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PFT’s Week 12 picks

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After chipping away at the seven-game lead MDS has compiled, the lead is back to seven, thanks to his two-game sweep of our disagreements last weekend.

I foolishly picked the Jets to beat the Bills (pre-Dave & Buster’s), and I thought the Ravens would find a way to win on the unfrozen turd-ra of Solder Field.  I was wrong on both counts.

As a result, MDS went 12-3, and I was 10-5 for the week.  For the year, MDS is now 107-55, and I’m 100-62.

This week, we disagree on four.  Which means I’ll be 11 back come Sunday night.

Saints at Falcons

MDS’s take: Atlanta bottomed out with Sunday’s blowout loss to Tampa Bay. When the NFL’s schedule makers put this one on NFL Network, they probably figured it was going to be one of the best games of the year. Instead, this will be one of the most lopsided.

MDS’s pick: Saints 38, Falcons 10.

Florio’s take:  Last year, the Saints’ bus was egged by overly zealous Falcons fans.  This year, those Falcons fans would be more inclined to egg the Falcons’ bus.  The Saints need to stay within striking distance of the Seahawks, and the Falcons need to get through Week 17.

Florio’s pick:  Saints 31, Falcons 20.

Jets at Ravens

MDS’s take: Two bad offenses against two good defenses. Expect a low-scoring game, and one that the home team will win. This won’t look like a playoff game, but both teams are right in the thick of the playoff race in the AFC, where there are six available playoff spots but only five good teams.

MDS’s pick: Ravens 17, Jets 13.

Florio’s take:  The good news is that the Jets’ win-one-lose-one trend ends.  The bad news is that it ends with two straight losses.  The best news is that Ed Reed knows where the Dave & Buster’s is in Baltimore.

Florio’s pick:  Ravens 20, Jets 13.

Steelers at Browns

MDS’s take: The Steelers looked good on Sunday against the Lions, while the Browns looked bad against the Bengals. This week, however, I see Jason Campbell having a solid game against the weak Pittsburgh secondary, and Ben Roethlisberger struggling against a Cleveland defense that’s a lot better than people realize. I’ll go with the Browns.

MDS’s pick: Browns 23, Steelers 20.

Florio’s take:  The winner of this battle of 4-6 rivals remains alive for the playoffs.  The loser has to run the table and presumably hope for help.  The edge goes to the Steelers, who have won two in a row and seem to be finally finding their groove.

Florio’s pick:  Steelers 13, Browns 10.

Buccaneers at Lions

MDS’s take: This is a closer game than most people think.  The Bucs are playing much better football in the last few weeks, and the Lions have been inconsistent. An upset wouldn’t surprise me here at all, but with Bucs safety Dashon Goldson suspended, I’ll take the Lions’ passing game to take advantage of a depleted secondary and win a close, high-scoring game.

MDS’s pick: Lions 28, Buccaneers 27.

Florio’s take:  The nothing-to-lose-except-more-games Bucs can give the up-and-down Lions a real scare as Detroit plays a pair of home games only four days apart.  Picking the upset is tempting, but the Lions have the talent and the incentive to find a way to win.

Florio’s pick:  Lions 27, Buccaneers 13.

Vikings at Packers

MDS’s take: The Vikings could pretty much end the Packers’ playoff hopes with a win in Green Bay, but I don’t think that will happen. With Aaron Rodgers at quarterback this would be a blowout, but with Scott Tolzien at quarterback I’m picking the Packers to win a close one.

MDS’s pick: Packers 20, Vikings 17.

Florio’s take:  The last time the Vikings played at Lambeau Field, Minnesota fans were disappointed Christian Ponder didn’t start.  This time, they’re disappointed he is.  Even with Scott Tolzien playing for the Packers, Green Bay has the horses to hold serve at home.

Florio’s pick:  Packers 27, Vikings 17.

Jaguars at Texans

MDS’s take: This is a big game, at least if you consider last place in the AFC South and potentially the first overall pick in the 2014 NFL draft to be a big deal. I view the Jaguars as a terrible team and the Texans as merely a bad team, and “bad” beats “terrible.”

