January was a profitable month for betting on football

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In Vegas, the house always wins. At least in the long run. In the short term, sometimes the bettors can come out ahead.

And that’s exactly what happened in January, when sports bettors cleaned the casinos’ clocks when betting on football.

According to David Payne Purdum‏ of ESPN, Nevada sports books lost $8.25 million on football bets in January, the first month that the Nevada casinos lost money on football since January of 2013.

It was a good month for both college and NFL bettors: The casinos took a bath on Clemson’s upset win over Alabama for the college football national champions, and the teams picked by the majority of the betting public went 9-1 against the spread in the 10 NFL playoff games in January.

Casinos had only had a worse month on football once ever, in November of 2005.

Of course, in the long run, the casinos are still doing just fine. The majority of people who bet on football lose money. But January was, for bettors, a pleasant exception.

6 responses to “January was a profitable month for betting on football

  1. An oddsmaker said that around 80% of ALL bets are placed on the team favored to win. But over 50% of the time, they don’t cover. Since the NFL games went 9-1 ATS in January, it figures the casinos lost money. I USED to be one of those suckers that ALWAYS took the favored team until that oddsmaker changed my way of thinking. It’s a LOT easier to do in NCAAFB but now I look for the point spread that’s too big and have been riding (and winning) that thinking for a few years.

  2. whodat5150 says:
    Mar 2, 2017 6:47 PM
    An oddsmaker said that around 80% of ALL bets are placed on the team favored to win. But over 50% of the time, they don’t cover.
    _______________

    Underdogs have covered at a 50.3 regular season % rate over the last 15 years, not enough to hang your hat on if you want to keep it. Over time it is generally considered to be a smart move to play the fade on heavy favorites. That 80% number the oddsmaker was quoting you is the tipping point for fades on spreads over 7 points. Meaning when 80% or more of the betting public is taking a 7.5+ pt favorite the dog covers over 67% percent of the time. Two notable exceptions are New England as the favorite (13-3 ATS this past season and 12-4 for 3 years in a row before that) and Cleveland (3-13 ATS this past season as a dog in every game).

    Taking New England ATS this past year was as close to printing money as a gambler could ask for as was shedding Cleveland. So much for dissing ‘common’ knowledge. That’s why they call it gaming.

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