PFT’s one and only money-back-guaranteed mock draft

I’m not a big fan of mock drafts, for a variety of reasons. First, everyone has one — and most have enough versions that, statistically, one of them is destined to seem prescient. Second, it makes no sense to project the picks before free agency, when some needs are addressed and other needs may arise. Third, every mock draft is immediately dubbed the “worst mock draft ever” regardless of how it’s configured.

With all that said, we now do one per year. I get the bulk of the input directly from folks who make their living evaluating players, and I only make a handful of revisions.

We’ve projected only one trade, but for the most part that’s even more of a crapshoot than picking players. (I’ll be watching to see whether the Bengals trade down and still get their projected pick, whether the Titans trade the No. 18 pick to the Seahawks for Richard Sherman, whether any of the teams with aging franchise quarterbacks move up to get a rookie at the position, and whether the Saints eventually send the No. 32 pick back to the Patriots for cornerback Malcolm Butler.)

So here it is. Dismiss it, demean it, disregarded it. It doesn’t matter to me; I can now check the box and move back to real news instead of fake draft boards.

1. Browns: Myles Garrett, defensive end, Texas A&M.

2. 49ers: Solomon Thomas, defensive end, Stanford.

3. Bears: Jamal Adams, safety, LSU.

4. Jaguars: Leonard Fournette, running back, LSU.

5. Titans (from Rams): Jonathan Allen, defensive lineman, Alabama.

6. Browns (projected trade from Jets): Mitchell Trubisky, quarterback, North Carolina.

7. Chargers: O.J. Howard, tight end, Alabama.

8. Panthers: Christian McCaffrey, running back, Stanford.

9. Bengals: Reuben Foster, linebacker, Alabama.

10. Bills: Marshon Lattimore, cornerback, Ohio State.

11. Saints: Haason Reddick, linebacker, Temple.

12. Jets (projected trade with Browns via Eagles): Marlon Humphrey, cornerback, Alabama.

13. Cardinals: Deshaun Watson, quarterback, Clemson.

14. Eagles (from Vikings): Derek Barnett, defensive end, Tennessee.

15. Colts: Charles Harris, linebacker/defensive end, Missouri.

16. Ravens: Malik Hooker, safety, Ohio State.

17. Washington: Jarrad Davis, linebacker, Florida.

18. Titans: Mike Williams, receiver, Clemson.

19. Buccaneers: Dalvin Cook, running back, Florida State.

20. Broncos: Ryan Ramczyk, tackle, Wisconsin.

21. Lions: Corey Davis, receiver, Western Michigan.

22. Dolphins: Cam Robinson, tackle, Alabama.

23. Giants: David Njoku, tight end, Miami.

24. Raiders: John Ross, receiver, Washington.

25. Texans: Patrick Mahomes, quarterback, Texas Tech.

26. Seahawks: Garrett Bolles, tackle, Utah

27. Chiefs: Davis Webb, quarterback, Cal.

28. Cowboys: Takkarist McKinley, linebacker, UCLA.

29. Packers: Tim Williams, linebacker, Alabama.

30. Steelers: Jabrill Peppers, safety, Michigan.

31. Falcons: Taco Charlton, defensive end, Michigan.

32. Saints: Adoree Jackson, cornerback, USC.

93 responses to “PFT’s one and only money-back-guaranteed mock draft

  1. Not bad, but it makes too much sense, especially in the Top 5. At least one team will reach for a QB before the 6th pick (possibly even trading up to do so)… I just hope it’s not my team.

  2. Hard to imagine that the Jets would trade 6 to CLE for Trubisky. They’re really the only real threat to Trubisky falling to 12. If they’re willing to trade the pick then they’re willing to not draft him at all and he might fall to 12. I think more likely, the Browns trade to #6 with Tennessee to jump above NYJ.

  3. Anyone who thinks that Malik Hooker falls to #18 overall is delusional. Also, having signed a high-priced safety in Free Agency and already having Eric Weddle, why would Ozzie Newsome draft another one in the first round? Makes no sense whatsoever.

  4. There is simply no way the Steelers are going to draft a guy who failed a drug test at the Combine.

  5. Seriously, you realize Miami is moving Tunsil to LT right? And the Jets themselves need a QB? And Reuben Foster peed himself right out of the top 10?

    Awful.

  6. sonofsamadams says:
    Apr 25, 2017 1:18 PM
    This is the worst thing I’ve ever seen, and I’ve seen a naked photo of Belichick

    —————

    Post of the year. LOLOL

  7. How about finally announcing the Pat’s got Gillislee yesterday when the Bills declined to match the offer sheet…

  8. Your guesses are just as good as anyone else’s — except for that big hair guy at ESPN whose guesses over the years have repeatedly proven to be worthless.

