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PFT’s Week One picks

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It’s a new year; everyone is 0-0.  That includes MDS and yours truly.  Which is good since he whipped my butt in 2013.

But this could be my year to do the whipping in the 256-game PFT Picks showdown.  We disagree on four of the first 16 games, so there’s a chance I’ll establish an early lead.

There’s probably an even better chance I’ll land in a pothole.

For all the picks, keep doing what you’ve been doing for the last four paragraphs.

Packers at Seahawks

MDS’s take: The Seahawks have been so dominant at home that the NFL tries not to schedule prime time games in Seattle because the Seahawks jump out to such big leads that viewers turn off the games early and go to bed. I think the Packers’ offense is good enough to prevent that from happening and keep Green Bay in the game, but Seattle will win it.

MDS’s pick: Seahawks 27, Packers 20.

Florio’s take:  After the Super Bowl champion won every Thursday night opener since the format was adopted, the last two have lost.  The trend ends at CenturyLink Field.  Getcha Richter scale read; the Seahawks may be even better this year.

Florio’s pick:  Seahawks 27, Packers 20.

Saints at Falcons

MDS’s take: The Saints are my pick to win the NFC South, and they’ll take a big step toward that title by starting the season with a divisional road win.

MDS’s pick: Saints 31, Falcons 20.

Florio’s take:  Losing the first game of the season doesn’t create a major problem unless the loss comes at home to a division rival.  The Falcons need to hold serve if they hope to rebound from a disastrous 2013.  But the Saints may be even better than last year.

Florio’s pick:  Saints 30, Falcons 24.

Vikings at Rams

MDS’s take: Shaun Hill is going to surprise a lot of people and turn in a solid season in place of Sam Bradford this year. I’m not picking another Kurt Warner/Trent Green situation, but I am picking the Rams to be better than anyone thinks, and to get it started with a win over a rebuilding Vikings team.

MDS’s pick: Rams 24, Vikings 20.

Florio’s take:  The Vikings finally will have balance on offense.  The Rams suddenly won’t.  Sometimes, it’s that simple.

Florio’s pick:  Vikings 16, Rams 10.

Browns at Steelers

MDS’s take: The Steelers are preparing to see both Brian Hoyer and Johnny Manziel on Sunday. I think Pittsburgh’s defense will do just fine against both of them.

MDS’s pick: Steelers 17, Browns 10.

Florio’s take:  Brian Hoyer, Johnny Manziel, Bernie Kosar, Brian Sipe, Otto Graham.  It won’t matter on Week One in the year the Steelers are honoring the late Chuck Noll.

Florio’s pick:  Steelers 20, Browns 7.

Jaguars at Eagles

MDS’s take: The Jaguars have taken a bigger step forward this offseason than most people realize, and they won’t be pushovers anymore. But Philadelphia will be a tough place to play this year, and the Eagles will take this one.

MDS’s pick: Eagles 28, Jaguars 23.

Florio’s take:  The Eagles ended the 2013 season with a disappointing loss at home.  They’ll start 2014 with one of their easier home dates, especially since the Jaguars have the wrong guy at quarterback.

Florio’s pick:  Eagles 27, Jaguars 20.

Raiders at Jets

MDS’s take: The Raiders made the right call by starting rookie Derek Carr at quarterback, and the Jets’ cornerback situation is bad enough that Carr should hit on some big plays in his first NFL game. However, Rex Ryan’s defensive schemes will pressure Carr into at least three turnovers, and that will be the difference.

MDS’s pick: Jets 20, Raiders 17.

Florio’s take:  The Raiders haven’t won a game on the East Coast since December 2009.  Coming to town a few days early likely won’t change that.  Especially since the Raiders are breaking in a rookie quarterback and are featuring a bunch of veterans who were available this offseason for a reason.

Florio’s pick:  Jets 17, Raiders 10.

Bengals at Ravens

MDS’s take: All the offseason talk has been about Andy Dalton, but I expect the Bengals to have one of the NFL’s best defenses this season, and that’s why they’ll be the best team in the division, starting Sunday in Baltimore.

