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PFT’s Week Nine picks

Chiefs Getty Images

Alas, I failed to gain any ground on MDS in Week Eight.  I didn’t lose any either.  We each went 10-3, splitting the two games on which we differed.

This week, we disagree on three games.  Which means I can cut his four-game lead down to one.  (I was always good at math.  Speling not so mutch.)

For the year, he’s 81-39, and I’m 77-43.

For a complete look at this week’s picks, just keep on reading.

Actually, I don’t care if you keep reading.  The click already has been registered.

Bengals at Dolphins

MDS’s take: The Bengals are surging and the Dolphins are falling. I see Cincinnati winning big and NFL Network televising another Thursday night game that many fans will turn off at halftime. Also, never bet against a team that wears black and orange on Halloween.

MDS’s pick: Bengals 30, Dolphins 10.

Florio’s take:  This is precisely the kind of game that the Bengals can lose.  Road game against an overmatched opponent with four straight losses and general disarray.  But a skeptical nation will be watching this one while discreetly bogarting its children’s Halloween candy.  One of the best teams in the AFC will step up, or risk not being perceived as one of the best teams in the AFC.

Florio’s pick:  Bengals 31, Dolphins 20.

Chiefs at Bills

MDS’s take: The Bills’ defense is good enough to hold the Chiefs’ offense in check, so this game should be close into the fourth quarter — certainly closer than you’d think for an 8-0 team facing a 3-5 team. I have a funny feeling a big play on special teams late in the game will give this one to the Chiefs.

MDS’s pick: Chiefs 17, Bills 14.

Florio’s take:  It’s time.  The Chiefs have flirted with disaster the last two Sundays at home, narrowly beating the Texans and the Browns.  This week, the Chiefs go on the road, where they really haven’t been tested this year.  The Bills have easily beaten the Chiefs each of the last two years.  While this one won’t be a blowout, it’s time for someone to score more points than the last undefeated team in the NFL.

Florio’s pick:  Bills 23, Chiefs 20.

Falcons at Panthers

MDS’s take: The Falcons are finished. The Panthers are playing great football right now. Carolina has won three straight games by more than two touchdowns, and Sunday will make it four in a row.

MDS’s pick: Panthers 35, Falcons 17.

Florio’s take:  It’ll be interesting to see if the Panthers can recover from a 10-point deficit.  With the defense playing as well as it is, that may not happen any time soon.  With some tough games looming, the Panthers could get a tough test from a team fighting for its playoff life.  Based on how the Falcons played in Arizona last week, it won’t matter.

Florio’s pick:  Panthers 24, Falcons 17.

Vikings at Cowboys

MDS’s take: The Cowboys’ defense may be shellshocked after what Calvin Johnson did to them on Sunday, but there’s no way the Vikings’ terrible passing game is going to make big plays in Dallas. The Cowboys will probably only need to win eight games to win the NFC East, and they’ll earn their fifth win on Sunday.

MDS’s pick: Cowboys 27, Vikings 13.

Florio’s takeAdrian Peterson returns home to Texas to face a team that could really use him.  Even without him, they have enough firepower to defeat a Vikings team that could be worse than the 3-13 edition from 2011.

Florio’s pick:  Cowboys 35, Vikings 17.

Saints at Jets

MDS’s take: I expect Rex Ryan’s defense to rebound from last week’s disaster in Cincinnati and play well against the Saints’ offense, but I don’t expect Geno Smith to play much better than he did last week. As a result, the Saints win a low-scoring game.

MDS’s pick: Saints 20, Jets 14.

Florio’s take:  It’s a Ryan twins reunion in New York.  Even though the Jets are doing better than expected, they aren’t good enough to close a major gap in talent one week after being blown out by the Bengals.

Florio’s pick:  Saints 30, Jets 17.

Titans at Rams

MDS’s take: The Rams were more competitive than I expected them to be in Monday night’s loss to the Seahawks, but the Kellen Clemens-led offense is going to be in a lot of low-scoring losses the rest of the season. That’s what I expect to happen when Jeff Fisher’s old team comes to town.

MDS’s pick: Titans 14, Rams 13.

