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PFT’s Week Six picks

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For the Week Six picks, I’m hoping MDS makes like MRS (Matthew Rutledge Schaub) and throws a pick six.

Making that wish somewhat unrealistic is the fact that we disagree on only three games.

Last week, he was 9-5 and I was 8-6.  His lead now stands at three games:  52-25 to 49-28.

If I’m right on all three, I’ll catch him.  And, yes, he and I may be the only two people in the world who actually care.

Giants at Bears

MDS’s take: Florio has done me a big favor with his stubborn insistence on continuing to pick the Giants, and I’m hoping he keeps going with the theory that the Giants are due for a win. (The Washington Generals are due to beat the Harlem Globetrotters any game now, too.) The Bears’ defense is good at forcing turnovers, and the Giants’ offense is good at turning the ball over. That’s a good combination for Chicago.

MDS’s pick: Bears 28, Giants 13.

Florio’s take:  The Giants are due to win.  The Bears are due to not lose.  The Bears are the better team.  The Bears are playing at home.  Advantage Bears.

Florio’s pick:  Bears 24, Giants 17.

Packers at Ravens

MDS’s take: Aaron Rodgers and Joe Flacco both signed enormous contracts this offseason, but only one of them is earning his money. The struggling Ravens’ offense will have a good opportunity to put some points on the board against a Packers defense that’s missing Clay Matthews, but Rodgers will do more damage than Flacco as the Packers win a high-scoring game.

MDS’s pick: Packers 31, Ravens 27.

Florio’s take:  It’s rock-scissors-paper time in Baltimore, where the Ravens defense is becoming the rock and the Packers’ offensive line is running with scissors.

Florio’s pick:  Ravens 24, Packers 20.

Bengals at Bills

MDS’s take: The Bills’ defense is playing tough, physical football, and Kiko Alonso is my early pick for rookie of the year. If EJ Manuel were playing, I’d pick the Bills. Unfortunately, I just can’t pick a team to win a game when its starting quarterback was on the practice squad a week ago, and that’s what the Bills are doing with Thad Lewis starting. So I’ve got to go with the Bengals.

MDS’s pick: Bengals 16, Bills 13.

Florio’s take:  The Bengals can beat the teams they shouldn’t, and not the teams they should.  This is the weekend they need to turn it around, or they may not be getting beat in January.

Florio’s pick:  Bengals 27, Bills 13.

Lions at Browns

MDS’s take: This is another game where a quarterback injury makes the difference. The Browns won all three games that Brian Hoyer started, and if Hoyer were still starting I’d pick Cleveland to make it four in a row. But with Brandon Weeden back under center, I think the Lions’ defensive line is going to wreak havoc against a quarterback who’s too slow to get rid of the football.

MDS’s pick: Lions 21, Browns 10.

Florio’s take:  The Browns have won three in a row, and they’re wrapping up a three-game home stand at the Factory of Gladness.  Without Calvin Johnson, the Lions aren’t the same team.  I’m guessing Johnson either won’t play or he’ll be too banged up to make a difference against a team that will come within a game of matching its 2012 win total after only six weeks.

Florio’s pick:  Browns 24, Lions 20.

Rams at Texans

MDS’s take: Houston has been playing some terrible football recently, but St. Louis is even worse. The Texans’ defense can shut down the Rams’ offense well enough that even another lousy game from Matt Schaub won’t lose it for Houston.

MDS’s pick: Texans 20, Rams 10.

Florio’s take:  Jeff Fisher returns to Houston with a team that has underachieved, to face a team that has underachieved.  Led by a quarterback who has underachieved.  (That applies to both teams.)  Even with the Texans battling against a home-field disadvantage, their defense is good enough to overcome whatever the quarterback does or doesn’t do.

Florio’s pick:  Texans 23, Rams 16.

Raiders at Chiefs

MDS’s take: Kansas City’s turnaround has been remarkable, and I’m particularly impressed with the aggressive defense the Chiefs are playing, led by the one-man wrecking crew that is Dontari Poe in the middle of the line. I like the way Terrelle Pryor is playing for the Raiders, but Poe is going to get in Pryor’s face all day and make him skittish with his passes.

