PFT’s Week 13 picks

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With 176 games completed, the gap has been cut from seven to two.

After a four-game sweep of our disagreements in Week 11, MDS posted another 3-1 mark in Week 12, making it very interesting over the final five weeks.

This week, we have only one disagreement.  So it’ll be down to one or back to three by Monday.  (I are good at the math.)

Of course, that doesn’t mean we’ll be right on the picks on which we agree.  But we’re doing OK.  MDS was 11-5 for Week 12, and I was 9-7.  For the season, I’m at 112-63-1, a 63.6 percent accuracy rate.  MDS is 110-65-1, which equates to 62.5 percent.

Saints at Falcons

MDS’s take: It sounds crazy to say this about a 5-6 team facing a 10-1 team, but right now the Saints are playing better football than the Falcons. Having said that, I have a hunch the Falcons will turn in their best effort of the season at home against the team that gave them their only loss.

MDS’s pick: Falcons 28, Saints 21.

Florio’s take:  An already contentious rivalry will become even more contentious now that eggs have flown into the Saints bus and former Falcons linebacker Curtis Lofton has declared that his new team, the Saints, don’t regard the rivalry as a rivalry, given that the Saints have won 11 of 13.  With the Falcons closing in on a playoff berth and sensitive about the perception that they can’t win big games at home, it’s time to drop the Saints’ mark against the Falcons to 11 of 14.

Florio’s pick:  Falcons 27, Saints 24.

Jaguars at Bills

MDS’s take: Jaguars quarterback Chad Henne has been impressive enough since replacing Blaine Gabbert that I’m tempted to pick the Jags to pull off a home upset. But these are still the Jaguars, and even if Henne has improved the offense, they still have a terrible defense, plus the Bills have a big special teams edge.

MDS’s pick: Bills 27, Jaguars 23.

Florio’s take:  The Jags are riding a rare one-game winning streak.  The Bill are trying to break a not-so-rare one-game losing streak.  Home team gets the advantage, even though the Jaguars are better with Chad Henne at quarterback.

Florio’s pick:  Bills 24, Jaguars 17.

Seahawks at Bears

MDS’s take: This might be the day’s most interesting game, especially if you enjoy watching teams that play tough, physical defense. I think Seattle’s defensive front has the potential to make life a nightmare for Jay Cutler playing behind the Bears’ woeful offensive line, and yet the Seahawks have struggled so much away from home that I’m taking the Bears in a close one.

MDS’s pick: Bears 14, Seahawks 13.

Florio’s take:  It’s chicken salad time for the Chicago offensive line, with failed first-round tackle Gabe Carimi being pressed into service at guard.  But Jay Cutler knows how to avoid the pressure and deliver the ball, and the Seahawks still haven’t learned how to win on the road.

Florio’s pick:  Bears 23, Seahawks 13.

Colts at Lions

MDS’s take: The Lions are playing better football than their record suggests, while the Colts are playing worse football than their record suggests. I still think Indianapolis will be a wild card team, but in this game Calvin Johnson will have a huge day against a weak secondary.

MDS’s pick: Lions 31, Colts 20.

Florio’s take:  Assuming that the Lions haven’t folded the tents after a season-crushing Thanksgiving loss, they’ve got the horses to hold off a Colts team that has yet to learn how to win away from Indy consistently.

Florio’s pick:  Lions 27, Colts 20.

Vikings at Packers

MDS’s take: Green Bay had a letdown against the Giants last week, but that won’t happen again. This is the game when the Packers pull ahead of the pack in the NFC wild card race, as well as staying within striking distance of the Bears in the NFC North.

MDS’s pick: Packers 34, Vikings 13.

Florio’s take:  Minnesota has embarked on its long-expected late-season collapse, and the Packers will be extra salty after getting peppered by the Giants.  This one could get ugly.

Florio’s pick:  Packers 34, Vikings 13.

Panthers at Chiefs

MDS’s take: It’s too late for the Panthers to get back in the playoff race, but I do see them going on a little bit of a late-season run. With Cam Newton playing well, they’ll easily win in Kansas City.

