West Virginia quarterback Geno Smith has been discussed at times as a possible first overall pick in the NFL draft. But with the draft now just four days away, another question arises: Could Smith drop all the way out of the first round?
That’s the consensus view of reporters in a mock draft compiled by Sam Farmer of the Los Angeles Times: Beat writers were asked to pick the players for the teams they cover, and Smith wasn’t picked in the first round at all. (Only one quarterback, Ryan Nassib of Syracuse to the Bills at No. 8, went in the first round.)
The problem Smith faces is that it’s tough to find a team that looks like a good match for him in the first round. The teams picking in the Top 10 don’t view Smith as a Top 10 value, and the teams outside the Top 10 don’t have a need for a quarterback.
The good news for Smith is that it only takes one team to make him a first-round pick: Even if most people think he’d be a reach in the Top 10 and that he wouldn’t fill a need for other teams in the first round, as long as one team sees him as a good value, that one team can make him a first-round pick. And if Smith is still sitting in the green room at Radio City Music Hall after 20 or more picks have been called, there’s a good chance that a team with one of the Top 10 picks in the second round will move back up into the late first round to draft Smith.
So Smith still appears likely to be a first-round draft pick. Even if it’s hard to figure out which team will pick him.