MDS’s pick: Bengals 17, Ravens 14.

Florio’s take:  Cincinnati is breaking in a pair of new offensive coordinators.  Baltimore is breaking in a new offense.  Steve Smith may break someone’s jaw.  Advantage home team.

Florio’s pick:  Ravens 20, Bengals 17.

Bills at Bears

MDS’s take: In Marc Trestman’s second year as head coach, the Bears will have one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses. The Bills just won’t be able to keep up.

MDS’s pick: Bears 31, Bills 13.

Florio’s takeEJ Manuel won’t be wearing a “C” on his jersey.  But he will be wearing a Jared Allen.

Florio’s pick:  Bears 28, Bills 13.

Washington at Texans

MDS’s take: J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney will be chasing Robert Griffin III all over the field, and the Texans will get off to a 1-0 start after losing their last 14 games in 2013.

MDS’s pick: Texans 20, Washington 10.

Florio’s take:  A couple of new coaches of teams that combined for five wins last year square off.  Somehow, one of these two squads will emerge with a “W”.  While Washngton could have the better season, Houston will have the better day.

Florio’s pick:  Texans 17, Washington 10.

Titans at Chiefs

MDS’s take: I think the Chiefs will take a step backward this season after their surprising playoff berth last year, but starting at home against the Titans should be one of the easiest games on their schedule.

MDS’s pick: Chiefs 21, Titans 13.

Florio’s take:  While the Chiefs likely will take a step back in 2014, it won’t begin against a team that has all the sizzle of a bowl of unflavored gelatin.

Florio’s pick:  Chiefs 27, Titans 17.

Patriots at Dolphins

MDS’s take: We’ve heard a lot about how the Dolphins have changed their offense to run at a faster pace, but I just don’t think Miami has the personnel to match up with New England, which remains the best team in the AFC East.

MDS’s pick: Patriots 24, Dolphins 10.

Florio’s take:  With a much better defense and a still-potent offense, the Patriots launch the 10-year anniversary of their last Super Bowl-winning season with a performance that could put them back there, again.

Florio’s pick:  Patriots 34, Dolphins 24.

Panthers at Buccaneers

MDS’s take: Carolina got worse this offseason and Tampa Bay got better. The Lovie Smith era will start with a win that provides Tampa with some optimism, which was sorely lacking during the Greg Schiano era.

MDS’s pick: Buccaneers 23, Panthers 20.

Florio’s take:  Of all the divisions in the NFL, the NFC South has featured the most bottom-to-top turmoil.  It starts early this year, with last year’s basement dweller topping last year’s champion in a showdown between Panthers coach Ron Rivera and the guy who fired him in Chicago.

Florio’s pick:  Buccaneers 21, Panthers 17

49ers at Cowboys

MDS’s take: I think the Cowboys are going to be better than most people expect this year, with DeMarco Murray running behind a good offensive line and giving them a balanced attack on offense. And I think the 49ers are going to be worse than most people expect this year, with the absence of NaVorro Bowman and Aldon Smith at the start of the season hurting their defense. So I’m picking Dallas.

MDS’s pick: Cowboys 28, 49ers 24.

Florio’s take:  It’s been a long time since these were the best two teams in the NFC.  The Cowboys could take a major step back from their perpetual 8-8 record, and the 49ers may be unable to get close to another NFC title game.  In fact, there’s a chance that the Cowboys could win this one.  I thought about making that pick.  And then I remembered how bad the defense is.

Florio’s pick:  49ers 24, Cowboys 20.

Colts at Broncos

MDS’s take: The Broncos’ offense won’t be quite as good this year as it was last year, but it will still be plenty good. And I see big holes on the Colts’ defense. Indianapolis won’t be able to keep up.

MDS’s pick: Broncos 30, Colts 20.

Florio’s take:  Last year, former Colts quarterback Peyton Manning returned to Indy and lost.  This year, the Colts travel to Denver and Manning gets a measure of revenge.  Along with a lot of yards and touchdowns.

