Patriots aren’t often underdogs, but when they are, look out

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The Panthers, as we noted earlier this week in an interview with wideout Steve Smith, are favored against the Patriots on Monday night.

Indeed, this continues to be the case. As of this afternoon, the Panthers are favored by as many as three points as multiple Nevada sports books, according to the “The Linemakers” of Sporting News.

That the Panthers are favored is noteworthy for a couple reasons. For starters, it’s a clear sign of respect for 6-3 Carolina, which has won five straight games. (The Panthers have beaten the point spread in all of those wins, too.)

There’s also the matter of the Patriots not often finding themselves as underdogs. They have been favored in all but one game this season.

Oh, there’s one more thing about the Patriots as underdogs: they usually do quite well when not playing the role of favorite.

Since 2010, the Patriots have been underdogs just five times, according to data from Marc Lawrence’s 2013 Stat and Log Book.

In four of those games, they have won outright, and in every instance, they have beaten the point spread.

In 2010, the Patriots (+2.5) won at San Diego in Week Seven. Three weeks later, the Pats (+4.5) knocked off Pittsburgh at Heinz Field.

In 2011, the Pats (+3) defeated the Jets by 21 points at MetLife Stadium.

In 2012, the Ravens (-2.5) defeated the visiting Patriots by just one point.

Finally, earlier this season, the Patriots (+3) defeated the Falcons in Atlanta.

For those who want to go back even further, you’ll find that the Patriots, though winless as underdogs in five tries in 2008 through 2009, did beat the spread three times in those games.

There’s a lot to like about how the Panthers have played of late. And look, some historical trends don’t mean a lot when it comes to picking winners. But we can say this with confidence: the Patriots aren’t anybody’s patsies as underdogs.

34 responses to “Patriots aren’t often underdogs, but when they are, look out

  1. This is great for the people in Nevada, but of not much use for the rest of us in the other 49 states since gambling is illegal and thus there is absolutely no betting on football.

  2. There’s nothing I like more than to see the look on Bill’s face when his teams getting beat, please don’t disappoint.

  3. the carolina top-ranked nfc defense is for real. carolina will ride it to the playoffs and maybe even an nfc south div crown.

    carolina will beat up new eng en route to win. brady will get banged around pretty good and lose his composure. he could even get injured.

  4. Since 2010 the Pats are 24-1 in the second half of the regular season including 11-0 on the road ! Panthers will get crushed !

  5. I know what hostory says but the numbers this year say that the Panthers have a vastly superior defense and are playing at home. Pats seem to be coming on but I still like the Panthers for the win. That defense has been playing lights out.

  6. Being the home team gets you -3, that’s the baseline, then they adjust the spread from there bases on other factors. So technically the Patriots aren’t underdogs, they are either evenly matched or very slight favorites.

  7. Seattle
    Buffalo
    New York
    Arizona
    Minnesota
    St. Louis
    Tampa Bay
    Atlanta
    San Francisco………. Let’s not get too carried away on Carolina’s defense not of the teams they played are in the top half of the league offensively…….

  8. I’d be suprised if anyone gets crushed. This should be a great gm, really looking forward to it. Not really in the prediction business, but I like the Pats chances coming off a bye, with some of their injured pieces getting back in the mix.

  9. Please…

    Don’t pretend that the low character new england patriots are a AFC Championship caliber team.

    The Hugh Millen Era has returned.

  10. The way to beat the Pats is to pressure Brady. That’s the way it has been for several years now. That’s why the Pats are going to get beat Monday night. Tom….. meet Greg Hardy & Company!

  11. Aww, look at all the haters they came back out again. All the “tainted rings” and the “Pats are finished” talk is really just hilarious. Not one Pats article can be written on here without all these ridiculous comments thrown around.

    They get dumber and more ridiculous each time. People have nothing better to do than to wish bad things happen to the Patriots. It’s so sad, oh we’ll stay classy haters. You always make me laugh. If it was so easy to best the Pats they wouldn’t have the best record in the league since 2001.

