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Patriots aren’t often underdogs, but when they are, look out

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The Panthers, as we noted earlier this week in an interview with wideout Steve Smith, are favored against the Patriots on Monday night.

Indeed, this continues to be the case. As of this afternoon, the Panthers are favored by as many as three points as multiple Nevada sports books, according to the “The Linemakers” of Sporting News.

That the Panthers are favored is noteworthy for a couple reasons. For starters, it’s a clear sign of respect for 6-3 Carolina, which has won five straight games. (The Panthers have beaten the point spread in all of those wins, too.)

There’s also the matter of the Patriots not often finding themselves as underdogs. They have been favored in all but one game this season.

Oh, there’s one more thing about the Patriots as underdogs: they usually do quite well when not playing the role of favorite.

Since 2010, the Patriots have been underdogs just five times, according to data from Marc Lawrence’s 2013 Stat and Log Book.

In four of those games, they have won outright, and in every instance, they have beaten the point spread.

In 2010, the Patriots (+2.5) won at San Diego in Week Seven. Three weeks later, the Pats (+4.5) knocked off Pittsburgh at Heinz Field.

In 2011, the Pats (+3) defeated the Jets by 21 points at MetLife Stadium.

In 2012, the Ravens (-2.5) defeated the visiting Patriots by just one point.

Finally, earlier this season, the Patriots (+3) defeated the Falcons in Atlanta.

For those who want to go back even further, you’ll find that the Patriots, though winless as underdogs in five tries in 2008 through 2009, did beat the spread three times in those games.

There’s a lot to like about how the Panthers have played of late. And look, some historical trends don’t mean a lot when it comes to picking winners. But we can say this with confidence: the Patriots aren’t anybody’s patsies as underdogs.

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34 Responses to “Patriots aren’t often underdogs, but when they are, look out”
  1. briang123 says: Nov 16, 2013 3:12 PM

    This is great for the people in Nevada, but of not much use for the rest of us in the other 49 states since gambling is illegal and thus there is absolutely no betting on football.

  2. pisano says: Nov 16, 2013 3:16 PM

    There’s nothing I like more than to see the look on Bill’s face when his teams getting beat, please don’t disappoint.

  3. chrisk61 says: Nov 16, 2013 3:26 PM

    the carolina top-ranked nfc defense is for real. carolina will ride it to the playoffs and maybe even an nfc south div crown.

    carolina will beat up new eng en route to win. brady will get banged around pretty good and lose his composure. he could even get injured.

  4. mattwalshvideo says: Nov 16, 2013 3:29 PM

    Best time to break out the cameras.

  5. patsdominate says: Nov 16, 2013 3:36 PM

    Since 2010 the Pats are 24-1 in the second half of the regular season including 11-0 on the road ! Panthers will get crushed !

  6. edavidberg says: Nov 16, 2013 4:01 PM

    I know what hostory says but the numbers this year say that the Panthers have a vastly superior defense and are playing at home. Pats seem to be coming on but I still like the Panthers for the win. That defense has been playing lights out.

  7. notoriousjebus says: Nov 16, 2013 4:03 PM

    Being the home team gets you -3, that’s the baseline, then they adjust the spread from there bases on other factors. So technically the Patriots aren’t underdogs, they are either evenly matched or very slight favorites.

  8. patsdominate says: Nov 16, 2013 4:13 PM

    New York
    St. Louis
    Tampa Bay
    San Francisco………. Let’s not get too carried away on Carolina’s defense not of the teams they played are in the top half of the league offensively…….

  9. qdog112 says: Nov 16, 2013 4:15 PM

    This is 2013. History does not play a part in this game.

  10. tedmurph says: Nov 16, 2013 4:19 PM

    I’d be suprised if anyone gets crushed. This should be a great gm, really looking forward to it. Not really in the prediction business, but I like the Pats chances coming off a bye, with some of their injured pieces getting back in the mix.

  11. doctorrustbelt says: Nov 16, 2013 4:30 PM


    Don’t pretend that the low character new england patriots are a AFC Championship caliber team.

    The Hugh Millen Era has returned.

  12. corkspop says: Nov 16, 2013 4:35 PM

    The way to beat the Pats is to pressure Brady. That’s the way it has been for several years now. That’s why the Pats are going to get beat Monday night. Tom….. meet Greg Hardy & Company!

  13. 3taintedchampionships2biglosses says: Nov 16, 2013 4:40 PM

    I’m sure the outcome has already been decided and a few bad calls will go against carolina at the end of the game. The cheating this season by the patriots has been at an all time high.

  14. Great Caesar's Ghost says: Nov 16, 2013 4:48 PM

    Now that the Packers’ season is on the brink of disaster, I’m making Carolina my pet team. Go Riverboat Ron!

  15. tedmurph says: Nov 16, 2013 4:49 PM

    Leave it to a Bengal fan to bring up character issues. Overwhelmed by the credibility.

  16. bigwii says: Nov 16, 2013 5:15 PM

    Aww, look at all the haters they came back out again. All the “tainted rings” and the “Pats are finished” talk is really just hilarious. Not one Pats article can be written on here without all these ridiculous comments thrown around.

    They get dumber and more ridiculous each time. People have nothing better to do than to wish bad things happen to the Patriots. It’s so sad, oh we’ll stay classy haters. You always make me laugh. If it was so easy to best the Pats they wouldn’t have the best record in the league since 2001.