Florio’s pick:  Broncos 34, Colts 21.

Giants at Lions

MDS’s take: There are major concerns about the Lions’ secondary, and Eli Manning may be able to take advantage of Detroit’s cornerback situation. But Matthew Stafford has so many weapons that he’ll put up even bigger numbers than Manning, and the Lions will win a high-scoring game.

MDS’s pick: Lions 35, Giants 31.

Florio’s take:  New York’s new offense is a work in progress.  But it’s not making much progress, and it isn’t really working.  The Lions have the talent to score a lot more points than whatever the Giants can muster against a Detroit defense that still has plenty of question marks.

Florio’s pick:  Lions 30, Giants 20.

Chargers at Cardinals

MDS’s take: Carson Palmer is going to have a better season than most people expect, and it starts in the late Monday night game against a Chargers defense that is going to have a rough year.

MDS’s pick: Cardinals 33, Chargers 27.

Florio’s take:  Arizona has become a trendy pick for those willing to forget that Karlos Dansby, Darryl Washington, and Darnell Dockett are gone for the year.  The Chargers flew under radar for most of 2013.  They won’t in 2014.

Florio’s pick:  Chargers 27, Cardinals 23.

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Bills release 11 players in addition to Fred Jackson

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Running back Fred Jackson’s release is the headline for the Bills ahead of Tuesday’s deadline to cut rosters to 75 players, but there are plenty of other guys out of work in Buffalo as well.

The Bills have dropped 11 other players from the roster, leaving them with 77 players and two more moves to make to reach Tuesday’s limit.

Among the group is cornerback Ross Cockrell, who was a fourth-round pick by the team last year. He had one tackle in seven appearances with the team as a rookie.

The Bills also released defensive end Michael Buchanan, defensive tackle Justin Hamilton, linebacker Andrew Hudson, tackle Terren Jones, cornerback Ellis Lankster, safety Kenny Ladler, safety Wes Miller, guard D.J. Morrell, defensive end Cedric Reed and running back Ricky Seale.

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Broncos send Chris Clark to Texans for 2016 pick

Chris Clark AP

The two teams that have hired Gary Kubiak as a head coach have come together on a trade that will send tackle Chris Clark to Houston.

The Denver Post reports that the Broncos will get a 2016 seventh-round pick in return for Clark. The deal will not be official until Clark passes a physical with the Texans.

Clark has spent the last five years with the Broncos and started most of the 2013 season on the left side after Denver lost Ryan Clady to a foot injury. Clady is out again this year after tearing his ACL, but Ty Sambrailo and Ryan Harris have the starting jobs with 2014 third-rounder Michael Schofield set for swing tackle duties.

Clark gives the Texans some insurance in the event Duane Brown’s hand injury keeps him out into the regular season. The Texans started undrafted rookie Kendall Lamm at left tackle in Sunday’s game against the Saints. Clark also has played on the right side, so he’ll give Houston an experienced option behind Derek Newton as well.

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Kirk Cousins is indeed the Week One starter

Kirk Cousins AP

If the goal for the Washington football organization is to confuse anyone and everyone possible, mission accomplished.

There’s currently one less area of confusion. Per multiple sources, and confirming multiple reports, quarterback Kirk Cousins will start in Week One against Miami.

“He’s the head coach and it’s his call,” one source said. “All are on board with the process and support the coach.”

That’s consistent with our report from last night that there’s no schism between the coaching staff/front office and owner Daniel Snyder. The owner is letting the football people manage the football team, with G.M. Scot McCloughan deciding who is on the roster and coach Jay Gruden deciding who plays and who doesn’t.

Griffin remains cleared to practice but not play. The goal as of last night was to give Griffin until next week to re-take the concussion test, in the hopes that he’ll pass it. Gruden apparently wasn’t comfortable proceeding under the assumption that Griffin will be cleared in time for the game. That approach would have set the stage for another potential Griffin-is-cleared-no-he’s-not episode.

