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NFL morning after: Filling in the playoff picture

Detroit Lions v Chicago Bears Getty Images

Ten NFL Sundays down and seven to go, and I know who’s making the playoffs.

OK, I might be wrong about a few, and in seven weeks you might remind me of this column and point out all the places where I was wrong and make me eat my words. But I actually think that as you go through the NFL standings right now, you can get a pretty accurate picture of how the final standings are going to look seven weeks from now. Let’s go through it:

NFC East: Dallas. Despite Sunday night’s massacre in New Orleans, I still favor the 5-5 Cowboys over the 5-5 Eagles, largely because the Cowboys have already won at Philadelphia. The Cowboys and Eagles meet in Week 17 in Dallas, and I think the Cowboys will complete the season sweep and seal the division title on the last day of the season.

NFC North: Detroit. The Lions’ win over the Bears gives Detroit a one-game lead, and considering how easy the Lions’ schedule is, plus the fact that the Packers are down to Scott Tolzien at quarterback, we can pencil in the Lions to win the North.

NFC South: New Orleans. The 7-2 Saints, whose offense looked amazing on Sunday night in Dallas, will hold off the 6-3 Panthers.

NFC West: Seattle. After San Francisco lost to Carolina on Sunday, the Seahawks have a two-game lead over the 49ers, and Seattle has a head-to-head win over San Francisco as well. This is Seattle’s division.

NFC wild cards: Carolina and San Francisco. The 49ers and Panthers are currently a game ahead of the pack at 6-3, and I’ll be shocked if they don’t end up as the two NFC wild card teams. The 5-4 Bears, Packers and Cardinals are all in the mix, as are the 5-5 Eagles, but the Panthers and 49ers are pretty clearly the two best in the wild card chase.

AFC East: New England. The Patriots lead the Jets by two games in the standings and will win this division for an amazing 11th time in Tom Brady’s 12 years as their starting quarterback.

AFC North: Cincinnati. The Bengals missed a golden opportunity to put the division away on Sunday in Baltimore, but they’re still a game and a half ahead, and they’re going to win this division.

AFC South: Indianapolis. The Colts looked terrible against the Rams on Sunday, but Indianapolis is still two games ahead of Tennessee, and Houston and Jacksonville have no shot. It’s the Colts by default.

AFC West: Denver. This is the only division that I don’t think the current first-place team will win. I expect the 8-1 Broncos to sweep the 9-0 Chiefs, winning this week in Denver and then winning in Kansas City in Week 13, and Denver will win this division.

AFC wild cards: Kansas City and New York Jets. The second-place team in the AFC West will be the top wild card team, so let’s pencil the Chiefs in for that spot. The biggest question mark on the board is the sixth and final AFC playoff spot: As of right now the Jets would get it, and I think they’ll hold onto it holding off the Dolphins, Chargers, Browns, Ravens and Titans.

A lot can change in the next seven weeks, especially if a key player is injured. (It’s worth noting that before Aaron Rodgers went down, I thought the Packers had a very good chance of getting to the Super Bowl, and now I’m picking them to miss the playoffs.) But I’m feeling pretty confident that I’ve got this whole playoff picture figured out. Here are the rest of my observations from Sunday:

Another terrible game for Trent Richardson. With five carries for two yards in Sunday’s loss to the Rams, Richardson now has 88 carries for 250 yards, an average of 2.8 yards a carry, in seven games as a Colt. It’s looking more and more like the Browns fleeced the Colts when Indianapolis shipped a first-round draft pick to Cleveland in the Richardson trade.

Another terrible game for Ray Rice, too. Rice had 18 carries for 30 yards in the Ravens’ win over the Bengals on Sunday. He’s now averaging 2.5 yards a carry this season. That’s a stunningly bad average for a three-time Pro Bowler who had never averaged less than 4.0 yards a carry in any season of his career before. Rice has no room to run behind a terrible Baltimore offensive line.

