police have determined that four men — including Hernandez and Odin Lloyd — were in a vehicle together after leaving a bar, and that only three of the men returned to Hernandez’s home.

Per the report, and supplemented by tweets from Ted Daniel of FOX 25, forensic evidence collected by police places a vehicle “driven by” Hernandez at the “crime scene.”  It’s unclear whether the crime scene was the location where Lloyd’s body was found, or whether the crime (i.e., the site of Lloyd’s murder) occurred elsewhere.

FOX 25 also reports that Lloyd sent a text to a friend referring to Hernandez.

Our mildly-educated guess is that more evidence of text messages and other electronically-created footprints will be used to further piece together the puzzle.

AP

Regarded as a potential deep threat, Vikings first-round receiver Cordarrelle Patterson has something that arguably will be even more valuable over the balance of his career, if he keeps it — the ability to get open at the top of his route.

Veteran Greg Jennings praised Patterson for what Jennings calls “that definitive step,” which creates separation from the defensive back.

“I remember coming out [of college],” Jennings said, via Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com.  “I had that definitive step.  That kind of gets washed out because everything they teach you is that they want everything to look the same.  The definitive step starts to kind of fade away, but that’s what creates that separation.  I just told him, do not lose that.  Because the more I see him do that, the more I remember when I used to do that and create so much, even more separation.  I’m starting to creep that back in. . . .

“That’s a gift. You can’t really teach that.  He has it.  And I remember, that was me.  I was coming out and sticking everything.  And the coaches were like, ‘We just want to round it, we just want to round it.’  Slowly but surely, I started rounding everything.  The route still looks good, but it just doesn’t have that crispness about it.”

As for Patterson’s speed, that’s a given.  “If you see the back of his jersey, you might a well stop running, because it’s over,” Jennings said.

The Vikings have been trying to keep expectations low for Patterson as a rookie.  With first-round phenoms like Randy Moss in 1998 and Percy Harvin in 2009, too much pressure to excel could turn Patterson into another Troy Williamson.  Vikings fans would surely settle for something in between, since that would mean the offensive has discovered balance.

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The Dolphins got their Mt. Rushmore today, and three of them were easy:  Shula, Marino, Csonka.

The only discrepancy between Pro Football Talk and PFT Planet came on the question of whether Bob Griese or Jason Taylor should get the fourth spot.

Watch the video, hear the debate, check out the voting results, and chime in below.

Along the way, feel free to argue for or against our decision to omit team founder Joe Robbie from the list of finalists.

AP

In the post-bounty NFL, players and coaches aren’t supposed to say publicly the stuff they undoubtedly scream privately.  Titans safety Bernard Pollard didn’t get the memo.  Or he doesn’t care.

Bet the latter.

“I don’t care what they have to say,” Pollard said regarding those who may criticize him for using such blunt language, via Jim Wyatt of the Tennessean.  “If they feel like we’re going to carry guns and knives and try and stab people and try and kill them, shame on you. You are an idiot.  For us, when we say kill, we want to go out there and knock the [heck] out of people, we want to hit you.  And for me, we’re going to help you up because I’m going to knock you back down.  I have been at plenty of pee-wee football games where I have seen my son, my daughter, and you hear parents, you hear women, white, black, Hispanic, Chinese, Japanese, telling their sons, ‘Kill them! Telling their daughters, Kill them!’

“Do I believe they mean kill them?  Literally kill them?  No.  So if you have never played this game before and you want to take that and run with it, go ahead.  Shame on you.  You’re a fool.”

Some would say Pollard is the fool for so brazenly using the kind of tough talk that underscored the one-year banishment of former Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, who coincidentally now works for the Titans.  The bounty scandal has driven “kill”-type comments out of the NFL mainstream, prompting strong reactions in those rare situations where, for example, Titans defensive coordinator Jerry Gray refers to firing up the “Gator Truck” or Bills defensive lineman Mario Williams says that he always hears defensive coordinator Mike Pettine say “Kill ‘em or hurt ‘em,” one day before saying Williams has actually never heard that.

Pollard’s defiance almost guarantees that he’ll hear from the league office, where Commissioner Roger Goodell is striving to make the game safer.  Or to at least make the game appear safer.

“I really don’t care what the Commissioner is doing,” Pollard said.  “I don’t think he has ever played football, he has never played in the National Football League and he has never walked in my shoes.  And I haven’t walked in his either.  I don’t know what he has to say about me, and to be perfectly honest, I don’t care what he has to say about me.  I know that we have to have that mentality to play the game. You have to be [ticked] off, and you have to do some things to [tick] other people off. . . .  If you don’t like that, I’m sorry for you.  We’re not going to change, and we’re not going to apologize.”