The fact that Cousins is getting the start may not be cause for celebrating and/or fantasy-football squatter’s rights. He showed promise against the Jaguars and Eagles last year before a Thursday night four-pick disaster against the Giants and an eventual benching for Colt McCoy.

Perhaps the goal this year is to throw Cousins to the wolves in Week One and Week Two (Dolphins and Rams) before putting Griffin on the field against the Giants, whose defense isn’t what it used to be.

Also, by then there’s a good chance fans will actually be clamoring for Griffin. Or maybe McCoy. Again.

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Broncos get roster down to 79, cut Zac Dysert and Reggie Walker

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The Broncos cut quarterback Zac Dysert and veteran linebacker Reggie Walker among a flurry of cuts, as they pared their roster to 79 in advance of tomorrow’s deadline.

They also placed tight end Jeff Heuerman, this year’s third-round pick, on injured reserve.

The Broncos waived cornerback Tevrin Brandon, guard Andre Davis, tight end Joe Don Duncan, punter Spencer Lanning, safety Ross Madison, tight end Jake Murphy, running back Jeremy Stewart and linebacker Chase Vaughn.

Walker was signed in March in free agency, but fell behind some younger players. Lanning was claimed off waivers earlier this month but wasn’t going to unseat Britton Colquitt.

Dysert lost the third quarterback job (if the Broncos keep three) to rookie Trevor Siemian.

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Bills dump veteran RB Fred Jackson

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The Bills have cut veteran running back Fred Jackson, making Jackson the most notable name of the early cuts leaguewide.

Jackson, 34, has amassed over 1,000 total yards in five of the last six seasons. He started nine games and played in 14 last season.

He was due to make $2.35 million this season.

The move indicates the Bills believe LeSean McCoy, who’s been out the last two weeks, will be ready for the team’s Sept. 13 season opener. It also gives Jackson, who’s played his entire career in Buffalo, the chance to catch on with another team as a free agent. With many teams across the league dealing with injuries at the running back or just looking to bolster their backfields, Jackson likely won’t be unemployed for long.

In a team statement, Bills general manager Doug Whaley said Jackson had “an incredible career” in Buffalo and thanked Jackson for his “hard work, dedication and leadership.”

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Jaguars trade kicker Josh Scobee to the Steelers

Josh Scobee AP

The Steelers quest to find a healthy kicker has le them to trade for one.

According to Jeff Prosser of 1010XL in Jacksonville, Scobee is already en route to the Steelers.

Scobee was the longest-tenured Jaguars player, having worked for them since 2004, when he was chosen in the fifth round. They’re now handing the job to rookie Jason Myers.

The Steelers lost Shaun Suisham to a torn ACL in the preseason opener, and replacement Garrett Hartley suffered a hamstring injury Saturday that looked like it was going to keep him out of the regular season opener.

Now the Steelers have a reliable veteran in the last year of his contract, giving them some stability at the position going into the season.

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Mara shows up for Brady hearing

John Mara AP

The NFL didn’t want him to do it. And he didn’t want to do it. But Giants co-owner John Mara has arrived at the federal courthouse in Manhattan for Monday’s latest hearing in the litigation arising from Tom Brady’s four-game suspension.

Via Ian Rapoport of NFL Media, Judge Richard M. Berman requested Mara to be present, and so Mara is present.

“Requested” is probably putting it mildly. The case filed by the league in Judge Berman’s court listed only one party as the plaintiff: The National Football League Management Council. Mara, not Commissioner Roger Goodell, is the chairman of the NFL Management Council. So Judge Berman has every right to not request but to demand that Mara attend.

The real question is whether other owners will be involved, in person or by phone. The entire NFL Management Council Executive Committee routinely accompanied Goodell for labor negotiations in 2011; why not do the same now?

And spare me the “this is about the Commissioner’s powers” nonsense. Currently, the case is about whether the specific exercise of power by the Commissioner on behalf of the NFL will be upheld or overturned in court. It’s not longer a Commissioner issue. It’s an NFL issue.

Specifically, it’s an NFL Management Council issue. Which is why Mara has been “requested” to attend.

