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PFT’s divisional round picks

Luck AP

It’s the second week of the PFT postseason picks contest, and the wild-card round resulted in a push.

I correctly picked the Saints (MDS had the Eagles), and I foolishly had faith in the Packers (MDS took the 49ers).  We both correctly picked the Colts, and we both incorrectly selected the Bengals.

This week, we disagree on only one game.  Which means that one of us will take a one-game lead into the conference championship round.

For our takes on each of the four games, read on.

Saints at Seahawks

MDS’s take: I’d love to find a reason to be the contrarian and say the Saints have a good chance of winning this one. But I just can’t. The Seahawks were better than the Saints all season.  When these two teams met in Seattle six weeks ago, it was ugly. I don’t think the Seahawks are going to have the game wrapped up by the end of the first quarter, like they did when they destroyed the Saints in the regular season, but I do think the Seahawks are going to win handily. Seattle’s pass rush is going to make life hard for Drew Brees, and Russell Wilson will make plays with both his arm and his feet. It won’t be as lopsided as 34-7, but it won’t be close, either.

MDS’s pick: Seahawks 31, Saints 14.

Florio’s take:  The Saints are doing everything they can to simulate the reality of playing in Seattle.  But there’s no way to fully simulate the most intimidating atmosphere in all of sports.  To have a chance, the Saints will need to continue to rely on a running game that helped lift the team to its first playoff road win in franchise history.   And they’ll have to hope that the Seahawks sputter like they did in Week 16 against the Cardinals, which unfortunately may have been more about keeping the Seahawks from getting complacent and less about exposing the team’s flaws.  Throw in the return of Percy Harvin, and a valiant effort by the Saints feels destined to fall short.

Florio’s pick:  Seahawks 28, Saints 24.

Colts at Patriots

MDS’s take: Indianapolis is a team on the rise, a franchise that I see making the playoffs consistently for as long as Andrew Luck is the quarterback, which is probably a dozen or so more years. Kind of like the Patriots have been for as long as Tom Brady has been the quarterback. If the Colts could win a playoff game in New England, it would feel like an AFC changing of the guard, but I don’t think the Colts are quite ready for that. Indianapolis doesn’t have a good enough defense to keep New England’s offense in check, and Bill Belichick’s defensive schemes will force Andrew Luck into some big mistakes.

MDS’s pick: Patriots 24, Colts 14.

Florio’s take:  It’s hard to call the Patriots overachievers with Bill Belichick as the head coach and Tom Brady as the quarterback.  But even with two of the best ever at their respective jobs, the Patriots have major flaws.  And the Colts bring a dangerous nothing-to-lose mentality to Gillette Stadium, along with a head coach who has four years of experience with the true New England nemesis in the AFC — the Ravens.  Look for Chuck Pagano to contain the New England offense just enough to give Andrew Luck and company a chance to outscore the home team.  If Luck can beat Tom Brady in their first ever postseason meeting, all those Colts fans who still wear Peyton Manning jerseys may have to buy some royal blue tape and turn the 8 into a 2.

Florio’s pick:  Colts 23, Patriots 20.

49ers at Panthers

MDS’s take: When these two teams met in San Francisco in November, the defenses dominated: Carolina’s D held San Francisco’s O to five different three-and-outs, while also recovering a Kendall Hunter fumble and intercepting Colin Kaepernick to end the game. San Francisco’s D held Carolina’s O to three different three-and-outs and intercepted Cam Newton once. Kaepernick was held to a season-low 91 passing yards, while Newton wasn’t much better, with just 169 passing yards. I expect this to be another low-scoring defensive struggle. Both defenses are good, but the Panthers’ defense is better, and I like Carolina to win a close one.

MDS’s pick: Panthers 16, 49ers 9.

Florio’s take:  The last time the 49ers played the Panthers, receiver Michael Crabtree was still recovering from a torn Achilles tendon, tight end Vernon Davis left early with a concussion, and linebacker Aldon Smith participated in only 12 snaps in his first game back from rehab.  Also, quarterback Colin Kaepernick recently has rediscovered the groove that made Ron Jaworski proclaim Kaepernick could be the best ever.  The Panthers don’t care.  Tough and gritty and able to overcome adversity, it’s Cam Newton’s time to step onto the big stage and shine.  He’ll find a way, early or late or at some point in between, to make enough plays to complement a defense that will give Kaepernick a much harder time than the Green Bay defense did in the wild-card round.

