Matt Barkley may not have hurt his draft stock by staying in school

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It’s been widely stated that former USC quarterback Matt Barkley ended up hurting his draft stock by eschewing last year’s NFL draft and returning for a senior season in which the Trojans were the most disappointing team in college football. But while Barkley’s senior season was a disappointment, that doesn’t mean his draft stock dropped.

As Mike Mayock noted on a conference call today, just because fans and media members were discussing Barkley as a likely Top 10 pick when he announced in January of 2012 that he would return to USC, that doesn’t mean he really would have been a Top 10 pick in the 2012 NFL draft.

“The reality is, once the 32 NFL teams start picking you apart, at some point you’re going to settle where you belong anyway based on your skill set and your performances,” Mayock said. “I didn’t think a year ago Barkley was going to be the No. 1 pick or a Top 5 pick or a Top 10 pick. I didn’t see that.”

A year later, there’s talk that Barkley may have played himself all the way out of the first round. But Mayock doesn’t see it that way, either.

“Things ultimately settle,” Mayock said. “I think Barkley is still going to go somewhere in the first round, probably in the bottom third. I’m not sure where yet, but I think it’s probably some team trading up from the top of the second to the bottom of the first to get him.”

It’s entirely possible that the bottom of the first round is where Barkley would have gone last year, too.

36 responses to “Matt Barkley may not have hurt his draft stock by staying in school

  1. The Browns drafted Weeden, who has one foot in retirement already, at 22. I’m sure they would have rather spent that pick on Barkley, if he made it past 8, where the Dolphins took Tannehill.

  2. Regarding the draft I see alot more Mayock on this site and less McShay and Kiper. I like that.

  3. Picking apart?Jabustuss, Rolando, Leaf, Sanchize and any other draft busts will think otherwise. Its all a crapshoot driven by hype, the unknown etc. A group of so-called experts may get it wrong more than you or i picking some guy randomly. Its all pure luck on the probability spectrum.

  4. even if you accept that argument – that he is going to be drafted about where he would last year – it means he gave up a rather big pct of his earning power given the short careers of NFL players.

  5. Not buying that one bit.

    You’re telling me that a season that saw his yards TDs and wins drop and interceptions increase didn’t have an impact? Regressing when you should be improving didn’t have an impact. C’mon man.

  6. Things ultimately settle,” Mayock said. “I think Barkley is still going to go somewhere in the first round, probably in the bottom third. I’m not sure where yet, but I think it’s probably some team trading up from the top of the second to the bottom of the first to get him.”

    Way to cover your bases

  7. Thanks to God he didn’t come out last year. The browns would be stuck with him after picking him at 3 instead of T-Rich.

  8. “The Browns drafted Weeden, who has one foot in retirement already, at 22. I’m sure they would have rather spent that pick on Barkley, if he made it past 8, where the Dolphins took Tannehill.”
    ________________________

    What, haven’t we endured enough pain the last 13 years?

  9. I’m calling BS on that one. He would have been one of the top 3 QB’s taken which would have put him in the top 10. Wonder where Mayock had him going last year before he decided to stay. Sounds like he is trying to excuse where he had him going last year by saying it would have changed.

  10. Regardless of where he’s taken, anyone else think Landry Jones will turn out to be the best qb taken in this draft? Thumbs up for yes, down for no.

  11. Barkley would have been drafted at #8 by the Dolphins if he had entered in the 2012 NFL Draft. I’m sure Barkley would have been grabbed before Weeden and Tannehill. Everything he did was much better than both of those QB’s. This year, he could go as low as #8 again to the Bills.

    So between this year and last, It’s almost identical.

  12. His stock indeed droppped. There’s no ifs, ands, or buts about it.

    If he stayed in school to get a degree than it was worth it and will increase his value in my eyes.

    If he stayed in school to win a National Championship then that would be dumb because a Division I football championship is not decided on the field. Nobody even remembers or really even cares about a College football champion when it’s all said and done and the smoke clears…it’s not proven on the field.

  13. This article makes perfect sense. If I’m a QB in college who would help me stick out more? Being grouped with RG3 and Luck? Or this year with Geno Smith and Ryan Nassib? I’m going to pick the latter.

  14. This article is ridiculous. His draft stock definitely went down. There were far more teams considering a rookie starting quarterback at this time last year than there are this year.

    There’s a chance there may only be 1 rookie starting quarterback this year whereas last year we had 3 rookie quarterbacks make the Playoffs and Pro-Bowl.

    Much less demand this year, regardless of everything else.

  15. I completely disagree. NFL teams often draft based on potential rather than actual production. The expectation was that Barkley would improve in his senior season, but he actually took a step backwards, suggesting that his potential probably isn’t very high. In other words, someone might have taken a chance on him last year thinking he would improve this year based on his potential, but that’s just not the case as he proved this year.

  16. You’re all right: you all know more about the draft than one of the most widely respected analysts whose job it is to know this stuff, and has been doing it for many, many years with success

  17. I actually agree with Mayock here. we all get hyped over whoever is being pushed on us or whose name is being bantied around in Heisman talk, but eventually, starting with the combine, NFL front offices will begin to sort these guys based on their own system, which includes SOME valuation of their college tape.

    not to say Barkley is a top tier NFL qb, but the coaching received, system ran, and talent of players around a qb will all be evaluated. I don’t think anyone will ever believe that Lane Kiffin is a qb guru.

  18. Mayock is right in his assessment, but failed to mention that many QB’s (some every year) routinely
    get over drafted.

  19. People are crazy to think he’d be a top 10 pick last year, when he’ll be lucky to get picked in the 1st 2 rounds of this amazingly weak QB class.

    He would have been exposed at last years combine if he wasn’t injured. He has a completely inferior arm compared to tannehill, and to a lesser extent Weeden also. All the college stats in the world wouldn’t have changed that.

    Basically anyone who gets exposed during the draft process, most likely would have been exposed any year they would have came out.

    He probably didn’t want to come out last year because he knew he had no chance against Luck or RG3, and thought he could go #1 overall this year. He probably believed all the hype lazy mock drafters were giving him a year in advance

  20. Of all the draft “experts” Mayock is by far the best.

    It’s not about being right all the time, it’s about how wrong one can be.

    Mayock hits more than he misses…

  21. hutch119 says: Apr 18, 2013 1:40 PM

    Not buying that one bit.

    You’re telling me that a season that saw his yards TDs and wins drop and interceptions increase didn’t have an impact? Regressing when you should be improving didn’t have an impact. C’mon man.
    ————————————
    I’m with you. Last year, he was the latest SoCal Golden Boy. It wasn’t a question of whether he was going in the Top Ten, it was where-and if the team he so favored with his august presence would be worthy of his USCness.

    Now, he’s just another mediocre QB in a year of mediocre QBs, combined with people FINALLY realizing that being Mr. Touchdown USA at USC rarely translates into NFL adequacy, let alone success. Palmer, Leinart, Cassel, Sanchez…

  22. He wanted to go in the top 5, maybe he even wanted to be 1 or 2 – but saw last year’s QB class and realized it wasn’t possible.

    Dolphins probably would have gone Barkley before Tan-man. I think they are thanking their lucky stars it didn’t happen that way, but to say anything other than that would be devoid of the reality of how much buzz Barkley had last year compared with this year.

  23. The guy would have been picked at 8 over Tannehill (not necessarily saying he SHOULD have been, but would). He coat himself millions upon millions of dollars just like Leinart by coming back senior year. Period.

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