MDS’s pick: Texans 24, Jaguars 17.

Florio’s take:  Before the season, the Jaguars would have been thrilled to know they’d trailed the Texans in the standings by only one game.  The Texans are bad, but not so bad that they can’t snap an eight-game losing streak against one of the worst teams in recent memory.

Florio’s pick:  Texan 24, Jaguars 10.

Chargers at Chiefs

MDS’s take: The Chargers have an offense that can move the ball against a good Kansas City defense. The problem is the Chargers’ defense can get lit up by a good running back. I expect Jamaal Charles to have about 200 yards from scrimmage as the Chiefs win.

MDS’s pick: Chiefs 27, Chargers 20.

Florio’s take:  Even after losing their first game of the season, the signs point to the Chiefs getting another win before trying to avoid being swept by the Broncos.  The Chargers are still clinging to a shot at the postseason, but it’s time for several of the teams clustered around the race for the six seed to start falling off.

Florio’s pick:  Chiefs 24, Chargers 17.

Panthers at Dolphins

MDS’s take: This could be a difficult game for Carolina, coming off the huge Monday night battle with the Patriots and having to travel on a short work week. However, I just don’t think Miami’s offense is good enough to move the ball effectively against that great Panthers defense.

MDS’s pick: Panthers 13, Dolphins 10.

Florio’s take:  The Jonathan Martin distraction hits overdrive, and the Panthers believe their signature win has been undermined by claims of a bad call.  They won’t need a bad call to extend their streak to seven games.

Florio’s pick:  Panthers 30, Dolphins 20.

Bears at Rams

MDS’s take: The Bears just keep playing good football, despite injuries to key players like Jay Cutler, Henry Melton, Lance Briggs, and Charles Tillman. It’s impressive the way this team has stayed right in the thick of the playoff race, and I expect Chicago to keep it going at St. Louis.

MDS’s pick: Bears 27, Rams 17.

Florio’s take:  Want to know why the NFL protects quarterbacks?  Get ready for Josh McCown vs. Kellen Clemens.  Somehow, the Rams pounded the Colts two weeks ago, and St. Louis has had two weeks to get ready from an injury-pounded Bears team.  The Rams get the benefit of the doubt after scoring one of the most shocking outcomes of the season — and as Tavon Austin begins to become a Devin Hester who also can run routes and catch passes.

Florio’s pick:  Rams 24, Bears 21.

Colts at Cardinals

MDS’s take: The Colts are the flip side of what I just said about the Bears: A good team whose injuries have just become too much. Indianapolis will still win the AFC South, but I think the injury toll is just too much for the Colts to go on the road and beat a Cardinals team that is playing a lot better than most of us expected.

MDS’s pick: Cardinals 17, Colts 14.

Florio’s take:  Coach of the year as the Colts interim head coach in 2012, Bruce Arians likely knows how to shut down a team that everyone seems to be shutting down in the first half of games.  If you’re having a hard time processing the fact that the Cardinals are 6-4, start getting used to thinking of them at 7-4.

Florio’s pick:  Cardinals 20, Colts 16.

Titans at Raiders

MDS’s take: Two bad teams will be on the field in Oakland on Sunday. I’ll go with the Titans’ defense making life tough for Matt McGloin and winning a low-scoring battle.

MDS’s pick: Titans 17, Raiders 14.

Florio’s takeTerrelle Pryor once said he’d never heard of Matt McGloin.  Pryor has heard of McGloin now, and the slumping Titans will be hearing plenty from him on Sunday.

Florio’s pick:  Raiders 27, Titans 20.

Cowboys at Giants

MDS’s take: Can a team that starts the season 0-6 win its division? Maybe, if that division is the terrible NFC East. The Giants can improve to 5-6 and join the Cowboys at just one game behind the Eagles with a win, and I think that’s exactly what will happen.

MDS’s pick: Giants 20, Cowboys 17.

Florio’s takeJason Pierre-Paul says that a certain red liquid will be spilled during this one.  If the Giants catch the Cowboys at 5-6, Jason Garrett moves a big step closer to receiving a certain pink slip.

