NFL teams have revised the draft trade chart

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When Jimmy Johnson took over the Cowboys, he developed a draft trade chart that revolutionized the way draft-day trades worked in the NFL. Johnson had such success with trades involving draft picks that other teams quickly copied the Cowboys’ chart, and soon every team was using it.

But that was a long time ago, before the salary cap and long before the rookie wage scale in the current Collective Bargaining Agreement. The old chart doesn’t really fit in a league where teams have a finite amount of cap space and have to consider how each rookie’s contract will fit under that cap. As a result, teams have developed a new trade chart.

Seahawks General Manager John Schneider said his team has a new chart, updated this year because this is the first year when compensatory picks can be traded. Schneider also indicated that the Seahawks know other teams around the league are valuing picks the same way.

“It’s based off of that, but now being able to trade compensatory picks, [Seahawks V.P. of Football Administration] Matt Thomas and a bunch of guys got together from different teams and put a new chart together so we’re following that now but it’s based off the same principle. It’s a scale,” Schneider said.

Teams don’t make their charts public, but Rich Hill of PatsPulpit.com tracked every pick-for-pick trade that has been made in the NFL since the adoption of the new rookie wage scale in 2012 and used those trades to put together a new chart that shows how teams value picks under the new system. The Seahawks made three trades during this year’s draft, and those trades closely aligned with Hill’s chart, suggesting that chart closely matches the new chart the Seahawks and other teams are using.

Trades don’t always perfectly align with the chart because teams are sometimes willing to overpay to move up for a player they love. But the new chart is usually a good indication of what teams can expect to get in a trade of picks. It’s Johnson’s innovation from three decades ago, updated for today’s NFL.

52 responses to “NFL teams have revised the draft trade chart

  1. It’s got to bug NFL honks that a college coach came in and completely solved and rewrote the rules of the NFL. Jimmy Johnson was the coach of the decade, no doubt.

  2. John Dorsey has perfected his own chart for the Kansas City Chiefs.

    He absolutely bamboozled the Bills into giving the Chiefs the #10 pick (used to pick a future HOF QB) in the 1st round, in exchange for dropping SEVENTEEN spots, and accepting a VERY LOW 3rd round pick, and a VERY LOW 1st rounder next year.
    Snookering the Bills into passing on a HOF quarterback, and dropping a HUGE 17 spots in order to gain basically just the 91st pick, and likely 31st or 32nd pick next year is the work of GENIUS on behalf of John Dorsey and Andy Reid

  3. so we have the front offices throughout the league adapting to rule changes as well as the way business is getting done…..hey Rodger, and the old fashioned owners, this is called change its a good thing embrace it when new fashioned out known. Get out of your 1950’s thinking

  4. Looking over the new chart the negligible value differential between the 5th, 6th and 7th rounds and comparing them to lottery tickets in terms of volume representing greater odds of success than where they are taken explains a lot about the thinking behind how some of the more aggressive trading GM’s go about their business. Obviously the cost certainty has had a big impact on the comparative values in the new chart as well. The cap has implications in ways we don’t always consider when it comes to giving up a 5th or a 6th to rent a veteran.

  5. I think it still needs tweaked. As it is now it shows the first overall pick at 1,000 points and the 188th pick (low 6th round) at 5 points.

    What would you rather have: one guy that may make it or not, or 200 guys? Remember Tom Brady and Terrell Davis and other Hall of Famers were taken late or were undrafted.

    I’ll take my chances with 200 guys.

  6. wib22 says:
    Apr 30, 2017 8:05 PM
    Belichick doesn’t need charts. Just copious amounts of cheating.
    —————————

    I too am a Miami fan but have no issue recognizing greatness when I see it. Belichick is the best executive of the cap era and it isn’t even close. You really are an embarrassment to all Phins fans. Please get a life, if not for your own sake then at least for ours.

