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PFT’s one and only money-back-guaranteed mock draft

I’m not a big fan of mock drafts, for a variety of reasons. First, everyone has one — and most have enough versions that, statistically, one of them is destined to seem prescient. Second, it makes no sense to project the picks before free agency, when some needs are addressed and other needs may arise. Third, every mock draft is immediately dubbed the “worst mock draft ever” regardless of how it’s configured.

With all that said, we now do one per year. I get the bulk of the input directly from folks who make their living evaluating players, and I only make a handful of revisions.

We’ve projected only one trade, but for the most part that’s even more of a crapshoot than picking players. (I’ll be watching to see whether the Bengals trade down and still get their projected pick, whether the Titans trade the No. 18 pick to the Seahawks for Richard Sherman, whether any of the teams with aging franchise quarterbacks move up to get a rookie at the position, and whether the Saints eventually send the No. 32 pick back to the Patriots for cornerback Malcolm Butler.)

So here it is. Dismiss it, demean it, disregarded it. It doesn’t matter to me; I can now check the box and move back to real news instead of fake draft boards.

1. Browns: Myles Garrett, defensive end, Texas A&M.

2. 49ers: Solomon Thomas, defensive end, Stanford.

3. Bears: Jamal Adams, safety, LSU.

4. Jaguars: Leonard Fournette, running back, LSU.

5. Titans (from Rams): Jonathan Allen, defensive lineman, Alabama.

6. Browns (projected trade from Jets): Mitchell Trubisky, quarterback, North Carolina.

7. Chargers: O.J. Howard, tight end, Alabama.

8. Panthers: Christian McCaffrey, running back, Stanford.

9. Bengals: Reuben Foster, linebacker, Alabama.

10. Bills: Marshon Lattimore, cornerback, Ohio State.

11. Saints: Haason Reddick, linebacker, Temple.

12. Jets (projected trade with Browns via Eagles): Marlon Humphrey, cornerback, Alabama.

13. Cardinals: Deshaun Watson, quarterback, Clemson.

14. Eagles (from Vikings): Derek Barnett, defensive end, Tennessee.

15. Colts: Charles Harris, linebacker/defensive end, Missouri.

16. Ravens: Malik Hooker, safety, Ohio State.

17. Washington: Jarrad Davis, linebacker, Florida.

18. Titans: Mike Williams, receiver, Clemson.

19. Buccaneers: Dalvin Cook, running back, Florida State.

20. Broncos: Ryan Ramczyk, tackle, Wisconsin.

21. Lions: Corey Davis, receiver, Western Michigan.

22. Dolphins: Cam Robinson, tackle, Alabama.

23. Giants: David Njoku, tight end, Miami.

24. Raiders: John Ross, receiver, Washington.

25. Texans: Patrick Mahomes, quarterback, Texas Tech.

26. Seahawks: Garrett Bolles, tackle, Utah

27. Chiefs: Davis Webb, quarterback, Cal.

28. Cowboys: Takkarist McKinley, linebacker, UCLA.

29. Packers: Tim Williams, linebacker, Alabama.

30. Steelers: Jabrill Peppers, safety, Michigan.

31. Falcons: Taco Charlton, defensive end, Michigan.

32. Saints: Adoree Jackson, cornerback, USC.

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93 Responses to “PFT’s one and only money-back-guaranteed mock draft”
  1. sonofsamadams says: Apr 25, 2017 1:18 PM

    This is the worst thing I’ve ever seen, and I’ve seen a naked photo of Belichick.

  2. bassplucker says: Apr 25, 2017 1:20 PM

    Not bad, but it makes too much sense, especially in the Top 5. At least one team will reach for a QB before the 6th pick (possibly even trading up to do so)… I just hope it’s not my team.

  3. xmiksticky says: Apr 25, 2017 1:20 PM

    You actually tried this year what gives

  4. dagon27 says: Apr 25, 2017 1:20 PM

    Interesting you have Malik Hooker dropping that far. Otherwise this seems like a pretty logical mock.