Florio’s pick:  Giants 28, Cowboys 27.

Broncos at Patriots

MDS’s take: The Broncos again play in the best game of the week on Sunday night, and they’re going to have their hands full against a Patriots team that can exploit the weaknesses in Denver’s secondary. Tom Brady will have a big game but Peyton Manning will have a bigger game and the Broncos will win a shootout.

MDS’s pick: Broncos 35, Patriots 31.

Florio’s take:  Tom Brady generally gets the better of Peyton Manning, especially in New England.  With the Pats feeling a little salty after getting shafted (even if they didn’t) on Monday night, interim coach Jack Del Rio could end up feeling like he’s back in Jacksonville.

Florio’s pick:  Patriots 34, Broncos 23.

49ers at Redskins

MDS’s take: San Francisco’s offense is slumping, but a trip to Washington is just the thing to fix an offensive slump. Colin Kaepernick might finally put up some big passing numbers against a weak pass defense.

MDS’s pick: 49ers 30, Redskins 20.

Florio’s take:  Which flash-in-the-pan quarterback can prove that he’s the real deal?  Maybe the answer is neither.  Either way, the 49ers have more talent and motivation to get back on the right track, or risk sliding into third place in their division.

Florio’s pick:  49ers 23, Redskins 13.

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49 Responses to “PFT’s Week 12 picks”
  1. ravanator says: Nov 21, 2013 10:30 AM

    We will beat the lousy Jets 31-14. Joe “ELITE” Flacco will throw for 377yds and 4tds. Back to back Super Bowls the Ravens!! All others envy us.

    #ravensrepeat

  2. assuredmutualdestruction says: Nov 21, 2013 10:36 AM

    Upset of the week (though, I don’t think it’d be much of one): Skins over the niners…35-20.

  3. steelersaregodsteam says: Nov 21, 2013 10:46 AM

    Aaand we march.

    The 10-2 run continues.

    And you’re still jealous?

  4. iamapatsfan says: Nov 21, 2013 10:50 AM

    Florio picks Pats over Broncos? I don’t know whether to be happy or scared, lol.

    I don’t think the result will be that far apart, though. Peyton is just too good to not put up at least 30 against the Pats weakened D. I’d love to be wrong, though.

  5. thundastormz says: Nov 21, 2013 10:51 AM

    Panthers will score more than 13 points…C’mon Maaaan!

  6. denverdougz says: Nov 21, 2013 10:52 AM

    Broncos – 23? You think the pats defense(what’s left of it) will hold the broncos to 23? Id like to know what you’re smoking

  7. coachjohnharbaugh says: Nov 21, 2013 10:53 AM

    ravens 600
    jets 0

  8. steelersaregodsteam says: Nov 21, 2013 11:00 AM

    The Steelers dominate your thoughts.

    But why?

    It’s because of our trophy case.

  9. gurkharavens says: Nov 21, 2013 11:00 AM

    We haven’t been playing good football. As much as I want the Ravens to win, I think if we find a way to make the playoffs; I won’t be surprised if we go for a run then. We better beat the Jets.

  10. allday28mvpmvp says: Nov 21, 2013 11:16 AM

    Vikings are gonna work the Packers!

    Ponder will beat GB just like last year in the final game of the regular season.

  11. buttfumbles says: Nov 21, 2013 11:17 AM

    Still on the Dave & Busters thing? The Jets lost because they stink on the road this year, not because they went to D&B.

  12. seansds3d says: Nov 21, 2013 11:17 AM

    Peyton comes into foxbrougho with the better team and beats the pats in a high scoring game… the pats D line looks very unimpressive and their secondary looks ripe for the picking. If Welker plays the Broncos will run the score up.

  13. foul83 says: Nov 21, 2013 11:20 AM

    I played a game of Operation against Freddie Roach. Guy sucks.

  14. chargersdiehard says: Nov 21, 2013 11:20 AM

    Chargers will beat the Chiefs.

  15. gottaplan says: Nov 21, 2013 11:37 AM

    I think I see the strategy now…. pick against the Dolphins every week and at least some of the time it will be right…

  16. andyreidisabeachedwalrus says: Nov 21, 2013 11:38 AM

    I tend to agree with the Arizona pick. Indy’s in trouble if they dig themselves into a hole against that D, there defence is legit.