Florio’s take:  The Titans play their first game ever without owner Bud Adams — and against long-time coach Jeff Fisher.  With Tennessee having two weeks to get ready and the Rams operating only six days after a physically and emotionally draining loss to the Seahawks, this could be the ugly result everyone expected on Monday night.

Florio’s pick:  Titans 27, Rams 13.

Chargers at Redskins

MDS’s take: Washington is just not a good team in any phase of the game: The offense still looks like it needs last year’s Robert Griffin III, the defense allows too many big plays in the passing game and the special teams are an absolute disaster. San Diego will put a lot of points on the board and win an easy one.

MDS’s pick: Chargers 31, Redskins 17.

Florio’s takePhilip Rivers owns a 5-1 record against Mike Shanahan.  The Chargers are rested and the Redskins are reeling after suffering a 38-point second-half barrage against the Broncos.

Florio’s pick:  Chargers 24, Redskins 14.

Eagles at Raiders

MDS’s take: Everyone has spent so much time in the last couple weeks asking what’s wrong with Chip Kelly’s offense that a lot of people are overlooking all the problems with the Eagles’ defense. When you can’t even force a turnover against the Giants’ offense — and the Eagles’ defense couldn’t last week — you know something is wrong. Raiders quarterback Terrelle Pryor makes his share of mistakes, but the Eagles don’t have the defense to take advantage of those mistakes. Pryor will make enough big plays with his feet to win this one and make Kelly wish he had a quarterback like Pryor.

MDS’s pick: Raiders 20, Eagles 10.

Florio’s take:  The Raiders complete a rare two-game sweep of Pennsylvania’s pro football teams without ever having to leave the Bay Area.  All four NFC West teams will be at or above .500 come Sunday, thanks to their ability to pulverize the teams of the NFC East.

Florio’s pick:  Raiders 17, Eagles 9.

Buccaneers at Seahawks

MDS’s take: The Buccaneers are playing as badly as any team in the NFL right now. Seattle is the toughest place to play in the league. The Seahawks can name their score.

MDS’s pick: Seahawks 41, Buccaneers 13.

Florio’s take:  Two teams that entered the NFL together in 1976 couldn’t be more different in 2013.  While the Bucs still have the bragging rights that come from winning a Super Bowl, the Seahawks could be on course to match that achievement this year.  Tampa will be a minor speed bump along the path to New York

Florio’s pick:  Seahawks 31, Buccaneers 10.

Ravens at Browns

MDS’s take: Browns quarterback Jason Campbell actually played well against the tough Chiefs’ defense, and the Ravens haven’t been playing well recently. Call me crazy, but I think the defending Super Bowl champions are going down in Cleveland.

MDS’s pick: Browns 20, Ravens 14.

Florio’s take:  The team that used to be the Browns has beaten the Browns 11 straight times.  If the Ravens can’t run that streak to 12, their five-year run of playoff berths could be ending, too.  Rested and re-focused, the Ravens will find a way, as they always seem to do when they need it most.

Florio’s pick:  Ravens 20, Browns 10.

Steelers at Patriots

MDS’s take: The Patriots have had so many injuries that they feel like they’re going to fall apart at any moment, but there they are in their customary spot atop the AFC East. They’ll keep it going against the Steelers.

MDS’s pick: Patriots 27, Steelers 21.

Florio’s take:  The Steelers can win if they commit fully to the run, and if they can find a way to slow down a good-not-great New England offense.  Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger seems to be too determined to prove he’s still a franchise quarterback to buy in to a run-based attack, even if the team’s use of the Wildcat means that the Steelers no longer view him as a true game changer.

Florio’s pick:  Patriots 24, Steelers 21.

Colts at Texans

MDS’s take: Case Keenum may provide the Texans a spark, and the Colts may be due for a letdown. I’m tempted to pick Houston to pull off an upset and snap their five-game losing streak, but I just can’t pull the trigger on it.

MDS’s pick: Colts 21, Texans 20.

