Skip to content

PFT’s Week Ten picks

Divisional Playoffs - Seattle Seahawks v Atlanta Falcons Getty Images

Usually Florio writes the introductions to our weekly PFT picks segments. But with the thorough beating I’ve been giving him in our weekly picks, it’s time for me to take the reins.

Neither one of us had a great week picking games last week, but I went 3-for-3 on the games about which we disagreed. For Week Nine, I went a mediocre 8-5. Florio went a worse-than-mediocre 5-8. That makes me 89-44 on the season, and Florio 82-51.

The good news for Florio is that this week we disagree on a whopping six games, meaning he could close the gap all the way down to one game. Then again, the good news for me is that we disagree on a whopping six games, meaning I could widen the gap all the way up to 13 games, which would be a nearly insurmountable margin through ten weeks.

Read on to see where we agree, where we disagree, and whether Florio is ready to concede that I’m the superior NFL prognosticator.

Redskins at Vikings

MDS’s take: Thursday night’s game matches up two bad teams, but Washington is playing a little bit better recently and is motivated by the slight chance of getting back into the NFC East race. Minnesota is going nowhere but last place in the NFC North.

MDS’s pick: Redskins 24, Vikings 20.

Florio’s take:  The Vikings are teetering on giving up as Washington is inching toward making a run at a second straight division title.  At this rate, some Vikings fans may want to implode the Metrodome with the team inside it.

Florio’s pick:  Redskins 24, Vikings 20.

Seahawks at Falcons

MDS’s take: The Seahawks haven’t been playing particularly well recently, but they’re playing well enough to beat bad teams. That will continue in Atlanta, where the Falcons have totally collapsed.

MDS’s pick: Seahawks 17, Falcons 10.

Florio’s take:  Seattle returns to the scene of its January playoff loss, and these two teams couldn’t be in more different situations.  But the Seahawks recently have been flirting with upsets, and beating the Seahawks in November likely will be the closest the Falcons get to another playoff win in 2013.

Florio’s pick:  Falcons 20, Seahawks 17.

Bengals at Ravens

MDS’s take: The Bengals are going to struggle down the stretch because they’re missing their two best defensive players, tackle Geno Atkins and cornerback Leon Hall. Unfortunately, the Ravens can’t get out of their own way on offense, and with this loss we can pretty much write off the defending champs.

MDS’s pick: Bengals 20, Ravens 17.

Florio’s take:  The Bengals are a different team away from home, and the Ravens now have their backs firmly against the wall.  I’m still not ready to give up on a team that has made it to the playoffs five straight times.

Florio’s pick:  Ravens 27, Bengals 20.

Lions at Bears

MDS’s take: With the NFC North currently in a three-way tie, this game is huge. I think the Lions, who beat the Bears handily in Detroit, will make it a season sweep and take a big step toward winning their first division title since Barry Sanders was a Lion.

MDS’s pick: Lions 27, Bears 24.

Florio’s take:  With Aaron Rodgers injured, the NFC North could be up for grabs.  While the Lions may be better than the Bears, the Bears have the home-field edge and the boost that comes from knocking off the Packers.  With or without Jay Cutler, the Bears get it done at home, where they’ve beaten the Lions seven of eight times.

Florio’s pick:  Bears 17, Lions 13.

Eagles at Packers

MDS’s take: If both of these teams had their starting quarterbacks, I wouldn’t hesitate to pick Aaron Rodgers’s Packers over Michael Vick’s Eagles. But the Seneca Wallace vs. Nick Foles quarterback matchup makes it a lot tougher to call. This one could go either way, but I think the Eagles’ defense has enough holes in it for Packers running back Eddie Lacy to have a big day, and the Packers to overcome the loss of Rodgers.

MDS’s pick: Packers 21, Eagles 17.

Florio’s take:  Philly is 4-1 on the road, 0-4 at home.  More importantly, they head to Lambeau to face a team that has lost its franchise quarterback for a month.  The injuries finally have caught up with the Packers, who’ll suffer the rare indignity of losing twice at home in six days.

Florio’s pick:  Eagles 30, Packers 23.

Rams at Colts

MDS’s take: The Colts don’t always look great, but they usually find a way to win. The Rams don’t always look terrible, but they usually find a way to lose. Form will hold in Indianapolis.

