Jaguars aim to be first double-digit underdogs to win in Week One since 2008

AP

For a team that’s a combined 6-26 the last two seasons, the Jaguars are generating a decent amount of positive buzz. The early reviews on rookie quarterback Blake Bortles — still the backup for now — are promising, and the club has built a solid defense. Two of PFT’s writers even selected the Jaguars to make the 2014 postseason.

However, while the best might be ahead for the Jaguars, the Week One point spreads suggest they still have some work to do. No team is a bigger underdog in the opening week than Jacksonville, which visits Philadelphia on Sunday. The Eagles, the defending NFC East champions, are 10-point favorites.

According to the Spreadapedia point spread database, the Jaguars are the 34th double-digit underdog in Week One since 1978. Overall, these underdogs of 10 points or more are just 6-27 in their openers. Only the 2008 Bears (at Indianapolis), 2003 Texans (at Miami), 2001 Panthers (at Minnesota), 1992 Steelers (at Houston), 1985 Vikings (at San Francisco) and 1981 Chiefs (at Pittsburgh) have managed to pull off upsets.

Of these six surprising underdogs, only the 1992 Steelers made the postseason. And they did not win a playoff game, falling to Buffalo in the divisional round. Nevertheless, it was a nice start to Bill Cowher’s tenure as head coach.

Finally, history suggests the Jaguars have a better chance of beating the spread than beating Philadelphia outright. Per Spreadapedia, underdogs of 10-plus points are 17-14-1 against the number in Week One.

34 responses to “Jaguars aim to be first double-digit underdogs to win in Week One since 2008

  1. I’m not doubting these guys this year. Something tells me they’re going to put it together. I really like what Gus has done in his short time there.

  2. sandman34rt says: Sep 5, 2014 1:47 PM

    Why not, it’s the NFL, anything can happen

    Plus the Eagles are so overrated it’s not even funny

    ————————–

    Eagles are not overrated. They are a team that went from worst (4-12) to first (10-6) last year and are now entering year 2 under Chip Kelly. I agree that anything can happen on “Any Given Sunday” but just stating that a team is “so overrated” without anything to back it up is not a good look.

  3. thegreatgabbert says:
    Sep 5, 2014 2:00 PM
    Jags got blown out in their final game last year. As badly as any of the early season blowouts. The arrow is pointing all over the place.

    ____________________________________

    The Jags arrow has been pointing up since they got rid of the worst football player to ever play in the NFL (Lame Goobert).

  4. If that happened, 95% of Survivor Leagues may end Week 1.

    Pretty sure this game is everyone’s “Lock of the Week”.

    Eagles – 30
    Jags – 17

  5. Gamblers who pick games don’t adhere to foolish pronouncements like “it’s the NFL and anything can happen” theory of betting. They leave that to the losers.

  6. @gumbogumbo

    I think the main reason is people just seeem to forget the other side of the football. I.E. giving up 48 points to the Vikings when the eagles had playoff implications on the line. Oh yeah, Adrian Peterson didn’t even play. Not saying the eagles aren’t good. I just think they are a little overrated if people think they’ll be 12-4 or better or something. It’s just not happening.

  7. Haven’t read above comments, but I’m picking the upset. Not only that, the Jags will challenge for the AFCS this year.

    All-world Andrew Luck is in for a big surprise. Or would it just be the pundits who have anointed him?

  8. “Eagles are not overrated. They are a team that went from worst (4-12) to first (10-6) last year and are now entering year 2 under Chip Kelly. I agree that anything can happen on “Any Given Sunday” but just stating that a team is “so overrated” without anything to back it up is not a good look.”

    Sure i’ll back it up. They were 10-6 in a weak division last year.

    Nick Foles played like crazy, does anyone think he’s doing that again?

    Yes, Mccoy is very good. There WR’s scare no one.

    There D is nothing special at all

    When did Chip Kelly become Vince Lombardi?

    They very well may win the division again, but not because they are this amazing team. It’s because the Cowboys, giants and redskins are weak this year.

    They are an ok team in a weak division and ive seen so many people overrating them.

  9. People gonna learn about Gus and the excellence he brings with him from the Emerald City. They may not beat the Eagles but they will beat some teams this year and the needle is definitely pointing up..

  10. .
    Perhaps large underdogs have not fared well on week one, but there are usually several upsets. With the transient nature of today’s rosters it’s difficult to gauge teams until the real games begin.
    .

  11. pillowporkers says: Sep 5, 2014 2:37 PM

    @gumbogumbo

    I think the main reason is people just seeem to forget the other side of the football. I.E. giving up 48 points to the Vikings when the eagles had playoff implications on the line. Oh yeah, Adrian Peterson didn’t even play. Not saying the eagles aren’t good. I just think they are a little overrated if people think they’ll be 12-4 or better or something. It’s just not happening.
    —————————
    I agree that the Eagles defense is not as good as the Eagles offense and could use some upgrades. Yes, they gave up 48 points to the Vikings last year but the very next week they gave up 11 points to the Bears (the Bears could’ve won their division with a win and were 2nd highest scoring offense). Inconsistency was the Eagles problem on D. They added Malcom Jenkins and cut Patrick Chung. They also added Nolan Carroll so they can run dime or sub for an injury without having to trot out guys like Carmichael/Marsh (both also got cut). Anyone can make #’s say what they want.

