Chiefs, Jaguars, Panthers, Raiders, Eagles vying for first overall pick

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The Panthers are playing a lot of big games down the stretch. At least if you’re an NFL draft junkie.

While we spend most of our time in December dissecting the teams in the playoff hunt, we’ll also spend some of our time looking at the teams racing to the bottom of the standings, teams vying for the first overall pick in the 2013 draft. And that pick is almost certain to come down to the 2-10 Chiefs, the 2-10 Jaguars, the 3-9 Panthers, the 3-9 Raiders or the 3-9 Eagles.

The Panthers, in particular, have been a factor in the race for the first pick. By beating Philadelphia last week and then losing to Kansas City this week, Carolina tightened things up considerably in the Top 5 of the draft order (which is to say the Bottom 5 of the standings). The Panthers also have a game remaining against the Raiders, and the Raiders also have a game coming up against the Chiefs, so those are the biggest games to watch if you want to see how the top of the draft order will look in April.

In recent years, the first overall pick has almost always been a quarterback. The last four first picks were quarterbacks, and going back to Peyton Manning in 1998, 12 of the last 15 first overall picks have been quarterbacks. But that could change this year for a couple of reasons.

The first reason is that if Carolina ends up with the first pick, the Panthers would definitely not take a quarterback, with 2011 first overall pick Cam Newton already in place. Carolina could trade the first overall pick to a quarterback-needy team, but that leads to the other reason a quarterback probably won’t go first overall.

The other reason is that — even though the Chiefs, Jaguars, Raiders and Eagles all might consider drafting a quarterback — this year’s draft doesn’t appear to have a quarterback worthy of the first overall pick. The two quarterbacks most often mentioned as the best prospects for 2013, West Virginia’s Geno Smith and USC’s Matt Barkley, both saw their stock decline with inconsistent play down the stretch this season.

The players who are more often mentioned as potential first overall picks include Notre Dame inside linebacker Manti Te’o, Georgia outside linebacker Jarvis Jones, Alabama guard Chance Warmack, Utah defensive tackle Star Lotulelei, Texas A&M defensive end Damontre Moore, Texas A&M left tackle Luke Joeckel and LSU defensive end Barkevious Mingo. For fans in Kansas City, Jacksonville, Carolina, Oakland and Philadelphia, dreaming about one of those players in the home team’s colors can brighten up an otherwise dreary December.

64 responses to “Chiefs, Jaguars, Panthers, Raiders, Eagles vying for first overall pick

  1. I don’t think any teams fans are exactly dreaming about any of those players.

    What they are probably doing is hating their teams even more for being terrible one year too late.

  2. I doubt we’ll ever see an OG selected first overall. So despite being an excellent talent, please scratch Warmack from your list of potential #1 overalls.

  3. If Bill Parcells was in charge of the team with the #1 pick’s draft, he’d definitely be taking the guard.

  4. Just lose, baby.

    Maybe Reggie McKenzie learned from this debaclous season that you, uh duh, need an edge rusher to compete in today’s NFL.

    Oh, and bring back Hue. I think when Reggie’s “gut” told him to fire Hue and hire Dennis Allen it may have been the 35 slim jims in there talking instead.

  5. As an Eagles fan, I can’t wait for this train wreck season to be over. I want Joeckel more than any other player in the draft. Especially a quarterback. Neither one of these quarterbacks are going to be any good, and some of our offensive linemen wouldn’t start in the Canadian football league.

  6. Geno Smith is worthy of being the first overall pick in this draft. He’s a franchise quarterback.

    A lot of folks are down on Tyler Wilson with the Razors awful year, but I still really like him. I like him a lot more than Barkley.

  7. Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert were top ten selections. Christian Ponder was top fifteen.

    There isn’t a team in the NFL that needs a quarterback worse than the Jets. If I were them I’d give McElroy a shot down the stretch. We know what Tebow and Sanchez bring to the table.

    No one’s talking about it, but losing Kevin Kolb completely murdered the Cardinals season. He was quietly playing pretty good football. Still, the Cards made a big mistake in cutting Rich Bartel. He’d of been successful unlike Lindley and Skelton. And he’ll play for free!

  8. If for some reason Carolina winds up with the #1 overall pick again, and/or has the option to draft Manti Te’o with their pick, I’d still bet they’d look to trade down. They have Luke Kuechly to anchor their linebackers, so unless they want to take a defensive lineman to add depth, I’d expect them to put their pick up for sale.

    Now I’d run through the streets of Baltimore screaming like a little girl if the Ravens did nab Te’o, but I wouldn’t want them to mortgage their future for him either since they’d likely have to trade all the way up to the top five spots to get him.

  9. It’ll be strange seeing a non-QB drafted first(12 of the last 15 drafts have had a QB #1 overall) but that seems likely to happen at this point.

    I think basically everyone should get a left tackle because they’re so hard to find. Even Philly with Jason Peters could use all the O-Linemen they can get.

  10. If I was the GM of the team that picks #1, I would trade my pick for more picks. All these teams need more than just a franchise QB and need talent on their rosters.