MDS’s pick: Colts 27, Rams 17.

Florio’s take:  The family that once owned the Rams now hosts them, and the Rams limp into town with a backup quarterback and a season of failed expectations.  The Colts are rolling, and it’ll take a better team than the Rams to knock them off.

Florio’s pick:  Colts 28, Rams 17.

Raiders at Giants

MDS’s take: Both of these teams stink, but the Giants have been playing competitively recently, while the Raiders are coming off an ugly blowout loss. Throw in the Giants’ home-field advantage, and this looks like a pretty clear third consecutive win for New York.

MDS’s pick: Giants 30, Raiders 20.

Florio’s take:  The Giants are climbing in to the NFC East hunt just as the Raiders are fading out of the chase for the No. 6 seed in the AFC.  While the Raiders have shown periodic flashes of a promise, the Giants have won two in a row, and they’re gradually getting healthier.

Florio’s pick:  Giants 28, Raiders 17.

Bills at Steelers

MDS’s take: With EJ Manuel back against a bad Steelers defense, I like the Bills to go on the road and pull the upset.

MDS’s pick: Bills 24, Steelers 17.

Florio’s take:  The struggling Steelers are playing for pride.  There’s a chance that may not be enough.  If they lose this one, it really could be time to clean house.

Florio’s pick:  Steelers 17, Bills 13.

Jaguars at Titans

MDS’s take: The Titans are coming off a big win and are, at 4-4, in the AFC playoff hunt. That’s especially true because they still get to play the Jaguars twice. Tennessee will have no trouble with the worst team in the league coming to town.

MDS’s pick: Titans 34, Jaguars 7.

Florio’s take:  The Titans continue to make a play for a postseason appearance.  The Jaguars continue to compete for the No. 1 overall pick in the draft.

Florio’s pick:  Titans 34, Jaguars 9.

Panthers at 49ers

MDS’s take: Both of these teams have been playing good football, and if the playoffs started today (which they don’t) the 49ers and Panthers would be the two NFC wild card teams. This should be a tough, physical football game and should show off two of the NFL’s most talented young quarterbacks. I like the 49ers to win in an exciting game.

MDS’s pick: 49ers 30, Panthers 27.

Florio’s take:  The Panthers have beaten five teams with a combined 8-33 record.  Their next two foes are a combined 13-4.  And they’ll each have an extra week to prepare.  And the 49ers are one of the best teams in the league right now.

Florio’s pick:  49ers 24, Panthers 13.

Texans at Cardinals

MDS’s take: I like the spark that Case Keenum has provided the Texans, but the Cardinals’ defense is a lot better than most people realize, and Keenum is in for a rough day in Arizona.

MDS’s pick: Cardinals 17, Texans 13.

Florio’s take:  The Cardinals deserve more credit than they’ve gotten.  They can get plenty by delivering what would amount to a knockout punch to the Texans.

Florio’s pick:  Cardinals 23, Texans 20.

Broncos at Chargers

MDS’s take: The Chargers are one of the many AFC teams in the hunt for the final wild card spot, and if they could pull off the upset of the Broncos they’d firmly establish themselves as playoff contenders. But it won’t happen. The Chargers’ defense just isn’t good enough to keep the Broncos in check.

MDS’s pick: Broncos 42, Chargers 27.

Florio’s take:  Last year, the Broncos used a Monday night comeback for the ages in San Diego to launch an 11-game winning streak.  This year, the up-and-down Chargers have the talent to pull the upset — and they just might.  If they can hold the Broncos under 40 points.  But they can’t.

Florio’s pick:  Broncos 41, Chargers 34.

Cowboys at Saints

MDS’s take: This could be an NFC playoff preview, as the Cowboys lead the East and the Saints lead the South. Unfortunately for Dallas, it’s also going to be a preview of the beatdown the Cowboys can expect to get in the playoffs.

MDS’s pick: Saints 28, Cowboys 14.

Florio’s take:  Rob Ryan gets his revenge against the team that made him a scapegoat in January.  Especially since the Cowboys can’t/won run the ball and can’t/won try to take away what the opponent does best on offense.

