PFT’s Week 11 picks

Getty Images

The bad news is that I’m now nine games behind MDS through 10 weeks. (Pointing out that it’s through 10 weeks makes it sound a little less lame.) The good news is that it can’t get much worse this week.

We disagree on only one game. And it’s one of the biggest games of the week.

Scroll down to see our takes and picks for all of the 14 games to be played this weekend, starting tonight with the Titans visiting the Steelers in Pittsburgh.

Titans at Steelers

MDS’s take: The Steelers have a tendency to play down to the level of their opponents in games against bad teams like the Colts (whom the Steelers barely beat) and the Bears (who beat the Steelers). But against a pretty good team like the Titans, the Steelers will come to play.

MDS’s pick: Steelers 30, Titans 20.

Florio’s take: It’s often a crapshoot when it comes to the Steelers, but they tend to be focused and prepared when playing in prime time, where they’re 31-16 under Mike Tomlin. The twist in this case comes from Titans assistant Dick LeBeau knowing the team’s offense and personnel incredibly well. Under the lights at Heinz Field, that probably won’t be enough to make the difference — as long as the Steelers truly show up.

Florio’s pick: Steelers 27, Titans 23.


Lions at Bears

MDS’s take: This won’t be an easy game for the Lions, who may struggle to put many points on the board on a cold day in Chicago. But the Lions’ defense should hold Mitchell Trubisky in check well enough to win a close game.

MDS’s pick: Lions 14, Bears 10.

Florio’s take: The Bears are dangerous, especially at home. But the Lions are finding their stride by racking up wins and not taking anyone for granted. They’ll check another box as they move toward a Thanksgiving showdown with the Vikings.

Florio’s pick: Lions 24, Bears 13.


Jaguars at Browns

MDS’s take: DeShone Kizer had his best game last week in Detroit, but this week against an excellent Jaguars pass defense, he’s going to have a tough time. The Jaguars should win handily.

MDS’s pick: Jaguars 21, Browns 6.

Florio’s take: A pair of franchises mired in years of difficulty are moving in very different directions. And the Jaguars will show Browns fans what the Browns could be if they ever find a way to make good decisions about young players over a period of several years.

Florio’s pick: Jaguars 20, Browns 9.


Ravens at Packers

MDS’s take: Brett Hundley showed some signs of improvement last week against the Bears, but the Packers are still going to have a tough time putting many points on the board on Sunday, and the Ravens should win a low-scoring game.

MDS’s pick: Ravens 17, Packers 13.

Florio’s take: The Ravens have had two weeks to get ready for a showdown in a place where the Packers suddenly are having a hard time winning games, primarily because they don’t have Aaron Rodgers. Baltimore is capable of a periodically impressive performance, and if one doesn’t happen on Sunday, their chances of getting to the playoffs could sink close to zero.

Florio’s pick: Ravens 24, Packers 20.


Cardinals at Texans

MDS’s take: In a battle of two teams with backup quarterbacks, I see the Cardinals’ defense forcing Tom Savage into a few turnovers to win an ugly game.

MDS’s pick: Cardinals 16, Texans 13.

Florio’s take: Drew Stanton or Blaine Gabbert will be facing Tom Savage, while Colin Kaepernick continues to wait for a call that may never come. The difference maker will be Adrian Peterson, who will have an easier time finding running lanes than when he faced the Seahawks.

Florio’s pick: Cardinals 23, Texans 17.


Buccaneers at Dolphins

MDS’s take: This is going to be an ugly game between two ugly offenses. I’ll take Jay Cutler to just slightly outplay Ryan Fitzpatrick.

MDS’s pick: Dolphins 14, Buccaneers 10.

Florio’s take: The Week One game that was delayed due to a hurricane comes at a time when both teams seems to be mired in quicksand. After three straight losses, the Dolphins get a chance to start to turn things around.

Florio’s pick: Dolphins 27, Buccaneers 17.


Rams at Vikings

MDS’s take: Jared Goff takes on Case Keenum in a matchup of two quarterbacks who look great this year after looking terrible as teammates with the Rams last year. This game feels like a coin flip to me, but I’ll take the home team.

MDS’s pick: Vikings 23, Rams 20.

Florio’s take: Game of the week. A rematch of some classic playoff contests, between a pair of teams that may be destined to meet again in the elimination round. Minnesota’s defense is the difference-maker, especially at home.

Florio’s pick: Vikings 17, Rams 13.


Chiefs at Giants

MDS’s take: This is the easiest game on the board to pick. The Giants have quit on Ben McAdoo, and the Chiefs will roll.

MDS’s pick: Chiefs 35, Giants 10.

Florio’s take: Andy Reid rarely loses after the bye, in any year. The Giants in 2017 rarely win.

Florio’s pick: Chiefs 37, Giants 17.


Washington at Saints

MDS’s take: The Saints are playing as well as anyone in the NFL right now, and they’ll keep their march to the playoffs going.

MDS’s pick: Saints 30, Washington 17.

Florio’s take: Washington has shown that it can win a big game on the road, and this is a big game on the road. But it may be bigger than what Washington can handle, given the dramatic improvement of the Saints, on both sides of the ball.