  12. Here is what we know about the Jags. They have a career backup at QB, no receivers, and a new running back (Peterson’s backup) who is a north south kind of guy and nor really special. Their O line is average and hasn’t played together enough to form any type of continuity. Their defense which generated no pass rush last year has added a couple of older free agents who should help. Right now the D as a whole are slightly above average. This game any way you cut it is a bad matchup for the Jags to start the season. The Eagles had the second best offense in football last year their first under Kelly. They will unleash new weapons like Maclin, Ertz, and Sproles to go with last years top ranked running back McCoy and top rated QB Foles. Their defense which improved as the season wore on last year will have no problem stifling the Jags tepid attack. The Jags will not win the game and their chance of covering the spread is poor.

  13. sandman34rt says: Sep 5, 2014 2:47 PM

    “Eagles are not overrated. They are a team that went from worst (4-12) to first (10-6) last year and are now entering year 2 under Chip Kelly. I agree that anything can happen on “Any Given Sunday” but just stating that a team is “so overrated” without anything to back it up is not a good look.”

    Sure i’ll back it up. They were 10-6 in a weak division last year. (AGREED)

    Nick Foles played like crazy, does anyone think he’s doing that again? (OF COURSE NOT)

    Yes, Mccoy is very good. There WR’s scare no one. (THEIR NOT THERE)

    There D is nothing special at all (ONCE AGAIN IT’S THEIR NOT THERE & I AGREE)

    When did Chip Kelly become Vince Lombardi? (NOBODY HAS EVER SAID THAT)

    They very well may win the division again, but not because they are this amazing team. It’s because the Cowboys, giants and redskins are weak this year. (WHO SAID THEY’RE AMAZING?)

    They are an ok team in a weak division and ive seen so many people overrating them. (THAT’S JUST LIKE YOUR OPINION, MAN)

  14. Ahhh i see you went the grammar route, clear sign of defeat.

    “When did Chip Kelly become Vince Lombardi? (NOBODY HAS EVER SAID THAT)” Umm you are implying by saying this is the 2nd year under chip kelly? who cares, who’s chip kelly?

    “They very well may win the division again, but not because they are this amazing team. It’s because the Cowboys, giants and redskins are weak this year. (WHO SAID THEY’RE AMAZING?)” Ummm everyone that is overrating them.

    “They are an ok team in a weak division and ive seen so many people overrating them. (THAT’S JUST LIKE YOUR OPINION, MAN)” What? Yeah this whole thing has been my opinion.

  15. And the Pats have played in a weak division for years and it means nothing. You play the schedule and in this case the Eagles play a 1st place schedule against teams like the Hawks and 49ers. As a group the Eagles are clearly have one of the best receiver sets in football. Talk is cheap so will just have to wait and see what Maclin, Cooper, Mathews, Celik, Ertz, Sproles, and McCoy do once they have the ball.

  16. There’s just too many good football players on the offensive side of the ball on this eagles team . Factor in chip Kelly is running the show and there’s no way this team isn’t gonna be a handful for teams week in week out. How many guys had career years in this offense last year? Let’s see the whole offensive line, both starting wrs, the rb, the qb, and all of a sudden celek is one of the best blocking tight ends in the league. Are there people still doubting my boy chip? Why so jealous?

  17. Nothing to do about jealously its about fact…
    One and Done at home in the playoffs since when is that some great accomplishment the Shannys did that the year before and where are they now. Questionable moves in the offseason… You Eagle fans cannot be happy with Chips move and explanation cutting DJAX. You will miss 82 catches 1300 yds and 9 tds neither Maclin or Cooper have ever broke 1000 yds in their careers. Mathews has shown potential but has also been inconsistent in the preseason he will not replace DJAX like you seem to believe. Other than Mathews the Eagles draft was very questionable but Chip seems to believe too much is put on the draft..that was obvious with his picks. He did not improve the D…sorry Jenkins and Carroll are mediocre players and not much of a upgrade. No one can deny Chip is a good offensive mind who has added to the game but his overall head coaching decisions are somewhat suspect and if I was a Eagles fan I would be concerned not just babbling “In Chip We Trust” like a mindless robot.

  18. Well hmmm… last year when the jags were worse on paper and about 20 point underdogs to the broncos they stuck with them for most of the game… but no, throw the dirt on them, they’re done.

  19. A few thoughts. As an Eagles fan I have to say the Jags are not scary at all as a team. They still are lacking almost an entire offense and the defense while moving the right direction is still a draft and free agent period away. The thing to me that makes this an easy game for the birds is the fact the jags are starting a bum at QB when they have the best player drafted in this past draft. Bortles will take the jags and their fans where they need to go someday I have no doubt, it just won’t be sunday.

    Now for the people who keep saying ” Does anyone really think foles can do that again” your morons lol. Of course no one thinks he can do that again. That was a top ten all time single season for a QB. He probably won’t do that again. But he clearly is primed to be a great player. To knock the guy for not being able to put one of the greatest season of all time twice in a row is just silly.

    Also as far as the birds defense goes I think our fans and people around the league are going to be quite surprised at how much better they will be. I was not the biggest fan of the play calling by Davis last year, but I do understanding he to hold back a lil because of the lack of talent. Even with that lack of talent they were second in turnovers and played very well down the stretch minus the one Vikings game. Having Jenkins is going to be huge for this team. While not a superstar or great player he is a great leader and locker room guy. He will show some of the younger players the right way to play and help a lot more in getting guys in the right spots and reading the offense. Nolan Carrol is going to be a break out player this year. He will replace one of the starters by week 3 and could be a pro bowl type player in this defense. Mark my words on that.

    Lastly the quest for 2000 yrds begins for shady and I really think he can do it. As highly as I think of AP and Gore and beast mode, shady is the best RB in the NFL right now and barring injury probably will stay that way the next 2-3 years.

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