Florio’s pick:  Saints 31, Cowboys 21.

Dolphins at Buccaneers

MDS’s take: It’s the battle of the team whose players get bullied in the locker room against the team whose players get infected in the locker room. Even aside from the off-field issues, this is an ugly Monday night game in a season that seems to have had an inordinate number of ugly prime time games. I see the Dolphins’ defense keeping the score down enough to win a close one.

MDS’s pick: Dolphins 17, Buccaneers 14.

Florio’s take:  The Dolphins already have won a game since the Jonathan Martin situation began to unfold.  Like the 2007 Patriots post-Spygate, the situation could pull the team together in an us-against-the-world approach.  But there are still four days to go until the Dolphins and Bucs play, and the off-field distraction could intensify.  It’s fitting that a team like Tampa gets a crack at Miami when it’s dealing with as big a mess as any that Greg Schiano and company have faced this year.

Florio’s pick:  Buccaneers 20, Dolphins 14.

Permalink 35 Comments Feed for comments Latest Stories in: Features, Rumor Mill, Top Stories
yo

Wilson thinks NFL fines for Marshawn are excessive

wilsonmarshawn AP

Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson is one of the NFL’s golden boys, a player who conducts himself in public exactly the way the league wants. But if Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch has a different approach, Wilson thinks that’s fine.

Wilson said he thinks the fines that the NFL has threatened Lynch with are excessive. All Wilson cares about is that Lynch is a good teammate.

“There’s times I don’t think he should be fined, that’s for sure, especially to the extent that people try to fine him for,” Wilson said. “That’s just my honest opinion. I think the guy loves the game, people love the way he is, and sometimes people try to take certain things away from people, the way they are. I don’t know. I don’t think he should be fined for it, personally.”

Lynch has risked fines this week both for spending only five minutes a day in the presence of reporters and for wearing his own Beast Mode hats rather than NFL-authorized gear. It wouldn’t be surprising if the NFL ends up fining Lynch so much that he actually loses money for appearing in the Super Bowl. That sounds ridiculous to Wilson — and surely to many NFL players who think the NFL is too heavy-handed in its practice of fining players.

Permalink 12 Comments Feed for comments Back to top

Austin Collie joins CFL’s B.C. Lions

Austin Collie AP

Austin Collie is headed to the Canadian Football League.

Collie, the former Colts, 49ers and Patriots wide receiver, has signed with the British Columbia Lions, the team said Thursday.

A Hamilton, Ontario native, the 29-year-old Collie has caught 179 passes for 1,908 yards and 13 TDs in five NFL seasons, with the bulk of his experience with Indianapolis from 2009 through 2012. He also had stints with San Francisco and New England in 2013, catching four passes for 57 yards in the 2013 AFC title game with the Patriots. Collie did not play for an NFL club in 2014.

Collie endured multiple significant injuries in his Colts career, missing extended time in 2010 because of a concussion and nearly all of 2012 because of a patellar tendon tear.

Permalink 8 Comments Feed for comments Back to top

NFL didn’t log the PSI of each Patriots football

Football Getty Images

What was the precise PSI of each of the 12 footballs the Patriots’ offense used in the AFC Championship Game? We’ll probably never know.

NFL head of officiating Dean Blandino confirmed today that the NFL didn’t log the exact PSI of each football. According to Blandino, when officials inspect footballs to see if they’re properly inflated, they simply approve them or disapprove them.

In other words, although the Patriots did play with under-inflated footballs, the NFL hasn’t kept detailed records of whether those footballs were slightly under-inflated (which could be the result of a change in temperature) or significantly under-inflated (which would indicate that someone purposely let air out of the footballs).

The NFL will apply a low standard of proof to the Deflategate investigation, which means that the NFL doesn’t necessarily need an air-tight case to conclude that the Patriots broke the rules. But anyone who wants the NFL to get to the bottom of this should want the NFL to be as careful as it possibly can to preserve every piece of evidence it possibly can. And a detailed log of the inflation levels of each football is a piece of evidence the NFL should have.

Permalink 137 Comments Feed for comments Back to top

Earl Thomas apparently angry about random HGH test

NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks Team Media Availability Getty Images

The Seahawks have found something else to be aggravated with the NFL about.

