PFT’s Week Four picks

Getty Images

Through three weeks, it’s a tie. It won’t be a tie (barring a tie) after Week Four; MDS and yours truly disagree on five total games this week, the most of the year by far.

MDS got nine of 16 right last week, which isn’t great but better than me. We’ll see who does better in Week Four. We both sure as hell need to.

For all of our Week Four picks (money-back guarantee per usual), scroll along.

Bears at Packers

MDS’s take: The Bears turned in a good performance in a win over the Steelers. I won’t be surprised if they make it two good performances in a row, but I think they’re going to fall short in a closer-than-expected game.

MDS’s pick: Packers 23, Bears 20.

Florio’s take: This game got a lot more interesting when the Bears beat the Steelers. But even with so many Packers players injured, It’s hard to imagine a team led by Aaron Rodgers losing to a team led by Mike Glennon.

Florio’s pick: Packers 24, Bears 17.


Saints at Dolphins

MDS’s take: I don’t know what to think of the Saints after their defense looked like the worst in history in the first two weeks of the season but then rebounded nicely in Week Three. I think they might be able to give Jay Cutler just enough trouble to win a close one.

MDS’s pick: Saints 28, Dolphins 24.

Florio’s take: The team with a “garbage” offense in Week Two will play better than rubbish in England. Will that be enough to overcome a team with a largely nonexistent defense? If not, it could be a sewage season for the Dolphins.

Florio’s pick: Dolphins 30, Saints 27.


Titans at Texans

MDS’s take: Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson is showing promise two starts into his career, but I think he’s going to cough up a couple turnovers and the Titans will win this one handily.

MDS’s pick: Titans 24, Texans 13.

Florio’s take: With Marcus Mariota and Deshaun Watson leading the two teams, this could be the first chapter in a compelling twice-per-year series. Given that the Jaguars thumped the Texans and the Titans thumped the Jaguars, it would be fitting if the Texans to complete the round robin by putting each team at 1-1.

Florio’s pick: Texans 24, Titans 21.


Jaguars at Jets

MDS’s take: These teams both looked a lot better than I was expecting last week. But I don’t expect to say that about the Jets very often this year. I’ll take the Jaguars to keep it going.

MDS’s pick: Jaguars 21, Jets 10.

Florio’s take: It’s a rare trap game for the team that for most of the last decade has been the trap game.

Florio’s pick: Jaguars 31, Jets 17.


Panthers at Patriots

MDS’s take: The Patriots’ defense has been awful this year, but the Panthers’ offense has been pretty rough too. New England should take this one without too much trouble.

MDS’s pick: Patriots 30, Panthers 17.

Florio’s take: Bill Belichick apparently thinks he’s facing the Cam Newton of 2015, not the Cam Newton of 2017. Then again, Bill Belichick has the Patriots defense of 2017. Fortunately he also has the Tom Brady of 2001-present.

Florio’s pick: Patriots 27, Panthers 17.


Lions at Vikings

MDS’s take: At the time I’m making these picks I don’t know if it’s going to be Sam Bradford or Case Keenum under center for the Vikings, but I’ll take the Lions’ defense to force a few turnovers and win a big NFC North game.

MDS’s pick: Lions 28, Vikings 20.

Florio’s take: The two games between these two teams essentially determined a playoff spot last year, with the Lions sweeping the series and earning a wild-card berth. Expect another hard-fought game with the Vikings using home-field advantage, a loud crowd, a resurgent defense, and Dalvin Cook to get over the top, even if by only a thin margin.

Florio’s pick: Vikings 21, Lions 20.


Bills at Falcons

MDS’s take: The Falcons are 3-0 but they’re a dropped touchdown pass in Chicago and an overturned touchdown pass in Detroit from being 1-2. If this game were in Buffalo I’d take the Bills, but I’ll pick Atlanta to win a close one at home.

MDS’s pick: Falcons 24, Bills 21.