  17. fumblenuts says: Nov 21, 2013 11:53 AM

    Flying all the way cross country in a very cold weather game I’ll take the Redskins over 49ers for the upset. Shanahan will out coach Hardblow on this one.

  18. southpaw2k says: Nov 21, 2013 12:12 PM

    I have no idea what to expect in the Jets/Ravens game this weekend. Geno Smith could throw for 3 TDs, or he could throw 2 INTs and fumble the ball away. Ray Rice could rush for 125 yards and a TD, or he could carry the ball 18 times for 42 yards and no TD.

    After throwing darts at a dartboard….

    Ravens 19
    Jets 14

  19. deangelo23hall says: Nov 21, 2013 12:17 PM

    “Flash in the pan QBs” ?

    RG3 is coming off an ACL injury and on significantly weaker team.

    What’s Kaepernick’s excuse for sucking?

  20. joemammy says: Nov 21, 2013 12:32 PM

    Reality check for the Pittsburghers.

    Cleveland Browns – 49
    Pittsburgh Steelers – 3

  21. logicalvoicesays says: Nov 21, 2013 12:39 PM

    Redskins 49 Fortywhiners 3

  22. jbeagles23 says: Nov 21, 2013 12:45 PM

    These are the type of games Peyton loses. Ill take New England to win by 10

  23. purplengold says: Nov 21, 2013 12:56 PM

    Packers by 14.

  24. thegenoatkinsdiet says: Nov 21, 2013 1:05 PM

    This is the 14th time that Peyton will play the Patriot. It will be the 10th time he has played them in Foxboro.

    Must be nice to have the league arrange for you to play many of your tough games at home…

  25. denverwally says: Nov 21, 2013 1:09 PM

    I’m out here in Denver… the Bronco’s are nervous about this game… very nervous. Peyton has a 14 year track record of choking away these games.

  26. crnvic847 says: Nov 21, 2013 1:10 PM

    The Edward Jones Dome becomes Soldier Field South this Sunday as I expect tens of thousand of my fellow Bears fans to join me in making the trip south.

    Remember what happened in Nashville last year when the Bears played the Titans? The city practically ran out of alcohol!!

    Overall I think the game will be a lot closer than most think but the Bears will prevail with their “ninth” home game.

    Bears 27 Rams 24

  27. zam0854 says: Nov 21, 2013 1:14 PM

    Redskins = 3-8

  28. usdcoyotesfan says: Nov 21, 2013 1:27 PM

    Packers 77 Vikings 0

  29. GO FOR TWO SPORTS says: Nov 21, 2013 1:38 PM

    I hate Michael David Smith.
    This guy hates The Raiders so much he should work for ESPN.
    ———————————————————

    MDS’s take: Two bad teams will be on the field in Oakland on Sunday. I’ll go with the Titans’ defense making life tough for Matt McGloin and winning a low-scoring battle.

    MDS’s pick: Titans 17, Raiders 14.
    ———————————————- ———–

    First of all that “bad team” BEAT you’re Steelers MDS. Second how bad are these 2 teams? Both are in the playoff mix. Raiders stand a excellent chance at making the Wildcard due to having a win on Chargers and YOU’RE Steelers.
    If Raiders were 9-0 right now you would make some kind of statement that they suck.
    I hope Matt McGloin goes out there throws for 6 TDs and 500 yards and WINS… I love to see you squirm like the little nerd you are

  30. cfeeley52 says: Nov 21, 2013 1:44 PM

    thegenoatkinsdiet says:
    Nov 21, 2013 1:05 PM
    This is the 14th time that Peyton will play the Patriot. It will be the 10th time he has played them in Foxboro.

    Must be nice to have the league arrange for you to play many of your tough games at home…
    —————————————-
    It’s called home field advantage, you earn it in the playoffs by being the best team in the regular season. Most of Manning’s losses to Brady have come in the playoffs so difference in home field is pretty logical. I’m not even a pats fans for the record, I just hate whiners…

  31. badmoonrison says: Nov 21, 2013 1:47 PM

    I liked how Florio referred to RGMe and Colin “Kiss My Own Arms” as flash in the pan QBs….awesome!!!