MDS’s pick: Panthers 27, Chiefs 9.

Florio’s take:  The Chiefs can’t lose every game the rest of the season, can they?  Carolina is on the road after a Monday night on the road, cramming two rounds of travel into a short week after a game in which they are feeling better about themselves than they should.  The Chiefs, if they don’t win this one, may not win another.  Ever.

Florio’s pick:  Chiefs 20, Panthers 16.

Patriots at Dolphins

MDS’s take: I like a lot about the way the Dolphins are playing, especially defensively. And the Patriots’ secondary has a bad tendency to leave receivers wide open, so Ryan Tannehill may have a decent statistical game. But New England’s offense is such a well-oiled machine that I like the Patriots to get into the end zone five or six times.

MDS’s pick: Patriots 38, Dolphins 28.

Florio’s take:  The Dolphins will win if the sprinklers come on again.  And if the are loaded with hydrochloric acid and aimed at the eyes of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.  Otherwise, advantage Pats.

Florio’s pick:  Patriots 35, Dolphins 24.

Cardinals at Jets

MDS’s take: This is a stinker of a game between two teams with all kinds of problems at the quarterback position, but it says something about how far the Cardinals have sunk that Mark Sanchez is easily the top quarterback in this game.

MDS’s pick: Jets 20, Cardinals 10.

Florio’s take:  It’s easy to assume the Jets will continue their implosion.  The schedule suggests they could win five in a row.  They may not get to 9-7, but 5-7 is looking pretty promising.

Florio’s pick:  Jets 30, Cardinals 17.

49ers at Rams

MDS’s take: I don’t think this game is going to be easy for the 49ers because St. Louis isn’t an easy place to play anymore, but in the end San Francisco just has too much power on both sides of the ball for the Rams to have much of a chance.

MDS’s pick: 49ers 24, Rams 13.

Florio’s take:  They pick up where they left off after five quarters that ended in a tie.  The Rams try to extend their 3-0-1 record in the NFC West.  The Niners are simply a better team with Colin Kaepernick at quarterback.

Florio’s pick:  49ers 31, Rams 23.

Texans at Titans

MDS’s take: The Titans fired offensive coordinator Chris Palmer this week, as if that will fix anything. The Titans’ problems go much deeper than the offensive playcalling, and the Texans — getting a well deserved three extra days of rest following their back-to-back overtime games the last two weeks — will look fresh and win this one handily.

MDS’s pick: Texans 41, Titans 20.

Florio’s take:  Yes, before the season I thought the the Titans, who were unexpectedly 9-7 in 2011, were poised to topple the Texans.  It hasn’t happened.  And it won’t happen for the Titans on Sunday, not with the Texans closing in on their second straight playoff berth.

Florio’s pick:  Texans 27, Titans 14.

Buccaneers at Broncos

MDS’s take: The Bucs are thin in the secondary after trading away Aqib Talib and losing Eric Wright to a suspension, and Peyton Manning is the last quarterback you want to face when you’re thin in the secondary. Manning will pick the Bucs’ defense apart. The best chance the Bucs have of keeping this game close is to control the ball by running Doug Martin, but in the end Manning will just have too much for Tampa Bay.

MDS’s pick: Broncos 35, Buccaneers 24.

Florio’s take:  With Eric Wright suspended and Aqib Talib long gone, it’ll be a long day for the Bucs’ porous pass defense.

Florio’s pick:  Broncos 31, Buccaneers 21.

Steelers at Ravens

MDS’s take: The Steelers need this one, but they’re not going to get it. Without Ben Roethlisberger the Steelers just aren’t a very good team, and I expect the Ravens to earn a big win that helps them pull away in the AFC North.

MDS’s pick: Ravens 23, Steelers 7.

Florio’s take:  With or without Ben Roethlisberger, the Ravens are tough to beat at home.  And even though it would be fitting for the Steelers to win in Baltimore after the Ravens won in Pittsburgh, the Ravens are the better team — and the Steelers are on the verge of a late-season implosion.  All that’s left is for coach Mike Tomlin to vow to “unleash hell.”