Safety Earl Thomas posted a tweet this morning about being tested for HGH, and some of his teammates aren’t too pleased about it.

According to Ed Werder of ESPN, Thomas wouldn’t elaborate today, but another Seahawks player told him: “We are being treated like criminals, tested like people on parole.”

The league began testing in October, and they tested six players from eight randomly selected teams each week.

So while Thomas might have just coincidentally been on the list for this week, he and his teammates certainly don’t see it that way.

 

Permalink 53 Comments Feed for comments Back to top

Jonathan Dwyer placed on probation after pleading guilty to disorderly conduct

Jonathan Dwyer AP

Running back Jonathan Dwyer saw his 2014 season come to an early end when the Cardinals placed him on the non-football illness list following an arrest related to an incident with his wife in September.

The legal matters stemming from that arrest came to an end this week when Dwyer pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor charge of disorderly conduct in Maricopa County, Arizona. Maricopa County Superior Court spokesman Vincent Funari said, via the Associated Press, that Dwyer has been sentenced to 18 months of probation and community service as a result of the plea.

Dwyer was originally facing a felony count of aggravated assault and other misdemeanor charges before the plea as a result of the incident, which allegedly featured Dwyer head butting his wife in the face and breaking her nose.

The NFL could discipline Dwyer as well, although it’s not clear how much of a playing future Dwyer has ahead of him given his mediocre on-field production at a position where teams have proven adept at finding productive players on a regular basis.

Permalink 2 Comments Feed for comments Back to top

Lions have proposed expanding replay to cover penalty calls

Cowboys take down Lions; head to Green Bay next Getty Images

The Lions lost to the Cowboys in the Wild Card round of the playoffs in a game that featured officials picking up a flag for pass interference on Cowboys linebacker Anthony Hitchens in the fourth quarter.

That decision helped keep the door open for Dallas to win the game and NFL vice president of officiating Dean Blandino said in the days after the game that there should have been a defensive holding call on the play at the very least. The Lions would like to see all teams have a chance to challenge such rulings in the future.

At a press conference in Arizona Thursday, Blandino said that the Lions have made a proposal to expand replay so that it includes penalty calls in the future.

“We’ve had discussions going back to last offseason talking about expanding replay and adding to the list of reviewable plays,” Blandino said, via the Lions website. “I think when you look at the evolution of replay and where it started, it was always based in fact. Did the football touch the ground? Did the foot touch the sideline? And we stayed away from the areas that involved subjective judgement. There’s always judgement, but there’s different levels of subjective judgement and that was in the areas of pass interference and offensive holding. I think it’s something as the technology has improved and now we have high definition and super slow motion and 4K, all of that technology begs the question can we eliminate some of the mistakes that happen during the game? I think that’s something that’s going to be on the agenda this offseason.”

Over the years, one of the chief objections to expanding replay is that it would lead to slower games. It’s hard to see where there would be a huge rise in the number of challenges if the current arrangement for coaches is kept in place, however, and the ability to make the correct ruling on the field rather than in a press release after a game should be an appealing one.

Permalink 45 Comments Feed for comments Back to top

LeSean McCoy wants to talk to Eagles, but not about pay cut

1d3713faef2f0f9e198417dd0928916c Getty Images

Eagles running back LeSean McCoy wants to work with the Eagles.

He just doesn’t want to work for less.

Via Jeff McLane of the Philadelphia Inquirer, McCoy said he’s happy to restructure his contract, so long as it doesn’t mean a cut in pay.

“I know how hard it is to keep a team together and I want to be part of this team. But I don’t want to take less money,” McCoy said. “I want to figure a way to make it happen [where] we’re all together.”

McCoy is scheduled to make $9.75 million this year, but carries a cap charge of nearly $12 million. That’s a big number for a team that also wants to keep wide receiver Jeremy Maclin out of free agency.

“We’re going to work it work it out and see what happens,” McCoy said. “I got to pay my boy Mac.”

But it’s not going to be out of his own pocket, if it’s up to McCoy.