Florio’s take: The Bills have been playing better than expected, and the Falcons could easily be 1-2. But they performed well in their new stadium, and they’re back for their second regular-season game there. The Julio Jones back injury could be a problem, but if he plays this one ends up being not necessarily easy but nevertheless a fourth win.

Florio’s pick: Falcons 27, Bills 17.


Steelers at Ravens

MDS’s take: This rivalry game loses a little luster after both teams laid an egg last week. I think the Ravens’ defense will get back on track and beat the Steelers.

MDS’s pick: Ravens 17, Steelers 14.

Florio’s take: The anthem issue has created more of a problem for the Steelers than they’ll ever admit, and they have a bad habit of laying eggs on the road. The Ravens, reeling from an embarrassment on both side of the ball in London, aren’t about to let that happen again. Ultimately, the home team gets the edge in one of the best rivalries in football.

Florio’s pick: Ravens 16, Steelers 13.


Bengals at Browns

MDS’s take: The Bengals’ offense showed signs of life after making a coordinator change, and I think they should put plenty of points on the board in Cleveland.

MDS’s pick: Bengals 31, Browns 17.

Florio’s take: The Battle for Ohio is once again the sink to the bottom. The Bengals have found the end zone, neither has found the victory column, and the road team simply has more talent — if they use it properly.

Florio’s pick: Bengals 24, Browns 20.


Rams at Cowboys

MDS’s take: This is probably the hardest game on the board for me to pick. Based only on what’s happened this season, the Rams are the better team. And yet I’m not sure I’m ready to pick the Rams to win this kind of road game just yet. I’ll take the Cowboys.

MDS’s pick: Cowboys 20, Rams 17.

Florio’s take: The Rams looked great last Thursday and they’ve had extra time to get ready, but the Cowboys have a better-than-expected defense, and quarterback Dak Prescott is putting the offense on his back.

Florio’s pick: Cowboys 27, Rams 20.


Eagles at Chargers

MDS’s take: The Chargers are a better team than their 0-3 record suggests. They’ll get their first win on Sunday.

MDS’s pick: Chargers 27, Eagles 20.

Florio’s take: The 0-3 Chargers aren’t as bad as their record indicates, and the 2-1 Eagles aren’t as good as theirs suggests. With a trip to face the Giants followed by games against the Raiders, Broncos, and Patriots, this could be L.A.’s B team’s best chance to win a game before the bye.

Florio’s pick: Chargers 30, Eagles 24.


Giants at Buccaneers

MDS’s take: The Giants have been perhaps this season’s most disappointing team. I don’t know when they’ll get their first win, but it won’t be Sunday in Tampa.

MDS’s pick: Buccaneers 30, Giants 20.

Florio’s take: The Tampa Bay defense is littered with injuries, and the Giants desperately need to turn the page on three straight losses. Throw in a young quarterback with a penchant for trying too hard to make a difference and a defense that will cause him to make mistakes, it’s time for the Giants to get a W.

Florio’s pick: Giants 23, Buccaneers 20.


49ers at Cardinals

MDS’s take: The 49ers are running the ball well, and they could keep this one close because of that. But I ultimately think the Cardinals have too much firepower for the 49ers’ defense.

MDS’s pick: Cardinals 27, 49ers 21.

Florio’s take: Short week for the home team meets extra time for the 49ers, who have to feel better about themselves are taking the Rams to the limit. It’s time for Kyle Shanahan to get his first career win.

Florio’s pick: 49ers 27, Cardinals 23.


Raiders at Broncos

MDS’s take: In a close game that could go either way, I like the Broncos to win at home and drop the Raiders into third place in the AFC West.

MDS’s pick: Broncos 17, Raiders 14.

Florio’s take: Both teams were force fed large slice of humble pie in Week Three. The Broncos seem to have the defense to keep the Oakland offense in check. If Trevor Siemian can better protect the ball, the Broncos should knock the Raiders to third place in the division.

