PFT’s Week 16 picks

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The proverbial pink champagne is on ice.

Yes, with a clean sweep in the three games on which we disagreed last weekend, I’ve now built a seven-game lead over MDS, with only 32 games to go.

The problem for MDS is that we probably won’t disagree on seven games in the final two weeks.  Even then, he needs to be right on all of them.

For Week 16, we disagree on three.  So I’ll lead by at least four and possibly by 10 by the time the fat man in the red suit breaks into my house, eats my cookies, and leaves behind a bunch of stuff for everyone but me.

For the week, I was 12-4 to a 9-7 from MDS.  On the year, I’m at 146-77-1, good for 65.1 percent.  MDS is 139-84-1, still at 62.0 percent.

Falcons at Lions

MDS’s take: Both of these teams have been severely inconsistent this season, with the Falcons consistently managing to pull out wins when they don’t play very well, and the Lions consistently managing to pull out losses when they play competitively. So after a week in which the Falcons blew out a good team and the Lions got blown out by a bad team, I’m picking both teams to revert to their inconsistent ways. Does this logic make sense? Maybe not, but I’m going to have to pick some upsets to catch Florio.  So what the heck?

MDS’s pick: Lions 21, Falcons 20.

Florio’s take:  It would be fitting for the Lions to close out a disappointing year with a pair of home wins over postseason contenders from Atlanta and Chicago.  It would be fitting, but after seeing the Lions lay an egg against the nine-eggs-in-a-row-laying Cardinals, it’s impossible for me to think the Lions can take down a Falcons team that put a goose egg on the Giants.

Florio’s pick:  Falcons 31, Lions 17.

Giants at Ravens

MDS’s take: Both of these teams once looked like locks to win their divisions and now look desperate. Former Giants coach Bill Parcells liked to say that in games like this, you go with the more desperate team. That’s the Giants, who probably need to win out to make the playoffs.

MDS’s pick: Giants 24, Ravens 13.

Florio’s take:  The Ravens are desperate for a win.  The Giants are more desperate for a win.  Even though Eli Manning’s Giants have lost to two teams that Peyton Manning’s Broncos played previously and beat, the third time needs to be a charm, or Eli will have no chance to chase his third ring.

Florio’s pick:  Giants 27, Ravens 20.

Raiders at Panthers

MDS’s take: A couple weeks ago this looked like it could be a game to determine the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. But the Panthers have won two in a row, and the Raiders won last week, and so now it looks merely like a game that could help shape the Top 10 of the draft. Which makes it an even less interesting game than it otherwise would have been.

MDS’s pick: Panthers 31, Raiders 10.

Florio’s take:  Ron Rivera is making it very hard for the next G.M. to hire a new coach.  It will keep getting harder.

Florio’s pick:  Panthers 31, Raiders 20.

Saints at Cowboys

MDS’s take: The Dallas secondary is going to struggle mightily against the Saints’ passing attack, but with the season on the line I see Tony Romo having a big game against the Saints’ defense.

MDS’s pick: Cowboys 34, Saints 31.

Florio’s take:  A loss to Dallas is a win for the Saints, since it makes it more likely that there won’t be a place with the Cowboys for Sean Payton.  Even though the Saints won big over the Bucs, the Cowboys are chasing a playoff berth no one thought they’d secure.

Florio’s pick:  Cowboys 30, Saints 24.

Titans at Packers

MDS’s take: Tennessee has actually played some reasonably good football in the five weeks since owner Bud Adams put the team on notice following a humiliating loss to the Bears: In those five weeks the Titans have blown out the Dolphins, ended the Jets’ playoff hopes and played a very close game against the playoff-bound Colts. But Green Bay in December is a tough place to play, and the Packers won’t have too much trouble putting the Titans away.

MDS’s pick: Packers 35, Titans 21.

Florio’s take:  Green Bay is reached for a No. 2 seed.  The Titans are reaching for a lower draft pick.  Advantage Packers.

Florio’s pick:  Packers 27, Titans 17.

Vikings at Texans

MDS’s take: It’s impressive that the Vikings are still playing meaningful games this deep in the season, but this is where it comes to an end.  The Texans will clinch home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs by spanking the Vikings, and the loss will severely damage the Vikings’ playoff hopes.