The Seahawks’ secondary is sensational against tight ends. One of the things that really stands out when you watch Seattle is the way strong safety Kam Chancellor and middle linebacker Bobby Wagner cover tight ends. On Sunday Seattle played one of the best tight ends in the league, Atlanta’s Tony Gonzalez, and totally kept him in check: Gonzalez didn’t catch his first pass until it was basically garbage time, with the score 26-3 Seattle in the third quarter, and Gonzalez finished the day with just three catches for 29 yards.

Clay Matthews looked like Art Jimmerson at UFC 1. Matthews is playing with a massive club on his broken right hand. He’s a tough guy for wanting to be out there, but he looked like he was struggling and had a quiet day in the Packers’ loss.

That’s the Tavon Austin the Rams thought they were drafting. Through the first nine weeks of the season, Austin looked like one of the NFL’s more disappointing rookies, averaging just 6.7 yards a catch. On Sunday, Austin had touchdown catches of 81 and 57 yards and threw in a 98-yard touchdown on a punt return as well. I still have my doubts that Rams offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer is the right guy to find ways to get Austin the ball in space consistently, and it’s worth pointing out that Schottenheimer only called four plays for Austin (three passes, one run) all game on Sunday. But there’s no doubt that Austin has game-breaking talent.

Welcome back, Jake Ballard. It was nice to see Ballard catch a pass for the Cardinals on Sunday in his first live game action since the Super Bowl almost two years ago. As the Giants’ starting tight end in that Super Bowl, Ballard suffered a major knee injury in the game and hadn’t been able to get all the way back to 100 percent healthy for more than a year. Both the Giants and the Patriots released Ballard, but he signed with the Cardinals last week and is already contributing to the offense.

Giovani Bernard has some learning to do. Bernard, the Bengals’ rookie running back, is a superb young talent who’s a threat to break off a long gain every time he touches the ball. But he needs to learn that there are times when you just need to lower your shoulders and run straight ahead, and one of those times is when you get the ball on fourth-and-2 in overtime. Bernard tried to dance around after catching a swing pass from Andy Dalton, and he ended up losing 11 yards. Those 11 yards helped the Ravens greatly when they won the game with a 46-yard field goal on the next possession.

What happened to Colin Kaepernick? The 49ers’ quarterback was awful against the Panthers on Sunday. Since throwing for 412 yards in Week One, he’s only reached 200 passing yards once. On Sunday he completed 11 of 22 passes for 91 yards, with no touchdowns and one interception.

Did the Jaguars just cost themselves the No. 1 pick? It’s nice that Jacksonville won a game and assured itself of avoiding the fate of the 0-16 Lions of 2008. But did the Jags cost themselves the chance to draft their franchise quarterback of the future (maybe Oregon’s Marcus Mariota or Louisville’s Teddy Bridgewater) with the first overall pick in the 2014 NFL draft? Actually, I don’t think so. Looking at the rest of the schedule, I think there’s still a good chance the Jags will finish 1-15. And while the Buccaneers are currently winless, they have a few winnable games the rest of the way and should finish more like 2-14 or 3-13. The Jaguars are so far out of the playoff race that they can’t even see the leaders, but they’re still in the pole position in the race for the No. 1 overall pick.

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Agent: Seahawks re-sign Demarcus Dobbs

Seattle Seahawks v San Francisco 49ers Getty Images

The Seahawks have retained one of the NFL’s more versatile backup defensive linemen.

The club has re-signed defensive end Demarcus Dobbs, agent Wesley Spencer announced on Twitter.

Dobbs (6-2, 282) appeared in four regular season games and three postseason games for Seattle after being claimed on waivers from San Francisco in November. Overall, the 27-year-old Dobbs has notched 37 tackles in 49 regular season games since entering the NFL in 2011.

In addition to playing defensive end, Dobbs can also play tight end in a pinch. The 49ers tried him on offense earlier in his career, though defense has been his job for the bulk of his NFL experience.

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Draft status doesn’t matter, Anderson tops Ball on Broncos’ depth chart

C.J. Anderson AP

In 2013, the Broncos used a second-round draft pick on Montee Ball, and signed C.J. Anderson as an undrafted free agent. Two years later, there’s little doubt which of them is the better running back — and it’s not the one everyone thought heading into the draft.