Florio’s pick: Broncos 20, Raiders 17.


Colts at Seahawks

MDS’s take: The Seahawks have not played well this season, but the Colts coming to town is just what they need.

MDS’s pick: Seahawks 31, Colts 13.

Florio’s take: It’s desperation time in Seattle, and the Seahawks seem to thrive in that context. Of course, if they want to experience real desperation, losing to the Colts will make that happen.

Florio’s pick: Seahawks 17, Colts 13.


Washington at Chiefs

MDS’s take: The Chiefs’ offense is rolling, and I just don’t think Washington can keep up.

MDS’s pick: Chiefs 35, Washington 20.

Florio’s take: Washington’s win over the Raiders makes this game better, but the Chiefs continue to be the better team on both sides of the ball. For entertainment purposes, here’s hoping it won’t get ugly. But it definitely could.

Florio’s pick: Chiefs 27, Washington 17.

59 responses to “PFT’s Week Four picks

  1. That Mighty Jag D will keep it rolling this week against Gang Green, suffocating that Jet Offense …

    Jaguars 31
    Jets 14

  2. Just once I would like to see a prediction of a blowout, or a shutout, or a a big upset. But I won’t hold my breath

  3. Based on the season so far, the Rams have been better than the Cowboys? Ye gods, is that an awful take. There is an EVER SO SLIGHT difference between these two teams: Colts/Redskins/@49ers versus Giants/@Broncos/@Cardinals. In case you don’t follow, the Rams have played perhaps the EASIEST POSSIBLE SLATE of three games so far (including two home games) while the Cowboys have played one of the toughest trio of opponents (included games in two of the five toughest road venues in the NFL). BASED ON THE RESULTS SO FAR, it is a near lock that the Rams would be 1-2 or 0-3 had it played the same schedule as Dallas so far. Yeah, quality of opponent DOES make a difference, because…duh.

  4. The Packers should win by 10. They’ll design a bunch of rollouts and quickhitters to move the chains and the Bears don’t have the weapons to keep up. Primetime gets Glennon to throw a pick or two.

    The Vikings are playing a playoff team, so they’ll lose.

  5. It’s rivalry week for the mighty 13 time World Champion Green Bay Packers and the 9 time World Champion Chicago Bears. These are the two most successful franchises in NFL history.

    Good luck to both of these excellent franchises!

  6. My pick for this week is that not a lot of fans show up in the stadiums and ratings will be at an all time low! book it!

  7. niners816 says:

    September 28, 2017 at 10:40 am

    Colts are going to beat the Seahawks. Watch.
    ____________________________________________

    Can’t you just focus on the fact that somebody actually predicted your team to win for once? Your obsession with the Seahawks is exhausting.

  8. Packers ranked #3 in power rankings and Bears ranked #24. Packers are at home and both predictions show the Packers barely beating the Bears. Your numbers seem off.

  9. Patriots 24 Panthers 17 this will be close, but some medium range passing to Gronkowski will put the Pats over the top. Ravens 23 Steelers 20 Ravens got humiliated last week can’t see it happening again. The same applies to the Raiders I have them winning 21 to 16.

  10. I absolutely hate the Eagles Chargers pick, but as an Eagles fan I have a bad feeling about this game. Cox will be out. We don’t play well on the West Coast. The Chargers are desperate. We are coming off a big, emotional win at home. That said, I think the Chargers might just be as bad as the record suggests. There might be more Eagles fans at that stadium than Chargers fans.

  11. The Chiefs don’t belong on the same fueld as the Redskins. Man for Man the Redskins are superior at every position. Even at QB. PFT moved the Redskins to #6 on the recent rankings to make the move easier to justify next week when they have no choice but to put the Redskins at #1. The crazy thing of it all ks our team is so good, not even lousy Kirk Cousins can ruin the vibe.