  5. saints737 says: Apr 25, 2017 1:21 PM

    This is the worst mock draft in the history of mock drafts

  6. comatrip1 says: Apr 25, 2017 1:21 PM

    Hard to imagine that the Jets would trade 6 to CLE for Trubisky. They’re really the only real threat to Trubisky falling to 12. If they’re willing to trade the pick then they’re willing to not draft him at all and he might fall to 12. I think more likely, the Browns trade to #6 with Tennessee to jump above NYJ.

  7. comatrip1 says: Apr 25, 2017 1:22 PM

    Shoot. Meant #5 with Tennessee.

  8. war27 says: Apr 25, 2017 1:23 PM

    Well, we all know #24 is wrong.

  9. oldbrowndawg says: Apr 25, 2017 1:23 PM

    Anyone who thinks that Malik Hooker falls to #18 overall is delusional. Also, having signed a high-priced safety in Free Agency and already having Eric Weddle, why would Ozzie Newsome draft another one in the first round? Makes no sense whatsoever.

  10. oldbrowndawg says: Apr 25, 2017 1:24 PM

    Oops. I meant to #16 overall. Hands too big for keyboard.

  11. niners816 says: Apr 25, 2017 1:24 PM

    xmiksticky says:
    Apr 25, 2017 1:20 PM
    You actually tried this year what gives
    —————
    He actually copied this year, you mean.

  12. definitemaybe55 says: Apr 25, 2017 1:25 PM

    There is simply no way the Steelers are going to draft a guy who failed a drug test at the Combine.

  13. firerogergoodellnow says: Apr 25, 2017 1:25 PM

    17. REDSKINS: Jarrad Davis, linebacker, Florida.

  14. stoneydog1000 says: Apr 25, 2017 1:25 PM

    You have the Bengals taking a waterholic? I hope not.

  15. saints737 says: Apr 25, 2017 1:25 PM

    Seriously, you realize Miami is moving Tunsil to LT right? And the Jets themselves need a QB? And Reuben Foster peed himself right out of the top 10?

    Awful.

  16. ezmoover says: Apr 25, 2017 1:28 PM

    PFFFT

    Browns could’ve just stayed at #12 and taken Malik Hooker. A great talent that fills a massive need.

    This mock draft sucks.

  17. dimi1919 says: Apr 25, 2017 1:28 PM

    sonofsamadams says:
    Apr 25, 2017 1:18 PM
    This is the worst thing I’ve ever seen, and I’ve seen a naked photo of Belichick

    —————

    Post of the year. LOLOL

  18. mrpeepee says: Apr 25, 2017 1:29 PM

    Chargers picking Howard at #7 is where I stopped caring

  19. patriots123456 says: Apr 25, 2017 1:30 PM

    How about finally announcing the Pat’s got Gillislee yesterday when the Bills declined to match the offer sheet…

  20. jimmysee says: Apr 25, 2017 1:30 PM

    Your guesses are just as good as anyone else’s — except for that big hair guy at ESPN whose guesses over the years have repeatedly proven to be worthless.

  21. mlevy713 says: Apr 25, 2017 1:30 PM

    The only thing that makes no sense to me is the Chargers picking OJ Howard when they just drafted Hunter Henry and still have a year or two left with Antonio Gates. Other than that, this looks solid.

    P.S. As a Bears fan, I pray you are right that they will pick Adams.

  22. hodous says: Apr 25, 2017 1:31 PM

    I guarantee if the first two picks go like that Cleveland trades with the Bears at #3 with the Jags at #4 as the first possible QB takers and the Jets at #6 plus that gives a potential trade down scenario at #5 to the Titans who would move down for picks.. if they want Trubisky that badly it is too risky for them to wait.

    Cleveland sends #12 to Bears for #3
    Bears also get 33rd pick 52nd pick & 2018 2nd round

    It is a Win – Win for both teams

  23. gotitan says: Apr 25, 2017 1:31 PM

    I would bet the Titans don’t pick at #5 or #18.