  32. gdublud says: Nov 21, 2013 2:12 PM

    for a guy who says 40 whiners, you been doing that all season with the Redskins talking about the refs in the league, Roger Goodell are screwing the Redskins you’re the one who’s the whiner you been whining all year you been whining in the offseason you going to be whining this offseason.

  33. fringetastic says: Nov 21, 2013 2:12 PM

    My quick thoughts which no one cares about…

    … I think there’s a good chance KC loses 2 in a row.

    … Colts are going to struggle but still win their awful division. Despite losing this week.

    … GB, one of my favorite teams, will lose to MN. And keep losing until their leaders come back from injuries.

    … Giants aren’t facing a backup QB and they lose again. Eli-te isn’t good enough this year.

  34. jimmysee says: Nov 21, 2013 2:22 PM

    Packers C-team vs the Vikings (the B-team is injured, too).

    Truly a scrimmage for the Green and Gold.

  35. boisestatewhodat says: Nov 21, 2013 3:06 PM

    WHO DAT!!

    Getcha Popcorn ready Seattle…the Champs are comin’!

    New Orleans smells another Lombardi Gras just ’round dat corner!

  36. jayniner says: Nov 21, 2013 3:15 PM

    logicalvoicesays says: Nov 21, 2013 12:39 PM

    Redskins 49 Fortywhiners 3

    ————————-

    On behalf of Niners fans everywhere, we would like to thank you in advance for the win this Sunday….

  37. jayniner says: Nov 21, 2013 3:21 PM

    ^^^^^*Monday night

  38. niners83 says: Nov 21, 2013 3:39 PM

    Everybody is all over the niners. They have 4 loses. There opponents in those losses have a combined 32-8 record. SAINTS, SEAHAWKS, COLTS, AND PANTHERS. They two of those losses they had no Vernon Davis or Michael Crabtree. They barely lost to the saints last week on the road in NO. They lost to the panthers without Vernon Davis by 1. Other than those 4 losses they have dominated everygame. They are getting healthy just in time. Insert Crabtree back into the line up and you have to play them differently. It will make a HUGE difference.

  39. jgedgar70 says: Nov 21, 2013 3:52 PM

    I’m a Panthers fan very worried. The stars are perfectly alligned for Miami:

    1) We are 0-for-life against Miami, unless you count the 2012 practice game.
    2) Circle the wagons. The Chiefs were beyond awful last year. Tragedy strikes the team the week of the game. They rally and get 1 of their 2 wins over us. Dolphins are circling the wagons around Incognito. Just sayin’.

    On the other hand, There’s no way Miami can score on us, unless previous year versions of Wallace and Tannehill suddenly re-appear.

    Once again, have to ensure the liquor cabinet is stocked…

  40. mswravens says: Nov 21, 2013 3:59 PM

    The Dave & Buster’s is out in the Linthicum/Hanover area…out toward the airport.

  41. infectorman says: Nov 21, 2013 4:21 PM

    Peyton Manning spending 95% of his career in the comfy confines of the dome in INDY and outdoor Divisional opponents like Houston, Jacksonville and TENN never fares well in cold weather games north of the Mason Dixon line.
    Forecast is for 18 degrees for Sunday nite.

    How did ole’ wobbly Duck man do the last time he played in cold weather.. oh…Yeah.

    That ankle gonna be STINGIN (!) when C Jones knocks him on his arse.

    Ne: 31 Den 23

  42. bearsoxass says: Nov 21, 2013 4:25 PM

    Packs gonna wash the queens.

  43. chrisinauburn says: Nov 21, 2013 5:01 PM

    MDS’s take on Carolina at Miami:
    “This could be a difficult game for Carolina, coming off the huge Monday night battle with the Patriots and having to travel on a short work week.”
    So, either you think a two-hour flight will hurt the Panthers or you failed geography.