Of course, Pollard is the same guy who declared that the NFL will be gone in 30 years, presumably due in large part to the mentality he so fiercely embraces.  The end result is the kind of maddening inconsistency that helps explain why Pollard has bounced from team to team (to team to team) during his career.

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For three of the spots on the Bills’ Mt. Rushmore, the process was easy: Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas, and O.J. Simpson.

For the last spot, things got slightly more complex.

I gave it to receiver Andre Reed, and PFT Planet awarded it to defensive end Bruce Smith.

Check out the video of the segment from the Pro Football Talk on NBCSN discussion, featuring Frank Wycheck, Ross Tucker, Erik Kuselias, and yours truly.

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Last week, former NBA coach Phil Jackson called the term Redskins “highly offensive.”  This week, a former NHL coach of Native American origin agreed with the assessment.

“I’d be very offended,” former Sabres and Islanders coach Ted Nolan told Tim Graham of the Buffalo News regarding the prospect of being greeted with a label the D.C. football team insists is an honor.

“There are certain things you can’t call black people or Chinese people or Jewish people. We as Native Americans, or First Nation people as we’re called in Canada, we find it offensive, too,” Nolan said.

“Sure, the Redskins name has been around for generations, but when you’re a person of that race and someone calls you a redskin, they don’t know why they’re saying it, where the word comes form or what the word means,” Nolan said.

“I never did like the word. And that’s where the president of the United States lives.  It doesn’t compute.”

With that, Nolan becomes the most prominent Native American with ties to the sports world to speak out against the name.  His words could influence other Native Americans to abandon their nonchalance regarding the term, causing opposition to become more organized — and to expand.

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Controversial Chargers physician David Chao recently resigned his post with the team due to health concerns, along with a desire to spend more time with his family.

The decision apparently was influenced by a fairly important external development.  According to Brent Schrotenboer of USA Today, a pair of San Diego hospitals had barred Chao from performing surgeries.

“I have been informed that Dr. Chao has lost his surgical privileges with the only two hospitals he had surgical privileges with: Scripps Mercy [Hospital] and Scripps [Memorial Hospital],” an attorney said in a sworn declaration submitted in connection with a pending lawsuit against Chao.  “This has led, apparently, to Dr. Chao resigning his position with the Chargers. This will also inevitably lead to the closure of . . . Dr. Chao’s surgical practice.”

Chao’s attorney disputed the claim, arguing that Chao still had a page on the hospitals’ website.  And then Chao disappeared from the hospitals’ website, according to Schrotenboer.  A spokesperson for the facilities declined comment.

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The Mt. Rushmore process moves to the AFC West on Friday, with the team that has won the division the last two years.

The Broncos, who once won a pair of Super Bowls with John Elway on the field, is now shooting for another one (or more) with Elway running the football operation.

It’s a given that Elway will have one of the spots.  Vote for him and up to three others from the 12 finalists below.

We’ll pull the sheet off the mountain, as we always do, on NBCSN’s Pro Football Talk.

AP

The Panthers signed wide receiver Dale Moss on Wednesday, the NFL disclosed in its transactions.

Moss, 24, was waived by the Bears on June 10. The 6-4, 197-pound South Dakota State product entered the NFL as an undrafted free agent with Green Bay in 2012. He  played basketball in college before transitioning to football in 2011.

Moss is the nephew of Johnny Rodgers, the 1972 Heisman Trophy winner for Nebraska.

In a corresponding move, the Panthers waived-injured another wide receiver, R.J. Webb. The nature of his injury is unknown. Webb signed with the Panthers on May 13 after trying out with the club during its rookie minicamp. The 25-year-old wideout played for Furman University from 2005 through 2009.

The Panthers have 13 wide receivers, with Steve Smith and Brandon LaFell the starters.

AP

It’s been a day since the latest now-I’ve-seen-everything story emerged in the NFL, and there’s still not much clarity regarding the investigation involving the death of an “associate” of Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez.

But as Tom Curran of CSN New England explained on Wednesday’s edition of Pro Football Talk on NBCSN, the process could still lead to an unfavorable outcome for Hernandez.

“[T]here’s so much to plow through and I think right now we’re at the table-setting stage,” Curran said.  “There’s a sense that law enforcement is getting all its ducks in a row and then they’ll spill them on the table to put a case together.”

The Patriots remain tight lipped, both publicly and privately.

