Through 12 games, the Raiders have the NFL’s worst point differential (minus-161). Considering their 1-11 record, that’s not all that surprising.
On Sunday, the Raiders host the 7-5 49ers, who are a game out of the final wild-card spot in the NFC.
And like Oakland, San Francisco has a negative point differential.
Through 12 games, the 49ers have been outscored 244-231. No other club with a winning record has a negative point differential.
It’s something to ponder as we consider three other storylines in the 49ers-Raiders matchup:
1. Can Derek Carr and Colin Kaepernick get on track?
Both quarterbacks were picked twice apiece in Week 13 losses, and Kaepernick was panned for his poor showing on Thanksgiving night vs. Seattle.
However, Kaepernick would especially seem likely to show improvement this week; with more than a week of preparation, the Niners’ offense figures to be collectively sharper, perhaps dialed in on the things it does well. This is far from a hopeless passing attack; the 49ers have 40 passing plays of more than 20 yards, 14th-best in the league.
Carr, for his part, has had a solid rookie season. He’s committed one turnover or less in 8-of-12 starts, and he’s hit on nearly 60 percent of his throws. Moreover, he’s been sacked just 15 times. However, he gets another challenging matchup Sunday. Eight of the Niners’ last 10 opponents have completed less than 60 percent of their passes. Also, the 49ers’ pass rush has picked up in the last two weeks, notching nine sacks.
The 49ers would seem to have a wide array of options vs. Carr. The Raiders have struggled to run the ball, and their woes figure to continue against the stout Niners. This could put Carr in plenty of sub-optimal, must-pass situations against a strong defense. The good news? This is Carr’s 13th NFL start, and he’s faced a slew of good defenses. He won’t buckle under pressure. But can the rookie quarterback and his offense make the plays needed to pull the surprise?
2. Who are two X-factors to watch on Sunday?
For the Niners, it’s wide receiver Michael Crabtree, who enters a pivotal four-game stretch. A free agent after the season, Crabtree can enhance his bargaining power with a strong finish. Crabtree will be 28 at the beginning of the 2015 season, and he will be two years removed from an Achilles injury. A productive December could be just the boost his stock needs when the market opens next March.
Also, keep an eye on Raiders fullback Marcel Reece, who catches the ball well. The 49ers had issues defending the width of the field in the loss to Seattle. Utilizing Reece on a wheel route or two might be a good idea. He’s also a nice option in the flat.
3. Could Sunday be one of the final highlights of Jim Harbaugh’s tenure in San Francisco?
Harbaugh’s uncertain future with the 49ers threatens to be the dominant storyline surrounding the club in the final weeks, especially if San Francicsco falls out of contention. However, Sunday could be a textbook, smash-mouth Harbaugh-era performance for the Niners. The Raiders are heavy home underdogs, and the 49ers could roll.
On the horizon, though, is a matchup with the Seahawks in Seattle. If the 49ers don’t win that one, their playoff hopes will take a hit, and the external discussion will drift again toward 2015.
If you have enjoyed watching the 49ers in recent seasons, you might want to tune in Sunday. One of the league’s power elite might soon be headed for a shakeup.