  11. Barkley will still go #1 overall as long as it’s not the Panthers or Jaguars drafting first (yes, I do think the Jags will stick it out with Gabbert and/or Henne).

    I think Barkley still goes to KC and Geno goes to Philly.

  12. It wouldn’t matter for the jags if they had the 1st overall ….

    Gene Smith would pick some an amputee.

  13. If any of those teams not named the Panthers get the 1st pick, the team will pick a QB. We go through this every year, and every year it plays out the same way. We didn’t think Stafford was worthy of #1 because of his injury problems. He goes #1. We didn’t think Cam was worthy of #1 because of his off the field problems. He goes #1. We didn’t think Bradford was worthy of #1 because of his injury problems.

    Teams WILL reach for a QB if they are picking #1. Geno Smith will be the one they reach on this year. For better or worse.

  14. jonkybon says: Dec 3, 2012 11:05 AM

    I doubt we’ll ever see an OG selected first overall. So despite being an excellent talent, please scratch Warmack from your list of potential #1 overalls.

    ***************

    You’re not supposed to draft a punter in the 3rd either. Give Jean Smiff and the jags a chance and you might just see a OG first overall.

  15. Pass rusher or LT is the only way to go at the top this year. You win by being able to pass and stop the pass. Teo would be a great pick up in the 1970’s, but a MLB doesn’t have enough impact to go #1. And unless that Guard can play LT, you can forget about him too. Not a good year to be drafting top 5.

  16. maybe Carolina can actually find a qb that actually care’s about winning games instead of making himself look good. or a qb that can beat good teams instead of just winning all his games against the league’s worst teams.

  17. I really hope the eagles end up with the top pick so they can draft that Lt out of texas a&m or that beast of a linebacker outta notre dame and find a saftey or two in the 2nd and 3rd. Maybe with a corner who can cover.

  18. in years pass paying 6o=0 million plus dollars you were almost forced to take a qb. with the current rookie cap that burden is no longer there. With that said some positions are easier to fill than others. Qb is still the #1 skill position. We all know the rest, DE, LT, CB, WR,
    Raiders look like a top 5 pick. I think Reggie is going to build this team from the inside out…..it’s all about the d-line, and o-line. If we do cut Seymour, and Kelly, then lotulelei from utah is the logical pick., however i think we need the LT from a&m more, where we could slide velhdeer to the right side. with that said the rt from a&m is solid as well….but for me it’s way to early. There are guys on this list that will fall, and guys that are not on this list that will be up there. wait until the combine.

  19. If you were a quarterback needy team last year and didn’t make the move to get one, you deserve to be a quarterback needy team. I feel for the teams fan base that drafts Barkley or Geno early.

  20. The Panthers have to go DT. Forget the whining from the media, Newton is the least of our problems. Need help at guard too. Newton will finish the year leading the team in rushing, and its not because he’s a ball hog. There are just no holes.

  21. This isn’t a race, Oakland will easily have the first pick, by far the worst team in football. Thanks Reggie!

  22. Without a clear #1 Pick, that might not necessarily be a good thing.

    The QB class looks nothing like last year. Even the RB class isn’t that hot. Some solid LBs/DEs available though.

    This may be a good year to move back and stock a few extra picks.

  23. Is Teo really in the discussion for the first pick? The guy has 5.5 tackle for loss and is #59 in tackles. It is one thing to win the Hypesman, another to be the first pick in the draft. He is basically the Tim Tebow of Linebackers.

  24. The Panthers desperately need to land Luke Joeckel. Jordan Gross is a decerpit old has-been who should have been put out to pasture 3 years ago. He is THE poster child for making Pro Bowls on reputation alone.

  25. “rdw27103 says:
    Dec 3, 2012 12:58 PM
    Is Teo really in the discussion for the first pick”

    Realistically, no. Geno Smith is likely to be the first pick. He had a much better year than Barkley and has a better NFL skill set. I think Teo is more likely to go in the 5-12 range like Willis, Hawk and Kuechly.

  26. wtfpft says:
    Dec 3, 2012 12:29 PM
    This isn’t a race, Oakland will easily have the first pick, by far the worst team in football. Thanks Reggie!
    _____
    Don’t be so sure. You have the Panthers coming up in a couple weeks. After yesterday’s debacle in KC, I’m convinced we can lose to anybody – even ‘Bama and Notre Dame.

  27. jonkybon says: Dec 3, 2012 11:05 AM

    I doubt we’ll ever see an OG selected first overall. So despite being an excellent talent, please scratch Warmack from your list of potential #1 overalls.
    _______
    Spot on. I hate Alabama (War Damn Eagle), but Warmack may be the best guard we’ve seen enter the NFL in a long time. Regardless, guards don’t go in the top ten picks (definitely not No. 1 overall), especially as the NFL grows increasingly dependent on speedy receivers and deep passing quarterbacks.

  28. If the chiefs end up at 1 I want jarvis Jones. That can allow us to trade hali for picks and address the qb position later in the 1st or top of the 2nd.