  12. I wonder if the Nevada sports book knows that cam already beat a team win a winning record this year, he only does it once a season, they should take that into consideration when making the lines. Everyone know the Panthers only beat the bad teams

  13. doctorrustbelt says:
    Nov 16, 2013 4:30 PM
    Please…

    Don’t pretend that the low character new england patriots are a AFC Championship caliber team.

    The Hugh Millen Era has returned.

    ————————————————–

    Say what???
    Never knew the Patriots to be 7-2 in the Hugh Millen…but maybe I’m missing something.

  14. If the panthers put consistent pressure on Brady he will crumble like a little school girl & Panthers will be victorious. Go Panthers!!

    Patriots 7-3
    Jets 6-4 One game back…

  15. Any team feels like it won the Super Bowl whenever they beat the pats. It’s perverse, but it’s nice to see the haters in full force. When the haters quit, then the pats has become irrelevant.Even dubbed as the underdog, the pats is still THE team to beat. Even pats fans think that they are the underdogs. It just not add up. But amazingly, they win. The game against the New Orleans is a head scratcher. I’ll be wary of oddsmakers.—the only sure thing is, these two teams will be awesome to watch.

  16. If Cam plays the way he did last week the Panther’s are in trouble. Carolina’s D has been awesome but no way they can hold Brady to 9 points. Panthers need 21+ points to have a chance to win this one. No better time for Cam to have a break out game than now.

  17. “This is great for the people in Nevada, but of not much use for the rest of us in the other 49 states since gambling is illegal and thus there is absolutely no betting on football.”

    All it took me was 20 minutes and a western union transfer. Unless of course you are scared of authority

  18. There is really only one truly great organization in the NFL and that’s The New England Patriots. Everyone else is vying for 2nd place. Sure, some of them have their moments, but nobody can keep it up as consistently as New England. A wise man simply recognizes this as fact and does not waste his energy opposing what the universe holds as true.

  19. Not sure if Carolina’s offense can put up enough points to keep New England out of it for long. They have a great running game and that’s going to be the key against the Pats poor run defense. The variable is Belichek and Brady. Coming off the bye and their historic dominance against NFC teams can not be overlooked. Don’t forget the turnover game. Pats create turnovers in every game which creates extra possessions. Should come down to the final possession.

  20. “briang123 says:
    not much use for the rest of us in the other 49 states since gambling is illegal and thus there is absolutely no betting on football”

    Brian is absolutely right. There is no such activity outside of Vegas, so completely irrelevant.

    That said, the patriots as dogs are always great on the ML

  21. It’s amazing how many people are not educated on local laws.

    Online “casino gambling” is illegal in most states. However, some states such as Mississippi and others do not have online sports gambling listed under their online casino laws. Therefore, online betting on sports is legal.

    So, yes the points made in this article are valid to many people outside of Nevada.

  22. Panthers by 40.

    The Patriots and Brady really are nothing without Spygate. They’ve proven it again and again and again and always will.

  23. brazzz01 says:Nov 18, 2013 1:57 PM

    Panthers by 40.

    The Patriots and Brady really are nothing without Spygate. They’ve proven it again and again and again and always will.

    —————

    You said it, so it must be true.

  24. Ok , here is the deal ‘Pat’s win. Kc has a great defense and manning picked them apart with a bad ankle , That said Brady will do the same ‘ so go to vegas on a plane and bet on pats money line and you will be happy on the way home. 🐢🐢🐢🐢🐢🐢🐢🐢🐢🐢😎

  25. I really don’t think who is betting more money on who really has anything to do with who wins. I prefer to ponder questions like…

    -Do the Panthers run roughshod over the Pats front 7 missing half its starters for 200 yards rushing?
    -With 15 days to plan, has BB come up with a way to solve our defense?
    -Who gets the unsportsmanlike conduct penalty first, Smith or Talib?
    -Do our DBs, who no one has ever heard of but keep coming up big week after week, hold down Amendola & Dobson?
    -Isn’t Gronk vs Kuechly enough of a reason to shut the entire country down for 3 hours? (I vote yes.)

    I am very confident that identifying the team that had the most money bet on them will have zero impact on any of these questions.

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