  7. John Dorsey has perfected his own chart for the Kansas City Chiefs.

    He absolutely bamboozled the Bills into giving the Chiefs the #10 pick (used to pick a future HOF QB) in the 1st round, in exchange for dropping SEVENTEEN spots, and accepting a VERY LOW 3rd round pick, and a VERY LOW 1st rounder next year.
    Snookering the Bills into passing on a HOF quarterback, and dropping a HUGE 17 spots in order to gain basically just the 91st pick, and likely 31st or 32nd pick next year is the work of GENIUS on behalf of John Dorsey and Andy Reid

    6 22
    Report comment
    —————————————

    Yes, Dorsey and Reid are such geniuses that they chose to select Demarcus Robinson in the 4th round 10 picks earlier than Dak Prescott. Andy Reid wouldn’t know what a QB was even if it hit him in his big gut.

  8. John Dorsey has perfected his own chart for the Kansas City Chiefs.

    He absolutely bamboozled the Bills into giving the Chiefs the #10 pick (used to pick a future HOF QB) in the 1st round, in exchange for dropping SEVENTEEN spots, and accepting a VERY LOW 3rd round pick, and a VERY LOW 1st rounder next year.
    Snookering the Bills into passing on a HOF quarterback, and dropping a HUGE 17 spots in order to gain basically just the 91st pick, and likely 31st or 32nd pick next year is the work of GENIUS on behalf of John Dorsey and Andy Reid

    ——–

    when the pats drop 40 on opening night, make sure
    you are here

    and if your team makes it to the postseason, make sure
    you return to be embarrassed as well

    the only real gm genius for the last 15+ years has been
    executed by bill belichick

  9. The Mitch Trubisky trade to the Bears is even more laughable with this updated trade chart. Herschel Walker was at least a proven good player.

  10. “He absolutely bamboozled the Bills into giving the Chiefs the #10 pick (used to pick a future HOF QB) in the 1st round”

    After earlier drafts –

    Vikings fans – Teddy Bridgewater is a HOF QB !
    Jets fans – Geno Smith is a HOF QB !
    Bills fans – EJ Manuel is a HOF QB !
    Chargers fan – Ryan Leaf is a HOF QB !

    etc etc etc

    See the pattern emerging there? The problem wth proclaiming a player that has never played in the NFL a “HOF” player is that far more often than not they turn out not to be.

  11. Iknowitall says:

    Apr 30, 2017 7:53 PM

    John Dorsey has perfected his own chart for the Kansas City Chiefs.

    He absolutely bamboozled the Bills into giving the Chiefs the #10 pick (used to pick a future HOF QB) in the 1st round, in exchange for dropping SEVENTEEN spots, and accepting a VERY LOW 3rd round pick, and a VERY LOW 1st rounder next year.

    Snookering the Bills into passing on a HOF quarterback, and dropping a HUGE 17 spots in order to gain basically just the 91st pick, and likely 31st or 32nd pick next year is the work of GENIUS on behalf of John Dorsey and Andy Reid

    ——————–

    Big talk coming from a fan of a team that hasn’t been to a SB in over 45 years.

  12. the only real gm genius for the last 15+ years has been
    executed by bill belichick

    ***

    Spygate

    —-

    *myth

    – all former nfl coaches with no agenda who
    speak the truth

  13. What is also interesting is if you look at how future draft picks are valued in a trade, such as the Saints trade of a 2nd round pick (assume middle of second round, 48.5) in 2018 for 3rd round pick #67 in 2017 you can calculate the prevailing interest rate. The 49ers gave a pick worth 75 points today for a pick worth 120 points 1 year from now. What the so called rule of thumb of a pick today being worth a round earlier next year amounts to is on the order of a 60-80% annual interest rate. Teams trading future picks are basically taking out a payday loan to keep the lights on in their coach or GMs office.

  14. Screenshot this: in ten years we will not be worrying about trading the perceived value of a late round pick. We will be worrying about saber metrics and NBA style tanking. What the Browns are doing is simple- exploiting the extremely bloated value of an NFL draft pick, essentially obliterating the trade chart & the Belicheck approach.