MDS’s pick: Chiefs 20, Raiders 9.

Florio’s take:  It’s been a long time since both teams in this storied rivalry were relevant.  The Chiefs are very relevant.  And very hard to beat at home.  It won’t be easy, but the Chiefs will finally have the same number of wins at 2012 Pro Bowlers.

Florio’s pick:  Chiefs 20, Raiders 17.

Panthers at Vikings

MDS’s take: Both of these teams seem like they should be better than their 1-3 records. If one of them is going to turn things around, I think it’ll be the one that has Cam Newton at quarterback, not the team that has Christian Ponder or Matt Cassel or Josh Freeman at quarterback.

MDS’s pick: Panthers 17, Vikings 14.

Florio’s take:  The chase to be the Vikings’ quarterback of the future begins on Sunday, as they host a team that thought it had one, but possibly doesn’t.  Losing coach lands on an even hotter seat.  Winner gets a heat reprieve, for at least a week.

Florio’s pick:  Vikings 28, Panthers 21.

Steelers at Jets

MDS’s take: Say what you will about Rex Ryan, but the guy knows how to put together a good defense. He’s done it again this year, and coordinator Marty Mornhinweg is making strides with the offense, too. I still have a hard time seeing the Jets as a playoff contender, but they’ll be 4-2 after beating the woeful Steelers.

MDS’s pick: Jets 27, Steelers 7.

Florio’s take:  The Steelers are 0-5 and the Jets are 3-2 and many expected it to be the opposite.  The Jets have a strong front seven and the Steelers don’t have a strong offensive line and even though Pittsburgh beat the Giants last year in MetLife Stadium the Steelers are a shadow of what they were last year.

Florio’s pick:  Jets 17, Steelers 13.

Eagles at Buccaneers

MDS’s take: Even with Nick Foles in place of Michael Vick, this is a game Philadelphia should win without too much trouble. The Eagles’ schedule is getting a lot easier. They beat the winless Giants last week, they’ll beat the winless Buccaneers this week, and they get the Giants again in two weeks. An 8-8 record may be enough to win the NFC East, and when you look at their schedule it’s easy to see the Eagles getting to eight wins. They’ll get win No. 3 on Sunday.

MDS’s pick: Eagles 24, Buccaneers 13.

Florio’s take:  Chip Kelly and company continue to take advantage of a soft spot in the schedule by running circles around a team that won’t be able to keep up with the Eagles offense, regardless of whether Nick Foles or Mike Vick is running it.  If Vick doesn’t play, it’ll be the first time in league history that both starting quarterbacks in the same game are Napoleon Dynamite dopplegangers.

Florio’s pick:  Eagles 30, Buccaneers 20.

Jaguars at Broncos

MDS’s take: There’s no doubt who will win, but if I were betting this game against the spread (and I’m not), I’d pick the Jaguars to keep it closer than the 28-point margin. The Broncos are coming off an exhausting battle with the Cowboys and probably won’t be at their best. Unfortunately for the Jaguars, the Broncos don’t have to be at their best to win this one.

MDS’s pick: Broncos 35, Jaguars 21.

Florio’s take:  Does watching this game count as rooting for the underdog or rubbernecking at a train wreck?  Survey says . . . . both.

Florio’s pick:  Broncos 49, Jaguars 13.

Titans at Seahawks

MDS’s take: I’ve been impressed with the Titans all year, and they’re a better team than most people realize. But there’s no way Ryan Fitzpatrick is winning at Seattle.

MDS’s pick: Seahawks 34, Titans 17.

Florio’s take:  It’s a shame Jake Locker is injured.  He’s missing the chance to come back to Seattle and have his team suffocated and his ear drums ruptured.

Florio’s pick:  Seahawks 24, Titans 10.

Saints at Patriots

MDS’s take: The best game of the week is in New England, where the Patriots need Rob Gronkowski to return against a surprisingly tough Saints defense. Even if Gronk is at full speed, however, I think Drew Brees and Jimmy Graham are a better pair right now than Tom Brady and Gronkowski, and I like the Saints to put up a lot of points.

