How many quarterbacks will go in round one?

Every year, it’s one of the biggest questions entering the first night of the draft. And every year we seem to be surprised in some way by the outcome.

This year, it’s still unclear how many quarterbacks will go in round one. Three is the safest guess. Four accounts for a team like the Chiefs or Steelers taking Davis Webb, or some other team trading back in to the first round to get him. Five is even possible, if someone decides to grab DeShone Kizer before teams at the top of round two get a crack at him.

And then there’s Nathan Peterman, who most likely won’t have a shot at going in round one, but who could end up being a second-day bargain — a guy who develops more quietly and without the expectations that come from being a first-round pick.

This year, I’ve interviewed each of the top six quarterbacks, some more than once: Mitchell Trubisky, Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes, Webb, Kizer, and Peterman. They each came off as smart and engaging, as guys who could capably lead an NFL offense.

Trubisky has a demeanor that seems confident, humble, and even-keeled. Watson has a quiet fire that he seems to know how to harness — and how to unleash on the biggest stages. Mahomes exudes a more youthful vibe, and he seems to be unfazed by the prospect of taking his game to the next level.

Webb comes off as earnest but sincere, a kid who loves football and can’t get enough of it, with a clear plan to coach once his playing career ends. Kizer seems like anything but a diva; he’s fully self-aware and eager to embrace the challenge of playing pro football. And Peterman has a relaxed demeanor that will allow a player to get the most out of his skills.

Of course, the biggest factors that will allow these quarterbacks to get the most out of their skills relate not to them but to their situations — coaches, systems, teammates, front offices, owners, etc. Also, the higher a guy goes, the greater the weight on his shoulders. (Conversely, the lower he goes the bigger the chip.)

Any of them could be successful, if they land in the right spot. The nature of the draft takes that completely out of their hands, putting each at the mercy of which teams pick them and whether those teams can make them successful. It’s one more reason why the players should be picking the teams and not vice-versa, but that unpopular, player-friendly view is never less popular than it will be today.

55 responses to “How many quarterbacks will go in round one?

  1. With Aaron on the decline this should be our Packers first priority.

  2. QBs are where we Packers shine. It’s all we need. All we have, really. So let’s keep the pipeline full and draft two this year. Maybe we can get one who isn’t smug. Or a cap hog.

  3. Rarely discussed dynamic is the fifth year option for those drafted in the first round which argues for more QBs rather than fewer. With the depth of this draft it seems unlikely that teams will opt for position players over QBs if for no other reason than they get the first round QB at a fifth year bargain if he pans out. I would not be surprised if five QBs went in this year’s first round with round two being filled with the stars the talking heads think should go in the first round.

  4. Players choosing their teams? Yea no then the NFL would be like college football where a team like Alabam will win every other year. The great thing about the league is its parity.

  5. If players pick where they go, the best players will always go to good teams or teams they root for. This would not allow weaker teams to improve through smart player selection and would be unfair. I don’t really see the draft as player-unfriendly.

  6. “players picking the team” would work like recruiting business majors at colleges. A team would interview, make offers, and hire. Players would consider offers, face a few rejections, and make the best deal they could. Salary caps would ensure a level playing field.
    But I doubt that college quarterbacks are better judges of where they would succeed than professional coaching staffs.

  7. If I was the GM for a great team I would negotiate with the new player (formerly a draftee) with the angle…we are great and we are willing to pay you X. You can earn more by going to play for a team that is further removed from the potential for success. We see this all of the time in free agency. My guess is that most of the guys coming in from college would not really want to sign up for that approach when all of the cards from all of the teams are on the table.

    I do give you credit, Mike, for iour constant pursuit of fairness.

  8. Players picking the tema is the stupidest idea ever. What first round talent would choose Cleveland over a team like Dallas, Carolina, Houston, etc

    The rich would get richer and the poor teams would get poorer, having to settle for 3rd round talent qbs who want a shot at starting.

  9. 1st Round:
    Trubisky, Watson, Mahomes, Webb

    2nd Round:

    Somebody will trade into the late first/early second to snag #4 and #5.

  10. 1st round contracts are too cheap now not to go for a QB in the first if you’ve got the need. Teams can afford to whiff on a first round pick now.

  11. no qbs with first round talent but so many with needs at the position.. its ok though, just means teams that dont need a qb will have players available that other wise wouldnt be

  12. Letting rookies pick who they want to play for is a terrible idea. As previous posters said they would all go to the most popular teams and you would have an imbalance like you do in college.

    If they don’t like their situation after their rookie contract they can then move to the team they want to be on.

  13. With Aaron on the decline this should be our Packers first priority.
    Sad that even in a story such as this the viking trolls have to get their attention. Not to mention the guy lead the league in TD’s and was a Matt Ryan away from winning another mvp award. That makes you not smart.

  14. An even better question:

    How many of these quarterbacks will be out of the NFL in 3 years?

  15. There are no QBs worthy of the 1st round, IMO.
    Many of these QBs come from gimmick offenses, spread, run-option, etc. Few were in pro-style offenses.

    The 2018 draft will have the QB from USC, Speight from Michigan, Rosen from UCLA, Falk from WSU, Jake Browning, etc.

    If teams were smart, they’d wait until 2018/2019 to take a pro-style QB. These spread-style running QBs just cannot perform in the NFL. When will teams learn?

  16. So, you want a 10 team league where every player makes $20M and there’s no tackling to cause head injuries… Are you sure this isn’t Bernie Sanders’ website?

  17. Ya players choosing their own teams, ya just like college where now the top recruits all talk on social media and plan to go to one or two tops schools guaranteeing a shot at the big stage. Then later the NFL.
    Players would only pick teams loaded with talent so they could win it all every year. You would have a couple of teams in the sb every year and everyone mediocre.

  18. And in the end, the QB who has the longest career in the NFL will be the one picked in the sixth round… Brad Kaaya.

  19. The real question is how many of the QBs will be any good. Chances are, maybe ONE of the QBs from this draft will be good enough to be a long term starter.

  20. I think the Cardinals interest in Mahomes is a smokescreen. I think they take a WR in the first round then take Davis Webb in the 2nd round or trade back into the last few picks in the first round.

  21. This is going to be the second tainted NFL Draft in 2 years.

    Any chance that the NFL issues a press release prior to the start of the 2017 NFL Draft containing the PSI information that was collected during the 2015 season?

    NFL fans who value integrity and transparency have been waiting since before the 2016 NFL Draft….

  22. ariani1985 says:
    Apr 27, 2017 12:52 PM

    Will erin rogers still be in the green room pouting?

    He did breathe a sigh of relief twice after the Vikings skipped him for Troy Williamson and Erasmus James. How did that work out for you?

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