Florio’s pick:  Panthers 17, 49ers 16.

Chargers at Broncos

MDS’s take: There are a lot of things to like about the Chargers. They won in Denver a month ago. They’re healthier than the Broncos right now. Philip Rivers is passing as well as anyone not named Peyton Manning. This game should be close and competitive, much more than you’d expect for a wild card team that barely made the playoffs facing the No. 1 seed in the conference. In the end, however, I just don’t think San Diego’s defense is going to be good enough — and I don’t think Manning is going to hand the game to the Chargers’ defense, the way Andy Dalton did on Sunday. The Broncos may trail for much of the game, but they’ll pull it out in the fourth quarter.

MDS’s pick: Broncos 27, Chargers 24.

Florio’s take:  One month to the day after the Chargers tiptoed into the lions den and took its zebra leg, Philip Rivers and company are trying to barge through the front door.  Good luck with that.  Keenly aware of the impact of this game on his legacy and motivated to show that the regular-season outcome in Denver was a fluke, Peyton Manning will become Peyton F. Manning for at least one day in January.

Florio’s pick:  Broncos 41, Chargers 24.

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72 Responses to “PFT’s divisional round picks”
  1. The League's Crusade Against The Steelers Continues says: Jan 9, 2014 10:45 AM

    If the Steelers weren’t robbed we would still be marching.

  2. thedoubleentandres says: Jan 9, 2014 10:55 AM

    Please Peyton, Please Please Pleeeeeeeaasssseeee

  3. jrazz22 says: Jan 9, 2014 10:55 AM

    I think Seattle wins, but wouldn’t be surprised it the Saints end up winning. Niners will win. Their lack of play makers on offense the first time was a huge factor. The Panthers have few playmakers on offense with a banged up Steve Smith.

  4. skippynj says: Jan 9, 2014 10:55 AM

    Awesome. Please, everyone continue to pick the Saints to lose. Just don’t bet any money on it.

  5. thestrategyexpert says: Jan 9, 2014 11:00 AM

    I like the Colts pick. If you are ever going to bet against Tom Brady in the playoffs, this may be the time on account of a lot of injuries that keep mounting up. With Spikes out now that Defense has taken a lot of hits, and this could be an opportunity for Irsay to feel like he can get Richardson some momentum. That is if he doesn’t fumble it on the first carry.

    I still recommend sticking with play money though when gambling against Brady. What I see as lack of depth he sees as fresh legs and as long as he at least has a couple people to work with that know how to catch a football then he can work with that.

  6. cajunaise says: Jan 9, 2014 11:10 AM

    I don’t expect the Patriots to make the same mistake their Boston analysts and some fans are making: thinking that past playoff excellence means a cake-walk this weekend. Tom stands strong, but his castle is crumbling. It’ll fall either this weekend or next weekend.

  7. cospgsmadman says: Jan 9, 2014 11:16 AM

    I would like to see the colts win but all the home teams will win this week.

  8. skoltwincities says: Jan 9, 2014 11:23 AM

    Let’s talk about next year’s playoffs when Johnny Football brings Minnesota the Lombardi trophy that it deserves. Skol!

  9. 5046packer says: Jan 9, 2014 11:23 AM

    Saints, Patriots, 49ers and Broncos!!

  10. 6ball says: Jan 9, 2014 11:23 AM

    .

    For Indianapolis to be victorious in New England, they’ll need to be +2 in turnovers. In cold conditions that’s not out of the realm.

    .

  11. andyreidisabeachedwalrus says: Jan 9, 2014 11:25 AM

    Seadderal
    Indy
    9ERS
    Denver

  12. harrisbarton says: Jan 9, 2014 11:26 AM

    Playoff experience matters. The Panthers will come out there so tight they’ll be holding their breath thru their rec-tums. They also lack playmakers on offense. The Niners will be moving on to the championship round.

  13. whoisrdymlz says: Jan 9, 2014 11:28 AM

    Literally the only two guys picking the Panthers. At home. Healthy.

  14. thevikes85 says: Jan 9, 2014 11:29 AM

    Chargers win.I can feel it.If Colts win thats it for bray and manning forever.Saints win the seahawks have peaked long ago and niners win.