Broncos coach Gary Kubiak has confirmed that he views Anderson as the starter heading into Organized Team Activities.

“He made a big jump as a player, and I think he’s earned the right to walk in to the offseason program — the OTAs — and line up as our starter,” Kubiak said. “But he’s got to continue to earn it on a daily basis. I think he’s shown he has all the ability to be an excellent starter in this league, so we’re really looking forward to working with him.”

So where does that leave Ball? Splitting backup reps with Ronnie Hillman, a 2012 third-round pick. Kubiak said both Ball and Hillman will get their chances, but Anderson is the man right now.

“I think all three of those guys . . . have all kind of had their little spurts of success with the club when they’ve had their opportunity,” Kubiak said. “But they’re all young. Who’s going to be the bell cow, who’s going to play every down, who’s going to be the three-down player, they’ve got to sort that out. C.J. has shown the flashes of doing that.”

With the draft just a month away, the Broncos may be a cautionary tale for teams thinking about spending high picks on running backs. It’s the undrafted Anderson who’s atop the Broncos’ depth chart, and a second-round pick and a third-round pick competing to back him up.

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Report: “Spirited debate” about where Koa Misi will play in Miami

Miami Dolphins v Chicago Bears Getty Images

The Dolphins parted ways with a pair of linebackers this offseason when they released Phillip Wheeler and traded Dannell Ellerbe and there’s reportedly some difference of opinion within the organization about other changes at the position.

Koa Misi moved to middle linebacker last season and made 11 starts at the position for the Dolphins. Misi had 64 tackles and a sack in those appearances and Adam Beasley of the Miami Herald reports that head coach Joe Philbin said last week that “as of right now” Misi will remain at the position next season.

Defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle is reportedly on board with that, while the personnel department feels differently. Per Beasley, they’d like Kelvin Sheppard to get a shot in the middle while Misi returns to his previous spot on the outside of the defense. Misi started 26 games there in 2012 and 2013 and would likely remain on the first team on the strong side if he does move.

Jelani Jenkins is set for one outside spot, but the Dolphins need to round out their linebacking group over the rest of the offseason. Misi’s ability to play either spot gives them some flexibility about how to go about doing that, although that flexibility may not be needed if the personnel guys are set on pushing him to the outside.

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Dixon accused officers of racial bias

Dixon AP

Saints cornerback Brian Dixon was arrested early Sunday after an incident involving a moped.  Specifically, he was arrested for resisting arrest.  It still remains unclear what he was being arrested for when he allegedly resisted arrest.

Nick Underhill of the New Orleans Advocate has obtained the police report.

According to the report, police officers saw Dixon “splitting lanes” and driving down the center of the road, eventually swerving and cutting off another vehicle.

The officers contend that Dixon became “belligerent” after he learned that he’d be getting a ticket, eventually saying “just give me my ticket so I can get the f–k out of here.”

According to the report, Dixon’s “imposing size, stature, and weight, as well as the defendant’s agitated state” resulted in an order to sit on a curb.  (He’s listed as six feet and 195 pounds, which would nearly qualify me as having “imposing size, stature, and weight.”)  Dixon refused, instead taking a step toward the officer.

An officer then began to place Dixon under arrest.  He allegedly tensed his body and pulled away from the officer.

“Let me go,” Dixon allegedly said.  “You’re just doing this because I’m a black man with dreads and I look like a criminal. I’m not a criminal.”

While being taken in custody, Dixon said, “I’m not a criminal.  I give so much to this community.  I’m an NFL player.  Let me call my agent.”

The Saints acknowledged that they are aware of the incident but had no further comment on Dixon, who earned a roster spot last year despite being undrafted.

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Brandon Magee gets advice from Bo Jackson

Magee AP

Officially, former Buccaneers linebacker Brandon Magee remains committed to football.  Unofficially, he’s giving baseball a try — in spring training with the Red Sox.

As he does, Magee is heeding advice from one of the last great two-sport stars, Bo Jackson.