MDS’s pick: Saints 31, Patriots 21.

Florio’s take:  The Saints proved that they can win away from home against a competent team like the Bears.  With an elite offense and a much-improved defense, why not a clean road sweep of the Super Bowl XX teams that played in New Orleans?

Florio’s pick:  Saints 27, Patriots 21.

Cardinals at 49ers

MDS’s take: The 49ers have put their stumbles behind them and are playing great football. The Cardinals are better than most of us expected, but there’s a clear NFC West pecking order, and the Cards are behind the Niners.

MDS’s pick: 49ers 31, Cardinals 10.

Cardinals at 49ers

Florio’s take:  Bruce Arians doesn’t “see the dominance” of the 49ers and Seahawks.  While the 49ers aren’t yet dominant this year, Arians probably won’t like what he sees.

Florio’s pick:  49ers 27, Cardinals 17.

Redskins at Cowboys

MDS’s take: Dallas’s defense is struggling, and Robert Griffin III may put up some big numbers. But Washington’s defense is struggling even more, and Tony Romo may put up some bigger numbers.

MDS’s pick: Cowboys 35, Redskins 31.

Florio’s take:  Jerry Jones won’t be talking about moral victories come Monday.  He’ll have an actual victory.  You know, the kind where his team scores more points than the other.

Florio’s pick:  Cowboys 21, Redskins 13.

Colts at Chargers

MDS’s take: I’m amazed at the way the Colts keep shaking off injuries and finding ways to win. The Chargers are playing well on offense, but their secondary is a mess, and Andrew Luck should pick it apart.

MDS’s pick: Colts 34, Chargers 20.

Florio’s take:  The Chargers once were a thorn in Indy’s side.  The Chargers are now littered with thorns of their own, and the Colts have found a way in the post-Peyton era to blossom, no matter the amount of duress.

Florio’s pick:  Colts 24, Chargers 21.

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47 Responses to “PFT’s Week Six picks”
  1. skoobyfl says: Oct 10, 2013 10:50 AM

    Bills will beat Cincy, a little Byrd told me.

  2. jerruhjones says: Oct 10, 2013 11:01 AM

    Florio picking the Browns? Hell must be freezing over.

  3. peytonshead says: Oct 10, 2013 11:03 AM

    rock-scissors-paper? the universal game is rock, paper, scissors.

  4. banlarson says: Oct 10, 2013 11:06 AM

    Look for the Packers to fall to the Ravens, the Bears will take one on the chin from the “must win” Giants, the Lions will continue their fall to reality and lose to the Browns and Vikings win their first real home game. This leaves the Central with 3-3 and 2-3 records for all 4.

  5. andyreidisabeachedwalrus says: Oct 10, 2013 11:22 AM

    …And the Packers are on the road, not at home. My bad. Doesnt change my opinion tho. Dunno how the Ravens with currently no running game & jump ball Joe behind center get it done.

  6. ringheadcrusher says: Oct 10, 2013 11:23 AM

    Never take a team with a 28-point spread. Not because it’s impossible for a team to win by that much, but because the team is likely at some point to decide they’ve scored enough points and pull their starters. John Fox’s job is not to cover the spread. And he knows that if Manning gets injured while he’s trying to run up some ridiculous score, he’ll be guillotined in the parking lot after the game.

  7. jayovalentine says: Oct 10, 2013 11:26 AM

    Skins win in Dallas after the Bye. If Redskins lose all the other games, they will play Dallas hard.

  8. cospgsmadman says: Oct 10, 2013 11:34 AM

    How strange…I think the Broncos might win too

  9. zam0854 says: Oct 10, 2013 11:35 AM

    Tiki’s ghost is haunting the running game of your NY Giants….0-6 here we come…”started from the bottom now were….were…were still here”

  10. packman331 says: Oct 10, 2013 11:37 AM

    “Vikings win their first real home game”

    Where was the week 3 loss to the Browns played?