MDS’s pick: Texans 41, Vikings 20.

Florio’s take:  The Texans may not be able to stop Adrian Peterson, but they’ll likely come through in the most important statistical category — points scored versus points allowed.

Florio’s pick:  Texans 31, Vikings 20.

Patriots at Jaguars

MDS’s take: The Patriots can’t be feeling good about themselves after Sunday night’s loss to the 49ers. They’ll take it out on the Jaguars in the day’s biggest blowout.

MDS’s pick: Patriots 38, Jaguars 3.

Florio’s take:  Five years ago, these two teams squared off in the playoffs.  The closest the Jaguars ever get to returning comes from periodically losing to New England.

Florio’s pick:  Patriots 41, Jaguars 14.

Colts at Chiefs

MDS’s take: Let’s just stop and reflect for a moment on how important the quarterback position is in the NFL: In 2010, with Peyton Manning, the Colts were a playoff team. In 2011, with Curtis Painter, Dan Orlovsky and Kerry Collins, the Colts were the worst team in the league. In 2012, with Andrew Luck, the Colts will beat the Chiefs on Sunday and clinch a playoff berth.

MDS’s pick: Colts 28, Chiefs 14.

Florio’s take:  The team that lucked into the top pick in the 2012 draft faces the team that won’t have the same good fortune finding a quarterback with the first or second overall selection in 2013.

Florio’s pick:  Colts 24, Chiefs 13.

Bills at Dolphins

MDS’s take: Amazingly, the Dolphins are still in playoff contention, although they would need a lot of help in order to get there, even if they win out. They’ll at least take care of their end by winning on Sunday.

MDS’s pick: Dolphins 24, Bills 20.

Florio’s take:  The Dolphins are surprisingly still alive for the postseason.  The Bills unsurprisingly aren’t.  Edge to the home team and the team that still have something to play for, which in this case is the same team.

Florio’s pick:  Dolphins 20, Bills 17.

Redskins at Eagles

MDS’s take: The Redskins just need to win out and they win the NFC East. No way they get tripped up by the Eagles, who are just playing out the string. Who would have figured before the season that the Redskins would be playing for a division title while the Eagles would be long since eliminated from playoff contention?

MDS’s pick: Redskins 31, Eagles 10.

Florio’s take:  It’s likely the final home game for Eagles coach Andy Reid.  And Reid surely would love to spoil Washington’s chances to get to the postseason.  Of course, Reid also would have loved to have had the kind of year that would have made Sunday’s game not his final home game.

Florio’s pick:  Redskins 24, Eagles 14.

Bengals at Steelers

MDS’s take: The game of the day is in Pittsburgh, where these two teams will be fighting for the one open playoff spot remaining after the Colts take care of business. I like the Steelers to summon everything they have left and put themselves in prime position to clinch in Week 17.

MDS’s pick: Steelers 21, Bengals 20.

Florio’s take:  The Bengals are 0-9 in their last eight games against the Steelers and Ravens.  And the Steelers are celebrating the 40th anniversary of the Immaculate Reception.  And the Steelers desperately need a win in order to keep their playoff hopes alive.  This isn’t a game the Steelers lose.

Florio’s pick:  Steelers 23, Bengals 13.

Rams at Buccaneers

MDS’s take: I was surprised the extent to which the Bucs looked on Sunday like they’ve given up on the season. Greg Schiano and Jeff Fisher both have rebuilding jobs on their hands, but Fisher’s Rams appear to be closer to getting that job done than Schiano’s Bucs.

MDS’s pick: Rams 17, Buccaneers 9.

Florio’s take:  The Bucs play their final home game of the season while in a full-blown free fall.  Since it’s potentially cornerback Ronde Barber’s final home game of his career, look for the Bucs to find a way to turn things around against a Rams team that saw its unlikely postseason run slam to a halt in Week 15.

Florio’s pick:  Buccaneers 28, Rams 17.

Browns at Broncos

MDS’s take: The Broncos just need to beat two bad teams, the Browns and Chiefs, in order to ensure that if they rematch the Patriots in the playoffs, that game takes place in Denver. Peyton Manning and Co. will take care of business.

MDS’s pick: Broncos 28, Browns 10.

