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For fans of favorites, Manning’s teams have delivered the goods

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There has been much said about the visiting Patriots being underdogs in Sunday’s AFC title game at Denver.

Now, let’s take a minute to ponder the Broncos as favorites.

For starters, Denver has been favored in every game this season. In fact, the Broncos have been favored in their last 28 games entering the conference-title round, per Mark Lawrence point spread archives for 2012 and 2013 data from “The Linemakers” of Sporting News.

Overall, the Broncos have won 24 of these 28 games — an .857 winning percentage.

Their starting quarterback in all of those games, of course, was Peyton Manning.

And, as you might expect, the teams Manning has led in his NFL career have generally been favored by oddsmakers.

In fact, since 1998, Manning’s Colts (1998-2010) and Broncos (2012-present) have been favored 203 times, according to Lawrence, “The Linemakers” and Jim Feist point spread data.

And of those 203 games, Manning’s teams have won 157 and lost just 46 — a 77.4 percent win rate.

And since some of you are surely wondering, Manning-led teams have beaten the point spread at about a 54.8 percent rate when favored.

Of course, Manning’s record is far stronger in the regular season than the postseason. For the record, the Colts were 6-7 straight-up when favored in playoff games with Manning, while the Broncos are 1-1 when favored in the last two postseasons. Remarkably, Manning-led teams have been one-and-done as favorites in 1999, 2000, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010 and 2012.

Twice Manning-led teams have won multiple postseason games as favorites. In both seasons — 2006 and 2009 — the Colts made the Super Bowl.

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20 Responses to “For fans of favorites, Manning’s teams have delivered the goods”
  1. green41563 says: Jan 18, 2014 8:43 PM

    How about when favored *in the playoffs*?

  2. elwaysagenius says: Jan 18, 2014 8:48 PM

    None of this has predictive value, not these spreads, nor Mannings failures

  3. misterdreamer119 says: Jan 18, 2014 8:56 PM

    yeah but whats his record against the spread?

  4. ttommytom says: Jan 18, 2014 9:00 PM

    Do the same math with Tom Brady and you will see the Patriots do a bit better than 54%.

    54% is almost breaking even…(jay you ice)

  5. kisstherings says: Jan 18, 2014 9:25 PM

    Lol. Now why don’t you run Brady’s numbers with the same stats.

  6. trevor123698 says: Jan 18, 2014 9:25 PM

    no wonder i feel like i always lose when betting on manning.

  7. bobzilla1001 says: Jan 18, 2014 9:34 PM

    Peyton Manning is an all-time top 5 quarterback. But let’s not forget that he was recruited as a free agent by several teams, opting to play for a Denver team that had won a playoff game with, of all people, Tim Tebow.
    I enjoy everything about Manning: his heart, his desire, his studiousness, his competiveness, his personality and his leadership. But if he really wanted to prove himself, he wouldn’t signed with the Jets, Bills or Jaguars.
    He went to a ready-made playoff contender that he’s made even better. Think how much better his story would be if he had elevated a downtrodden franchise to greatness.

  8. backdapack4evr says: Jan 18, 2014 9:37 PM

    Manning delivers pizza and chokes on them!!

  9. cuda1234 says: Jan 18, 2014 9:44 PM

    Denver’s Tim Tebow won 8 games in two years – that makes him the greatest qb of all time. FREE TIMMY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  10. bigjimatch says: Jan 18, 2014 10:04 PM

    who cares if they won; did they cover the spread?!?

  11. unitasftw says: Jan 18, 2014 10:05 PM

    I see this being a close game. Patriots 56-3

  12. jbaxt says: Jan 18, 2014 10:10 PM

    Yet he’s 9-11 in the playoffs… Or is it 10-11 now?

    Just below the average of Tim Tebow in the playoffs…

    Marino, Montana, Favre, Brady, Rodgers are all better than Manning. So top 10 in the modern era, but bring in guys from the 60’s/70’s and he may not be top 10.

  13. taintedsaints2009 says: Jan 18, 2014 10:26 PM

    Patriots have beaten the broncos quite a few times in a row lately, and I just think the world evens out tomorrow, and the broncos win. What goes around, around.

  14. The League's Crusade Against The Steelers Continues says: Jan 18, 2014 10:32 PM

    Throw out all the stats and predictions. This is playoff football.

  15. zack2482 says: Jan 18, 2014 10:34 PM

    Sick of the Pats. Hope they lose. I think the majority agrees.

  16. kd75 says: Jan 18, 2014 10:59 PM

    But what is Brady’s record as an underdog?

  17. secretomen00 says: Jan 18, 2014 11:05 PM

    you folks need to work on your headline writing. how about: as favorites, manning’s teams deliver the goods.

  18. harrisonhits2 says: Jan 19, 2014 12:00 AM

    There’s a reason they actually play the games.

    The only thing certain about tomorrow is one team will win and one will lose.

  19. scoobies05 says: Jan 19, 2014 1:43 PM

    so you criticize manning’s playoff record but then say that marino(0 superbowls) favre(1 super bowl) and rodgers(1 super bowl) are all better? makes no sense. titles are important but its more than titles. if it was just super bowls, then how come no one ever mentions bradshaw in these discussions

  20. melikefootball says: Jan 19, 2014 6:41 PM

    Good time for the Pats to give all the excuses of how many players have been hurt this year.

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