  11. EJ says: Oct 10, 2013 11:44 AM

    Buffalo’s Defense will stand tough against Cincinnati, but It won’t matter much since Lewis won’t put up enough if any points. With Byrd back in the lineup it changes the way Dalton will attack the Bills D, Alonso has been shutting down any TE game and Williams, Williams and Dareus have been harassing QB’s all year, but a Defense can’t win too many games on its own. Cincinnati 13, Buffalo 3.

  12. tdhebert says: Oct 10, 2013 11:45 AM

    I think Sean Payton should win Coach of the Year! Who Dat!!!

  13. bwisnasky says: Oct 10, 2013 11:46 AM

    Sorry.. Chiefs for above…. not used to not having spell check ;)

  14. TheWizard says: Oct 10, 2013 11:51 AM

    Saints over Pats is the right pick. I would point out however, in spite of the Pats only scoring six points last week, at the end of the game if that monsoon wouldn’t have hit on the Patriots last drive they had a good shot to tie that game and potentially win it.

    Look for a good effort from New England this week win or lose.

  15. southpaw2k says: Oct 10, 2013 12:03 PM

    Prior to the season, I didn’t think the Ravens would have much of a chance against the Packers. Now the Packers lost their starting left tackle and two of their linebackers will be out for this game. This is a classic “head vs. heart” match up.

    Heart: Ravens 30, Packers 20

    Head: Packers 27, Ravens 21

  16. jacktheraven says: Oct 10, 2013 12:13 PM

    Rodgers is the only 20 mil. QB earning his money? Better watch the 3 Ravens wins. Ravens would not want another QB. They’ll be just fine.

  17. brownsdawg1984 says: Oct 10, 2013 12:17 PM

    Don’t sleep on Thad Lewis. He came in last year off the practice squad to start against the Steelers and had a solid game. And let’s face it, 10 points is enough to beat the Bengals.

  18. ColtsWinColtsWin!! says: Oct 10, 2013 12:25 PM

    lets see, I picked the Colts to beat the 9ers and shehawks, so let me see, the Bears still have Cutler as a QB, Giants 27-Bears 10.

    You heard it here first….
    I ought to start charging you JA’s for this advice!

  19. cursedvikings1998 says: Oct 10, 2013 12:25 PM

    The Vikings will get a huge lead against the Panthers and then blow it in the final seconds cuz they’re cursed.

  20. rabidbillsfan says: Oct 10, 2013 12:26 PM

    Wow, @EJ, I think you are Jeff Tuel in disguise. Thad put up 20 on a better Steelers defense last season, he will put up more than 3 on the Bengals. Bengals are on the road, emotional high after beating NE and snapping Brady’s streak. While I find it hard to pick the Bills to win, I still think I’m going to. CJ and Fred will see alot of action, and look for Robert Woods to exploit the 8/9-man fronts. I see Dalton turning the ball over alot, making short fields for an offense that needs them. Buffalo 23- Cinci 20.

  21. vegasgreek says: Oct 10, 2013 12:33 PM

    Aaron Rodgers is due to explode and throw for 4-5 tds in a game. Packers win big on the road 34-24. IF the Raiders can keep it close and stay in the game in the 4th quarter they can upset KC on a Seabass FG. The almost put up 28 points in Denver. IF Run DMC plays and runs for 100yds this game could be the upset of the week. It will be a dog fight. This could be a watershed game for the Raiders to show the NFL they are moving in the right direction. They will be jacked up for this game.

  22. cursedvikings1998 says: Oct 10, 2013 12:36 PM

    The Vikings will get a huge lead against the Panthers and then blow it in the final seconds cuz they’re cursed.

  23. jayniner says: Oct 10, 2013 12:42 PM

    I like how most analysts(except Florio) were quick to label the 49ers a bust this season, calling it the “Super Bowl Hangover”, “Sophmore Slump” for Kaepernick, etc..

    We’re just getting warmed up….