Florio’s take:  The Broncos are closing in on a bye.  The Browns are closing in on saying “bye” to their coach and G.M.

Florio’s pick:  Broncos 27, Browns 14.

Bears at Cardinals

MDS’s take: The Bears need to win out and get some help to make the playoffs. I’m not sure if they’ll get the help, but with only the Cardinals and Lions left on the schedule, they should win out.

MDS’s pick: Bears 27, Cardinals 9.

Florio’s take:  No one’s ass is getting crowned as a result of this one.

Florio’s pick:  Bears 20, Cardinals 10.

49ers at Seahawks

MDS’s take: The Sunday night game is a big one, matching the two teams that may be playing the best football in all of the NFL right now. On a neutral field I’d probably take the 49ers, but in Seattle I give the Seahawks the edge.

MDS’s pick: Seahawks 21, 49ers 17.

Florio’s take:  The “what’s your deal?” rivalry suddenly has become one of the best in the game, making the frosty relationship between the two coaches an afterthought.  The Seahawks could have, and should have, won the last time these teams met.  This time, the Seahawks are even better.

Florio’s pick:  Seahawks 20, 49ers 17.

Chargers at Jets

MDS’s take: Greg McElroy may get the loudest ovation at home that a Jets quarterback has received since Joe Namath. I don’t think McElroy is the long-term answer, but I do think he’ll play competently, and the Jets’ defense will play well, and Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow will stand together on the sideline awkwardly watching the McElroy-led Jets win a low-scoring game.

MDS’s pick: Jets 13, Chargers 10.

Florio’s take:  The McElroy era begins with a Bolt.  Or maybe a butt fumble.  There’s too much drama this week in the locker room for the Jets to come together and win.

Florio’s pick:  Chargers 17, Jets 10.

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The 49ers waived Brandon Carswell with an injury designation on Tuesday, the NFL disclosed in its transaction log.

The 24-year-old Carswell suffered an ACL tear last Wednesday, the same day he signed with the club.

Carswell, who played collegiately at Southern Cal, had a brief stint on the Raiders’ practice squad a season ago.

The 49ers now have 11 wide receivers on their roster, including Michael Crabtree, who figures to miss at least a portion of the 2013 campaign after tearing his Achilles in May.

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Fantasy football players continue to be fascinated with Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew. But when if comes to figuring out the most important contributors to the franchise, Jones-Drew must yield to his predecessor, Fred Taylor.

It’s Taylor, who retired at No. 15 on the all-time rushing list, who trumps Jones-Drew as the most accomplished running back in franchise history.

Joining Taylor on the team’s Mt. Rushmore are quarterback Mark Brunell, receiver Jimmy Smith, and coach Tom Coughlin.

PFT Planet replaced Coughlin with left tackle Tony Boselli.

See the Boselli-Coughlin debate and the outcome of the voting by watching the segment from Pro Football Talk on NBCSN.

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The Aaron Hernandez situation remains fluid and confusing.  Both SI.com and ABC now report that police are searching Hernandez’s North Attleboro home.

The investigation was sparked by the discovery of the body of a Hernandez “associate” in the vicinity of a car rented to Hernandez, roughly a mile from his residence.

According to ABC, a pair of Hernandez’s friends tried to leave the home during the search, but were stopped by police at the end of the driveway leading to the structure.  Per SI.com, both were taken away by police, but not handcuffed.

The Patriots, who don’t usually say much of anything, have remained true to form.

“I am aware of the reports, but I do not anticipate that we will be commenting publicly during an ongoing police investigation,” Patriots spokesman Stacey James said in a statement forward to PFT.

Hernandez repeatedly has been described as not a suspect, but it’s unusual to say the least that the home of someone who isn’t suspected of committing a crime would be searched — especially in light of the Constitutional protection against unreasonable police searches.

That’s the key fact here.  Even though there currently is no reason to believe Hernandez committed a crime, the authorities were able to persuade a judge that the house potentially contains something that would help find the killer.

AP

As MDS mentioned earlier in the hour, Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez finds himself in the middle of an investigation regarding the death of a man described as a Hernandez “associate.”