    It eventually will work, maybe (probably) not in Cleveland, but the approach will work and take hold. It defeats the salary cap and draft positioning process. Moreover, it devalues the regular season and the all-important draft pick value.

    Before we have to worry about it, I’m guessing the league will get a handle on it (perhaps with a limitation of picks per team in a given round), but before then, other teams will take notice.

    Windows are short in the NFL. Why not sell or give away picks until you have the deck stacked appropriately to make your run? That’s what Bellicheck. hasn’t done.

    Unless you count the cheating giveaways as calculated.

  15. *myth

    – all former nfl coaches with no agenda who
    speak the truth

    ****

    In some cases there is no rule explicitly banning the alleged actions. One example: Another AFC team has brought its own sports drinks because the ones the Patriots supply are often late, warm or both. Unethical? Or just gamesmanship? “They’ve created a culture where that type of behavior is encouraged and rewarded,” one team executive says. “Everybody there is supposed to make the visitor uncomfortable—do everything that is borderline against the rules, but clearly against the principles of good sportsmanship.”

  16. wib22 says:
    Apr 30, 2017 8:54 PM

    the only real gm genius for the last 15+ years has been
    executed by bill belichick
    ***
    Spygate

    —————————————————————–

    We get it. Over 10 years ago…a camera was in the wrong location for a portion of the 1st game of the season. It gets old when crybabies continue to bring it up 10 years later. The team was already over punished for that incident.

    Maybe you should turn your attention to actual cheating which occurred more recently. You know when the NFL blamed a team for what the weather did to footballs. Then the NFL hid the PSI report from the 2015 season because the data showed that footballs always drop PSI when it’s cold.

    You know the cheating where the NFL lied and took away a 1st and a 4th round draft pick away from a team. You know the cheating where a team’s best player was forced to miss 25% of the 2016 season. You know the cheating where the NFL still hasn’t released the PSI information from the 2015 season because decided to take draft picks away in 2016 and 2017. That PSI information would have even shown idiots that footballs lose PSI when it’s cold.

  17. – all former nfl coaches with no agenda who
    speak the truth

    ****

    In some cases there is no rule explicitly banning the alleged actions. One example: Another AFC team has brought its own sports drinks because the ones the Patriots supply are often late, warm or both. Unethical? Or just gamesmanship? “They’ve created a culture where that type of behavior is encouraged and rewarded,” one team executive says. “Everybody there is supposed to make the visitor uncomfortable—do everything that is borderline against the rules, but clearly against the principles of good sportsmanship.”

    ——-

    ya see, college graduates realize primary sources are
    more important than secondary sources or those
    with agendas

    you’re clearly not one of those people, little millennial

  18. We get it. Over 10 years ago…a camera was in the wrong location for a portion of the 1st game of the season. It gets old when crybabies continue to bring it up 10 years later. The team was already over punished for that incident.

    Maybe you should turn your attention to actual cheating which occurred more recently. You know when the NFL blamed a team for what the weather did to footballs. Then the NFL hid the PSI report from the 2015 season because the data showed that footballs always drop PSI when it’s cold.

    You know the cheating where the NFL lied and took away a 1st and a 4th round draft pick away from a team. You know the cheating where a team’s best player was forced to miss 25% of the 2016 season. You know the cheating where the NFL still hasn’t released the PSI information from the 2015 season because decided to take draft picks away in 2016 and 2017. That PSI information would have even shown idiots that footballs lose PSI when it’s cold.

    ***

    Home teams are supposed to provide certain communications equipment, but opponents often don’t trust the Patriots to do it. One team griped to SI that New England supplied a corroded battery pack. Another current head coach brings his own equipment because he doesn’t trust the Patriots to supply anything of quality. A representative of a third team says the Pats provided headset gear that looked “like it had been run over by a lawn mower. Frayed wires, the speaker is all chopped up. . . .”

