Math, trustworthy, shows Washington better with Luck not RG3

Reuters

In the 2012, the Colts had a choice — Stanford’s Andrew Luck or Baylor’s Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III.

Washington was going to take the other one.

And with Griffin benched, it looks like this is shaping up like another Colts draft call — when they took Peyton Manning over Ryan Leaf.

But the numbers show that if the roles were reversed, RG3 might not be as big a disaster as he is now.

The website PredictionMachine.com ran 50,000 computer simulations which put Luck in Washington and Griffin in Indianapolis. The verdict’s hardly surprising.

“If Luck were the starter all season in Washington, the Redskins would be projected to win the NFC East with a 10-6 record. Indianapolis, with RG3 would finish second in the AFC South behind Houston with a projected 7.5 wins.

Luck would be projected to throw for 4,529 yards, 34 touchdowns and 16 interceptions in Jay Gruden’s offense. RG3, assuming a full healthy season, would be projected to throw for 2,994 yards, 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions as a Colt.”

Washington would probably have taken that kind of line out of Griffin, and he might not have been benched if he were playing that well.

We already know the Rams are glad to have traded with Washington, so there are at least two teams grateful for how this one has turned out.

31 responses to “Math, trustworthy, shows Washington better with Luck not RG3

  1. Computers can’t predict how Synder and Shannahan would have screwed Luck up with their piss poor management.

  2. That computer is being way to kind to RG. Sorry, but it’s true. It’s a pocket passer’s league now. You need a guy that’s 6’5″ with a good pass protecting line in front of him to win the big playoff games

  3. What a ridiculous, garbage pretense for a post.
    I predict that if I was born into the Koch family I would make more money than I currently do too.

  4. This story should be called:

    How to pretend that Pierre Garcon/Josh Morgan/Leonard Hankerson and Washington’s terrible offensive line are great and how Reggie Wayne/T.Y. Hilton/Coby Fleener/Dwaybe Allen suck

  5. Everyone was taking Luck over RG3. The fake controversy was created after the R-Words ended up with him and tried to make it look like it was a tough call. Obviously it wasn’t.

  6. Griffin the turd, was a media creation. The Heisman trophy is all about PR. Prior to that, you never heard of him. Luck however, was talked about as a top pick for two years prior to being drafted. I said when Griffin was drafted he wold last 3 years, he didn’t really last one before being injured. I’m sure the Jet’s will look him over after he is cut.

  7. Is anyone else shocked that someone needed anything other than watching football games to come to this conclusion.

  8. You don’t need to bring math or any kind of analytical analysis to this haha… use your eyes.

    BREAKING NEWS: Math supports that the Chargers would have gotten more wins if they had gotten Peyton Manning instead of Ryan Leaf.

  9. RGIII’s tight ends:

    – Slow, nobody Logan Paulsen – 4 td in three seasons
    – Prostitute assaulting/drink throwing/hair pulling/drunk driver/spouse abuser Fred Davis – 1 td in two seasons
    – Niles Paul (having good season – after three bad seasons) – 2 td in CAREER – 4 seasons

    Andrew Lucks’ tight ends:

    – 2012 Donnie Avery = 781 yards – 3 td
    – 2012 Dwayne Allen = 521 yards – 3 td
    – 2012 Coby Fleener = 281 yards – 2td

    – 2013 Coby Fleener = 680 yards – 4 td

    – 2014 Coby Fleener = 467 yards – 4 td
    – 2014 Dwayne Allen = 374 yards – 7 td

  10. RGIII Statistics:

    63% CAREER completion percentage
    90 QB rating
    2.1 INT percentage

    – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

    Andrew Luck Statistics:

    58% CAREER completion percentage
    86 QB rating
    2.2 INT percentage

  11. Players would develop differently with different coaches and in different environments. It’s way too simple to say Luck would be better than Griffen in reversed situations but that totally discounts everything. Perhaps in Indy under Bruce Arians Griffen is taught in a different way that connects to him and he’s able to maximize his talents and flourish. And perhaps under Shanahan Luck doesn’t develop quite as well and struggles. Also the teams probably would have ended up drafting and signing different pieces to surround them with.

    We’ll never know how it would turn out but it’s just way too simplistic to say that if reversed the players would have developed the exact same.

  12. That is why you don’t trade away all your draft picks for one guy. Too big a risk. You win by having more chances, not by going all in on one chance.

    The fact is, you never know where your stars are going to come from. My Browns made a big mistake trading up one slot to pick up Trent Richardson (though they stemmed the bleeding by at least seeing his stutter step approach and getting a first rounder back). Who is carrying the rock now and producing at a higher level? Isaiah Crowell, an undrafted free agent. Who is catching balls for us? Taylor Gabrial, an undrafted free agent. Who leads the league in interceptions? Tashaun Gipson, another undrafted free agent.

    Teams that scout well and find the gems are the ones that win. Teams who keep enough draft powder dry spread risk and create more options for success. Teams that don’t take on too much risk and implode badly when things go south And that implosion can set you back years.

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