The situation, which is extremely fluid, already has spawned inconsistent accounts.  For example, SI reports that Hernandez has been questioned, while ABC reports that investigators plan to interview him.  Likewise, SI reports that police may seek to search Hernandez’s home; ABC reports that police are indeed seeking a search warrant.

Per ABC, Hernandez has been “uncooperative.”

Reporters in Boston have been buzzing all afternoon regarding the situation.  The team has not responded to a PFT email seeking comment, and folks close to Hernandez are saying nothing, given the gravity of the situation.

There’s still no evidence that Hernandez is or will be a suspect.  Given that the the body was found in the vicinity of a car that, per SI, was rented in Hernandez’s name, a level of stupidity on par with Jesse Pinkman would be necessary to result in Hernandez actually being involved.

Then again, even Jesse Pinkman would know that it’s a good idea to be cooperative with police when there’s no reason to not be.

AP

The Colts’ 2013 training camp practices will begin on Sunday, July 28, owner Jim Irsay said Tuesday on Twitter.

Colts camp will be held at Anderson University in Anderson, Indiana. Anderson is a little more than 40 miles northeast of Indianapolis.

Per the CBA between owners and players, the earliest the Colts’ veteran players can report to camp is Saturday, July 27, or 15 days before the Colts’ preseason opener against Buffalo on Monday, August 11. Rookies, injured players and quarterbacks are allowed to report sooner.

The Colts are holding training camp in Anderson for the fourth consecutive summer.

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Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez has reportedly been questioned in a homicide investigation, although he is not considered a suspect.

Sports Illustrated reports that Hernandez was questioned by police investigating a possible homicide in North Attleboro, Massachusetts. The report says police talked to Hernandez on Monday and may seek to search his home as well. But the report adds that “Hernandez is not believed to be a murder suspect.”

The Sun Chronicle, a local newspaper in North Attleboro, reports that a 27-year-old Boston man’s body was found on Monday afternoon and may have been there for more than a day. That report said police found a 2013 Chevrolet Suburban registered to Enterprise car rental, and that police believe the car is connected to the homicide. The Sports Illustrated report indicates that the car was rented in Hernandez’s name.

Hernandez, his agents and his lawyer have all declined to comment publicly on the case.

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When the annual NFL rookie symposium kicks off on Sunday, sexual orientation will be among the topics addressed.

Robert Gulliver, the NFL’s chief human resource officer, told ESPN that discussing issues of sexual orientation with incoming rookies will be a step toward the NFL’s goal of having a harassment-free work place.

The ESPN report says this will be the first time that sexual orientation has been addressed at the symposium, but that is not correct: At the 2006 symposium, openly gay ex-NFL player Esera Tuaolo spoke. Unfortunately, that speech included an ugly incident in which a player raised his hand and asked Tuaolo, “Is it OK to call you a fa–ot if you are a fa–ot?”

We would hope that there aren’t any morons like that in this year’s rookie crop. And that if there is anyone who has those views, the message at the rookie symposium will be simple: Discrimination and harassment against people based on their sexual orientation will not be tolerated in the NFL.

AP

The Titans have a plan for their final minicamp of the spring, but they don’t have a script.

During their final three days of work before vacation and then training camp, the Titans are working without a scripted set of plays in practice, which head coach Mike Munchak said was more for the benefit of his assistants as his players.

“That’s as good for the coaches as anybody, to make them have to think how to try to attack each other and not be able to pre-plan everything we are doing out here,” Munchak said, via Paul Kuharsky of ESPN.com. “Once we had everything installed, once we spent the first nine OTAs getting everything in and doing it at a teaching pace where we felt they had a good understanding, then to me this is the best thing we could do.

“You can’t tackle, this is as close as you get to playing real football, at least mentally. I just thought this would be a nice change for these couple days. Let it flow, let it happen and create some situations.”

That forced offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains and defensive coordinator Jerry Gray (unless assistant Gregg Williams was doing it) to work against each other, after establishing a rough plan for the day.

“Whatever you call, you call and the players have got to make their adjustments off of it,” Gray said before the practice started. “So we’re really going through a bunch of game-type situations: You’re in two minute, you’re in four minute, you’re in goal line, it’s first-and-10. All they are going to do [on offense] is tell us personnel. Then we are going to treat it as a game, . . .