  24. finsphan says: Apr 25, 2017 1:31 PM

    I’m willing to bet what little money I have in my pocket that Miami will not take Cam Robinson at 22 or any other T for that matter. IF they take an offensive lineman it will be Forrest Lamp. That is the most irresponsible projection I think I’ve ever seen on all these mock drafts.

  25. theright0pinion says: Apr 25, 2017 1:31 PM

    I’ve seen worse.

  26. sceaglesfan says: Apr 25, 2017 1:31 PM

    And by getting back to “real” news you mean updates on Jay Cutler’s status?

  27. chrisk61 says: Apr 25, 2017 1:32 PM

    eagles draft a DE with first pick ??

    uh, no

  28. walker615 says: Apr 25, 2017 1:32 PM

    No Gareon Conley is a huge miss.

  29. eaglesfanintx says: Apr 25, 2017 1:33 PM

    You’re High!

  30. bazookajoeflacco says: Apr 25, 2017 1:34 PM

    You have the Ravens taking a safety, the one position on the team that they have the most depth and dont need. They just signed Jefferson this offseason, resigned Webb this offseason, and just signed Weddle last season.

  31. weepingjebus says: Apr 25, 2017 1:34 PM

    The only drama this draft holds for me is how loud and sustained the Goodell booing will be. Hopefully some on site broadcaster adds a boo meter to measure it.

  32. Torrey says: Apr 25, 2017 1:34 PM

    To everyone saying this is a horrible mock draft…

    If someone made a mock draft that ends up being 100% accurate, it would look like a terrible mock right draft right now. The draft always ends up being nutty

    As long as there are no truly outrageous choices are made (I.E. choices like Myles Garrett falling out of the top 3), there’s really no such thing as a bad mock draft.

  33. jacktatumsforearm says: Apr 25, 2017 1:34 PM

    Nope Al Davis is dead so the Raiders will not take the fastest player in the combine.

  34. Raider Ray says: Apr 25, 2017 1:35 PM

    Not the worst thing I’ve seen, but I don’t see Oakland taking a receiver at 24. I have a feeling they’re going defense heavy as they probably should. I’m thinking CB, ILB, DT – at least 2 of those in the first 3 rounds….. But it’s a guess…

  35. eaglesfanintx says: Apr 25, 2017 1:35 PM

    No way the Eagles pass on :
    Mike Williams
    Dalvin Cook
    Corey Davis
    Gareon Conley
    AND John Ross to take a DE instead!

  36. rdrllldubk says: Apr 25, 2017 1:38 PM

    How much time did you spend on this? Oakland had the worst D of all playoff teams, have Coop n Crab, signed Patterson as a FA and you have them taking a WR???

  37. tonyzendejas says: Apr 25, 2017 1:41 PM

    Draft predictions…for when you run out of ambien.

  38. oneilistheone says: Apr 25, 2017 1:43 PM

    Speed Kills! @#24

  39. jaggedmark says: Apr 25, 2017 1:45 PM

    So the Jets are going to use a 1st on another Bama CB after the Dee Milliner disaster?

  40. whyalwaysthehate says: Apr 25, 2017 1:48 PM

    redskins

  41. oreo51 says: Apr 25, 2017 1:50 PM

    I cannot see the Seahawks using their first pick on a 25 year old rookie lineman that needs to get stronger. They have plenty of those already.

  42. waynefontesismyfather says: Apr 25, 2017 1:55 PM

    Detroit doesn’t want the kid from Western Michigan. We tried that once before, taking the home grown WR…Charles Rogers. WOOF!

  43. curtis35w says: Apr 25, 2017 1:57 PM

    Chargers taking Howard????? im lost LOL!

  44. donterrelli says: Apr 25, 2017 2:05 PM

    No 49ers or Bears jumping on QBs?

  45. samadams14 says: Apr 25, 2017 2:13 PM

    Is there a new defensive scheme that the Ravens can run to utilize 3 Starting Safeties? Or do they draft Hooker to sit and learn behind Jefferson/Weddle?