“Some of them I can tell you, some of them I won’t,” Magee said Sunday regarding the pointers he has gotten from Jackson, via Rick Weber of ESPN.com.  “He’s a great guy.  He’s been here before.  He gives me encouragement all the times I talked to him.  He just told me to stay humble and try to keep working hard and outwork everybody out here.  That’s his main key.”

While he still may be interested in playing football, Magee seems to be all in with baseball, at least for now.

“Every day, I’m learning something new,” Magee said, via Weber.  “I’m getting adjusted to it.  It’s a lot different than playing football.  You’ve got a lot flexibility things I’m working on — getting my arm ready, getting my swing right.  I’m enjoying every minute.

“It’s been 90 feet every day so far.  I think starting tomorrow we’re going to ramp it up even more — taking four rounds of BP tomorrow.  So I’m excited about that.”

So how focused is Magee on football?

“I’m just focusing on spring training,” Magee said.  “And I take it one at a time.  When I’m playing football, it’s to help the team win.  When I’m playing baseball, I’m focusing on getting better, helping the team win.  Now I’m just focusing on getting better every day.”

Still, Magee needs to eventually pick a lane.  As Jackson said last year, times have changed since he played baseball and football at the highest levels.  He conceded that he probably wouldn’t be able to pull off playing both sports in 2015.

Currently, the lane necessarily is baseball, because no NFL team has given him a job.

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NFL to begin research Monday into enhanced camera system

Pylon Getty Images

Whatever Patriots coach Bill Belichick said last week in Arizona, it worked.  The NFL will soon be taking a closer look at the use of fixed cameras during games, at the goal line and elsewhere.

Soon as in very soon.  Albert Breer of NFL Media reports that the league will commence research and development on Monday regarding Belichick’s proposal to add more cameras.

Breer says that the league specifically is looking for “the right technology and then how to best integrate the cameras into the replay system that will work in all 31 stadiums.”

Cost has been identified as a reason for not installing more cameras, a red herring that caused Belichick to go blue (unless he didn’t).  But cost surely isn’t the actual issue, especially since the technology easily can become a revenue stream with the slapping of a logo on the pylon and/or the granting to GoPro of a license to call itself the Official Action Camera of the NFL, or some similar foofy marketing concoction.

The more practical challenge from the placement of cameras in pylons comes from the presence of 22 players and seven officials on the field, who can obscure what otherwise would be a clear view of action on the field.  It also will become important for the officials to not place ever further reliance on the availability of visual evidence when making calls in real time, erring one way or the other with the assumption that any errors can be rectified by replay.

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Tisch says St. Louis, Oakland, San Diego are “kind of in the fourth quarter”

Tisch Getty Images

When it comes to Los Angeles, the NFL has a tough balancing act on its hands.  The desire to go to L.A. on one side, the importance of giving the cities where the potential L.A. franchises currently play a fair chance at keeping them on the other.

Ultimately, one or two current NFL cities will be losing their teams.  And while the NFL tries to say all the right things (presumably in order to prevent three stadiums from being empty or close to it in 2015), the cat is far enough out of the bag to make it clear that St. Louis, Oakland, and/or San Diego will be losing their franchises, as soon as next year.

This could come to a vote in a year,” Giants co-owner Steve Tisch said at the league meetings, via Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  Tisch added that the league has made it “very clear” that those three cities must “get their proposals to their respective teams sooner rather than later.”

“Is it crunch time? Is it a two-minute warning yet? No,” Tisch said, via Thomas.  “But . . . those three cities are kind of in the fourth quarter.”

As Thomas points out, St. Louis seems to be much farther along in the process than Oakland or San Diego.  But owner Stan Kroenke remains, as Thomas characterizes it, on a “bullet train” to L.A.

Which makes the theory that has gathered momentum in recent weeks the most sensible one yet:  The Rams and Chargers go to L.A., and the Raiders slide from Oakland to St. Louis.  Which will mean that only two cities will lose the NFL, but that three teams will be getting new stadiums.

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Russell Wilson: Contract situation will work out

Russell Wilson AP

Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson is heading into the final season of his contract, but he doesn’t sound overly concerned about getting a new deal done.

