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Math, trustworthy, shows Washington better with Luck not RG3


In the 2012, the Colts had a choice — Stanford’s Andrew Luck or Baylor’s Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III.

Washington was going to take the other one.

And with Griffin benched, it looks like this is shaping up like another Colts draft call — when they took Peyton Manning over Ryan Leaf.

But the numbers show that if the roles were reversed, RG3 might not be as big a disaster as he is now.

The website ran 50,000 computer simulations which put Luck in Washington and Griffin in Indianapolis. The verdict’s hardly surprising.

“If Luck were the starter all season in Washington, the Redskins would be projected to win the NFC East with a 10-6 record. Indianapolis, with RG3 would finish second in the AFC South behind Houston with a projected 7.5 wins.

Luck would be projected to throw for 4,529 yards, 34 touchdowns and 16 interceptions in Jay Gruden’s offense. RG3, assuming a full healthy season, would be projected to throw for 2,994 yards, 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions as a Colt.”

Washington would probably have taken that kind of line out of Griffin, and he might not have been benched if he were playing that well.

We already know the Rams are glad to have traded with Washington, so there are at least two teams grateful for how this one has turned out.

Permalink 31 Comments Feed for comments Latest Stories in: Home, Indianapolis Colts, Rumor Mill, Washington Redskins
31 Responses to “Math, trustworthy, shows Washington better with Luck not RG3”
  1. firemikeflorio says: Nov 26, 2014 7:21 AM

    See griffin apologists? Like so many fans more knowledgeable of the game tried to tell you: he’s RGLeaf, not RG3. Master of the smoke and mirrors offense. BUST

  2. mikea311 says: Nov 26, 2014 7:21 AM

    50,000 computer simulations still get the weather wrong too.

  3. nvl004 says: Nov 26, 2014 7:27 AM

    Did they “simulate” post game comments?

  4. wydok says: Nov 26, 2014 7:32 AM

    Computers can’t predict how Synder and Shannahan would have screwed Luck up with their piss poor management.

  5. stealthscorpio says: Nov 26, 2014 7:35 AM

    This is totally bogus

  6. deepfriedrabbit says: Nov 26, 2014 7:41 AM

    What a huge surprise… The Redskins would be better with a quarterback that’s playing better.

    This is a joke, right?

  7. 2much4youhaters says: Nov 26, 2014 7:42 AM

    Really a computer simulation. Give me a break how about some real news

  8. guppyjunior says: Nov 26, 2014 7:55 AM

    That computer is being way to kind to RG. Sorry, but it’s true. It’s a pocket passer’s league now. You need a guy that’s 6’5″ with a good pass protecting line in front of him to win the big playoff games

  9. kyblue33 says: Nov 26, 2014 8:00 AM

    Luck has been the best even in 2012. He was the best rookie that year, he just was not given the award. But RG3, is subways best Quarterback!

  10. contract says: Nov 26, 2014 8:06 AM

    I have seen “the future” of the QB position, and the future is a bust.

  11. mrstinkypants says: Nov 26, 2014 8:07 AM

    Can I get that computer to run some simulations for my fantasy football team?

  12. joetoronto says: Nov 26, 2014 8:26 AM

    Just like before, there’s no comparison at all.

  13. johnelwayishorsefaced says: Nov 26, 2014 8:27 AM

    What a ridiculous, garbage pretense for a post.
    I predict that if I was born into the Koch family I would make more money than I currently do too.

  14. amaf21 says: Nov 26, 2014 8:31 AM

    Yeah because the St. Louis team really put the REDSKINS picks to good use. The Indianapolis team was the only winner here.

  15. ddogdaddy says: Nov 26, 2014 8:41 AM

    At least RG3’s commercials are still getting air time.

  16. doctorrustbelt says: Nov 26, 2014 9:08 AM

    This story should be called:

    How to pretend that Pierre Garcon/Josh Morgan/Leonard Hankerson and Washington’s terrible offensive line are great and how Reggie Wayne/T.Y. Hilton/Coby Fleener/Dwaybe Allen suck

  17. floratiotime says: Nov 26, 2014 9:14 AM

    Everyone was taking Luck over RG3. The fake controversy was created after the R-Words ended up with him and tried to make it look like it was a tough call. Obviously it wasn’t.