  17. scmems07 says: Nov 16, 2013 5:22 PM

    I wonder if the Nevada sports book knows that cam already beat a team win a winning record this year, he only does it once a season, they should take that into consideration when making the lines. Everyone know the Panthers only beat the bad teams

  18. marcuswelby1 says: Nov 16, 2013 5:29 PM

    doctorrustbelt says:
    Nov 16, 2013 4:30 PM

    Don’t pretend that the low character new england patriots are a AFC Championship caliber team.

    The Hugh Millen Era has returned.


    Say what???
    Never knew the Patriots to be 7-2 in the Hugh Millen…but maybe I’m missing something.

  19. jetsjetsjetsnow says: Nov 16, 2013 5:31 PM

    If the panthers put consistent pressure on Brady he will crumble like a little school girl & Panthers will be victorious. Go Panthers!!

    Patriots 7-3
    Jets 6-4 One game back…

  20. RE LEE says: Nov 16, 2013 7:08 PM

    Any team feels like it won the Super Bowl whenever they beat the pats. It’s perverse, but it’s nice to see the haters in full force. When the haters quit, then the pats has become irrelevant.Even dubbed as the underdog, the pats is still THE team to beat. Even pats fans think that they are the underdogs. It just not add up. But amazingly, they win. The game against the New Orleans is a head scratcher. I’ll be wary of oddsmakers.—the only sure thing is, these two teams will be awesome to watch.

  21. carolinachris says: Nov 16, 2013 8:44 PM

    If Cam plays the way he did last week the Panther’s are in trouble. Carolina’s D has been awesome but no way they can hold Brady to 9 points. Panthers need 21+ points to have a chance to win this one. No better time for Cam to have a break out game than now.

  22. trevor123698 says: Nov 16, 2013 9:43 PM

    “This is great for the people in Nevada, but of not much use for the rest of us in the other 49 states since gambling is illegal and thus there is absolutely no betting on football.”

    All it took me was 20 minutes and a western union transfer. Unless of course you are scared of authority

  23. skooter519 says: Nov 16, 2013 10:12 PM

    I thought New Orleans would have smoked New England a couple of weeks ago but Brady has more weapons this week, go Pats

  24. lanman11 says: Nov 17, 2013 12:53 AM

    There is really only one truly great organization in the NFL and that’s The New England Patriots. Everyone else is vying for 2nd place. Sure, some of them have their moments, but nobody can keep it up as consistently as New England. A wise man simply recognizes this as fact and does not waste his energy opposing what the universe holds as true.

  25. jomeo72 says: Nov 17, 2013 4:46 AM

    Not sure if Carolina’s offense can put up enough points to keep New England out of it for long. They have a great running game and that’s going to be the key against the Pats poor run defense. The variable is Belichek and Brady. Coming off the bye and their historic dominance against NFC teams can not be overlooked. Don’t forget the turnover game. Pats create turnovers in every game which creates extra possessions. Should come down to the final possession.

  26. patshatersmakemelaugh says: Nov 17, 2013 8:13 PM

    @jetsjetsjetsnow: did you forget that this is the week the Jets, jets, jets, LOSE….ah, well they already LOST….a bit late with this but better late than never.

  27. mzew233 says: Nov 18, 2013 12:59 AM

    “briang123 says:
    not much use for the rest of us in the other 49 states since gambling is illegal and thus there is absolutely no betting on football”

    Brian is absolutely right. There is no such activity outside of Vegas, so completely irrelevant.

    That said, the patriots as dogs are always great on the ML

  28. saintsownthenfcsouth says: Nov 18, 2013 12:38 PM

    It’s amazing how many people are not educated on local laws.

    Online “casino gambling” is illegal in most states. However, some states such as Mississippi and others do not have online sports gambling listed under their online casino laws. Therefore, online betting on sports is legal.

    So, yes the points made in this article are valid to many people outside of Nevada.

  29. brazzz01 says: Nov 18, 2013 1:57 PM

    Panthers by 40.

    The Patriots and Brady really are nothing without Spygate. They’ve proven it again and again and again and always will.

  30. bullcharger says: Nov 18, 2013 2:14 PM

    brazzz01 says:Nov 18, 2013 1:57 PM

    Panthers by 40.

    The Patriots and Brady really are nothing without Spygate. They’ve proven it again and again and again and always will.


    You said it, so it must be true.

  31. heg76108 says: Nov 18, 2013 4:33 PM

    Ok , here is the deal ‘Pat’s win. Kc has a great defense and manning picked them apart with a bad ankle , That said Brady will do the same ‘ so go to vegas on a plane and bet on pats money line and you will be happy on the way home. 🐒🐒🐒🐒🐒🐒🐒🐒🐒🐒😎

  32. heg76108 says: Nov 18, 2013 5:00 PM

    To bull charger ‘ just trying to help you pay some bills and get some new flip flop’s go pat’s!!!!🐒🐒🐞🐞🐞7777

  33. bospat says: Nov 18, 2013 5:12 PM

    @pisano too bad you’ve seen that look on Bills face less than ANY team over last 13 YEARS! Pats by 20!

  34. jgedgar70 says: Nov 18, 2013 5:45 PM

    I really don’t think who is betting more money on who really has anything to do with who wins. I prefer to ponder questions like…

    -Do the Panthers run roughshod over the Pats front 7 missing half its starters for 200 yards rushing?
    -With 15 days to plan, has BB come up with a way to solve our defense?
    -Who gets the unsportsmanlike conduct penalty first, Smith or Talib?
    -Do our DBs, who no one has ever heard of but keep coming up big week after week, hold down Amendola & Dobson?
    -Isn’t Gronk vs Kuechly enough of a reason to shut the entire country down for 3 hours? (I vote yes.)

    I am very confident that identifying the team that had the most money bet on them will have zero impact on any of these questions.

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