“In terms of my contract, I don’t really talk about that kind of stuff,” Wilson said, via the Everett Herald. “I love the game of football. I love playing the game of football. I try to put my best foot forward and I want to be the best to ever play the game. That’s the way I look at it. I’ve been fortunate enough to win a lot of games at such a young age and to be able to play with some great guys and have some great comeback wins and win a Super Bowl, and go to back to back Super Bowls. It’s been special. So that’s what I focus on. I focus on the next opportunity that I have. The rest will come. I believe God is going to bless me. I don’t know what’s going to happen, but I trust always. And I trust it’s going to work out the way it’s supposed to.”

The Seahawks get Wilson for this year at the bargain salary of $1.5 million. If they can’t get a deal done beyond this year, however, the only way they could ensure he doesn’t leave is to franchise him at a number approaching $20 million.

Franchising Wilson is exactly what they’ll do if they have to, but they’d prefer to get a deal done before it comes to that. Wilson sounds like he’s ready for whatever happens: Ready to sign if the right deal comes, or ready to wait if he’s not satisfied with what the Seahawks are offering.

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Dixon arrested after moped incident

Moped Getty Images

Saints cornerback Brian Dixon was arrested for resisting arrest, but not for anything else.  Which raises a legitimate question about what he was being arrested for when he resisted arrest.

That logic still seems to be lost on the authorities in South Beach, but Nick Underhill of the New Orleans Advocate offers some additional details about the incident.

Per Underhill, police say Dixon was driving a moped.  A police officer pulled him over.  Dixon then questioned the officer.  And the officer arrested Dixon.

Without knowing what Dixon said, it’s hard to know whether the arrest was justified.  It’s nevertheless odd that Dixon was arrested for resisting an arrest that still has not been specified.

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Packers to remain “smart” about how they use Eddie Lacy

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The Packers wanted Eddie Lacy to show he could be an effective three-down running back in 2014 and Lacy was successful in that effort.

Lacy averaged over 10 yards a catch on 42 receptions and did a solid job as a pass blocker in his second NFL season, leaving coach Mike McCarthy without too much to tell Lacy about where to improve heading into the 2015 season. The conversation will instead be about continuing to use Lacy in a way that he can be an effective offensive force without putting him at risk of overuse over the course of the season.

McCarthy said he thought the team was “really smart” in how they used Lacy last season. He ran the ball 246 times in the regular season, good for 13th in the league, and it sounds like McCarthy would be happy with a similar total next season.

“I go back to past experience,” McCarthy said, via the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. “I went through this, really. Ricky Williams [who was with the Saints when McCarthy was on New Orleans’s staff] was the first running back that I went through the how-many-attempts, how-many-runs [discussion]. It’s a learning experience. I’m conscientious of how many times each guy touches the ball, how much each guy plays, especially the running back. I think you have to be smart there.”

Lacy added 40 more carries while continuing to run well in the postseason, which makes it tough to argue with the contention that the team came up with a good plan for their top running back. As long as Lacy is healthy, they should be able to find the same formula this time around.

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League, Irsay still silent on Indiana law

Irsay AP

The NFL still hasn’t said a word about a law that passed last week in Indiana.  Last year, when a similar law nearly passed in Arizona, the league said plenty publicly — and reportedly was privately considering moving Super Bowl XLIX, with Tampa Bay being the first option.

The league has remained silent regarding the Indiana law even as hundreds rallied Saturday against the law that prohibits the placement of a “substantial burden” on the ability of a person, an institution, a business, or an association’s ability to follow his or her religious beliefs.  The provision has been interpreted as permitting discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation.

Indiana Governor Mike Pence says a bill clarifying the new law is now in the works.

“I just can’t account for the hostility that’s been directed at our state,” Pence said, via the Associated Press.  “I’ve been taken aback by the mischaracterizations from outside the state of Indiana about what is in this bill.”

However it plays out, the NFL’s silence in 2015 makes little sense, given the noise it made in 2014 when Arizona was poised to do the same thing.