  18. captainwhodat says: Nov 26, 2014 9:21 AM


  19. thestrategyexpert says: Nov 26, 2014 9:21 AM

    Math, numbers, and logic don’t lie.

  20. ravishingronald says: Nov 26, 2014 9:25 AM

    Griffin the turd, was a media creation. The Heisman trophy is all about PR. Prior to that, you never heard of him. Luck however, was talked about as a top pick for two years prior to being drafted. I said when Griffin was drafted he wold last 3 years, he didn’t really last one before being injured. I’m sure the Jet’s will look him over after he is cut.

  21. RomoIsGod says: Nov 26, 2014 9:25 AM

    Is anyone else shocked that someone needed anything other than watching football games to come to this conclusion.

  22. RegisHawk says: Nov 26, 2014 9:28 AM

    They have projectors.

    Russell Wilson has a real Lombardi.

  23. Unidentified_Flying_Stiviano says: Nov 26, 2014 9:31 AM

    You don’t need to bring math or any kind of analytical analysis to this haha… use your eyes.

    BREAKING NEWS: Math supports that the Chargers would have gotten more wins if they had gotten Peyton Manning instead of Ryan Leaf.

  24. doctorrustbelt says: Nov 26, 2014 9:50 AM

    RGIII’s tight ends:

    – Slow, nobody Logan Paulsen – 4 td in three seasons
    – Prostitute assaulting/drink throwing/hair pulling/drunk driver/spouse abuser Fred Davis – 1 td in two seasons
    – Niles Paul (having good season – after three bad seasons) – 2 td in CAREER – 4 seasons

    Andrew Lucks’ tight ends:

    – 2012 Donnie Avery = 781 yards – 3 td
    – 2012 Dwayne Allen = 521 yards – 3 td
    – 2012 Coby Fleener = 281 yards – 2td

    – 2013 Coby Fleener = 680 yards – 4 td

    – 2014 Coby Fleener = 467 yards – 4 td
    – 2014 Dwayne Allen = 374 yards – 7 td

  25. doctorrustbelt says: Nov 26, 2014 9:57 AM

    RGIII Statistics:

    63% CAREER completion percentage
    90 QB rating
    2.1 INT percentage

    – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

    Andrew Luck Statistics:

    58% CAREER completion percentage
    86 QB rating
    2.2 INT percentage

  26. atwatercrushesokoye says: Nov 26, 2014 10:07 AM

    Players would develop differently with different coaches and in different environments. It’s way too simple to say Luck would be better than Griffen in reversed situations but that totally discounts everything. Perhaps in Indy under Bruce Arians Griffen is taught in a different way that connects to him and he’s able to maximize his talents and flourish. And perhaps under Shanahan Luck doesn’t develop quite as well and struggles. Also the teams probably would have ended up drafting and signing different pieces to surround them with.

    We’ll never know how it would turn out but it’s just way too simplistic to say that if reversed the players would have developed the exact same.

  27. logicaldawg says: Nov 26, 2014 11:55 AM

    That is why you don’t trade away all your draft picks for one guy. Too big a risk. You win by having more chances, not by going all in on one chance.

    The fact is, you never know where your stars are going to come from. My Browns made a big mistake trading up one slot to pick up Trent Richardson (though they stemmed the bleeding by at least seeing his stutter step approach and getting a first rounder back). Who is carrying the rock now and producing at a higher level? Isaiah Crowell, an undrafted free agent. Who is catching balls for us? Taylor Gabrial, an undrafted free agent. Who leads the league in interceptions? Tashaun Gipson, another undrafted free agent.

    Teams that scout well and find the gems are the ones that win. Teams who keep enough draft powder dry spread risk and create more options for success. Teams that don’t take on too much risk and implode badly when things go south And that implosion can set you back years.

  28. idiotkickerwhogotliquoredup says: Nov 26, 2014 12:29 PM

    I hope they didn’t pay for this simulation, all they had to do was look at game tape. The tape doesn’t lie….

  29. nyjetsfan08 says: Nov 26, 2014 2:37 PM

    Can it simulate how many Subway spots we’d get tired of seeing before we throw something at the TV?

  30. kd75 says: Nov 26, 2014 4:06 PM

    In what computer simulation do the Houston Texans have 8 wins?

  31. kingpel says: Dec 1, 2014 2:19 PM

    All you have to do is ask Cowboy, Giant and Eagle fans who they would rather face twice a year and you’ll have an honest answer.

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