Comments on: Russ Brandon bringing “Moneyball” to Bills

By: Sometimes Interesting

Sometimes Interesting — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 23:49:30 +0000

Moneyball made for a great story but it doesn’t really work. How many championships have the A’s won?

It helps you find decent players at bargains, but not superstars. Superstars are what you need to win in the NFL – not bargains. If the NFL played over 100 games a year, sure you could roll the dice and play the averages. I don’t see how that works in the NFL though.

By: richc111

richc111 — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 22:28:14 +0000

oh also I mind it interesting that their first visits for coaches are in Arizona with a bunch of guys they have worked with before. I am not sure if their analytic s show that the Bills have been picking off the Pittsburgh tree for over a decade. Donahue, Malarkey, Gailey. so if they were to hire one of the Arizona coaches are we to believe it was a process of analytical approach or more of hey I worked with this guy before, were friends approach. Well let’s see. Last note last time we hired a coach all we heard was that money was no object and that we would get a top flight coach. What we got was Gailey who was about to lose his job at a middle of the road college team. So we have heard this all before, the difference is now a new guy is saying it and he is a salesman so he don’t realize that we have heard all of this before, just packaged a different way.

By: richc111

richc111 — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 22:21:55 +0000

What this is, is what you get when you have a marketing guy running things. I am sure Russ has had Wilson’s ear for years and presented this grand scene to turn things around and being so old fashion and just so old he fell for it. Marketing guys are basically the best salesman. that is how they go there. To problem here is they will be measured on the field, not in an office with fancy charts. I am worried we are set up for a long test run. They are already talking about grooming people to replace people. I bet they will have 5 years to fail, so that might mean the streak without playoff could come to almost 20 years before this experiment runs it course.

By: jimjames2

jimjames2 — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 21:20:13 +0000

If you guys no so much about what the bills should do maybe you should be running a football team. I bet a few of you are living check to check.

By: jimjames2

jimjames2 — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 21:15:44 +0000

I love what the bills are going to do. What they have been doing has worked right? Um no. Did they say they are hiring the wiz? No. They are keeping everything on the table and they should because we are not in the position to not look at every option. If the team makes you that angry don’t support them and if your not a fan why does this even spark an interest with you. I’m along for the ride for life. Go Bills.

By: headyesq

headyesq — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 18:44:44 +0000

This reads to me as:

“We are going to be even cheaper and have even more of collection of throw aways from other teams.”

Are any other teams relying on this in the NFL or is the front office saying we aren’t going to spend any money on high value free agents in buzz words and catchy concepts?

By: eezyxyz

eezyxyz — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 16:52:03 +0000

“Taking a closer look at the numbers might prevent the Bills from making an emotional “I know it when I see it” mistake like paying quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick during a 4-2 start in 2011, and realizing later their eyeballs and instincts cost them millions of dollars and cap space.”

You got this completely backwards. Fitzpatrick got that contract BECAUSE of the numbers: in those 6 starts at the beginning of 2011 he had 12 TDs, 6 INTs, completed 67% of his passes and had a rating of 95. Going by the numbers is what got the Bills into trouble … a more instinctive “know it when I see it” approach would have told them that Fitzpatrick was in no way, shape or form a “franchise” QB. This is actually a classic case of the numbers deceiving a team into thinking they’re smarter than other teams when they’re not (few other teams prior to 2011 had considered Fitz anything other than a useful backup/journeyman type QB)

By: kanemoney

kanemoney — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 15:57:02 +0000

“Moneyball” is such a buzz word. That’s like saying ‘synergy’ in the business world.

Also, if that is his strategy, why would he so openly reveal it? Doesn’t that remove a huge amount of trade leverage? The idea of Moneyball was that other teams undervalued talent (by focusing on the wrong metrics).

So when the Bills call to inquire about a player, the other GM must be thinking “their analytics say this guy is a great price:quality. The last thing I should do is trade him.”

By: pksullivanmph

pksullivanmph — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 15:51:02 +0000

I rest my case. If Doug Whaley is the guy have him take over now!!!!!! We see where feeliand see has gotten us. Brandon can show us he really is ready to change. @footballady52 🏉

By: 1967forever

1967forever — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 15:44:48 +0000

To be more accurate, “moneyball” means looking for inefficiencies in the market.

By: pondbridge

pondbridge — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 15:39:08 +0000

Isn’t this what Belichick has been doing for more than a decade at NE with his ‘value’ emphasis? You’re ten years late, Buffalo.

By: robertjamis

robertjamis — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 15:22:00 +0000

1)they would be looking for market “inefficiencies,” i.e. undervalued assets that the market doesn’t reward properly.