  24. mrsmell says: Oct 10, 2013 1:10 PM

    If Houston doesnt dominate St Louis, consider their season done or in turmoil. This should be an easy game every where. Foster and Tate should both be over 100 yrds and have Schaub just sit back and get his mojo again.

  25. guitarkevin says: Oct 10, 2013 1:12 PM

    Ravens win this week at home where they typically rule.
    Monroe taking over at LT, Jacoby Jones returning. Look for Joe to start looking like the SB MVP he is.

  26. bengalguy says: Oct 10, 2013 1:16 PM

    Bills fans still think its Kelly to Reed & Thomas running.
    BENGALS 24 bills 10
    Nothing to see here!!!

  27. natepalmer1 says: Oct 10, 2013 1:21 PM

    Week 6 picks:
    Colts lose…
    Saints lose…
    Jets lose…
    40whiners lose…
    Giants lose…
    Packers lose…
    Redskins lose…
    Beat down of the week: Seahawks crush Titans
    Upset of the week: Jags beat Peyton Horse-Face and the Broncos…
    BTW Colts will not get past wild card weekend…
    Believe it…
    SEAHAWKS!

  28. gln9213 says: Oct 10, 2013 1:24 PM

    The Raiders have won 6 in a row at KC.

  29. basslargemouth says: Oct 10, 2013 1:33 PM

    Aaron Rodgers can’t throw when he is on his back. Joe Flacco is due to explode and throw for 3-4 tds in a game and Ray Rice will rush for 100+. Ravens win big at home 34-17 BANK IT!.

  30. pooflingingmonkey says: Oct 10, 2013 1:34 PM

    I’m sure the last place, winless Steelers will win… eventually.

  31. themostlogicalofvoices says: Oct 10, 2013 1:36 PM

    Florio’s take: It’s rock-scissors-paper time in Baltimore, where the Ravens defense is becoming the rock and the Packers’ offensive line is running with scissors.

    —————————————————-

    Uhhh, you do realize that GB has one of the best rushing attacks in the league this year, statistically speaking. And they have faced SF, CIN, and DET which are some of the best defensive front in the NFL this season. This isn’t 20011-2012, Florio. Green Bay’s offensive line is playing like one of the better groups in the league right now and it doesn’t appear to matter which running back they have in the backfield. They’ve had two go for 100+ and Lacy would have had about 110 if it wasn’t for a holding call on his last run, instead he settled for 99.

    If you are going to make picks then at least support your pick with something relevant to this football season and not seasons past.

  32. jdubkc says: Oct 10, 2013 1:54 PM

    vegasgreek says: Oct 10, 2013 12:33 PM

    IF the Raiders can keep it close and stay in the game in the 4th quarter they can upset KC on a Seabass FG. The almost put up 28 points in Denver. IF Run DMC plays and runs for 100yds this game could be the upset of the week. It will be a dog fight. This could be a watershed game for the Raiders to show the NFL they are moving in the right direction. They will be jacked up for this game.
    _______________
    That’s a big IF… KC’s offence hasn’t gotten going until the 4th Quarter, I see this as the weakness. The raiders put up 28 pts against Den yes, Den D is horrid ranked 29, KC D is ranked 7. It will be a dog fight, it always is. Raiders have won the last 6 times in Arrowhead, Guinness Book is there and KC is 5-0. I think it will be KC that is jacked up. And “Run DMC” around here is known as Dexter Marquise McCluster…

  33. crush22 says: Oct 10, 2013 1:54 PM

    natepalmer1 says:
    Oct 10, 2013 1:21 PM
    Week 6 picks:
    Colts lose…
    Saints lose…
    Jets lose…
    40whiners lose…
    Giants lose…
    Packers lose…
    Redskins lose…
    Beat down of the week: Seahawks crush Titans
    Upset of the week: Jags beat Peyton Horse-Face and the Broncos…
    BTW Colts will not get past wild card weekend…
    Believe it…
    SEAHAWKS!

    ________________________________

    Somebody sounds a little butt-hurt that the Colts beat their girls.