  46. runningoutofboundsisforgringos says: Apr 25, 2017 2:13 PM

    Awesome buzzkill intro

  47. bueller101 says: Apr 25, 2017 2:14 PM

    You still have Peppers in the first round? I don’t think the Bucs will draft a RB at 19, despite the FSU connection. McCafferey maybe if he is there and they have a specific role for him planned. I’m a huge Cook fan (best RB ever at FSU,) but the RB’s in the 2nd and 3rd round are almost as good.

  48. nsawins says: Apr 25, 2017 2:17 PM

    Over/Under on how many you get correct is 5. Give me the UNDER.

  49. therealtrenches says: Apr 25, 2017 2:22 PM

    All you Eagles fans saying they won’t draft a DE in the first round might want to re-think that. If there’s a DE on the board of Barnett’s caliber, they’d be stupid to pass on him.

    And if the Eagles pass on Barnett, you’ll be the first ones killing Howie later on, when it’s clear that he’s going to be a beast.

  50. pftcancer says: Apr 25, 2017 2:24 PM

    You have Baltimore skipping over not one, not two, but three top receivers, an edge rusher, and the top tackle in favor of a safety that isn’t even the best at his position?

  51. originalsteelcurtain says: Apr 25, 2017 2:28 PM

    Chill.
    It’s a mock. You won’t find a mock that is more than 20% correct. If someone gets 5 out of 32 right they are doing better than most. To shed light on the Pittsburgh pick at 30…Peppers is now a 2nd rounder. TJ Watt or Charles Harris will be the pick if available…Maybe Takk McKinley if they are gone. DB’s Humphrey White Jackson Baker Melifonwu or Awuzie are possible at 30

  52. kcflake says: Apr 25, 2017 2:30 PM

    The Chiefs pick is Beyond Moronic.

  53. docraider says: Apr 25, 2017 2:33 PM

    Have you checked the Raiders roster? They are not taking a WR at 24

  54. omeimontis says: Apr 25, 2017 2:42 PM

    is Soloman Thomas of Stanford really a better DL than Jonathan Allen of Alabama?

  55. canedaddy says: Apr 25, 2017 2:47 PM

    No way Mike Williams drops that far.

    No way the Ravens take a safety at 16.

    I’d be stunned if Chiefs took Webb in the first round.

    Otherwise, nothing too crazy there.

  56. sdcharger123 says: Apr 25, 2017 3:02 PM

    Chargers taking OJ Howard when they just got Hunter Henry? Seems dumb enough they just might do it.

  57. lukedunphysscienceproject says: Apr 25, 2017 3:12 PM

    Like I said yesterday, Peppers just “diluted” himself from a miserable team drafting in the Top 10 to a perennial playoff team drafting at the at the end of the round.

  58. jgedgar70 says: Apr 25, 2017 3:36 PM

    I love the possibility of my Panthers getting McCaffrey. They can put him in all sorts of spots, keep the defenses guessing, and keep Cam standing upright. I’m counting on the Jags to take Fournette at 4 so we can’t get him. Let someone else deal with Fournette playing 10 games a year due to injuries.

    The Browns are making a mistake by thinking so highly of Trubisky. He’s going to be a decent pro, because he’s accurate and doesn’t turn the ball over. But he’s never going to make a Pro Bowl. They should fill as many needs as they can with all those picks, let Kessler & Osweiller fight it out to be this year’s QB, try to win 4-5 games and get one of next year’s QBs.

  59. omeimontis says: Apr 25, 2017 3:41 PM

    The Sea Hogs may get rid of Richard Charmin’s huge salary by packaging him and their number 1 pick to trade up to grab a CB.

  60. xinellum says: Apr 25, 2017 3:41 PM

    Give us our money back because no way the Ravens select a safety in the first round after acquiring a young safety this year and an older, but still top rated safety the year before. Maybe a developmental safety later in the draft, but they got Jefferson so they didnt have to get a safety in the first round this year and could concentrate on offensive playmakers.