Florio’s pick:  Ravens 19, Steelers 13.

Browns at Raiders

MDS’s take: Both teams are 3-8, but they’re a different 3-8. The Browns are a 3-8 team that is playing competitive football and has a lot of young guys who look hungry. The Raiders are a 3-8 team that just wrapped up an 0-4 November in which their four losses came by a total of 90 points. The Browns will go into the Black Hole and come out with their first road win of the season.

MDS’s pick: Browns 21, Raiders 17.

Florio’s take:  The Browns are better than their record suggests.  The Raiders are worse.  With Browns players trying to save the job of their head coach (and in turn their own jobs), Cleveland has more incentive to try to emerge with a win.

Florio’s pick:  Browns 17, Raiders 13.

Bengals at Chargers

MDS’s take: The Bengals are rolling and the Chargers are reeling. Marvin Lewis will take another step toward the playoffs while Norv Turner takes another step toward the unemployment line.

MDS’s pick: Bengals 24, Chargers 14.

Florio’s take:  San Diego’s AFC North tour continues, and they wish it wouldn’t.  After losing to the Browns and to the Ravens, a surging Cincinnati team is ready to keep pushing toward their first consecutive playoff appearances in non-strike years.

Florio’s pick:  Bengals 27, Chargers 17.

Eagles at Cowboys

MDS’s take: The Eagles have given up on the season. At this point I don’t think I’d pick them to beat anyone, and I certainly won’t pick them to win on the road against a Cowboys team that still has slim playoff hopes.

MDS’s pick: Cowboys 28, Eagles 20.

Florio’s take:  Philly is in a full-blown free fall.  After seeing them lose to the lowly Panthers, I’m done picking them until next September at the earliest.  The Cowboys aren’t much better, but they’re good enough (and sufficiently healthier) to get it done.

Florio’s pick:  Cowboys 34, Eagles 20.

Giants at Redskins

MDS’s take: The Redskins have done a great job of pulling themselves back into NFC East contention, and if you want to see an interesting playoff race in December you should be rooting for the Redskins to beat the Giants on Monday night. But Robert Griffin III playing so well as a rookie has masked the fact that the Redskins have big problems on both sides of the ball. The Giants will be too much for them.

MDS’s pick: Giants 34, Redskins 17.

Florio’s take:  The Giants have awoken from their slumber.  That may not be enough to contain a streaking RG3 in his Monday night debut.  Forced to make a choice, however, let’s stick with the team that has shown that it still has the ability to periodically play up to its potential.  Especially when it has to.

Florio’s pick:  Giants 31, Redskins 27.

AP

The Broncos continue to deal with the aftermath of a special season that went awry during a divisional-round double-overtime playoff loss to the Ravens, fueled by a 70-yard touchdown pass allowed by the Denver defense in the final minute of regulation.

Defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio was sorry for what happened.  But then he got sick of being sorry.

“I got tired of apologizing to our fans that I would see out in the community,” Del Rio told reporters on Tuesday, via quotes distributed by the team.  “I finally said, ‘Hey, you know, it’s time to move on.’   That’s kind of how I look at it.  I was apologizing.  I was like, ‘Golly, I’m really sorry that we let you down.  I know how you were there with us.’   It was a tough one.  Anywhere, wherever you see fans and we have interactions.  I really felt like we let them down.  Obviously we let ourselves down first.”

But Del Rio is done with feeling sorry for himself, or to anyone else.

“That’s way in the past now,” Del Rio said.  “At this point, it’s in our rear-view mirror.  You learn what you can about anything that you experience in life and go forward.  That’s where we are.  We’re going forward.”

As the Broncos go forward, they’ll continue to be regarded as an elite team with a real chance of going to Super Bowl XLVIII.  Still, they’ll have to emerge from the valley of 0-0 to get there.

After seeing last season’s regular-season success evaporate so quickly, that could be hard to do.

AP

On the off chance the Cowboys have any idea who’s calling plays this year, or how they’ll be called, they’re not in the mood to talk about.

