Colts launch virtually impossible $500,000 game day weather challenge

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Earlier this year, the Rams offered a paltry $100,000 to the fan who accomplished the virtually impossible task of exactly predicting the team’s 2014 regular-season schedule.  The Colts have given fans an equally (if not more) unrealistic chance of winning five times as much money.

From now through August 7 at 12:01 p.m. ET, fans can guess the kickoff temperature for all four preseason and 16 regular-season games, along with whether the roof will be open for the team’s home games.  Anyone who nails all 30 variables will be eligible to win the $500,000.

If more than one person gets everything right, they’ll share the money.  If no one gets the kickoff temperatures and the open/close decision right for all games, no one wins the $500,000.

Here’s our prediction:  No one will get all the variables right.

So why not offer a lot more than $500,000?  Make it $5 million.  Hell, make it $50 million.  The insurance premiums can’t be all that expensive for what amounts to a 20-ball lottery ticket with a range of roughly 20-to-30 possible winning numbers for the first half of the games and a range of roughly 30-to-60 potential winning numbers for the second half of them.

Then again, why even assume a miniscule additional risk for something that will get plenty of buzz when the grand prize is only $500,000?  After all, we’ve written a post about it, which is exactly what the Colts want us and others to do.

Here’s the caveat we’ll add:  It’s an obvious ploy to generate attention, and the rules are designed to make it incredibly hard to win.  Just like the Rams’ contest.

So in other words, it’s a scam.

25 responses to “Colts launch virtually impossible $500,000 game day weather challenge

  1. These are not independent random variables. Whether the roof will be open is tightly correlated to the temperature for that day. Also, the Colts have control over whether the roof is open, and can assure that no one wins by choosing whether to open the roof.

  2. This reminds me of the Dolphins contest.

    Offering $10k to a fan who can kick a 60 yard FG.

    Eventually they moved it to 40 yards which isn’t much easier for a normal fan.

  3. a better contest >>>>>

    Guess Jim Irsay’s ” Blood Alcohol Level ”
    for Pre & Post Game each game this season

    Tie-Breaker will be guess it the night the colts are eliminated from the playoff hunt …the sky is the limit.

  4. The Vikings should offer to give 1 million dollars to every person who buys a season ticket if they win the Super Bowl. No risk that they’d have to pay out and they’d generate some interest in their squad.

  5. In a much less publicized promotion, the Colts are also offering $500,000 to any fan who can identify all the contents of Jim Irsay’s blood stream.

  6. cowpiesnotcowboys says:
    Jul 14, 2014 8:20 AM
    These are not independent random variables. Whether the roof will be open is tightly correlated to the temperature for that day. Also, the Colts have control over whether the roof is open, and can assure that no one wins by choosing whether to open the roof.
    ———————————————————–

    Roof open in Indy? I live here and they don’t open the roof if the temp is below 80 and there is a cloud in the Mid-West. Biggest waste of taxpayer financing I’ve ever seen, unless you happen to be the brother-in-law of the construction company or better, the bureaucrat tasked with approving the deals. Then you made out like a bandit.

  7. .
    Why would a successful business organization like the NFL allow such nonsense to tarnish the shield?
    .

  8. The Vikings should offer to give 1 million dollars to every person who buys a season ticket if they win the Super Bowl. No risk that they’d have to pay out and they’d generate some interest in their squad.
    _______

    That wouldn’t be a real incentive for any true long-time Viking fan. After what we’ve seen, we know there will never be a Super Bowl for our club. But we still show up, which is the true measure of a great fan.

  9. The Vikings should offer to give 1 million dollars to every person who buys a season ticket if they win the Super Bowl. No risk that they’d have to pay out and they’d generate some interest in their squad.
    _______

    That wouldn’t be a real incentive for any true long-time Viking fan. After what we’ve seen, we know there will never be a Super Bowl for our club. But we still show up, which is the true measure of a great fan.

    ————–

    Well, I guess some of us expect a little more out of our squad, but if you’re just happy having a place to go hang out and watch your squad play football 8 Sundays out of the year, more power to you…

  10. Valiant effort on the part of Irsay to flush out either a witch, a time traveler, or someone with supernatural control over the weather.

    But those types are usually too crafty for a trap like this. Amirite?

  11. Running promotional contests is just good marketing and has been done if sports for decades. If it drives conversation and better yet web hits, it is successful.

    Surely, it is no worse that a blog with a misleading headline or posting a controversial stance in order to drive hits to a website.

  12. jlinatl says: Jul 14, 2014 9:59 AM

    Running promotional contests is just good marketing and has been done if sports for decades. If it drives conversation and better yet web hits, it is successful.

    Surely, it is no worse that a blog with a misleading headline or posting a controversial stance in order to drive hits to a website.
    ————-
    Someone gets it.

  13. This is not mathmatically possible. You figure there’s a 1/40 chance on a given day of guessing the temperature right, and a 1/2 chance of getting roof right – for each game you have a 1/80 chance. Multiply 80 by 80 sixteen times and you get the odds of getting this right (rougly 2 and 30 zeroes after it).

    No one will win but it gets another headline, which isalways good.

  14. If you choose not to participate in the contest then try just clicking off the article…it’s INEVITABLE Jim Irsay & his COLTS are targeted NOW more then ever after Irsay was arrested. He has an illness!!!!! But I’m sure EVERYONE SLAMMING him have ZERO SKELETONS in THEIR OWN CLOSETS. I don’t care if you are an owner of a professional sports team,an actor,a bus boy waitress, laborer, or the President of the USA…NOT ONE OF US ARE PERFECT…WE ALL FALL SHORT IN THAT AREA…funny how some are so quick to kick others while their down. So The Colts have offered $500,000 to ANYONE LUCKY ENOUGH to guess the temperature @ Kickoff of All their games and whether or not the roof will be opened or closed for their home games…whoopty !!!!!! They could be donating to charities and doing community services(which they do) and if it were put into an article, I GURANTEE YOU THERE WOULD BE CLOWNS CONTINUING TO CRITIQUE,MOCK,AND POKE JOKES AT IRSAY & HIS ORGANIZATION…I’m not too naive to believe otherwise, but the sad thing I keep seeing is the Colts fanbase joining in…GET OFF IT ALREADY!!!! IRSAY HAS BEEN A GREAT OWNER AND HAS THE RESPECT OF HIS PLAYERS & COACHES BOTH PAST & PRESENT AS WELL THE RESPECT OF HIS PEERS PAST & PRESENT IN THE NFL. As a Indianapolis Colts Fan for over 25 yrs & a native Hoosier of Indiana, I am PROUD of Our Organization as well as their stadium. Lucas Oil Stadium IS TOP OF THE LINE in regard to football stadiums and The Colts have had The Roof OPEN more then some have claimed. Having a retractable roof IS WHY THE DON’T PLAY THEIR HOME GAMES in bad weather. It IS A SLIGHT ADVANTAGE AND THATS WHY WE HAVE PLAYED IN CONTROLLED ENVIRONMENTS SINCE THE MAYFLOWER ROLLED INTO TOWN DURING THE MID 80’s….some people just like to complain for the sake of complaining. The Colts WILL Have A Great Season & I for one cannot wait til we are playing so I don’t have to waste time on defending my team against non stop SLAMMING of its owner which ALWAYS trickles down to the players and team(as a whole) .

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