Florio’s take:  Two weeks after Peyton Manning returned to his adopted home of Indianapolis, Andrew Luck returns to his real home of Houston.  The question is which Colts team will come with him — and whether Case Keenum can build on his near miss against the Chiefs from Week Seven.  I’ll say the one that lost to the Chargers, and yes.

Florio’s pick:  Texans 27, Colts 20.

Bears at Packers

MDS’s take: In this week’s only matchup of teams with winning records, the Packers will strengthen their grip on the NFC North race with a win over the Bears. Both teams are banged up, but the Bears’ loss of Jay Cutler and Lance Briggs makes it tough for them to win anywhere. I certainly don’t see them winning in Green Bay.

MDS’s pick: Packers 34, Bears 17.

Florio’s takeJosh McCown, Luke McCown, Cade McNown.  Either way, it’s a McLoss, McDog.  Green Bay keeps rolling toward another division title, as long as the quarterback doesn’t join the injured list.

Florio’s pick:  Packers 35, Bears 21.

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42 Responses to “PFT’s Week Nine picks”
  1. purplengold says: Oct 31, 2013 10:57 AM

    Why do you think the Vikings will score a TD?

  2. unclebluck says: Oct 31, 2013 11:03 AM

    Florios right about the KC/Bills game…the Bills will fight like dogs this week just like they have all season and will beat the Chief who really haven’t beat a good team this season…..

  3. cospgsmadman says: Oct 31, 2013 11:09 AM

    There a few “tough” picks this week. I think I donated money to the pool this week.

  4. jbaxt says: Oct 31, 2013 11:10 AM

    Have the Bills beat a good team this season?

  5. timdavis697 says: Oct 31, 2013 11:15 AM

    Bears win upset of the year. Cheese heads going down

  6. vikingsftw says: Oct 31, 2013 11:19 AM

    Chargers will stumble again and lose by 10 to the Bravehearts.

  7. jbl429 says: Oct 31, 2013 11:22 AM

    “Actually, I don’t care if you keep reading. The click already has been registered.”

    But the average time per page hasn’t been!

  8. andyreidisabeachedwalrus says: Oct 31, 2013 11:26 AM

    I also think the Bills are a very viable threat to win that game.

    You guys seem awfully confident but Im not so sure bout the Super Chargers. A team thats notorious for going on prolonged nap times, coming east, for a 1:00 kickoff. As unbearable as it would be to hear Logicals irrational rants go on about gods team being back on to the path to the Superbowl I could see Washington winning that game.

  9. therillest says: Oct 31, 2013 11:28 AM

    Jags 10, Bi-week 35

  10. southpaw2k says: Oct 31, 2013 11:29 AM

    Ravens are undefeated under John Harbaugh following a bye week.

    Ravens 24
    Browns 14

  11. MyTeamsAllStink says: Oct 31, 2013 11:47 AM

    there are more brutally awful teams this year than elite.There isn’t any standout great teams but there are plenty of standout awful ones.

  12. logicalvoicesays says: Oct 31, 2013 11:53 AM

    In three weeks, we’ll be 5-5. In 9 weeks, we’ll be 11-5. In 3 months, we’ll be hoisting our 4th Lombardi in downtown Washington DC. #GodblesstheRedskins

  13. kingviking414 says: Oct 31, 2013 12:01 PM

    Great week for my Vikings!!!
    This game should help keep us on the path to our ultimate goal…1st draft pick…
    Johnny Manziel anyone?

  14. buttfumbles says: Oct 31, 2013 12:03 PM

    Who’s your favorite Ryan twin? Thumbs up for Rex thumbs down for Rob.

  15. usdcoyotesfan says: Oct 31, 2013 1:00 PM

    Packers 56 Bears 0

  16. ketchupaholic says: Oct 31, 2013 1:01 PM

    Tip for the Bears:
    You have two options: Let Arron Rodgers Pick you apart.

    or

    Send the House and smash his on every play. Hit him, knock him down and he’ll be gun shy.

    It’s better to go down fighting than to die a slow death. Their offensive line isn’t that good, just Rodger’s has a quick release. Just make sure they are clean hits, and the Bears will win.

  17. brownoholic says: Oct 31, 2013 1:06 PM

    Brownie win # 4 . . .