The only question remaining is whether Mara’s presence will soften the league’s position. If, as some believe, Mara is one of the owners pushing Goodell to stand firm, and if Judge Berman can successfully persuade Mara directly — not through messengers or emissaries — on the potential consequences of not settling, Mara may soften and, in turn, the NFL may soften.

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Jeris Pendleton among first round of Colts cuts

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The Colts have confirmed the release of guard Donald Thomas along with 13 other moves that leave the team with 76 players.

Among the most recognizable of the names that have been dropped from the roster is defensive tackle Jeris Pendleton. Pendleton spent the last two seasons with the team, although a knee injury left him on injured reserve for all of the 2014 season. The Colts brought him back on June 30, but his second stint in Indianapolis has come to an end.

The Colts also placed cornerback Tevin Mitchel on injured reserve. Mitchel was a sixth-round pick by the Redskins this year, but was waived after suffering a torn labrum in his shoulder. The Colts claimed him and will wait until next year to see if he can contribute to the defense.

Guard Harland Gunn, linebacker Nicklas Haag, linebacker Zack Hodges, tackle Tyler Hoover, wide receiver Ezell Ruffin, linebacker Justin Shirk, tight end Justin Sinz, running back Abou Toure, center Brandon Vitabile, wide receiver Ryan Lankford and cornerback Donald Celiscar rounded out the cuts for the Colts.

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Pettine: Thursday’s game isn’t “make or break” for Terrelle Pryor

Terrelle Pryor AP

Terrelle Pryor wasn’t in the lineup for the Browns on Saturday as the team held him out a few days after he returned to practice after healing from a hamstring injury that kept him out of the first two preseason contests.

Browns coach Mike Pettine said a little more than a week ago that the window for Pryor making the team “narrows every day that he’s not out there.” The message was a bit different late last week with Pettine saying that the Browns know Pryor’s move to wide receiver makes him a project that requires patience if it is going to work out. As a result, the coach won’t say Pryor has to play this week to make the team.

“I don’t want to say make or break,” Pettine said, via “I’m not going to deal with an absolute, saying he has to play, but we want to see him out there. I can’t say today that he definitely will, but he should be. He was close to being able to go, and give it another week, we’re hopeful he’ll be out there and we’ll be able to see him.”

Pryor would likely draw attention from other teams if the Browns cut him loose, although that alone isn’t reason enough to keep him on the roster. The best argument for that is the dearth of playmakers on the Browns offense and the glimpses of that potential that Pryor has shown in his too-brief appearances at practice for the Browns to this point in his tenure with the team. Things may not play out that way, but there doesn’t seem to be much reason to change course if the Browns were already prepared to be patient with Pryor’s development.

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Wide receiver Denarius Moore among Bengals early cuts

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Once upon a time, Denarius Moore was a good receiving prospect.

But not even reuniting him with the coach who led him to his best work helped him keep a job this year.

The Bengals just announced that Moore was among their cuts today in advance of tomorrow’s deadline to get to 75.

Moore averaged 18.7 yards per catch in 2011 as a rookie in Oakland under Hue Jackson, so there was a reasonable hope he might rekindle that magic under the Bengals offensive coordinator now. But he didn’t do nearly enough in the preseason (one catch in three games) to make it a worthwhile project for the Bengals to pursue.

The Bengals also waived defensive tackle Kwame Geathers, linebacker Nico Johnson, defensive end Sam Montgomery, offensive lineman Chris Jasperse, wide receiver Desmond Lawrence and tight end John Peters.

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Report: Martavis Bryant’s suspension didn’t surprise Steelers

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Martavis Bryant’s emergence last season helped the Steelers become the league’s most productive offense, and over the last month Bryant has looked like he’s going to be a star.

But last week’s news that Bryant will start the 2015 season by serving a four-game suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy was not a surprise to the Steelers. Per Gerry Dulac of the Pittsbugh Post-Gazette, the Steelers knew of Bryant’s failed drug tests as far back as last spring.