Permalink 22 Comments Feed for comments Back to top

Archie Manning: Peyton evaluating everything before making a decision

cd0ymzcznguwzdbhnduynddiytjhm2yyzthlmtjjotqwyyznptzjy2qxntdkodk2ntg3otjly2u1ztjiytcxzwq0mgzh AP

Patriots quarterback Tom Brady wants to see Peyton Manning back in the NFL in 2015, but Manning’s father said Thursday that his son is still weighing his options.

Archie Manning said that Peyton is evaluating everything about the decision to return for another season and that he’s confident his son will make the right decision when the time comes. The first Manning to play quarterback in the NFL added that his son was disappointed that offensive coordinator Adam Gase joined John Fox in moving from Denver to Chicago this offseason, but that Gase’s departure probably wouldn’t swing things in any direction.

“Peyton’s going to try to decide whether he wants to play or retire. If he decides to play, he’ll be fine. It’ll be another coordinator. He’ll deal with it,” Manning said, via NBC San Diego.

Peyton Manning won’t have to do too much guesswork about what new wrinkles might be in the Denver offense since coach Gary Kubiak and offensive coordinator Rick Dennison have a long history designing schemes in the NFL. Kubiak also said that he’s going to work with Manning to design the offense if the veteran returns for another season with the Broncos.

Permalink 32 Comments Feed for comments Back to top

49ers hire Tom Gamble as senior personnel executive

UFC Fighters meet San Francisco 49ers Players Getty Images

The 49ers are bringing back Tom Gamble.

Gamble, most recently the Eagles’ vice president of player personnel, has joined San Francisco as a senior personnel executive, the team said Thursday.

The Eagles parted ways with Gamble in December after two seasons on the job. He spent the previous eight seasons with San Francisco, serving as the club’s director of player personnel in 2011 and 2012.

“Tom is one of the most experienced, knowledgeable, and respected personnel men in the business,” 49ers General Manager Trent Baalke said in a team-issued statement. “He played an instrumental role in our personnel department from 2005-2012, and is well versed in our system having played a role in its development. This familiarity, along with his many strengths, will be tremendous assets as we prepare for free agency and the draft.  It is great to have Tom back with the 49ers.”

Permalink 12 Comments Feed for comments Back to top

Jets tab Jimmie Johnson as tight ends coach

Minnesota Vikings 2011 Headshots Getty Images

The Jets have added a pair of assistants with NFL playing experience to their coaching staff.

The club announced the hiring of Jimmie Johnson as tight ends coach and Daylon McCutcheon as a defensive backs assistant on Thursday.

Johnson, 48, was the Vikings’ tight ends coach from 2006 through 2013. He played 10 NFL seasons at tight end (1989-1998).

McCutcheon, 38, played eight NFL seasons at cornerback for Cleveland (1999-2006). The Jets’ new head coach, Todd Bowles, had a pair of secondary-coaching roles for the Browns from 2001 through 2004. McCutcheon had a coaching internship with Arizona in 2014, when Bowles was the Cardinals’ defensive coordinator.

Johnson and Bowles were teammates with Washington in 1989 and 1990.

The Jets also announced the hiring of Ryan Slowik as a defensive line assistant and a defensive quality control coach. Slowik was assistant defensive backs coach in Arizona in 2013 and 2014.

Permalink 9 Comments Feed for comments Back to top

NFL health and safety report says concussions, ACLs are down

New York Giants v New York Jets

Good news everybody, football isn’t dangerous any more.

The league issued its annual health and safety report Thursday, highlighting all the progress seemingly made in the prevention of injuries.

Among the numbers, they cite concussions down 25 percent from 2013 to 2014, and concussions caused by helmet-to-helmet hits down 28 percent in the last year.

Of course, the raw numbers are still alarming, as there were a total of 202 concussions in practice, preseason and regular season games last year, down from 229 in 2013 and 261 in 2012.

The league numbers also dispute the anecdotal notion (held by much of their workforce) that Thursday games are bad for your health, with an average of 4.8 injuries per Thursday games last year compared to 6.9 injuries per game on Sundays and Mondays.

Of course, that doesn’t take into account the wear and tear provided by the short weeks, and how the shortened recovery time could contribute to some of those weekend aches and pains.

Fewer ACL’s are being sprained however, with “just” 49 this year as opposed to 57 the year before. MCL’s are doing worse, with 138 this year after 136 the last year.

