PFT’s Week Nine picks

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I managed to go 10-3 in the picks last week. Unfortunately, MDS went 11-2 — and now he has a five-game lead.

The only saving grace is that nobody cares. Except him.

But with another 13 games on the docket, you care if your favorite team is playing, or if you’re simply gather as many opinions as possible before calling your bookie.

Before you make that call, make that scroll.

Bills at Jets

MDS’s take: The Bills are a run-first team, but against a weak Jets pass defense I see Tyrod Taylor hitting some deep balls, and Buffalo putting a lot of points on the board.

MDS’s pick: Bills 31, Jets 21.

Florio’s take: Buffalo keeps finding ways to win, the Jets keep finding ways to lose. The Bills may be finding their way back to the playoffs for the first time since 1999.

Florio’s pick: Bills 24, Jets 20.


Colts at Texans

MDS’s take: The Texans could be set for a letdown after such a hard-fought loss on Sunday in Seattle, but against the Colts they should take care of business easily.

MDS’s pick: Texans 35, Colts 20.

Florio’s take: The Texans are one of the best 3-4 teams in recent league history. The Colts are 2-6, and they should be worse than that.

Florio’s pick: Texans 42, Colts 17.


Bengals at Jaguars

MDS’s take: Jacksonville has the best pass defense in the NFL, and they’re going to make Andy Dalton‘s life miserable on Sunday.

MDS’s pick: Jaguars 20, Bengals 7.

Florio’s take: The good-week, bad-week Jags had a bye week on what would have been a bad week. If they can play this week like they do when playing well, they should easily beat a Bengals team that simply can’t match Jacksonville’s talent.

Florio’s pick: Jaguars 30, Bengals 20.


Buccaneers at Saints

MDS’s take: The Bucs may be the biggest disappointment in the NFL this year. Their pass defense has been a mess, and Drew Brees could easily go for 400 yards on Sunday.

MDS’s pick: Saints 31, Buccaneers 17.

Florio’s take: The Saints are surging, and the Bucs are falling apart. A banged-up Jameis Winston simply can’t will the team to wins, especially when the various pieces aren’t fitting together the way they should.

Florio’s pick: Saints 34, Buccaneers 23.


Rams at Giants

MDS’s take: The last time the Giants suspended a cornerback, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, they responded with a big upset win over the Broncos. This week the Giants suspended a cornerback again, Janoris Jenkins, but I don’t see another upset coming.

MDS’s pick: Rams 30, Giants 14.

Florio’s take: Cornerback Janoris Jenkins won’t be getting a chance to face his former team. Which is very good news for his former team, which is good enough to do at MetLife Stadium what the other team in L.A. did when the Giants had Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall.

Florio’s pick: Rams 27, Giants 17.


Falcons at Panthers

MDS’s take: This is a close call, as both of these teams have been inconsistent and unpredictable this season. When I can’t decide who to pick, I go with the home team.

MDS’s pick: Panthers 17, Falcons 16.

Florio’s take: The trade of receiver Kelvin Benjamin could actually diversify the offense, which will be helpful against a Falcons team that is still struggling to find consistency. Home team gets the edge in a game that could go either way.

Florio’s pick: Panthers 27, Falcons 23.


Broncos at Eagles

MDS’s take: The Broncos are cratering and the Eagles are surging. Philadelphia should get a big win and maintain the league’s best record.

MDS’s pick: Eagles 28, Broncos 10.

Florio’s take: Brock Osweiler gets the start for the Broncos. Enough said.

Florio’s pick: Eagles 30, Broncos 17.


Ravens at Titans

MDS’s take: Joe Flacco was playing as well as he’s played all season when he got knocked out of Thursday night’s game against Miami. Unfortunately, I think he’ll come back to earth against a Titans pass defense that’s better than Miami’s.

MDS’s pick: Titans 20, Ravens 10.

Florio’s take: Marcus Mariota has his mobility back, which is bad news for a Ravens defense that has a rough time against the run.

Florio’s pick: Titans 24, Ravens 16.


Cardinals at 49ers

MDS’s take: The 49ers are going to get their first win eventually, and I say it’ll come here, against a reeling and injury-plagued Cardinals team.

MDS’s pick: 49ers 21, Cardinals 20.

Florio’s take: The good news is that the Cardinals won’t face Jimmy Garoppolo. The bad news is that the Cardinals will be playing Drew Stanton. The best news is that the 49ers remain the 49ers.

Florio’s pick: Cardinals 24, 49ers 20.


Washington at Seahawks

MDS’s take: Washington’s injury-plagued offensive line is going to struggle against the Seahawks’ defense, while Seattle’s offensive line gets a boost from the arrival of Duane Brown. That makes the difference.

MDS’s pick: Seahawks 17, Washington 14.