For some reason, Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett still won’t say who is taking over the responsibility that by all appearances was snatched away from him by owner Jerry Jones this offseason.

“I think we have a pretty good plan, and we’ll execute it as the offseason progresses,” Garrett said, via Calvin Watkins of ESPNDallas.com.

No reason to be in a rush fellas, it’s only May.

The usual suspect is offensive line coach/coordinator Bill Callahan, but he ducked for cover when asked about what ought to be a fairly conventional process Tuesday.

“Whatever coach wants me to do, whatever role he wants me to fill, I’m more than happy to do that,” Callahan said. “We’re working through a lot of things right now. . . .

“When that play goes in, they’re all types of options that we build into the play itself. They can be checks with me, they can be packaged with another run, run-to-run, pass-to-pass. A lot of that [goes] on when the play goes in. You have to, from the people that I’ve spoken with around the NFL. There’s a lot of teams that use that mechanism, use that procedure. That’s one way of doing it.”

That points to the added influence quarterback Tony Romo will have. But no one knows whether to think quarterbacks coach Wade Wilson might have a hand in it, or another coach, or Jones himself.

But the latest simple thing-made-complicated can’t possibly help the Cowboys on the field.

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Tony Romo’s first coach with the Cowboys, Bill Parcells, liked to say that you are what your record says you are. But Romo doesn’t exactly see it that way.

Romo told reporters today that despite the Cowboys’ .500 record, he doesn’t view himself as average, or his team as average.

“We were 8-8 the last couple of years, that doesn’t sit well with me,” Romo said, via ESPNDallas.com. “I don’t think I’m an 8-8 quarterback. I don’t think this organization is comfortable being 8-8. We’re going to do everything we can as coaches, players and in this building to change that. I’m going to do everything I can to make sure that doesn’t happen again. That just sits there and eats at you. We make choices to do everything that we can to change that. That’s the approach you take in an offseason. Really every offseason, but it’s there, staring us in the face right now. We’re going to exhaust everything to make sure this football team gets better to take the next step.”

Romo said he believes the Cowboys are improving.

“Now it’s obviously been some good times and some times that we’ve had some rough spots, obviously,” Romo said. “In a lot of ways I know that this team is continuing to get better, and using those experiences to be better, and it’s going to be good.”

And 8-8 is not good.

AP

The Turk could be getting a visit from, well, the Turk.

At a press conference held in connection with the quarterly ownership meetings in Boston, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell said that the league is interested in making the process of widespread roster cuts more “humane,” according to multiple Twitter entries from folks covering the press conference.

Currently, the NFL’s teams jettison up to 37 players each in the days after the third preseason game through the days after fourth preseason game, cutting offseason rosters from a maximum of 90 down to 53.  Typically, the players who are getting cut are asked to meet with the coach or the G.M., they get the news, and then they move on.

It’s hard to envision a way to make the scene, which has played out numerous times on Hard Knocks over the past decade, any different.  For football players, who are used to being chewed out on the practice field, a calm, rational, matter-of-fact meeting is as “humane” as bad news ever gets.

Goodell also mentioned the possibility of post-cut services for players who will be faced with the task of transitioning to a new line of work.  Perhaps that’s how the process can become more “humane,” given that currently the players basically get a handshake and a clear path through the door.

Regardless, there’s only so much the NFL can do to alter the harsh reality that players get cut — routinely.  Whether they get a ribbon for participation or a pat on the back or a juice box or a swift kick in the ass, the end result is that the player who previously had a spot on the roster no longer does.  Other than making those post-cut services available to ease the transition to life after football, we’re not sure what else can be done.

Apart from, you know, not releasing a guy right after he is diagnosed with diabetes or any other health condition that can be managed and treated.

AP

In addition to discussing changes to the league’s offseason schedule on Tuesday in Boston, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell also addressed the future of the Pro Bowl.

The game is set for 2014 in Hawaii and Goodell said that the league is still contemplating changes to the game to make it more entertaining for fans and players alike. Goodell did not address talk about making the Pro Bowl more like a “game show” in the future, but he did touch on another proposal that’s been bandied about in recent weeks.