The reality is, football remains dangerous to those who play it, despite any efforts to make it safer, or to suggest that it’s becoming safer.

Permalink 25 Comments Feed for comments Back to top

Michael Bidwill: We’ve had a lot of great conversations with Larry Fitzgerald

Larry Fitzgerald AP

One of the first orders of business for the Cardinals this offseason is addressing wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald’s contract, which currently calls for him to account for $23.6 million of their salary cap space in 2015.

Cardinals General Manager Steve Keim has said that the team has planned for Fitzgerald’s cap hit and that they won’t cut him to make life easier financially, but the team would prefer to have more room available to address other needs. Doing so would mean restructuring or extending Fitzgerald’s contract and team president Michael Bidwill told Mike Florio on PFT Live Thursday that he’s confident that things will work out.

“I think so. We’ve had a lot of great conversations and I’m feeling very comfortable we’ll get something worked out,” Bidwill said. “He’s been traveling since the end of the season and he’s back in town now. Obviously everybody’s busy this week, but I think in the coming weeks we’ll get something sorted out.”

For the rest of what Bidwill had to say about playing the role of host for the NFL this week, check out the entire interview below.

Permalink 9 Comments Feed for comments Back to top

Justin Tuck: Ndamukong Suh fits the Raider mold

Ndamukong Suh AP

The Raiders have a lot of cap space at their disposal this offseason and defensive end Justin Tuck knows how he’d like the team to spend some of it.

Speaking from the Super Bowl on Thursday, Tuck shared his thoughts on the impending free agency of Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. While he thinks you could “probably do without” some of the on-field tactics that have landed Suh in trouble during his career, Tuck said Suh is a “hell of a football player” whose overall game makes him seem “to be an Oakland Raider.”

“[He’s] Raider-ish,” Tuck said, via the Detroit Free Press. “And that’s one of the reasons why I know Raider Nation would applaud that move, beyond the fact that he’s an awesome football player. He kind of fits the mold of … the toughness and the ferocious player that built the Oakland Raiders.”

It would help to know who will be running the defense, but adding Suh to a defensive front that features 2014 first-round pick Khalil Mack, linebacker Sio Moore and Tuck would seem to be a step in the right direction for a team that gave up the most points in the league last season.

Permalink 34 Comments Feed for comments Back to top

Vermeil blames “poor management” for changes in San Francisco

Vermeil Getty Images

Former Eagles, Rams and Chiefs head coach Dick Vermeil doesn’t care for the way Jim Harbaugh was treated on the way out the door in San Francisco.

Vermeil said on PFT Live that the 49ers should have shown enough respect for the work Harbaugh did to hold onto him.

“San Francisco was a mess before Jim Harbaugh took over. He straightened it out,” Vermeil said. “To me, that should never happen.”

Vermeil believes that if the 49ers’ management is committed to winning, then the 49ers need to find a way to make things work with a successful coach like Harbaugh.

“To me, it’s poor management. It’s probably more personal than anything. But if you’re mature you’ve got to be able to work those things out,” Vermeil said.

The 49ers’ management couldn’t work things out with Harbaugh. If Jim Tomsula doesn’t have the kind of success in San Francisco that Harbaugh did, plenty of San Francisco fans will agree with Vermeil, and blame owner Jed York and General Manager Trent Baalke for poorly managing Harbaugh’s departure.

Permalink 69 Comments Feed for comments Back to top

Chargers add Mike Nolan as linebackers coach

Mike Nolan AP

The Chargers added some experience to their coaching staff, landing former Falcons defensive coordinator Mike Nolan to coach their linebackers.

He replaces Joe Barry, who left to become Washington’s defensive coordinator.

“Mike is a tremendous coach with a wealth of experience and he’ll be a great addition to our coaching staff,” head coach Mike McCoy. “I’ve known him for many years having coached both with him and against him and it’s great to have him here with us with the Chargers.”

Nolan has 28 years of coaching experience, with 17 in the NFL and a largely unfortunate stint as the head coach of the 49ers.

He was the defensive coordinator in Denver in 2009, when McCoy was the Broncos offensive coordinator.

Permalink 8 Comments Feed for comments Back to top