  15. jersey73 says: Jan 9, 2014 11:52 AM

    I hope Florio is right. Would love to see a Colts/Denver AFCCG!

  16. red26sox says: Jan 9, 2014 12:06 PM

    NE losing to the Colts at home? Hard to believe. NE loses in the playoffs when the other team gets excellent play from their front seven and gets in Brady’s face and when the opposing secondary beats up their receivers. Tough to see the Colts doing that with a beat up secondary and only one scary guy in their front seven.

  17. The League's Crusade Against The Steelers Continues says: Jan 9, 2014 12:13 PM

    Brady won’t win another ring.

  18. tajuara says: Jan 9, 2014 12:47 PM

    I think that overall the Chargers have more chances to win than the Colts. NE has a good OL and will be hard to get to Brady only with Mathis. More time in the pocket usually means more accurate throws. As a team, we exceed our expectations, and if we pull an upset good for us

  19. ravensgrl says: Jan 9, 2014 12:55 PM

    I think Peyton’s streak of one-and-done’s continues. Chargers are gonna win…

  20. samphilvista82 says: Jan 9, 2014 1:08 PM

    Current forecast for Saturday night – very windy, heavy rain. Pats just played their last game in similar conditions. Colts just played in the dome. This will be a factor.

  21. gvrose8192 says: Jan 9, 2014 1:10 PM

    I fear for the Niners at the Panthers… early game on the east coast after a tough game against the Packers last Sunday. And I’m not buying the Panthers being all uptight because its a playoff game. They’ll be at home, rested and ready.

  22. bmurph says: Jan 9, 2014 1:13 PM

    Maybe you’re right that Pagano has some familiarity with playing the Pats form being with the Ravens, but that didn’t seem to make a difference last year when the Pats blew the doors off of Indy. Also, the colts don’t have nearly the same playmakers or pedigree of those Baltimore defense’s that always gave Brady a hard time.

  23. dougydougdoug says: Jan 9, 2014 1:19 PM

    Manning has the record for the most career post-season tank jobs. That, is a fact.

    The Chargers have the overwhelming advantage over Manning, dating back to his legacy years in Indy.

    Home field has proven to be a total disadvantage to all the playoff teams which lost to the Chargers: Philly, KC, Denver, Cinci.

    The Chargers are still playing with house money, while Denver (Manning) has simply too much on the line. Manning will, yet again, crumble under that pressure, and San Diego will go on to play Indy in the Championship game.

  24. trefkennedy says: Jan 9, 2014 1:19 PM

    I think luck and the colts can do it, however this is Brady were talking about, he’s like Goku from DragonBallZ, I’m not sleeping on him

  25. hawks1224 says: Jan 9, 2014 1:20 PM

    Seattle forecast for Saturday: 100% chance of heavy rain and 50 mph + wind gusts. Good luck Mr.Brees.

  26. sdnative1904 says: Jan 9, 2014 1:25 PM

    Follow these picks blindly. They are gold. In fact, they are better than gold. They’re like rubies.

    LOL.

  27. cornerstone2001 says: Jan 9, 2014 1:30 PM

    Pats will run the ball down their throats with Blount and Vereen…….

    Niners win….. no offense there in Carolina

  28. ratsfoiledagain says: Jan 9, 2014 1:35 PM

    skippynj says:
    Jan 9, 2014 10:55 AM

    Awesome. Please, everyone continue to pick the Saints to lose. Just don’t bet any money on it.
    *******
    Why?

    The Saints won their first road game ever last week.

    They’re going to a place where they were blown out last time there.

    I saw on ESPN that in the past 7 meetings the Saints are 2-5 against Seattle.

    Like it or not Seattle is the better team. The better team wins the game most of the time.

    Look, it’s football, and anything can happen. I understand the Saints could win the game, but who knows. Looking at it right now, the Seahawks should win this game.

    I will say this. If Seattle’s offense continues to struggle like they did the last 3-4 games of the reg season, the Saints will have an easier path to winning this game.

    I believe the game will be much closer than the previous one.

    I’d like to say good luck to the Saints, and if they’re were playing another team I would, but as a Seahawk fan I can’t.

    Hope it’s a good game with no injuries….

    P.S. Regardless which team wins, their will be some fans of the winning team on here gloating endlessly for few days like children.