The four-game suspension for Bryant suggests he’s been caught breaking the league’s policy more than once. If he fails another test, he’ll be suspended for 10 games.

As a bit of Bryant insurance, the Steelers took a big receiver in the third round of last spring’s draft, Sammie Coates, and the plan was for Coates to be brought along slowly the way Bryant was last year. Per Dulac, Steelers coach Mike Tomlin believes Coates did not come to camp in peak condition.

Bryant was inactive for the first six games last year before catching eight touchdown passes and averaging 21.2 yards per reception. The four-game suspension will cost him games against the Patriots, 49ers, Rams and Ravens.

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Falcons shrink roster to 76 players

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The Falcons clipped the wings of 13 players and placed tackle Lamar Holmes on the regular season PUP list to get their roster to 76 players ahead of Tuesday’s deadline for the first round of cuts this summer.

Holmes broke his foot this offseason and will be ineligible to rejoin the team for practices or games for the first six weeks of the regular season. The injury kept Holmes from getting fully immersed in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, which may limit his chances to contribute once he’s healthy.

The Falcons also parted ways with veteran linebacker Terrell Manning and journeyman tight end Mickey Shuler on Sunday.

The rest of the cuts were linebacker Boris Anyama, wide receiver Marquez Clark, running back Michael Ford, wide receiver John Harris, defensive tackle Warren Herring, nose tackle Derrick Hopkins, tackle Matt Huffer, cornerback Michael Lee, guard Eric Lefeld, defensive end Sam Meredith and center Valerian Ume-Ezeoke.

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Lovie Smith: Offensive line play “unacceptable”

Desmond Bryant, Jameis Winston AP

The Buccaneers hope they have their quarterback for years to come in Jameis Winston and now they need to work on finding offensive linemen who can do more than help him up after taking a hit from an opposing defensive player.

Winston has been sacked seven times in three preseason games, which is more than any other quarterback in the league, and he was dropped four times by the Browns on Saturday night. Tampa’s starting a pair of rookies and third-round right guard Ali Marpet struggled mightily against Cleveland. On Sunday, coach Lovie Smith said he’s seen progress from the group but the overall body of work leaves much to be desired.

“We had some bad plays last night, yes, along our offensive line,” Smith said, via the Tampa Bay Times. “It’s like that most games, though. You have some plays you’d like to have back. Good plays on their part. Looking at the overall picture, just like before when we played a lot better, you take everything in, which we will do. But that play last night, for the most part, was unacceptable for us, and we’ll fix it.”

They’ll have to because their current pace of sacks allowed would leave Winston in David Carr territory come the end of the regular season. The pounding Carr took in his rookie season with the Texans put him on the path to being a disappointment, which held the franchise back and serves as a warning for the Bucs as they ready their own first overall pick for his first NFL year.

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Browns begin the process of getting to 75 with some vet cuts

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The Browns began the process of getting to the 75-man roster limit by tomorrow’s deadline, cutting several veterans in the process.

The team announced they had cut linebackers Everette Brown and Moise Fokou, running back Jalen Parmele and cornerback Aaron Ross.

None of those names are necessarily surprises, though Fokou did start 12 games for the Titans last year before he was cut late in the year, picking up with the Saints to close the season.

The Browns also waived tight end Anthony Ezeakunne and wide receiver Shane Wynn.

Those moves get the Browns down to 84, meaning there are nine more moves to be made by tomorrow afternoon.

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Robert Griffin III won’t take concussion test until next week

Robert Griffin III AP

The Washington organization might on the same page as it pertains to their quarterback plan, but it appears that for now it involves Kirk Cousins starting the opener.

According to Tom Pelissero of USA Today, incumbent starter Robert Griffin III won’t re-take his concussion test until next week, clearing the way for Cousins to start the first regular season game.

The perception of dysfunction may be as damaging as the reality of their dysfunction, as they can’t even keep doctors on the same page regarding Griffin’s condition, or whether he had a concussion or not, or whether he’s cleared or not.

Regardless, the timing will keep him off the field for this week, but won’t keep the swirl of stories from continuing.

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