  61. peckerneckfred says: Apr 25, 2017 3:46 PM

    If the Ravens get Hooker at 15 I’m ok with that
    dude is a beast

  62. dryzzt23 says: Apr 25, 2017 3:52 PM

    No Gareon Conley? What gives?

    Just kidding.

  63. lowlifenebula says: Apr 25, 2017 4:05 PM

    No way Mahommes drops far enough down for the Texans to get him. With the lack of first round O-line talent in the draft the Texans will be left with only defense in the first round worth it. Also, no T.J. Watt going in the first? I’d be surprised if he doesn’t go in the 20 or lower.

  64. jacktatum32 says: Apr 25, 2017 5:05 PM

    jaggedmark says:
    Apr 25, 2017 1:45 PM

    So the Jets are going to use a 1st on another Bama CB after the Dee Milliner disaster?

    __________________________________
    LOL

    So the Jets are going to use 1st on another QB after the Mark Sanchez disaster?

    I mean

    So the Jets are going to use 1st on another QB after the Geno Smith disaster?

    LOL—Jets just may be better off letting the clock run and losing their 1st round pick that way the disaster is instant and doesn’t need to play out all season

  65. r502 says: Apr 25, 2017 5:05 PM

    Raiders are not drafting a receiver in round one

  66. pbeddoe says: Apr 25, 2017 5:19 PM

    John Ross to the Raiders at 24 isn’t happening. McKenize builds on draft and needs. WR is not a must need for the Raiders for the first pick in round 1. Let the past go Florio, it’s not Al Davis anymore picking the fastest player in the draft.

  67. liongator says: Apr 25, 2017 6:04 PM

    “sonofsamadams says:
    Apr 25, 2017 1:18 PM

    This is the worst thing I’ve ever seen, and I’ve seen a naked photo of Belichick.”

    Do you still hear the Rams, Clarice?

  68. axraiders says: Apr 25, 2017 6:12 PM

    Can people stop with the notion, that the Raiders always pick the fastest player in the draft? AL Davis died remember? We just signed Cordarrelle Patterson, who is a burner. I expected better from this even though I also hate Mock Drafts

  69. bd233 says: Apr 25, 2017 6:41 PM

    The Bengals aren’t taking a LB at #9. They just signed Minter. They will take a DE, WR, or Howard if he drops to 9.

  70. plifterdrifter says: Apr 25, 2017 6:56 PM

    Seattle gonna take Obi or Adoree if they’re there (which they are). Despite the pundits I doubt they take oline first pick; it’s those two or they trade down for more picks and then they’ll grab Obi or Zay Jones.

    that’s what i think and i have 48 hours to be proven wrong again.

  71. silentbenstrikesback says: Apr 25, 2017 7:42 PM

    The Chiefs last picked a QB in the 1st round in 1983.

    A draft with QB’s Jim Kelly, Dan Marino, John Elway, Tony Eason, Ken O’Brien and Todd Blackledge.

    One of those names is not like the others, one of them sucked badly. The Chiefs selected that loser. It’s petrified them from selecting a QB in the 1st rd ever since.

  72. jchemengr says: Apr 25, 2017 7:52 PM

    QB is one of the weakest positions in this draft. Four in the first round is kinda nuts.

  73. jchemengr says: Apr 25, 2017 8:01 PM

    There are 8, maybe 10, franchise quarterbacks in the NFL today. Most of them are over 30 and 4 are over 35. The chances there are 4 in this draft is zero.

  74. streetyson says: Apr 25, 2017 8:26 PM

    jchemengr says:
    Apr 25, 2017 8:01 PM
    There are 8, maybe 10, franchise quarterbacks in the NFL today. Most of them are over 30 and 4 are over 35. The chances there are 4 in this draft is zero.
    —————-
    Maybe, but don’t forget that Warren Moon, Dave Krieg, Kurt Warner and Tony Romo were all undrafted. And even Brady was effectively a 7th-rounder (a compensatory pick after the 6th round, and initially the Pats’ 4th QB on their depth chart). I suspect every year there’s a QB or two who, with the right coaching, could have been developed into a good/great franchise starter but that didn’t get picked – or got picked by a team that didn’t, or were incapable of, developing the guy properly or for long enough.