“Not only does it help me, it helps Dowell, it helps the head coach get a chance to see what we like to call in certain situations, and the players do too. You can script and say hey, ‘I can always have the pen last and win.’ You’ve got to make the call from what you are looking at, what you’re thinking, what’s that going to do to you, because that’s how the game is.”

The Titans have spent aggressively this offseason, but that only adds to the pressure on Munchak and the rest of the staff. So perhaps it’s fitting and smart that they add a little on themselves in the offseason, before the consequences are real.

AP

Surgery on Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski’s back has concluded, a source told PFT’s Mike Florio on Tuesday.

It is believed the surgery, conducted Tuesday, was successful, the source told PFT.

At present, it’s not yet certain when Gronkowski — one of the game’s top all-around performers at his position — will again be ready to play. The Pro Bowl tight end was bothered by a forearm injury /infection late in the 2012 campaign and into this offseason before the back issue became a primary concern.

Gronkowski, 24, caught 55 passes for 790 yards and 11 touchdowns in just 11 regular-season games in 2012. Slightly more than one-in-five of his career regular-season catches have gone for touchdowns (38 TDs, 187 receptions).

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If we were putting individual plays on the Mt. Rushmores we’ve been putting together for each of the NFL’s 32 teams instead of faces, there’s little doubt that the Music City Miracle would make the cut for the Titans.

Frank Wycheck played a major role in that unforgettable play against the Bills in the playoffs, which is part of the reason why he made the 12 finalists for the Titans’ Mt. Rushmore that will be revealed on Tuesday’s edition of Pro Football Talk on NBCSN. We’ll ask Wycheck which of his teammates are worthy of being one of the franchise’s faces as well as what Oilers from the old school have stood the test of time.

The team that replaced the Oilers in Houston will also have their Mt. Rushmore carved on Tuesday. Erik Kuselias, Mike Florio and the rest of the crew will give you the details for the Texans and cover the biggest news from around the league.

It all gets underway at 5 p.m. ET.

AP

The Titans need better offensive line play next season if they are going to improve on their results from 2012, but they will have to wait until training camp to see how their projected starters look as a unit.

Jim Wyatt of the Tennessean reports that coach Mike Munchak said at Tuesday’s opening of minicamp that left tackle Michael Roos, right tackle David Stewart and left guard Andy Levitre will all be limited to individual work during the three-day session that ends Tennessee’s offseason work. That leaves center Fernando Velasco and rookie right guard Chance Warmack as the only expected starters doing team drills with the offense.

Levitre hasn’t done any team work since signing with the Titans as a free agent, although everyone expects him to be ready for a full workload when camp gets underway. The same is true of Stewart, who broke his leg late last season, and Roos, who is out because of a back issue.

If they all meet that expectation, the Titans will be breathing easier. Anything less than that would be a troubling start for a team trying to rebound.

AP

After coming back from a torn Achilles in college, Browns sixth-rounder Jamoris Slaughter isn’t just content to make the roster.

He’s thinking about a starting job.

Slaughter didn’t participate in OTAs or minicamp, but said he’ll be ready when training camp begins.

“I’m cleared at this point to do everything, so I’ve been feeling really good,” Slaughter said, via Mary Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. “I’ve been working out hard with the team, just waiting to get back for training camp.”

Slaughter suffered the injury early last season for Notre Dame, and most of his work was on a stationary bike during spring workouts.

But he thinks he can compete with Tashaun Gipson for the starting free safety job.

“Definitely,” he said. “It’s one thing I think about every day is getting that starting position. I know it’s a process. It doesn’t happen overnight. As long I keep taking the right steps and staying positive, I think it will happen. . . .

“I’m steaming to get out there on the field, just having to watch OTAs, and minicamp,” he said. “I’ve been getting a lot of mental reps. On that side, it’s helped me out a lot, mentally just learning the playbook and watching the guys and seeing the things they do good and bad and learn from that. I know when I step on the field and get the rust off I’ll be right back.”

Gipson started three games last year, but Slaughter’s biggest obstacle might be his own condition. Confidence is one thing, but having realistic expectations when coming back from such an injury is key.