“Not a word,” Curran said regarding the team.  “This is a period of time that the NFL kind of shuts down.  I’m not sure even if [coach] Bill Belichick is in the country right now.  I know he had a European vacation planned; he may be out of the country.  Given the circumstances and the way this could conceivably go, because it’s not pretty, he might be in a situation where he might have to come back.  I think that this is a serious situation that bears a lot of close watching over the next couple of days.”

The process, as Curran separately explained in writing, will entail a sweeping examination of all available and relevant evidence.

From the CSI-style stuff that modern juries now expect to see to electronic information harvested from cell phones and computers to surveillance systems that may have been in place at the industrial park where the body was found or at Hernandez’s home, plenty of potential proof is floating around.  Curran says that investigators will instruct cellular providers to freeze any information in place, in the event that any of the witnesses try to destroy his or her phone.

And any attempt by any of the witnesses to erase or eliminate electronic evidence won’t look good when the time comes to determine whether folks are guilty of any crimes.

At this point, it’s unclear how many crimes were or may have been committed, beyond the most obvious one:  Murder.  In the coming days and weeks, more information will likely surface.  For now, it’s still possible that things will go poorly for Hernandez.

AP

In his first season in Atlanta after nine years in St. Louis, Steven Jackson is ready to get fewer carries. But Jackson thinks the carries he does get are going to lead to more wins.

Jackson says he’s ready for a lower quantity of carries but higher quality carries — meaning, he thinks the Falcons are going to have a lot of fourth-quarter leads, and they’re going to hand off to Jackson a lot to protect those leads.

“This offense has so many weapons that I’m going to get quality carries,” Jackson said. “I’m going to have opportunities — they may not be 25 carries a game, but they’re going to be quality carries that allow me to close out a game.”

That would be great news for Falcons coach Mike Smith, who said that in addition to Jackson running the ball, the Falcons will incorporate Jackson into their passing game as well.

“He’s a guy that can catch the ball out of the backfield, does a good job with checkdown screens, and he’s a big guy,” Smith said. “When he gets his shoulders going north and south, he’s a tough guy to tackle. We plan on hopefully getting him in space quite a bit, with him catching the ball out of the backfield.”

As both a runner and a receiver, Jackson should be an upgrade over last year’s No. 1 running back, Michael Turner. The presence of Jackson makes an already good offense better.

AP

The Cowboys have unanswered questions at safety, but at least they have them all under contract at the moment.

According to Tim MacMahon of ESPNDallas.com, the Cowboys agreed to a deal with third-rounder J.J. Wilcox Wednesday.

That leaves only their top two picks, first-round center Travis Frederick and second-round tight end Gavin Escobar without deals.

Wilcox could challenge for a starting job this year among an odd lot of players in the secondary there, but his speed (he’s a former receiver and running back at Georgia Southern) and hitting ability figures to lead to a role on special teams in the short term.

In the never ending quest to make the in-stadium experience more desirable than staying at home (except for the “clear plastic bags only” thing), teams are looking for ways to upgrade their NFL venues.

The Jaguars announced today that they’re joining the battle to have the biggest and best video systems.

The team unveiled today an agreement with Jacksonville to make roughly “$63 million in major enhancements” to EverBank Field.  The enhancements will include new video boards in each end zone, measuring 55 by 301 feet each.

That’s 301 feet.  As in one foot longer than the length of the field.

A new platform area will be added to the north end of the stadium, which will result in the removal of 7,000 seats.

The Jags will kick in roughly $20 million, with the City of Jacksonville picking up the rest.  The Jags will be responsible for any cost overruns.

Jaguars fans already are declaring that this means the team will never move.  And while it makes the abandonment of Jacksonville less likely, it’s still too early to rule out a split schedule between Jacksonville and England.

After all, it’s only $63 million in enhancements.  It’s not like they’re building a new stadium.

AP

Veteran tackle Barry Richardson wasn’t the only player to sign a contract with the Titans on Wednesday.

Jim Wyatt of the Tennessean reports that the Titans have signed cornerback Blidi Wreh-Wilson, one of their two third-round picks in April’s draft. With Wreh-Wilson under contract, the Titans only need to sign first-round guard Chance Warmack to put a bow on their entire draft class.

Wreh-Wilson made 39 starts and intercepted eight passes during his career at the University of Connecticut, but probably isn’t headed toward a starting job in his rookie season with the Titans. Jason McCourty will start at one corner and Tommie Campbell has been pushing Alterraun Verner, who has also seen time at safety during OTAs, for the starting job on the other side.

Second-year player Coty Sensabaugh also figures into the mix somewhere, so Wreh-Wilson isn’t just going to have immediate playing time handed to him during camp.