  12. Normally after 4 weeks, the truly good teams show some separation from the truly bad teams. Whether the Ravens win or lose this weekend, I still don’t know for sure if they’re any good or if they’re at best mediocre.

    Ravens 21
    Steelers 20

  13. nhpats says:
    September 28, 2017 at 10:24 am

    The Ravens over the Steelers? Really? Wow….
    ——————–

    Haven’t the Ravens owned the Steelers lately?

  14. goodellisruiningtheleague says:
    September 28, 2017 at 11:38 am

    You guys said the same thing about the Redskins last week and look how that turned out
    ————————

    Yeah, but that was the over-Raiders.

  15. Charger team morale is very low. They’ve won only 4 games in the last 35 games played. Their playing in a small soccer field with only a trickle of “curious” Charger fans. Tickets, parking and concessions are way too expensive and seats have been mostly re-sold to visiting team fans. They’ve lost possibly two and surely one game as management has gone with a questionable place kicker who can’t kick off into the end zone and make a clutch field goal. That’s why they got Josh Lambo in the first place! It’s not a very good scenario for the next 3 to 4 seasons in Carson.

  16. @mmack66: You just can’t stop thinking about the Raiders.

    Lots of football to play and we’ll see how it all sorts out in the end, but…

    Your obsession with everything Silver and Black is hilarious.

    Keep it up, your posts are entertaining.

    RAIDER NATION

  17. How can Florio say the Eagles are not as good as there record indicates, the Eagles are 2-0 in there own division (NFC East) and 2-0 in the conference (NFC), they also gave the Chiefs all they could handle in their own stadium and the team most experts have ranked #1 in most power rankings. Crazy if you ask me!!!!! The Eagles are a good team and will prove it once again this week with a win against the Chargers who find ways to lose games!!

  18. objectivefootballfan says:
    September 28, 2017 at 12:20 pm
    How can Florio say the Eagles are not as good as there record indicates, the Eagles are 2-0 in there own division (NFC East) and 2-0 in the conference (NFC), they also gave the Chiefs all they could handle in their own stadium and the team most experts have ranked #1 in most power rankings. Crazy if you ask me!!!!! The Eagles are a good team and will prove it once again this week with a win against the Chargers who find ways to lose games!!
    ———

    I am a Cowboys fan and have to agree. Eagles appear to be the most consistent in the division. I feel they roll in this game.

  19. If the Eagles indeed lose, then they are who you thought they were. I don’t see it. I think they’re better than a lot of pundits think, and are still getting better each week. Despite the trip across country, it’s going to have a home game feel for the Eagles with a lot of noise coming from the stands. They win again and remain in first place.

  20. buffalosunshine says:
    September 28, 2017 at 11:53 am
    We Shall See… Go Bills!

    ——————————————————————————–

    Wouldn’t hold your breath….

    Ask the Bills head coach what happened the last time his defense (Panthers) came to Atlanta….

    Here’s a hint ….. 500 plus yards passing with 300 yrds alone going to one Atlanta WR.

    Good luck!

  21. mullman76 says:
    September 28, 2017 at 12:03 pm

    @mmack66: You just can’t stop thinking about the Raiders.
    —————————

    True. I can’t stop wondering how a team can claim to have a nation of fans, when they can’t even fill their own stadium.

  22. I find it comical when people gloat about the Packers 13 championships and the Bears 9. What sense is there in bragging about championships before the superbowl era or atleast 1950. Thats really awesome that they won some titles before half of the current teams even existed. I never hear Browns or Lions fans brag about their championships. And as someone who hates the Steelers, I would say they are a more successful franchise then certainly the Bears and probably the Packers also. 49ers, Cowboys, Patriots.