Goodell said that the idea of having team captains pick two squads from the players voted into the game under the current process was one that “may happen” as soon as this season. He credited players for coming up with the idea of having a schoolyard-style draft to set the rosters for the game and indicated that a decision could come soon about the format that this year’s game will take.

There wasn’t much direct discussion of the future of the game overall, although Goodell did say that the league had interest from cities on the mainland about hosting the game in the future. That (and still-strong TV ratings) could serve as a suggestion that the Pro Bowl isn’t going away despite the many complaints about its quality.

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Yet another former Eagle has landed in Cleveland.

On Tuesday, the Browns announced they were awarded rookie running back Miguel Maysonet on waivers from Philadelphia.

In something of a surprise move, the Eagles let go of Maysonet after giving him a healthy signing bonus for an undrafted free agent. In Cleveland, he will compete with Montario Hardesty, Chris Ogbonnaya, Brandon Jackson and Dion Lewis — another ex-Eagle — for backup spots in the Browns’ backfield.

With Maysonet arriving, the Browns waived fellow rookie tailback Jamaine Cook.

Trent Richarson is the Browns’ featured back, and Hardesty, Ogbonnaya and Jackson were his backups a season. The question is, who sticks on the depth chart behind Richardson this year? The competition got a little more crowded on Tuesday.

AP

At a press conference to wrap up the league meetings in Boston, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell said that the league saw “no choice” but moving next year’s draft to May because of a conflict with Radio City Music Hall.

Goodell said that a choice would be made soon about whether to hold the draft from May 8-10 or May 15-17 in New York. The change has been forced by a conflict with another event at the venue and Goodell said that there’s been no determination about when the event would be held beyond 2014. Because the conflicts with the spring event at Radio City will recur, the Commissioner also said that the draft could move if the decision was made to move things back to April in future years.

“Beyond that, if we want to move the draft back into April, we’ll have to look at other alternatives,” Goodell said.

Goodell also said that other proposed changes to the offseason schedule, including moving the start of the league year ahead of the combine were still being discussed with the NFLPA. Goodell said that he believed that such alterations would be a “good change for fans and for football” and that the league would continue working toward an agreement on a new calendar for February, March, April and May.

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The San Diego Chargers needed an offensive tackle. Max Starks needed a job. It just made sense for them to get together. So it’s no surprise that Starks agreed to terms with the Chargers today.

Starks told Josina Anderson of ESPN that he has accepted a one-year contract offer.

The 31-year-old Starks has played in Pittsburgh for his entire nine-year NFL career. Last season Starks started all 16 games for the Steelers.

The Chargers will likely have Starks and King Dunlap compete for the starting spot at left tackle, while first-round draft pick D.J. Fluker starts at right tackle.

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The Falcons have come to terms with with rookie tight end Levine Toilolo, the club said on Tuesday.

A fourth-round selection from Stanford, Toilolo is likely to fill a complementary role in the Atlanta offense as a rookie. He caught 24 passes for 393 yards and four touchdowns in 2012 for the Cardinal.

The return of Tony Gonzalez for 2013 gives the Falcons a proven pass-catching threat at tight end for 2013, but there could be a chance for the 6-foot-8, 260-pound Toilolo to contribute in multi-TE sets right off the bat. Moreover, he gets the chance to learn from a surefire first-ballot Hall of Famer in Gonzalez. Longer term, there is certainly a chance for Toilolo to earn a bigger role, what with Gonzalez nearing the end of his special career.

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There was some uncertainty about whether or not safety Reshad Jones was going to report for the start of OTAs with the rest of the Dolphins on Tuesday.

As it turns out, Jones wasn’t the member of the secondary to worry about. The safety reported for duty, but rookie cornerback Jamar Taylor missed the session. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports that Taylor had sports hernia surgery in Philadelphia on Tuesday instead of practicing with his teammates.

Taylor is expected to be sidelined four-to-six weeks as a result of the surgery, which means that he won’t be joining his teammates on the field for the remaining offseason workouts or the June minicamp. The second-round pick is expected to be healthy in time for the start of training camp.

