There’s a reason Mark Sanchez is getting paid in Philadelphia, and there was a bidding war for Josh McCown.
The law of supply and demand is why, and the NFL quarterback position is the best illustration of how that graph you learned the first day of college Econ class works in real life.
And with so few legitimate prospects coming through the draft pipeline this year, those middle-of-the-road guys are more valuable than ever.
According to Kevin Seifert of ESPN — and his research team there at the four-letter network — that’s because it’s getting harder and harder to find help at the position deeper in the draft.
Since 2000, a total of eight quarterbacks drafted in the fourth round or lower have gone on to start as many as 20 games in the league. None of those eight have been drafted since 2005, pointing to the fact that draft-and-develop isn’t something you can count on with quarterbacks.
Tom Brady’s obviously the patron saint of the overlooked-on-draft-weekend guys, but he’s clearly a rare case that fell into a perfect spot. The other seven include Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kyle Orton, Matt Cassel, Derek Anderson, Seneca Wallace, David Garrard and Marc Bulger.
So in a year with exactly two legitimate first-round prospects (Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota), you’re going to see two things happen.
One, teams are going to load up on proven commodities, even if they’re proven to be average at best.
And then come the draft, you’re going to see teams overvalue fringe quarterback prospects and overdraft them.
So while you might not be thrilled about your team loading up on Brian Hoyers and Ryan Malletts for instance, you’d be less thrilled and less likely to win if you were counting on a Garrett Grayson or a Shane Carden.