  29. I pray for the Raiders not to get the number one slot, although they are playing like they want it. The number one slot is almost impossible to trade out of. Al Davis never traded out of any first round picks, I hope this will change with new management, because look at what this got us. Russell, McClain, McAnkle and my favorite, Todd doped up Marinovich. Not to mention so many others. The top pick is a curse, I pray the Raiders do not get it. Trade down Reggie, get us some players, get us a team.

  30. This is NOT a weak draft. Its just not a draft with 5-10 big name players rounding out the top 10. This is going to be a draft where the teams who usually draft well are going to make out big time.
    This draft provides a whole bunch of players that will challenge the current NFL players for a starting position. A whole bunch of hidden gems at the Wide Receiver, DE, DT and Cornerback positions. Teams like the Bears, Patriots, 49ers and the Seahawks will benefit well this year.

  31. psilenttype says: Dec 3, 2012 11:47 AM

    Weak draft
    _______
    Not really. travishenrys kid put it well: “Not a good year to be drafting top 5”.

    Because media draft focus is always on the top 5/10/20 picks, it appears to be a lackluster group of kids. In reality, however, 2013 is a very deep and talented draft, the problem is that the drop-off between the top 20 picks and the remaining 233 is not as steep as it is in typical years. So, as travishenry put it, this is not a weak draft, just not a good year for a top pick.

    Mark Barron is a good example. “Overhyped” by an extraordinarily weak safety class in 2012, he was taken at number five overall. Don’t get me wrong, I’ve seen Barron play several times this year and he looks like he’ll be an impact player in the NFL for years to come. However, in 2013 safeties and defensive backs graded significantly better than Barron are projected to be taken in the second, third, and fourth round. That’s the difference between a shallow draft and a deep draft. Doesn’t mean the talent is any less in 2013 than 2012, just that the difference between the top-tier talent and the rest of the class isn’t as extreme.

  32. All those teams need a franchise QB. They have lots of other needs as well, but given the importance of QBs in the league, they need to start there. Then, build your lines.

  33. People saying their teams should trade down if in the top couple picks… the fact that there is no clear cut #1/2/3 at this point is going to make that really difficult. The reasons the Rams got so much from the Skins is because they wanted one player and one player only. There is no player worth trading UP for, which is why there wont be any teams trading DOWN from those first few picks.

  34. Raiders have to the top pick, hands down! I don’t see them winning another game this season with the mind set of a lot the guys in that lockerroom already on Christmas Vacation. They’ll lose to Carolina & KC placing them in the drivers seat garner the #1 pick, which Reggie McKenzie will likely trade down for more drafts later in the draft. And we all know Oakland can definitely use draft picks following the Carson Palmer trade debacle.

  35. Wherever they land I hope the Eagles use the pick for the nastiest D player available. They need someone to be the heart and soul this Defense has lacked since B-Dawk. I could hitch the wagon to the ND Linebacker, Im not too familiar with Jarvis. I know hes a pass rusher in a 3-4 type set, doesnt really match up well currently, but who knows what direction theyll go with a new coach.

    I also wouldnt be upset with the Guard at 3 or 4. With both tackles coming back, and the center, the Offense should be pretty solid as long as fumbles Mcfumbleson Bryce Brown gets his stuff together.

  36. Yep, not a very good draft this year. As an Eagles fan, I’m sure they will botch this somehow. I think best value would be to trade down and get more picks since there is no sure fire #1. Jarvis Jones is overrated, a #1 MLB or OG is a waste and definitely none of the QBs are worthy this year!

  37. us down here in panther country are both hating our team for continuing to be worthless and dreaming of star at the same time…oh and the honey badger in round 4

  38. First round pick? Can someone give me the facts on this ProFootballTalk comrades. In the 2007 NFL draft the Raiders had the Number one pick. The Raiders were trying to trade out of the pick, but I am sure it was because of a kings ransom. However, I screamed on several sites that it is a teams right not to choose once the clock expires, if the clock expires the pick goes to the next team, and then the pick comes back to the Raiders for the 2nd pick if that team picks. Am I right? Can you pass once, or multiple times? Reading the draft rules, it seems that you can pass multiple times. If true, why have so many teams just not selected if they were not happy with their draft position.

    Buy the way, we selected DumbMarcus Russell with that #1, still haunts me to this day.

  39. Eagles would jump at Joekel. Put him on the right side with Peters back, and you can slide Herrimans back to RG, where his is more natural. Kelce also coming back, and one of your weakest units is now a strength. I wouldn’t be talking superbowl, but with a team built around a strong o-line, Shady, and to a lesser extent Brown, they could be good, fast.

  40. I want us to draft Teo. We can give Gabbert one more year to develop because to smart Jag fans this was technically like his rookie year considering Jack DelRio was our head coach during Gabbers rookie year

  41. @panthers34 – Are you kidding?! Panthers O-Line is garbage. Cam has more rushing yards than J-Stew and D-Will because he has about 2 seconds to throw the ball and HAS to run. Silatolu and a freaking joke. Get your facts straight.

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