  34. goodellisruiningtheleague says: Oct 10, 2013 2:08 PM

    Wow I can’t believe the score predictions for Washington at Dallas… You all really think it’s going to be that close of a game? I was predicting a blowout from Dallas against the Redskins weak secondary.

  35. azarkhan says: Oct 10, 2013 2:15 PM

    I doubt Gronkowski will play, which will make it a long afternoon for the Patriots.

  36. usdcoyotesfan says: Oct 10, 2013 2:22 PM

    Packers 48 Ravens 7.

  37. marthisdil says: Oct 10, 2013 2:23 PM

    “jacktheraven says: Oct 10, 2013 12:13 PM

    Rodgers is the only 20 mil. QB earning his money? Better watch the 3 Ravens wins. Ravens would not want another QB. They’ll be just fine.”

    =============================

    LOL – you mean the drubbing of the Texans, beating cleveland by a td, and barely eeking out against the fish?

    Where was he for the loss vs the bills and the blowout against the Broncos?

    Flacco’s not worth $20 mill, no matter what the Ravens fans say. Flacco = average.

  38. flexx91 says: Oct 10, 2013 2:35 PM

    natepalmer1 says:
    Oct 10, 2013 1:21 PM
    Week 6 picks:
    Saints lose…
    Believe it…
    SEAHAWKS
    ___________________________________

    So, I suppose you’re going with your heart and not your mind because you’re a Seahawks fan. I know it’s still early but you better hope homefield throughout the playoffs doesn’t go through the Superdome…….

  39. bears160 says: Oct 10, 2013 2:35 PM

    Another delusional Vikings fan….All NFC North teams lose and the Vikings win??? I think there is a better chance the Bears, Lions and Packers win while the Vikings hole gets bigger and bigger….

    banlarson says:
    Oct 10, 2013 11:06 AM
    Look for the Packers to fall to the Ravens, the Bears will take one on the chin from the “must win” Giants, the Lions will continue their fall to reality and lose to the Browns and Vikings win their first real home game. This leaves the Central with 3-3 and 2-3 records for all 4.

  40. vikingfan1971 says: Oct 10, 2013 2:44 PM

    I dont think so on your prediction usdcoyotesfan
    the pack is not going to stomp on the ravens, I believe the ravens will win. You guys dont have Matthews

  41. dbfan4ever says: Oct 10, 2013 3:28 PM

    redskins will beat cowboys

  42. r81ders says: Oct 10, 2013 3:53 PM

    Oakland @ Kc nice one
    Kc is going have to beat us in the pass game oakland can finally stop the run, but if there’s no pass rush its going be a long day. Oakland can finally score points not worried about that. Everyone back except Branch and Burres two top key players for oakland on D.
    Oak 27 Kc 24

  43. shatho1 says: Oct 10, 2013 4:36 PM

    I guess all of us missed the game between the steelers and kids inc that dropped them to 0-5. Last I knew the steelers had a bye week last week and are 0-4. BTW Cowboys 35-21 over the Redskins. GO COWBOYS!!!

  44. nkybengalsfan says: Oct 10, 2013 5:59 PM

    Saints over Pats is the right pick. I would point out however, in spite of the Pats only scoring six points last week, at the end of the game if that monsoon wouldn’t have hit on the Patriots last drive they had a good shot to tie that game and potentially win it.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Really? Just like the rest of the game when it was not raining? 2 minutes of rain was more important than the 58 minutes of no rain that the Cinci Def was kickin Brady’s ass. From Snap number two, when one Mr. Geno Adtkins intriduced him self to pretty boy #12, Brady was a nervous wreck. Rain or no rain, the bengals were going to win that game.

  45. yetimonster says: Oct 10, 2013 6:13 PM

    Andy Reid COY

  46. jacktheraven says: Oct 11, 2013 9:19 AM

    @marthisdil: You say Flacco=avg. Sorry, having the most wins of ANY QB, over the last 5 yrs, SB MVP, AND a 120 mil. contract is NOT average. No matter what you say.

  47. deathonwings410 says: Oct 11, 2013 9:46 AM

    Ravens over Packers. No Clay Matthews will be a disaster for them.

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