  9. The only thing that makes no sense to me is the Chargers picking OJ Howard when they just drafted Hunter Henry and still have a year or two left with Antonio Gates. Other than that, this looks solid.

    P.S. As a Bears fan, I pray you are right that they will pick Adams.

  10. I guarantee if the first two picks go like that Cleveland trades with the Bears at #3 with the Jags at #4 as the first possible QB takers and the Jets at #6 plus that gives a potential trade down scenario at #5 to the Titans who would move down for picks.. if they want Trubisky that badly it is too risky for them to wait.

    Cleveland sends #12 to Bears for #3
    Bears also get 33rd pick 52nd pick & 2018 2nd round

    It is a Win – Win for both teams

  11. I’m willing to bet what little money I have in my pocket that Miami will not take Cam Robinson at 22 or any other T for that matter. IF they take an offensive lineman it will be Forrest Lamp. That is the most irresponsible projection I think I’ve ever seen on all these mock drafts.

  12. You have the Ravens taking a safety, the one position on the team that they have the most depth and dont need. They just signed Jefferson this offseason, resigned Webb this offseason, and just signed Weddle last season.

  13. The only drama this draft holds for me is how loud and sustained the Goodell booing will be. Hopefully some on site broadcaster adds a boo meter to measure it.

  14. To everyone saying this is a horrible mock draft…

    If someone made a mock draft that ends up being 100% accurate, it would look like a terrible mock right draft right now. The draft always ends up being nutty

    As long as there are no truly outrageous choices are made (I.E. choices like Myles Garrett falling out of the top 3), there’s really no such thing as a bad mock draft.

  15. Nope Al Davis is dead so the Raiders will not take the fastest player in the combine.

  16. Not the worst thing I’ve seen, but I don’t see Oakland taking a receiver at 24. I have a feeling they’re going defense heavy as they probably should. I’m thinking CB, ILB, DT – at least 2 of those in the first 3 rounds….. But it’s a guess…

  17. No way the Eagles pass on :
    Mike Williams
    Dalvin Cook
    Corey Davis
    Gareon Conley
    AND John Ross to take a DE instead!

  18. How much time did you spend on this? Oakland had the worst D of all playoff teams, have Coop n Crab, signed Patterson as a FA and you have them taking a WR???

  19. I cannot see the Seahawks using their first pick on a 25 year old rookie lineman that needs to get stronger. They have plenty of those already.

  20. Is there a new defensive scheme that the Ravens can run to utilize 3 Starting Safeties? Or do they draft Hooker to sit and learn behind Jefferson/Weddle?

  21. You still have Peppers in the first round? I don’t think the Bucs will draft a RB at 19, despite the FSU connection. McCafferey maybe if he is there and they have a specific role for him planned. I’m a huge Cook fan (best RB ever at FSU,) but the RB’s in the 2nd and 3rd round are almost as good.

  22. All you Eagles fans saying they won’t draft a DE in the first round might want to re-think that. If there’s a DE on the board of Barnett’s caliber, they’d be stupid to pass on him.

    And if the Eagles pass on Barnett, you’ll be the first ones killing Howie later on, when it’s clear that he’s going to be a beast.

  23. You have Baltimore skipping over not one, not two, but three top receivers, an edge rusher, and the top tackle in favor of a safety that isn’t even the best at his position?

  24. Chill.
    It’s a mock. You won’t find a mock that is more than 20% correct. If someone gets 5 out of 32 right they are doing better than most. To shed light on the Pittsburgh pick at 30…Peppers is now a 2nd rounder. TJ Watt or Charles Harris will be the pick if available…Maybe Takk McKinley if they are gone. DB’s Humphrey White Jackson Baker Melifonwu or Awuzie are possible at 30

  25. No way Mike Williams drops that far.

    No way the Ravens take a safety at 16.

    I’d be stunned if Chiefs took Webb in the first round.

    Otherwise, nothing too crazy there.

  26. I love the possibility of my Panthers getting McCaffrey. They can put him in all sorts of spots, keep the defenses guessing, and keep Cam standing upright. I’m counting on the Jags to take Fournette at 4 so we can’t get him. Let someone else deal with Fournette playing 10 games a year due to injuries.

    The Browns are making a mistake by thinking so highly of Trubisky. He’s going to be a decent pro, because he’s accurate and doesn’t turn the ball over. But he’s never going to make a Pro Bowl. They should fill as many needs as they can with all those picks, let Kessler & Osweiller fight it out to be this year’s QB, try to win 4-5 games and get one of next year’s QBs.

  27. Give us our money back because no way the Ravens select a safety in the first round after acquiring a young safety this year and an older, but still top rated safety the year before. Maybe a developmental safety later in the draft, but they got Jefferson so they didnt have to get a safety in the first round this year and could concentrate on offensive playmakers.