  19. wib22 says:
    Apr 30, 2017 9:39 PM
    tylawspick6 is the biggest homer on this site.
    ______________________

    And you are the most hopelessly obsessed troll. As ridiculous as they can be at least we can all understand where the homers are coming from.

  20. the only real gm genius for the last 15+ years has been
    executed by bill belichick
    —————————————-
    Amen. You can bet that economist Belichick has a proprietary value algorithm that is superior to anything else out there. Then he had Ernie Adams tweak it with some sophisticated probability theory to take it up another notch.

  21. Home teams are supposed to provide certain communications equipment, but opponents often don’t trust the Patriots to do it. One team griped to SI that New England supplied a corroded battery pack. Another current head coach brings his own equipment because he doesn’t trust the Patriots to supply anything of quality. A representative of a third team says the Pats provided headset gear that looked “like it had been run over by a lawn mower. Frayed wires, the speaker is all chopped up. . .

    ————————————————————–
    I suspect that if was really occurring and was really a problem we would hear more about it all the time.

    A battery getting old once…like the ones that have destroyed countless flashlight that I have since sent to the landfill doesn’t compare to when the Dolphins tampered to steal another teams coach. Or when the Dolphins coach flooded the field to slow down the other team’s offense. Actual cheating by intentionally changing the game conditions of the field is just wrong.

  22. Man it’s AWESOME to be a Patriots fan & see how much it just EATS AWAY at the minds & souls of a certain few….AWESOME I TELL YOU!!! AWESOME!!!

  23. & with the 32nd pick of the 2018 draft the New England Patriots select….. Guess you’ll just have to wait & see like the rest of us….

  24. wib22 says:
    Apr 30, 2017 9:39 PM

    tylawspick6 is the biggest homer on this site.
    ———————————————————–
    Being a homer is a lot better than being a drivel writing troll that is essentially a one trick pony obsessed with trying to label not following a poorly worded memo as “cheating”, while looking like a crybaby for constantly bringing it up.

  25. +++++++++++++
    wib22 says:
    ***
    Home teams are supposed to provide certain communications equipment, but opponents often don’t trust the Patriots to do it. One team griped to SI that New England supplied a corroded battery pack. Another current head coach brings his own equipment because he doesn’t trust the Patriots to supply anything of quality. A representative of a third team says the Pats provided headset gear that looked “like it had been run over by a lawn mower. Frayed wires, the speaker is all chopped up. . . .”
    +++++++++++++++

    Sorry, fella, but the NFL provides all the communication equipment and services for BOTH teams.

    Stop making stuff up, it might help your credibility.

  26. wib22 says:
    Apr 30, 2017 9:38 PM

    gear that looked “like it had been run over by a lawn mower. Frayed wires, the speaker is all chopped up. . .

    ——————————————————–
    It doesn’t come as a surprise to me that teams that went along with the science denying scam to try to keep another team from winning more than their fair share…..like the wimp in the playground who tries to rig the games….before losing and taking his ball and going home……would be sore losers and would take it out on the headset. In case you hadn’t noticed….that Pats win a lot and crybabies might be inclined to break headsets.

  27. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    wolfgangvomframps says:
    Apr 30, 2017 9:49 PM
    Interesting that with this chart, the Bears came out slightly ahead on the Trubisky trade.
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    FYI – According to the Rich Hill article that accompanies the his new Draft Value Chart, you can’t necessarily expect trades involving Top Five picks to work out mathematically if there are exceptional candidates in the mix. This year, there weren’t any top-rated QBs, so the value of the Number Two pick may have followed the formula more closely than if someone like Andrew Luck was on the board.

    “…Trades at the top of the draft are all ad hoc
    Trying to create a table that includes picks at the top of the draft (ie: top five) doesn’t make sense because the value of the pick changes on a year-to-year basis. For example, the #1 pick when Andrew Luck was a prospect is worth a lot more than the #1 pick this year, with Myles Garrett as the top prospect.