  29. 49erfan44 says: Jan 9, 2014 1:40 PM

    Niners beat panthers.

    Hawks win close.

    Brady is still the man.

    Peyton needs this.

  30. raiders85 says: Jan 9, 2014 1:43 PM

    Good luck worshiping manning when they lose and they Peyton fing manning thing sounds cute but it’s always the team rooting for him saying that unless you know he gets matched up against a rex Grossman team

  31. vietnambob2473 says: Jan 9, 2014 1:50 PM

    50 degrees in Denver sunday, i like Peytons chances

  32. morr24 says: Jan 9, 2014 1:50 PM

    It appeared to me that the 49ers had become the “media darlings” (especially on ESPN) after the Green Bay game. Oddly, SF only did what they were favored to do.

    I will not be surprised if the NFC South flips the script on the NFC West being the toughest division.

    The 49ers have won 7 in a row, but the Panthers have won 11 of 12 (including their last 7 home games).

    Newton has a QB rating (100) 20 points higher at home compared to Kaepernick’s 94 rating on the road.

    The Panthers have won their last 4 meetings with the 49ers (2 at home and 2 away).

    The Panthers have the 2nd rated defense compared to SF’s 5th rated defense.

    Crabtree for SF is back, but then so is the forgotten man, Jonathan Stewart for the Panthers.

    The one potential crimp in the “NFC South rules scenario” may be the weather in Seattle. Should the weather interfere, beware Seattle. The Panthers would be headed your

  33. russellwilsonismymvp says: Jan 9, 2014 2:05 PM

    The ONLY “lock” this weekend is Seattle over New Orleans…so if you’re a Saints fan or Seahawks hater, please feels free to click the thumbs down button now.

    Pats win…Panthers win…and Rivers is this year’s reason Manning chokes in the postseason again.

  34. 49erstim says: Jan 9, 2014 2:46 PM

    Saints shock Seahawks by the sea shore.
    Manning suffers all too familiar playoff loss.
    49ers strike gold in blowout win.
    Brady’s bunch defeats the Comeback Caveman

    You’re welcome gambling community.

  35. dvdman123 says: Jan 9, 2014 2:56 PM

    There is no such thing as a “lock” in the NFL.

  36. therealbleedcoltsblue says: Jan 9, 2014 2:56 PM

    all those Colts fans who still wear Peyton Manning jerseys may have to buy some royal blue tape and turn the 8 into a 2.

    _____________________________

    That’s great.. except that the Colts don’t wear royal blue.

    But this guy thinks the Colts are going to lose on Sunday so it’s obvious he knows very little about the subject at hand…

    #ColtsStrong

  37. northstarnic says: Jan 9, 2014 3:00 PM

    Go Lucky #12! Best young QB we’ve seen in a long time.

  38. joecool49 says: Jan 9, 2014 3:09 PM

    The Niners are in good shape as long as Florio continues to pick againt them. The form has held true since he started picking against them in Week 14 v. Seattle, look it up..

  39. marklar1025 says: Jan 9, 2014 3:19 PM

    joecool49 beat me to it – As long as Floria picks against the Niners they got a good chance. Better than a good chance. MOF, has Florio ever picked the Niners to win? hmmm

  40. seattlelibtard says: Jan 9, 2014 3:20 PM

    Geaux Seahawks!
    Also, come on Chargers, you can do it!
    Hoping for a small market team west coast superbowl in NY. That will really piss off the League office.

  41. russellwilsonismymvp says: Jan 9, 2014 3:25 PM

    dvdman123 says:Jan 9, 2014 2:56 PM

    There is no such thing as a “lock” in the NFL.
    ———————-

    Hence the “quotation marks”…genius

  42. Dogsweat says: Jan 9, 2014 3:32 PM

    Lord Kaep will be kissing his arms quite a bit.

    Kaep 41 Panthers 13

  43. all4patriots says: Jan 9, 2014 3:41 PM

    Florio not going with the Patriots, SHOCKING!

    He didn’t use any spygate references either, which is (really, this time) a surprise

  44. bosfaninva says: Jan 9, 2014 3:41 PM

    As long as Tom Brady faces teams with Patriot reject DBs — hello Darius Butler! — the Pats are guaranteed to advance. Book it.