  28. No way Mahommes drops far enough down for the Texans to get him. With the lack of first round O-line talent in the draft the Texans will be left with only defense in the first round worth it. Also, no T.J. Watt going in the first? I’d be surprised if he doesn’t go in the 20 or lower.

  29. jaggedmark says:
    Apr 25, 2017 1:45 PM

    So the Jets are going to use a 1st on another Bama CB after the Dee Milliner disaster?

    __________________________________
    LOL

    So the Jets are going to use 1st on another QB after the Mark Sanchez disaster?

    I mean

    So the Jets are going to use 1st on another QB after the Geno Smith disaster?

    LOL—Jets just may be better off letting the clock run and losing their 1st round pick that way the disaster is instant and doesn’t need to play out all season

  30. John Ross to the Raiders at 24 isn’t happening. McKenize builds on draft and needs. WR is not a must need for the Raiders for the first pick in round 1. Let the past go Florio, it’s not Al Davis anymore picking the fastest player in the draft.

  31. “sonofsamadams says:
    Apr 25, 2017 1:18 PM

    This is the worst thing I’ve ever seen, and I’ve seen a naked photo of Belichick.”

    Do you still hear the Rams, Clarice?

  32. Can people stop with the notion, that the Raiders always pick the fastest player in the draft? AL Davis died remember? We just signed Cordarrelle Patterson, who is a burner. I expected better from this even though I also hate Mock Drafts

  33. The Bengals aren’t taking a LB at #9. They just signed Minter. They will take a DE, WR, or Howard if he drops to 9.

  34. Seattle gonna take Obi or Adoree if they’re there (which they are). Despite the pundits I doubt they take oline first pick; it’s those two or they trade down for more picks and then they’ll grab Obi or Zay Jones.

    that’s what i think and i have 48 hours to be proven wrong again.

  35. The Chiefs last picked a QB in the 1st round in 1983.

    A draft with QB’s Jim Kelly, Dan Marino, John Elway, Tony Eason, Ken O’Brien and Todd Blackledge.

    One of those names is not like the others, one of them sucked badly. The Chiefs selected that loser. It’s petrified them from selecting a QB in the 1st rd ever since.

  36. There are 8, maybe 10, franchise quarterbacks in the NFL today. Most of them are over 30 and 4 are over 35. The chances there are 4 in this draft is zero.

  37. jchemengr says:
    Apr 25, 2017 8:01 PM
    There are 8, maybe 10, franchise quarterbacks in the NFL today. Most of them are over 30 and 4 are over 35. The chances there are 4 in this draft is zero.
    —————-
    Maybe, but don’t forget that Warren Moon, Dave Krieg, Kurt Warner and Tony Romo were all undrafted. And even Brady was effectively a 7th-rounder (a compensatory pick after the 6th round, and initially the Pats’ 4th QB on their depth chart). I suspect every year there’s a QB or two who, with the right coaching, could have been developed into a good/great franchise starter but that didn’t get picked – or got picked by a team that didn’t, or were incapable of, developing the guy properly or for long enough.

  38. I like your top 4, not sure on #5. There is no chance the Packers take Tim Williams though. Look at Watt, Adams or Quincy Wilson if they stay in Round 1.

  39. As far as mock drafts go, my bird seems to like it. He’s reading a printout of it in his cage right now.

  40. Henry and Howard can both block, Gates can’t, so that would be the 3 you could carry this year. No need for a big blocking tight end that only catches the ball 12 times in a season

    I love the idea of of the Chargers having the best double tight end set in the NFL in 1 year and for the next 6 after that because the greatest tight end ever went out like a pro by accepting a back up roll and tutored the best tight ends to come out in back to back years for 3 and 2 years respectively on how to run routes and get position

    Gates has only been a Charger

    He would love to go out like that

    He only needs 1 more touchdown for the record

    After that it is about his legacy

  41. I’d be irked if Buffalo passed on Hooker. This was already a better mock because it didn’t have the Bills going QB which makes zero sense. Pick 10 should be WR, CB or LB.

  42. If the Jets trade down and Hooker is still there I don’t see them passing on him. I think they would take Harris the OLB before the Bama CB as well.

  43. I don’t see Lattimore dropping to #10. I do see Buffalo likely trading down and grabbing more picks if the guy they want, OJ Howard, is gone.

  44. I don’t think the chiefs will take a qb in the first round. Also don’t think fornette will be drafted that early. but it is a mock draft. I am interested in where qb Deshaun Watson actually goes, seen so many different predictions for him. But as mock drafts go I would say pft did a pretty good job, we’ll see.

  45. Cincy has to be looking at WR/CB/S at #9, there is no way they take a guy with baggage like Foster in round one… They’re saving that pick for Mixon at #41.

  46. So I scored this mock at 17% correct which is to say 11/64 points. 32 points for a man being taken in the right position and another 32 point if he went to the right team. 11/32, not too good Mr. Florio.

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