    Teams love their quarterbacks and drafts with good quarterback prospects see an increased value in picks at the top. So take the value of the top five picks on the chart as a baseline, and adjust the value accordingly when top prospects come out of college…”

  28. The Sea hogs had to trade down to fit their rookies they drafted into the salary cap. that of course has an impact on the quality of their rookies. That is the price they paid when they overpaid players like Richard Charmin, Earl Thomas, Booby Wagner, Midget Wilson and Jimmy Gram.

  29. Reality is that such a chart, to be optimally useful, has to be adapted every year depending on the talent inventory in the pool… self-evident that there is variance in all of that, and a trade chart has to be revised each time, really.

  30. It’s not 200 players for 1. It’s essentially 200 I drafted free agents (since you’re talking about the last pick). So would you rather have Peyton manning, Eli manning, Andrew luck, Matt Ryan, Matt stafford, etc. or try out 200 ufa qbs to see if you’ll find a hall of famer in there?

  31. wib22 says:
    Apr 30, 2017 10:36 PM
    I’m not a dolphins fan though.

    Patriots will be exposed by the chiefs this year.

    Dorsey for president!
    —————————
    Correction: you’re not a FOOTBALL FAN
    there, fixed it for you

  32. Correction: you’re not a FOOTBALL FAN
    there, fixed it for you

    ***

    No, just want to karmic justice for the team that’s cheated the most in the nfl.

  33. What would you rather have: one guy that may make it or not, or 200 guys? Remember Tom Brady and Terrell Davis and other Hall of Famers were taken late or were undrafted. I’ll take my chances with 200 guys.
    ******************

    Problem is you don’t get to try 200 guys to see which one might be that rare diamond, the roster is limited to 90 of which the vast majority are starters, etc., that you have to keep as part of that number. In reality you only could get to try about 20-30 or so UFDAs, and you cannot usually tell based on a week or two what they will become. Brady was a backup for a season and a half until Bledsoe got hurt.

  34. wib22 says:
    May 1, 2017 8:07 AM
    Correction: you’re not a FOOTBALL FAN
    there, fixed it for you

    ***

    No, just want to karmic justice for the team that’s cheated the most in the nfl.
    —————————-
    Lol….. You mean like winning 2 of the last three Super Bowls??
    Brady still in excellent health & excelling beyond expectations??
    Having a stacked team & being favored to win the next Super Bowl??
    Having the best coach in league history?
    Being the TEAM almost been every player would be part of if given the chance??
    Like being a TEAM that shows absolutely no future regression anytime soon & will continue to contend for Championships ???
    KARMA has ALREADY presented itself….

  35. wib22 says:
    May 1, 2017 8:07 AM
    Correction: you’re not a FOOTBALL FAN
    there, fixed it for you

    ***

    No, just want to karmic justice for the team that’s cheated the most in the nfl.

    ———–

    We have been witnessing this “karmic justice” for years now. Don Shula was the biggest cheater in NFL history and the Dolphins have not win anything relevant since 1974.

  36. wib22 says:
    Apr 30, 2017 8:05 PM
    Belichick doesn’t need charts. Just copious amounts of cheating.
    ———————————————————–
    Cue the circus music. The one trick pony is about to perform again……and again…….and again………and again. Someone should let the one trick pony know that the circus is obsolete and so are the lame old cheating comments.

  37. justintuckrule says:
    May 1, 2017 1:28 AM
    It’s not 200 players for 1. It’s essentially 200 I drafted free agents (since you’re talking about the last pick). So would you rather have Peyton manning, Eli manning, Andrew luck, Matt Ryan, Matt stafford, etc. or try out 200 ufa qbs to see if you’ll find a hall of famer in there?
    ————————————————————–
    The day Eli Manning becomes a HOFer is the day they should lock the doors to the Hall. 14 seasons Manning has thrown 215 int’s while in 13 Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown 133. RYAN FITZPATRICK!!

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