  18. repmochief50 says: Oct 31, 2013 1:12 PM

    unclebluck says:
    Oct 31, 2013 11:03 AM
    Florios right about the KC/Bills game…the Bills will fight like dogs this week just like they have all season and will beat the Chief who really haven’t beat a good team this season…..
    …………………………………………………………………………..
    What’s sad is you’re predicting us to lose but WHEN we win again this Sunday, you all will say “Overated, they just beat another team with a losing record”.

  19. wojo243 says: Oct 31, 2013 1:14 PM

    Good to know the Raiders are in the NFC East. Hopefully we’ll catch up to the 9ers and Seahawks.

  20. bobzilla1001 says: Oct 31, 2013 1:14 PM

    The Steelers have never beaten (0-2) Tom Brady in Foxboro. It only stands to reason they would do so when it really doesn’t matter (to the Steelers).
    Steelers 16,
    Patriots 14

  21. flipola says: Oct 31, 2013 1:16 PM

    Titans/Rams 14-13 is a joke. Tennessee was 3-1 before Locker went down, and stayed in most of their losses. Fitz was solely responsible for a couple, and Locker’s back from a week to get healthy. The Rams are just terrible. It’s easy to make this prediction based solely on win-loss records.

  22. oriolesvsravens says: Oct 31, 2013 1:27 PM

    kingviking414 says:

    Oct 31, 2013 12:01 PM
    Great week for my Vikings!!!
    This game should help keep us on the path to our ultimate goal…1st draft pick…
    Johnny Manziel anyone?
    ——————-

    You still have one more year my friend.

  23. steelersaregodsteam says: Oct 31, 2013 1:30 PM

    Steel Rings always prosper.

    Look it up.

  24. laserw says: Oct 31, 2013 1:37 PM

    I don’t see the Washington Redskins winning another game this year unless they dump Halloween Griffin, the gimmick that is dressed as a QB. While I managed to see many of his college games and was so against his signing because he had no real game in him, the so-called pundits slobbered over him.

    Now that the reality of all of the weaknesses that I said he had are glaring to every opposing defense, Halloween Griffin is fading and fading. Without the threat of him being a running back, his only real talent other than a very nice fake hand off, Halloween Griffin could be the worst QB in the NFL the longer he plays.

    When you have a QB who can’t read defenses, locks onto a target without seeing anyone else, has no sense of the pocket or any threat around him, is as mobile evading a pass rush as a statue escaping pigeons, and who is unable to show any leadership or any ability to run a two minute offense, you have problems. When you add the fact that his real effective passing range is 15 yards or less or can only complete something in the air longer than that when a receiver is wide open or a defender falls down, you have truly worthless prospect.

    And the Redskins mortgaged four years’ worth of drafts for a one year gimmick.

  25. heeeeelzfan says: Oct 31, 2013 1:38 PM

    One stat worth noting for Colts-Texans: Indy’s first game without Reggie Wayne after 189 consecutive starts. A real test for Indy. Will be difficult.

  26. jrmbadger says: Oct 31, 2013 1:38 PM

    ketchupaholic says:Oct 31, 2013 1:01 PM

    Tip for the Bears:
    You have two options: Let Arron Rodgers Pick you apart.

    or

    Let Eddie Lacey and James Starks pick you apart
    ========================

    See above, I fixed it for you. I think my version is a bit more accurate consider the Bears are last in the league with only 9 sacks and have the 27th ranked defense.

  27. seattlelibtard says: Oct 31, 2013 1:43 PM

    You guys seem awfully confident but Im not so sure bout the Super Chargers. A team thats notorious for going on prolonged nap times, coming east, for a 1:00 kickoff.
    ______________________________
    Since daylight savings time ends on Saturday, the Chargers will get an extra hour of sleep, so they should be well rested before demolishing the Redskins.

  28. IbelieveinSantaClaus says: Oct 31, 2013 1:43 PM

    bobzilla1001 says:
    Oct 31, 2013 1:14 PM
    The Steelers have never beaten (0-2) Tom Brady in Foxboro. It only stands to reason they would do so when it really doesn’t matter (to the Steelers).
    Steelers 16,
    Patriots 14
    ______

    no worries. pats will take care of business.