  23. mmack66 says:

    September 28, 2017 at 1:07 pm

    mullman76 says:
    September 28, 2017 at 12:03 pm

    @mmack66: You just can’t stop thinking about the Raiders.
    —————————

    True. I can’t stop wondering how a team can claim to have a nation of fans, when they can’t even fill their own stadium.
    _______

    Silly mmack66…. its Raider “Notion” , C’mon now.

    no·tion
    * an impulse or desire, especially one of a whimsical kind.

  24. The fact that MDS states that the Ram’s are a better team should void his rights to pick games. Look at the opponents and where they played and try again. While Goff seems to better than last year (how could he not), I think this has a slight bias smell.

    We’ll see…

  25. And as someone who hates the Steelers, I would say they are a more successful franchise then certainly the Bears and probably the Packers also. 49ers, Cowboys, Patriots.
    =====

    The Steelers were founded in the ‘olden days’, just like the Bears and Packers.

    UNLIKE those two teams, the Steelers were irrelvant for 40 years while the Bears and Packers were winning Championships.

  26. I wouldn’t say the Rams are better so far this year than the Cowboys…that’s a tad premature. With that being said Dallas is not going to blow them out like most people would have guessed prior to the season starting.

  27. The Pack will win by at least 10, while the Vikes/Lions will likely be closer. If the Vikes’ D doesn’t step it up, the Lions are gonna steal a road game.

  28. “It’s rivalry week for the mighty 13 time World Champion Green Bay Packers and the 9 time World Champion Chicago Bears. These are the two most successful franchises in NFL history.”

    No, they’re not actually. Most of those dusty old trophies came before the merger and there even was an NFL. And comparing a championship in 12 teams leagues playing far fewer games to a Super Bowl championship is laughable. And I like the Packers even though I’m a Pats fan. They are one of the better run franchises and certainly very successful. But pre merger “championships” are not world championships and not in the same category as SB wins.

  29. Not saying the Redskins are going to lose but I wouldnt go to sleep on their defense!!! This not the same defense with all of those holes like last year….Keep undersestimating that defense…….

  30. harrisonhits2 says:
    September 28, 2017 at 1:58 pm
    “It’s rivalry week for the mighty 13 time World Champion Green Bay Packers and the 9 time World Champion Chicago Bears. These are the two most successful franchises in NFL history.”

    No, they’re not actually. Most of those dusty old trophies came before the merger and there even was an NFL. And comparing a championship in 12 teams leagues playing far fewer games to a Super Bowl championship is laughable. And I like the Packers even though I’m a Pats fan. They are one of the better run franchises and certainly very successful. But pre merger “championships” are not world championships and not in the same category as SB wins.

    ———————–

    Ask yourself:

    Does the NFL recognize them as Championships?

    Then ask yourself:

    Should we take the opinion of the NFL, or some random Pats fan?

  31. Falcons high powered offense to much for Bills… Falcons win!

    Saints improved against panthers defense which is about same as Dolphins… Saints win

    Panthers are struggling on offense… Patriots win

    Giants will not lose 4 in a row but the Bucs possibly could… Giants win

  32. ok fine, don’t count the pre Super Bowl championships. I’m not much of a Packer fan but they have four titles…Steelers six, Dallas, Patriots, 49ers five, Giants four…Minnesota is sitting at the little kids’ table at the holidays with zero….so keep it down over there.

  33. harrisonhits2 says:
    September 28, 2017 at 1:58 pm

    No, they’re not actually. Most of those dusty old trophies came before the merger and there even was an NFL.
    ————————-

    The NFL has been around since 1920. It’s been called the NFL since 1922.

  34. patsfan1820 says:
    24 Panthers 17 this will be close, but some medium range passing to Gronkowski will put the Pats over the top. Ravens 23 Steelers 20 Ravens got humiliated last week can’t see it happening again. The same applies to the Raiders I have them winning 21 to 16.
    ===

    0-3

  35. If I told you one team this week would be a field goal away from 60 points on the scoreboard, I’d bet my house that not a single one of you would peg the Texans for that output.

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to leave a comment. Not a member? Register now!