Florio’s take: Seattle keeps getting better and better, and eventually they’ll be locking up the No. 1 seed in the conference.

Florio’s pick: Seahawks 28, Washington 20.


Chiefs at Cowboys

MDS’s take: With or without Ezekiel Elliott, I like Kansas City because I don’t see the Cowboys’ defense holding the Chiefs’ offense in check.

MDS’s pick: Chiefs 27, Cowboys 17.

Florio’s take: Dallas has blown double-digit leads in each of their last two home games. The Cowboys won’t have to worry about that this time, especially if they don’t have Ezekiel Elliott.

Florio’s pick: Chiefs 27, Cowboys 20.


Raiders at Dolphins

MDS’s take: The Dolphins are 4-3, but they’re not as good as their record indicates, and the Jay Ajayi trade suggests that they know they’re building for the future, not winning this year. I like the Raiders to win in Miami.

MDS’s pick: Raiders 24, Dolphins 17.

Florio’s take: A couple of struggling offenses meet in what may be a de facto elimination game. With Jay Cutler back and the Dolphins getting a wake-up call from the elimination of Jay Ajayi, advantage Miami.

Florio’s pick: Dolphins 20, Raiders 14.


Lions at Packers

MDS’s take: The Lions got very lucky this season as the only team in the NFC North that hasn’t had chaos at the quarterback position. If Aaron Rodgers were playing I’d pick the Packers, but with Brett Hundley at the helm I’ll take Detroit to get a rare road win in Green Bay.

MDS’s pick: Lions 21, Packers 20.

Florio’s take: If the Packers had gotten Brian Hoyer, maybe it would have gone differently. (It wouldn’t have.) Either way, Brett Hundley falls to 0-2.

Florio’s pick: Lions 27, Packers 21.

48 responses to “PFT’s Week Nine picks

  1. “Florio’s take: The Texans are one of the best 3-4 teams in recent league history. The Colts are 2-6, and they should be worse than that.”

    The Colts lost 4th qtr leads in 4 games.
    They should be BETTER than that.

  2. I bet ESPN was really excited about this game in August. Now? Ugly. Very ugly. I have no idea how you guys picked so many points for the Packers. Shouldn’t Hundley have 1 good quarter before you pick them to actually score points? Anyway, I’ll be rooting for the Packers to win since the Lions are the Vikings only opponent in a two team race for the division.

  3. MDS… I’m not sure we see much passing from Taylor tonight, especially once McCoy gets going. Incognito turns into a beast against the Jets… look for #64 to make first contact, then you’ll see that flash of lightning go by… that will be Shady.

  4. MDS: I think he [Flacco] will come back to earth against a Titans pass defense that’s better than Miami’s.
    —————————–
    I’m not so sure – Miami have a tough D and is ranked 7th against the pass this year so far whereas Titans are 15th.

  5. I am no longer a Raiders fan. They are too pathetic, and as Toronto doesn’t have a team of its own it was a weak fandom to begin with. So…

    Let’s go Buffalo! 6-2!!

  6. terripet says:
    November 2, 2017 at 9:43 am
    Three locks this week Denver. Oakland. Atlanta

    ————-

    Here is another lock: Andrew Luck will not play a game this season

  7. The Lions got very lucky this season as the only team in the NFC North that hasn’t had chaos at the quarterback position.

    Yeah. Aside from the part where Stafford gets his ass kicked week in and week out..
    Sacked 17 times in 3 games at one point.

  8. I hope Seattle loses at home to the Redskins. The Redskins usually play to the level of their opponent. I say that but honestly haven’t seen a single Redskins game since the Redskins torched the packers last year. I’m not a Redskins fan but sure do like the Redskins logo and the Redskins name. I forget who Washington is because I say Redskins as often as possible when talking about the Redskins and football in general… Seahawks are overrated

  9. terripet says:
    November 2, 2017 at 9:43 am
    Three locks this week Denver. Oakland. Atlanta
    ———————-
    If you are locking them in to lose then I agree.

  10. Florioismyhero says:
    November 2, 2017 at 10:21 am

    The bills/jets game tonight should be amazing! must see tv right there! LOL
    ————————

    Might be a decent game. TNF games have been pretty good this season.

  11. Different New Lions says:
    November 2, 2017 at 9:33 am
    I’m attending my first Lions game ever on Monday. I can’t believe they’re favorites in Green Bay. Please get a W!!!
    //////////
    How much were your tickets? I hope you bought them after AR went down. Ticket prices are 50% cheaper now!

  12. Florio’s take: Dallas has blown double-digit leads in each of their last two home games. The Cowboys won’t have to worry about that this time, especially if they don’t have Ezekiel Elliott.

    Florio’s pick: Chiefs 27, Cowboys 20.