  75. dbmfins says: Apr 25, 2017 8:53 PM

    Florio is absolutely correct…

    I want my money back!!

  76. madham7 says: Apr 25, 2017 9:23 PM

    I like your top 4, not sure on #5. There is no chance the Packers take Tim Williams though. Look at Watt, Adams or Quincy Wilson if they stay in Round 1.

  77. mtsquad says: Apr 25, 2017 9:39 PM

    I can’t… I can’t, I just died 25 times. Your dumb! Uneeda some help

  78. silentcount says: Apr 25, 2017 9:42 PM

    As far as mock drafts go, my bird seems to like it. He’s reading a printout of it in his cage right now.

  79. packsupersoldier says: Apr 25, 2017 10:36 PM

    And with their 1st round pick the Vikings select…oh wait, they traded their 1st round pick for Brad Samford.

  80. johnthehillboy says: Apr 26, 2017 12:33 AM

    O.J. Howard at #7 is where I started caring

  81. johnthehillboy says: Apr 26, 2017 12:57 AM

    Henry and Howard can both block, Gates can’t, so that would be the 3 you could carry this year. No need for a big blocking tight end that only catches the ball 12 times in a season

    I love the idea of of the Chargers having the best double tight end set in the NFL in 1 year and for the next 6 after that because the greatest tight end ever went out like a pro by accepting a back up roll and tutored the best tight ends to come out in back to back years for 3 and 2 years respectively on how to run routes and get position

    Gates has only been a Charger

    He would love to go out like that

    He only needs 1 more touchdown for the record

    After that it is about his legacy

  82. kgunforhire says: Apr 26, 2017 1:35 AM

    I’d be irked if Buffalo passed on Hooker. This was already a better mock because it didn’t have the Bills going QB which makes zero sense. Pick 10 should be WR, CB or LB.

  83. baldy55 says: Apr 26, 2017 2:09 AM

    If the Jets trade down and Hooker is still there I don’t see them passing on him. I think they would take Harris the OLB before the Bama CB as well.

  84. mclennon99 says: Apr 26, 2017 6:05 AM

    I don’t see Lattimore dropping to #10. I do see Buffalo likely trading down and grabbing more picks if the guy they want, OJ Howard, is gone.

  85. backuppunter says: Apr 26, 2017 9:37 PM

    I don’t think the chiefs will take a qb in the first round. Also don’t think fornette will be drafted that early. but it is a mock draft. I am interested in where qb Deshaun Watson actually goes, seen so many different predictions for him. But as mock drafts go I would say pft did a pretty good job, we’ll see.

  86. backuppunter says: Apr 26, 2017 9:41 PM

    Even though it seems like a weak qb class i think the need is so strong that more qbs will be taken in the first round than four

  87. mrba4775 says: Apr 27, 2017 12:12 AM

    👍 the Cowboys pick. It’s back to the future ( 70’s and 90’s), for the Cowboys!!!!

  88. miamiron says: Apr 27, 2017 2:57 AM

    No first round for Forrest Lamp? Damn imbeciles

  89. petedutcherjr says: Apr 27, 2017 8:48 AM

    Got the Buccaneers completely wrong.

    Bucs will go CB, Safety or DE.

  90. theravishingrachelnichols says: Apr 27, 2017 4:01 PM

    Cincy has to be looking at WR/CB/S at #9, there is no way they take a guy with baggage like Foster in round one… They’re saving that pick for Mixon at #41.

  91. jjackwagon says: Apr 28, 2017 11:19 AM

    Well, you got 4 of 32 correct. I would say that is pretty good.

  92. taintedsaints2009 says: Apr 29, 2017 5:51 PM

    do you make money for this?

  93. rogoceo says: May 2, 2017 8:32 AM

    So I scored this mock at 17% correct which is to say 11/64 points. 32 points for a man being taken in the right position and another 32 point if he went to the right team. 11/32, not too good Mr. Florio.

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