  29. chiefballard says: Oct 31, 2013 1:50 PM

    Do people realize the Broncos haven’t played anyone with a winning record outside of the Colts who beat them?

    All of the AFC west teams will play basically the same schedule this year, yet everyone is saying how the Chiefs haven’t beat anyone with a winning record. While true, neither have the Broncos in any of the games they have won.

  30. maxinquaye7 says: Oct 31, 2013 1:52 PM

    “Look it up.”

    No.

  31. scoobies05 says: Oct 31, 2013 2:08 PM

    i only had to go back one week. raiders 21 steelers 18

  32. cbs1971 says: Oct 31, 2013 2:30 PM

    Upset pick:

    Eagles over Raiders…

    Mark my words….

  33. coachjohnharbaugh says: Oct 31, 2013 2:58 PM

    these are the last few days you will ever see the ravens with a losing record for the next 10 years

  34. vikingapologist says: Oct 31, 2013 3:16 PM

    Chargers are legit!
    Chiefs are Legit! I wanted Andy Reid in MN. He is a proven winner, and the chiefs are as nasty as anyone!

  35. kcporkchop says: Oct 31, 2013 3:58 PM

    Come on people, do your homework.

    The Bills have a poor offensive line and could be starting Jeff Tuel at QB since Thad Lewis still hasn’t been able to practice. Also, pass protection has been a MAJOR problem for Buffalo this season and they are going up against a defense that is on pace to challenge the all time sack record for team sacks in a season.

    I have no problem with predicting the Chiefs to drop a game, they are far from perfect, but this isn’t a great match up against that defense.

  36. jumbomesquite says: Oct 31, 2013 4:04 PM

    Pretty sure Goodell still finds a reason to fine Ndamukong Suh this week. On his bye.

  37. fireeyes111 says: Oct 31, 2013 4:13 PM

    jbaxt says:
    Oct 31, 2013 11:10 AM
    Have the Bills beat a good team this season?
    _________________________________

    Win % of teams Chiefs have beaten: .328

    Win % of teams Bills have beaten: .476

    The Bills also have a win against a team over .500, which the Chiefs do not.

  38. emoney826 says: Oct 31, 2013 6:13 PM

    Some Bear fans are just so blind. It would be like a jaguara fan saying that they’re going to beat the Broncos. Not going to happen.

  39. ezwriter69 says: Oct 31, 2013 8:45 PM

    With Wayne out for the year and Heyward-Bey doubtful, Luck will be Watt’s pinata for the night… if Keenum doesn’t bleep it up totally, it’ll be a long painful one for Indy.

  40. drunkwino says: Oct 31, 2013 9:19 PM

    When Jeff Fisher and Gregg Williams go against each other, the only winners are injury reports.

  41. atthemurph says: Nov 1, 2013 9:58 PM

    purplengold says:
    Oct 31, 2013 10:57 AM
    Why do you think the Vikings will score a TD?

    Because they’re playing the Cowboys.

    Hell they’ll probably score 5 touchdowns against that defense. Everyone else scores 6.

  42. ohiobears says: Nov 2, 2013 10:49 PM

    emoney826 says: Oct 31, 2013 6:13 PM

    Some Bear fans are just so blind. It would be like a jaguara fan saying that they’re going to beat the Broncos. Not going to happen.

    __________________________________

    You’d be quite the fool to make such an assumption. it wouldn’t even be close to saying anything like that, considering this years “Jaguara” are the worst team the
    NFL has seen in decades, if not EVER. If you haven’t watched much film this year, Theres a guy in Denver on pace to have the best year of any QB to ever play the game…So basically I wouldn’t put the wackers up on that pedestal, nor would I put Da Bears in the same category as the aforementioned jaguara. on top of that its a division game which can always be closer than it should be. Do I think the Bears are going to win? No. Personally, I think it will be ugly, but heck, you never know. But even in your retarted rationalism, look how the Jags fared against the bronco’s, better than even the ‘stache probably honestly expected.

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