  44. gborange says: Nov 21, 2013 8:54 PM

    Manning does have a record of performing poor when his audibles are videotaped and recorded with a high sensitivity audio recorder.

  45. justamoguy says: Nov 21, 2013 10:40 PM

    thegenoatkinsdiet says:Nov 21, 2013 1:05 PM
    This is the 14th time that Peyton will play the Patriot. It will be the 10th time he has played them in Foxboro.
    Must be nice to have the league arrange for you to play many of your tough games at home…
    =================================

    Or there is a formula to determine who and where you play and the “Man” did not create an EVIL PLAN to screw anyone.
    First off, your numbers are incorrect. Actually it will be the 9th time they have played in Foxboro, and they have played 5 times in Indy.
    Now take out the three playoff games they played, since those are determined by the seeding (2 in Foxboro and 1 in Indy), and now it is 7 away games and 4 home games.
    Next we separate games played as a Colt and those as a Bronco, since the schedule is written according to the team, not the player at QB.
    As a Colt
    5 Away games and 4 Home games

    As a Bronco
    2 Away games and 0 Home games

    And I can see you pointing already, why if Denver had to go to Foxboro last year doesn’t N.E. come to Denver this year. Well because the two meeting before last year (2011 and 2009) where played in Denver. The NFL tries to balance these things out so people do not think they are favoring one team over the other. LOL

    The NFL realigned in 2002. Since then:
    Denver Vs. Patriots
    2002 (N.E.)
    2003 (Den)
    2005 (Den)
    2006 (N.E.)
    2008 (N.E.)
    2009 (Den)
    2011 (Den)
    2012 (N.E.)
    2013 (N.E.)

    So since the realignment Denver has had to travel to Foxboro 5 time in the Regular season and New England has had to come to Mile High 4 times.

    You know what, I think I see what you are saying. If anyone is in doubt just ask Denver’s water boy. I think his name is Lee Harvey Oswald. Last time I saw him he was hanging out on the grassy Knoll.

  46. emoney826 says: Nov 22, 2013 11:12 AM

    Funny how the trailer trash of Minnesota thinks that ponder will beat the packers because he beat them ONCE in his entire career. For the next ten years, those fans will always point to that game and brag, while packer fans can look at 80% of the games over the past two decades and brag. Oh, but the trailer trash says, “well we dominated you in the 70’s and 80’s.” That was 3-4 decades ago! If this were the 90’s and I was talking trash, you could throw that in my face, but its 2013, kids. Can’t be like bear fans who can’t move past 1985.

  47. deweyaxewound says: Nov 22, 2013 3:33 PM

    emoney826 says:
    Nov 22, 2013 11:12 AM
    Funny how the trailer trash of Minnesota thinks that ponder will beat the packers because he beat them ONCE in his entire career. For the next ten years, those fans will always point to that game and brag, while packer fans can look at 80% of the games over the past two decades and brag. Oh, but the trailer trash says, “well we dominated you in the 70′s and 80′s.” That was 3-4 decades ago! If this were the 90′s and I was talking trash, you could throw that in my face, but its 2013, kids. Can’t be like bear fans who can’t move past 1985.
    ______________________________

    Funny, I would say Bears fans are the ones who are forward-looking right now…at least, we had enough foresight not to put all our eggs in one basket, and considered that having a little depth might be important.

    For as lowly and awful as the Vikes are this year -your overrated, one-dimensional team is about to LOSE to them. What’s that say about the Puke? Enjoy your tailspin into mediocrity.

  48. thegenoatkinsdiet says: Nov 23, 2013 2:53 PM

    Given all of the trash talk Patriots fans serve up, I would think they would have a little thicker skin…

  49. racyman57 says: Nov 24, 2013 12:04 AM

    The Chiefs offense comes alive, after some missed ooportunities against the Broncos. Alex Smith will have his first 300+ yard passing game of the year, with D. Bowe being the main benefactor, 80 yards and 2 TD’s. This game will be the turning point for the Chiefs offense, as they face a tough schedule to end the season and Reid knows that they have to play more of a role in complimenting the defense. Chiefs 31 – Chargers-20 . A tuneup for a home win against the Broncos next week.

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