    And don’t forget BLOUNT FORCE TRAUMA!

  45. silentcount says: Jan 9, 2014 3:53 PM

    While small minds act like giddy school girls over the NFC West, two teams in the NFC South will play for the NFC Championship. Saints under the radar just like 2009!

  46. dvdman123 says: Jan 9, 2014 3:54 PM

    I didn’t mean to upset “russellwilsonismymvp” . I’m sure your Seahawks will blow out the Saints…..wink wink.

  47. billharford31 says: Jan 9, 2014 3:58 PM

    the bigger the favorite Manning is, the surest the choke job. I don’t discount by any means the Broncos but if they want to win they need to outscore the Chargers early and put them away. If this game is close in the 4th, look for PM to throw a costly interception due to pressure mounting.

  48. dacktle49 says: Jan 9, 2014 4:00 PM

    Championship Sunday!
    AINTS V 49ERS
    PATS V BOLTS

  49. chawk12thman says: Jan 9, 2014 4:23 PM

    For the record: The four games this weekend will be very good entertaining games and highest T.V. rated thus far this season…….Bet I am right.

    Go Seahawks!

  50. kimbo71006 says: Jan 9, 2014 4:30 PM

    Why?

    The Saints won their first road game ever last week.

    They’re going to a place where they were blown out last time there.

    I saw on ESPN that in the past 7 meetings the Saints are 2-5 against Seattle.

    Like it or not Seattle is the better team. The better team wins the game most of the time.

    Look, it’s football, and anything can happen. I understand the Saints could win the game, but who knows. Looking at it right now, the Seahawks should win this game.

    I will say this. If Seattle’s offense continues to struggle like they did the last 3-4 games of the reg season, the Saints will have an easier path to winning this game.

    I believe the game will be much closer than the previous one.

    I’d like to say good luck to the Saints, and if they’re were playing another team I would, but as a Seahawk fan I can’t.

    Hope it’s a good game with no injuries….

    P.S. Regardless which team wins, their will be some fans of the winning team on here gloating endlessly for few days like children.

    —————————————————–
    Doesn’t matter who the BETTER TEAM is…it matters who the BETTER TEAM is ON THAT DAY. Football games are fickle, up one day, down the next.

    The Cardinals showed that…so don’t count out the Saints.

    Seahawks think they are all that and a bag of chips and a few teams have proven them wrong this year as they DO NOT have a perfect record. The Saints are 10X better than the Cardinals, if they can do it, we can too.

    They said the same thing in 2009 when we won the Superbowl.

    GEAUX SAINTS!!

  51. kimbo71006 says: Jan 9, 2014 4:31 PM

    The Panthers are not all that and have a terrible offense and Cam is not a HOF QB.

    With that being said, they are no where near the team that SF is, on BOTH sides of the ball.

    SF will take this game, no doubts and I’m not even a 49ers fan.

  52. pooflingingmonkey says: Jan 9, 2014 4:36 PM

    So you guys are about as good at picking games as a coin toss?

    Got it. Thanks!

  53. lanman11 says: Jan 9, 2014 6:10 PM

    If everybody left on the Pats roster just does their job, they can beat anyone, anywhere. They may not be household names but they are on the roster for a reason. It will not be easy, but that’s par for this season. They’re not getting all dressed up for nothing. Might as well finish the job.

  54. 4d9erdynasty says: Jan 9, 2014 6:24 PM

    Both defenses are really good. Everyone criticized Kap all season and picks are in for panthers to win this game but Cam didnt really kill it all season. Offense and passing stats are really similar to the 49ers. Both defenses did their job in that week 10 game, but I think everyone is overlooking the fact the niners have Crabtree back and Vernon Davis did not play the bigger portion of that game. Also Kap is playing extremely better than the first matchup. I credit panthers defense for a piece of the struggle but you cannot overlook how limited the niners were offensively most of that game. I think this game will we won in the trenches. Let the best team win. I got Niners 26 Panthers 20.

  55. fnf417 says: Jan 9, 2014 6:54 PM

    49ers Seahawks patriots and chargers is who I’m rooting for this weekend

  56. brazzz01 says: Jan 9, 2014 7:14 PM

    All the QB’s who sent Manning to a one and done:

    McNair
    Fiedler
    Pennington
    Big Ben
    RIVERS
    RIVERS
    Sanchez
    Flacco

    They say bad things happen in threes…HMMM….
    #justsayin

  57. gmsalpha says: Jan 9, 2014 7:20 PM

    Chargers, Colts, 49ers, Seahawks.