AP

The Falcons surely hope to avoid being called “dumb” by Matt Ryan’s agents next year.  Of course, if being dumb means winning the Super Bowl, the Falcons would gladly wear the dunce cap.

For now, the posture between Ryan and the team that made him the third overall pick in the 2008 draft is identical to last year’s contract standoff between the Ravens and Joe Flacco.  Ryan has a year left on his deal, both sides want to extend the contract, but an agreement has not been reached.

For now, Ryan bears the risk of injury and ineffectiveness.  If Ryan makes it through 2013 unscathed, the Falcons will have to choose between giving him market value, using the non-exclusive franchise tag (which exposes him to being pilfered by another team in exchange for two first-round picks), or the exclusive version of the tag (which could cost nearly $20 million for 2014 and unlock a year-to-year formula that would put the Falcons well north of $70 million for three years).

Per a source with knowledge of the situation, casual talks currently are occurring, with an expectation that things will heat up after the July 4 holiday.

Ryan has a $12 million cap number for 2013.  A long-term deal often drops a player’s cap number, but if Ryan is going to be paid at or near the top of the market (i.e., somewhere between $16 million and $20 million per year), it’s unlikely that the cap number will be any lower than $12 million in 2013.  Which means that a long-term deal for Ryan likely won’t create additional cap space for a potential contract with Richard Seymour.

The real question is whether Ryan (a CAA client) wants to be paid like Drew Brees (a CAA client) or Tony Romo (a CAA client) or somewhere in between.  Brees is getting $20 million per year.  Romo’s deal, as a practical matter, is worth $16.375 million over four years or $15.9 million over five.

Looming in the background is Matthew Stafford (another CAA client), whose cap number already is above $20 million.

As more and more franchise quarterbacks become the highest-paid player on their respective franchises, the questions constantly will be:  (1) how much is enough?; and (2) how much needs to be left behind to have a competitive team?

That’s why Ryan needs to ask himself, along with whether he’s willing to roll the dice and walk away from whatever the Falcons put on the table now, in the hopes of getting them over a barrel later.

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The idiots who thought it would be a good idea to make fun of Steve Gleason’s ALS paid for their lack of judgement and humor with their jobs.

But Gleason himself has taken the high road, accepting the apologies of the idiots in question, calling their contrition “genuine.”

Gleason posted that message on his Facebook page, responding with the kind of grace not everyone could muster (including yours truly).

“Regarding the DJ skit in Atlanta yesterday. I would like to thank the public for their support,” he wrote, with his eyes, since he can’t use his hands because of the disease. “’Defend Team Gleason’ now has been officially redefined. Additionally, the DJs have provided genuine apology. Received and accepted. We have all made mistakes in this life. How we learn from our mistakes is the measure of who we are.

“I think everyone can learn from this event. Its clear to me that, on a national & global scale, ALS is not understood, which is part of why its under funded and largely ignored. In the past 36 hours lots of people have been talking. Lets talk about this… There are zero treatments for ALS. If you take any action as a result of this event, I prefer it to be action to end ALS. See what we are doing to change that @ teamgleason.org. SG”

Gleason’s work on behalf of others with the disease has been remarkable and uplifting. But his forgiveness might be as impressive, and an example for each of us.

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During the 2012 season, Giants running backs coach Jerald Ingram hammered rookie running back David Wilson for not being a complete running back, with a particular emphasis on the need for Wilson to become a better pass blocker if he wanted to become a major part of the team’s running game.

Wilson did see more time in the final weeks of the regular season and Ahmad Bradshaw’s departure means that he’s in line for a lot of playing time in his second season. Ingram said that Wilson has “grown” during the offseason in terms of his understanding of the offense, including the vital role of keeping Eli Manning from being planted in the turf.

“There are some goals that he has to accomplish for us,” Ingram said, via Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPNNewYork.com. “He’s definitely on a better track than he was a year ago in understanding our protections and doing those kinds of things. I think we’ll take advantage of his natural ability as much as we can.”

Andre Brown is on hand to provide balance, Ingram referred to the tandem as a “thunder and lightning-type situation,” but Wilson’s playmaking ability will be tough to take off the field if he proves competent as a blocker. Ingram notes that you can’t tell much about blocking until everyone’s in pads, which means August will bring more of an idea of whether Wilson’s reached that level.