    KC ranks 29th in run defense. Even without Zeke, Dallas might make a game of this.

  13. I won’t argue whether or not Joe Flacco is “elite” (he is not). But all we heard about in B’more during the preseason is how elite this defense is supposed to be. If they play up to the hype this should be a win for the Ravens. Add a special teams score and the best kicker in the NFL and you get:

    Ravens 23
    Titans 14

  14. Lock of the week for me is Eagles over Broncos 27 to 14 because Denver’s qb situation is god awful and the Eagles will capitalize on Denver’s mistakes. Upset of the week will be Ravens over Titans 20 to 10 since I’m not completely sold on the Titans.

  15. The Bengals won’t lose to Jacksonville because of Dalton.

    They’ll lose to Jacksonville because he was killed during the game. If I’m AJ McCarron, I may wish the trade went through.

  16. I like how the Broncos backs are against the wall. I think they come out on sunday and play much better than people think. If only they can get a small amount of offense from Brock O

  17. I wouldn’t say the Dolphins are building for the future. Ajayi didn’t have the right attitude even when they were winning, Gase never liked his work ethic since he got there, Drake fits that offense as a pass catching speedster better than Ajayi’s power game….it just needed to happen, that doesn’t mean they have given up on the season.

  18. milehighcityboss says:
    November 2, 2017 at 11:41 am

    If only they can get a small amount of offense from Brock O
    ——————-

    That seems to be the general consensus.

  19. So Dallas has blown double-digit leads in each of its last two home games? Funny…in each of its last two home games, THE OPPOSING TEAM WAS COMING OFF WITH EXTRA REST (and Dallas had a short week in the first one on top of that). So let’s see: Dallas greatly outplayed its opponents in each game, and then MAGICALLY got outplayed later in the game by rested opponents…exactly the point in the game when rest matters. Try doing some research for once instead of trolling.

  20. cribbage12 says:
    November 2, 2017 at 11:38 am
    Green Bay 31, Lions 26. As true as Vikings fans’ obsession with the Packers. They’ll be glued to their TVs.
    ///////////
    First, of course we will be watching. We love football, and our biggest foe in the Lions are playing. But, I’m genuinely interested in how you figure the Packers score 31 points. Yes, Hundley has to play better. I’d even bet on it. Why? Because 80 yards and a 39 QBR would seem to be impossible to have again.

  21. Saints are figuring things out and finding ways to win… Bucs are doing the exact opposite on a downward spiral… Saints win decisively!

    Falcons still working on putting things all together and the Panthers play just enough to barely win or lose… Panthers just being at home won’t be enough to fix their offensive ups and downs… Falcons win

  22. The Eagles-Broncos game is a defensive monster game. It will be interesting to see how Wentz deals with Denver’s pass defense. The TE will need to step up big time and Wentz will be doing a lot of scrambling. Can Osweiller avoid turnovers is the key for Denver’s chance to upset?

  23. Prior to the start of the season, I looked at the Ravens and thought, “This team could win 11 games and it wouldn’t surprise me. This team could also lose 11 games and it wouldn’t surprise me.” I didn’t figure out till just recently, but that evaluation translates to one thing in the NFL: 8-8.

    The next two games are very winnable for the Ravens, but that doesn’t change the fact this is a .500 team.

    Ravens 17
    Titans 14

  24. cribbage12 says:
    November 2, 2017 at 11:38 am
    Green Bay 31, Lions 26. As true as Vikings fans’ obsession with the Packers. They’ll be glued to their TVs.

    ***

    You’re right. Vikings fans shouldn’t be interested in opponent divisional games. Not at all . Especially on a bye week.

  25. I love the pick of the Chiefs over the Cowboys. They both did it last week and it worked out quite well for the Boys! Anyone who thinks this is a layup better rethink it…the Vegas spread opened at pick’em and only moved Chiefs -1 after the Zeke suspension. I expect Hunt to have a good game against the Cowboys run defense, but it is better with Lee and Hitchens playing again. Kelce likely puts up some nice numbers but in the end it will still be pound the rock (don’t sleep on Rod Smith and think it’s all Morris) and get Dez going. Against the Chiefs porous pass defense (Peters sticks to one side and Dez will play 1/3rd of his snaps out of the slot) Dak to Dez could be HUGE!

  26. Hundley has the skills to keep the Pack afloat, and I expect to see him throw more now that he’s had more reps with he offense. Packers 21 Lions 14

  27. Peters going down at LT for the Eagles and Duane Brown showing up in Seattle to be LT is the difference.

    Seattle 28 Eagles 17

    Can’t wait to see the Eagles in Seattle later this year….maybe twice!

  28. Florio, you both missed on the Jets game. The Cowboys will have Zeke and the Texans won’t have Watson. You should take a mulligan and repick this week.

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