    Manning is the greatest regular season QB of all-time.

  58. brazzz01 says: Jan 9, 2014 7:23 PM

    Manning actually went one and done to Mark Sanchez. #looool

  59. imasaintsfanurabitchass says: Jan 9, 2014 9:13 PM

    My Saints are primed and ready to SHOCK THE WORLD!!

  60. angelochung says: Jan 9, 2014 9:52 PM

    brazzz01 says: Jan 9, 2014 7:23 PM

    Manning actually went one and done to Mark Sanchez. #looool
    ———————————————————–
    yeah, so did tom brady. and philip rivers.

  61. denverfandownsouth says: Jan 10, 2014 12:31 AM

    And rothleisburger went one and done to Tim Tebow.

  62. discosucs2005 says: Jan 10, 2014 7:12 AM

    If the Niners and Saints both win, then can we finally destroy Candlestick after that game?

  63. zerohandicapper says: Jan 10, 2014 11:59 AM

    Colts/NE is a toss up
    Seattle/NO is a toss up
    Panthers do not have a chance against the niners.
    Rivers owns Manning

    You heard it here first.

  64. skate185 says: Jan 10, 2014 1:52 PM

    Zero handicapper nails it. Stick a fork in Manning. The jinx continues, Rivers owns Peyton a 3rd time.

  65. milehigh85 says: Jan 10, 2014 4:03 PM

    Good Lord you Chargers fans sure are mouthy…

  66. csr1976 says: Jan 10, 2014 4:18 PM

    So Monday morning after Payton and the Broncos lite up the Chargers:

    The message boards will be filled with the following:

    1. “The Chargers suck they had a terrible record and were a low seed and barely squeaked into the playoffs. and if it wasn’t for Andy Dalton being such a tool the Bangles should have beat them so Payton just did his normal thing beating a crappy team.

    2. Payton still has a 10-11 playoff record so he still sucks and is terrible.

    3. “MEGAHEAD” sucks because he only won by 14 points and if it were the Steelers he would have lost.

    4. He is still a choker because he will loose the next game.

    5. He is only good because he has the best team money can buy. If he had crappy weapons they would have lost.

    6. Modern football is for pu$$ys so if Bart Star were here he would beat him.

    7. It was the altitude

    8. If it were vs. Brady he would have lost so he still sucks.

    Give the man a break he is 37 has robo-neck and he has more records then anyone. Football is a team sport and you guys think that because of one man a team win’s or looses. Had one thing go differently in many of these games he is given 100% blame for he would be a hero. I don’t see anyone blaming Champ for not covering his receivers in that Ravens game last year. Had he done so the game would have been much different but all the focus is on Payton F Manning.

  67. csr1976 says: Jan 10, 2014 5:51 PM

    Oh ya and how could I forget… It was 50 degrees. If it were cold he would have lost. can’t forget that one even though in the last cold game he lit up the other team

  68. mrlaloosh says: Jan 10, 2014 6:16 PM

    For all that’s holy people- ITS LOSE, NOT LOOSE. ITS LOSER, NIT LOOSER! two different words!

  69. seattlesue427 says: Jan 10, 2014 8:30 PM

    Chargers

    Colts

    Panthers

    Seahawks

    Perfect Weekend!

  70. mightymorgan18 says: Jan 10, 2014 11:10 PM

    For everyone that brings up Manning beating Grossman. Fyi- Grossman had a 73.9 rating that year. In 2007, Tom Brady lost to Eli Manning who had a 73.9 rating that year.

    Can we also bring up that Tom Brady has beat Donovan mcnabb and jake delhomme. Really? And Rex Grossman is your argument?

  71. lagg1 says: Jan 11, 2014 4:54 AM

    Denver should win but if they come out tight-i.e., afraid to lose then SD will take it. They are loose. However if Matthews does not play they have problems. I am not impressed with the Denver defense-yet DelRio is getting coaching inquiries?????

  72. 4d9erdynasty says: Jan 12, 2014 5:50 PM

    I tryed to tell u guys!!! Ninerssssss

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