If he is good to go at camp, Taylor will have to make up some lost time in the fight for snaps in the defensive backfield. Brent Grimes, Richard Marshall, Nolan Carroll, Dimitri Patterson and fellow rookie Will Davis will be his chief competition in that battle.

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The Mt. Rushmore nomination process descends into the Black Hole.

Yes, Raiders fans, it’s time to nominate candidates for the four-person Oakland/L.A/Oakland Mt. Rushmore.

Post your favorites below, and then at some point next month you’ll get to vote on  the final four from a list that may include Al Davis, John Madden, Ken Stabler, Marcus Allen, Fred Biletnikoff, Gene Upshaw, Art Shell, Ray Guy, George Blanda, Todd Christensen, Jack Tatum, Lester Hayes, Mike Haynes, Ted Hendricks, Howie Long, Willie Brown, Tim Brown, Tom Flores, Jim Otto, and/or some combination thereof.

Good luck.  You’ll need it.

AP

The Chargers have released offensive tackle Kevin Haslam, the club said Tuesday.

Promoted from the practice squad on November 24, Haslam started three games at left tackle for San Diego down the stretch of the 2012 regular season.

The 6-foot-5, 310-pound Haslam played collegiately at Rutgers. The Jaguars signed him as an undrafted free agent in 2010. The Chargers added him to their practice squad in September after he was released by Oakland.

The Chargers have now let go of two of their starters at left tackle from a season ago. Previously, they parted ways with Jared Gaither. The club added ex-Eagles tackle King Dunlap in free agency and has done its due diligence on other veteran left tackles, including Max Starks and Bryant McKinnie. Starks remains unsigned, while McKinnie re-signed with Baltimore.

AP

One of the burning questions about the Houston Texans for the 2013 season is whether they will be able to break through and advance beyond the second round of the playoffs after losing in that round in each of the last two years.

If they do, it’s likely that rookie wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins will help them get over the hump. Hopkins was the team’s first-round pick last month and it’s hoped that he’ll make their passing game more dangerous by forcing defenses to pay less attention to Andre Johnson. Hopkins will be a guest on Tuesday’s Pro Football Talk on NBC Sports Network and we’ll find out how ready he thinks he is for that kind of contribution.

Burning questions for the rest of the teams in the AFC South will also be on the docket as Erik Kuselias, Mike Florio and Ross Tucker discuss the Colts, Titans and Jaguars. Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area will also be on hand to talk about the NFL’s decision to award Super Bowl L to the 49ers’ forthcoming stadium in Santa Clara.

It all gets started at 5 p.m. ET on NBC Sports Network.

AP

Any time football players get on the field, there’s a chance of injury.

That includes offseason workouts and OTAs, although aches and pains from May rarely wind up meaning that much. The exceptions are the serious injuries, of course, and injuries for players who have histories that make any physical setback reason for concern.

Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray would fall into the latter group. He’s missed nine games over his first two seasons, including six last season with a foot problem, and had his fair share of injuries in college as well. That backdrop made word that Murray missed the first day of Cowboys OTAs with what coach Jason Garrett described as a “hamstring tweak” jump out more than it might for another player.

Garrett said, via the team’s website, that the team was taking a conservative approach with Murray because there’s no sense in doing anything else in May. He’s right, although that won’t do much to quiet concerns about the Cowboys offense should Murray wind up missing any significant time. Philip Tanner, Lance Dunbar and rookie Joseph Randle represent a big drop from Murray and the team will need a more effective running game to snap their playoff drought in 2013.

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Any practices happening this time of year are non-contact.

But that doesn’t mean they’re safe.

According to Jason Wilde of ESPNWisconsin.com, Packers offensive lineman J.C. Tretter suffered a broken ankle, and is expected to miss six months.

Tretter apparently suffered the injury during a fumble recovery drill during OTAs Monday.

Tretter, a fourth-round pick from Cornell, was working at right tackle for a group looking for answers on that side of the line.