2) A bad franchise like Buffalo is the ideal opportunity to see how effective a Moneyball style approach would be in the NFL. I’m guessing it would be less focused on finding undervalued players and more focused on contract strategy, draft strategy, etc. It’s neat, but implementing a superior organizational philosophy in the “what have you done for me lately?” cap era may be difficult, especially when coaches with any sort of sustained success move on rather frequently.

By: gochargersgo

gochargersgo — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 15:16:27 +0000

Fact: Buffalo is annually amongst the sunniest cities on the east coast. Try getting yours straight before making foundationless statements.

By: trollhammer20

trollhammer20 — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 15:00:33 +0000

There is no substitution for bringing players in and evaluating them firsthand to actually see if they can do what you want them to do. Go and take a look at the massive roster turnover the Seahawks went through in their first two years with Carroll and Schneider running the show.

Of course, that takes money in the form of having to fly in players and try them out, but Paul Allen has never been afraid to spend a buck or three. You want a computer to do the job for you, that’s your call, but there’s no substitution for human evaluation when it comes to football.

By: mdac1012

mdac1012 — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 14:48:48 +0000

Last I looked, the Athletics have never even won a playoff series, let alone a championship during the Moneyball Era.

Isn’t trying to find players that can contribute to your team, that don’t cost you a lot of money, the goal of every GM? Did the Colts use advanced statistics to determine that Andrew Luck was going to be good? Or the skins with RGIII? Hell, drafting a Tom Brady in the 7th round is a one in a million. There are no stats that can determine a guy is going to turn into that.

By: thechronicjoker

thechronicjoker — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 14:47:07 +0000

At least your not the Jets.

By: eatitfanboy

eatitfanboy — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 14:44:47 +0000

I think it’s funny that in 2013 people still think using measurables to determine an athlete’s actual production on the field is nothing more than a “cute idea”.

By: tdk24

tdk24 — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 14:37:22 +0000

Sounds like throwing in the towel. What i read is, hey, we can’t compete, so we’ll make sure that every aspect of our operation is run as cheap as possible.

By: patriotsdefense

patriotsdefense — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 14:30:25 +0000

Moneyball won’t work in a league with a salary cap/salary floor. Also, they already blew the budget just one offseason ago.

Maybe the Bills should just focus on paying a real coaching staff real salaries. Other than that, they already had the Moneyball QB and then they gave him $4o million. And guess what? He stinks. They need a QB then maybe be can be respectable.

By: fishtales10

fishtales10 — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 14:19:22 +0000

The Bills should be giving as much as Bill Cowher wants and get him for a coach.

By: johnster67

johnster67 — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 14:11:30 +0000

Isn’t that basically what the Cowboys did when they ruled the NFL? Tex Schram and Gil Brandt had the most elaborate computer system in the NFL just for scouting. Thats how they found guys like Harvey Martin (ETSU) and Cliff Harris (Ouachita Baptist University).

By: dtr3e

dtr3e — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 13:57:45 +0000

If Nix is using his eye balls to analyze talent, then what the hell is he seeing??

By: hardate

hardate — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 13:56:25 +0000

Jags did that this year…worked out real well.

By: howiefeltersnatch

howiefeltersnatch — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 13:51:48 +0000

You see how many championships Moneyball won for the Athletics.

By: klutch14u

klutch14u — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 13:50:36 +0000

I guess I didn’t even realize Brad Pitt was looking for work

By: ajb3313

ajb3313 — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 13:48:52 +0000

I’m more alarmed that every team in the league doesn’t already employ an analytics department of some sort. Moneyball stuff aside, it just seems logical.

By: jbl429

jbl429 — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 13:48:48 +0000

Any team which has to announce this is desperate. And this isn’t baseball where it’s a one on one matchup at the plate. There’s 22 moving parts and many of them don’t have meaningful stats. Of course there’s ways to quantify it, but I don’t see Bill James in buffalo.

By: britishraven

britishraven — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 13:48:05 +0000

Translation:

We want to spend as little money as possible to remain at 6-10

By: pastabelly

pastabelly — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 13:41:47 +0000

It’s not really moneyball that wins in football. It’s not overpaying players and investing in a great quarterback and defense that wins. Overpaying Fitzpatrick had nothing to do with analytics. It was just stupid.

By: 49erstim

49erstim — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 13:39:39 +0000

In the same way that you cannot JUST use instincts, you cannot JUST use numbers. Sports rely on emotions almost as much as skill and you cannot quantify emotions. You could definitely use analytics on the business side, but on the football side your greatest tool is common sense.