Meanwhile, the Colts have said nothing, either.  Which seems a little odd, given the fairly high profile owner Jim Irsay has assumed on Twitter.  Though he recently has been tweeting about roster moves and the league meetings, Irsay hasn’t said a word via Twitter for the last six days.

If the league had said nothing a year ago regarding Arizona, saying nothing now wouldn’t be so glaring.  But if the league were indeed planning in 2014 to pull the plug on a Super Bowl due to be played in a matter of months, complete silence in 2015 makes no sense.

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Erin Henderson set for visit with Jets

Jermaine Gresham, Erin Henderson AP

Erin Henderson’s search for a chance to resume his NFL career will be heading to New Jersey.

Henderson met with the 49ers last week after sitting out the entire 2014 season following his release in Minnesota, but didn’t sign a contract with the team. The Niners have moved on to a scheduled meeting with Lance Briggs and Henderson’s agent says his client is moving on to a meeting with the Jets.

Jim Chapman told Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee that Henderson has scheduled a visit with the AFC East club. The Jets re-signed David Harris as free agency opened and have Demario Davis back as well, which leaves Henderson as a depth option at inside linebacker.

The Vikings dropped Henderson last February after a pair of arrests for drunk driving. He started 33 games during his final three seasons with the Vikings and was a fairly effective player before his off-field trouble led to his on-field hiatus.

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Saints cornerback arrested in Miami Beach

Dixon Getty Images

Saints cornerback Brian Dixon has been arrested in Miami Beach for resisting arrest without violence.  Per multiple sources, the arrest occurred early this morning.

It’s unclear why Dixon was being arrested in the first place.  He’s charged only with resisting arrest.

The Saints will now have to decide whether to resist the temptation to sever ties with Dixon, who was undrafted in 2014 coming out of Northwest Missouri State.

UPDATE 12:24 p.m. ET:  Dixon reportedly was arrested after being pulled over while driving a moped.

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Mike Tomlin: We have the goods to be NFL’s best offense

Wild Card Playoffs - Baltimore Ravens v Pittsburgh Steelers Getty Images

The Steelers averaged 27.2 points per game last season, which was good enough for seventh place in the NFL and a first place finish in the AFC North.

Things looked even better once wide receiver Martavis Bryant was plugged into the lineup after missing the first six games. The Steelers jumped to 31.2 points per game, a number that would have ranked first in the league if they’d done it over the course of all 16 contests. With Bryant set for a bigger role from the outset in 2015 and the likes of Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell and Ben Roethlisberger also on hand, coach Mike Tomlin thinks the stage is set for the Steelers to be the league’s top offense.

“My expectation is they’re capable of being the very best because we’ve got the goods,” Tomlin said, via the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. “We’ve got guys that are capable. We’ve got guys that know what they’re doing. We’ve got guys that played together for an extended period of time now. So that’s a reasonable expectation.”

If the Steelers can’t get their defense on a better track, they’ll need their offense to be at least as good as it was in 2014 to book another trip to the postseason. That’s a change from the familiar balance in Pittsburgh, but it’s one that the Steelers will continue to embrace as long it represents their best path to success.

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Sealver Siliga still in walking boot after foot surgery

Super Bowl XLIX - New England Patriots v Seattle Seahawks Getty Images

The Patriots played most of last season without defensive tackle Sealver Siliga in the lineup, but they made good use of him once he returned from injured reserve late in the year.

Siliga started the final three games of the regular season and all three New England postseason victories, recording 31 tackles and a pair of sacks on the way to a Super Bowl title. Siliga seems likely to remain in that spot come next season as long as he’s healthy.

Right now, Siliga isn’t quite there. The foot injury that kept Siliga out for nine games wasn’t totally healed, though, and he had surgery after the season to set things right. Mike Reiss of ESPNBoston.com reports Siliga is still using a walking boot as he recovers from the operation. There’s no word on whether he’ll continue to be wearing it when the team starts OTAs, but it seems a good bet that Siliga will be somewhat limited during offseason work.

With Vince Wilfork now in Houston, Siliga and Alan Branch are the biggest bodies on the interior of the defensive line in New England. They could add another option in the draft and may have to look for more help if Siliga’s foot issue continues to linger.

 

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