Florio’s pick: Saints 27, Washington 23.


Bills at Chargers

MDS’s take: Nathan Peterman gets his first career start, while the Chargers don’t know who their quarterback will be, as Philip Rivers is in the concussion protocol. That makes this a tough game to pick but I’ll go with the Chargers.

MDS’s pick: Chargers 20, Bills 17.

Florio’s take: Nathan Peterman could eventually become a very good quarterback for the Bills. For now, a baptism by lightning bolt may be too much to handle.

Florio’s pick: Chargers 28, Bills 17.


Bengals at Broncos

MDS’s take: The Broncos have gone into the tank in recent weeks, but the Bengals’ offense probably won’t put many points on the board in Denver. I’ll pick the home team in a close and low-scoring game.

MDS’s pick: Broncos 14, Bengals 13.

Florio’s take: Two years ago, a late-season showdown between these two teams had a postseason bye on the line. This season, both teams have had their playoff hopes go farewell long ago.

Florio’s pick: Broncos 17, Bengals 12.


Patriots vs. Raiders

MDS’s take: The altitude of Mexico City will make this game an interesting one in the kicking game, and a 70-yard field goal isn’t out of the question. Look for Tom Brady to complete some deep passes against the Raiders’ secondary and win a high-scoring game.

MDS’s pick: Patriots 35, Raiders 31.

Florio’s take: Whether Massachusetts, California, or Mexico, the Raiders simply aren’t ready to keep pace with the Patriots.

Florio’s pick: Patriots 34, Raiders 20.


Eagles at Cowboys

MDS’s take: The Cowboys are reeling, and the Eagles coming to town isn’t going to make life any easier.

MDS’s pick: Eagles 24, Cowboys 17.

Florio’s take: It’s desperation time for Dallas, and sometimes desperation is the difference. The Cowboys find a higher gear and secure a hard-fought win, delaying (but not preventing) the inevitable clinching of the division by the Eagles.

Florio’s pick: Cowboys 27, Eagles 24.


Falcons at Seahawks

MDS’s take: The Falcons played one of their best games of the season on Sunday and the Seahawks are struggling with injuries, but I still like Seattle to take this one.

MDS’s pick: Seahawks 20, Falcons 17.

Florio’s take: Russell Wilson’s one-man band continues to find a way to make something close enough to actual music in Seattle.

Florio’s pick: Seahawks 20, Falcons 13.

60 responses to “PFT’s Week 11 picks

  1. MDS’s take: The altitude of Mexico City will make this game an interesting one in the kicking game, and a 70-yard field goal isn’t out of the question.
    ———-
    It would have to come at the end of the half or end of the game as a miss would give your opponent terrific field position. But it would be fun to watch.

  2. Steelers, Lions, Jaguars, Ravens, Cardinals, Dolphins, Rams, Chiefs, Saints, Chargers, Broncos, Patriots, Eagles and Seahawks. These are this weeks winners.

  3. When Florio said they disagreed on only one game, I assumed it was the Viking game because he usually picks against them. I do agree the Vikings will win a close game but I doubt they’ll hold the Rams to 13 points.

  4. I have a bad feeling that the Titans will win. If Big Ben can only squeak out 20 points on a last second field goal, in a dome, against the lowly Colts, coming off of a bye week I don’t like his chances against an actual mediocre team.

    If the Steeler defense gives up 20 points it is a surefire, slam dunk, done deal loss for the Steelers. That’s just how good Big Ben is.

  5. I cannot say enough how much I personally appreciate whoever finally listened and started underlining the games and even added a divider between games. Now instead of spending several headache inducing minutes trying to find the games I am interested in, I find myself reading the entire thing. Well done. Oh, and #SKOL!

  6. The Cowboys have a better chance of beating the Eagles than the Falcons do of beating the Seahawks?……….Really?

  7. Florio’s take: Drew Stanton or Blaine Gabbert will be facing Tom Savage, while Colin Kaepernick continues to wait for a call that may never come.
    ——-
    Those tears…they taste so good!

  8. I’d love to know Jeff Fisher’s thoughts on the Case Keenum vs Jared Goff matchup this weekend.

    Also, if the Ravens don’t beat an Aaron Rodgers-less Packers on Sunday, they may as well – *ahem* – pack it in the rest of the season.

    Ravens 24
    Packers 14

  9. The Rams vs Vikings game should be a good one. I hope the Vikes bring their defense this weekend, cause if they resemble what they did last week it could get ugly. Griff should be healthy though, which makes a huge difference.

  10. I don’t know why everyone is assuming the Patriots will blow past the Raiders. Unlike the Broncos they actually have a good quarterback. This is going to be a shootout however due to the fact that the Raiders pass rush will probably get to Brady in a key moment I think unfortunately the Raiders win this one. I think Brady and the offense will do well but the defense gives up too much Raiders 31 Patriots 27. I’d love to be proven wrong of course but something tells me the Raiders are going to be a problem.

  11. “eaglesfanalways says:

    November 16, 2017 at 10:40 am

    Cowboys over the Eagles? Desperation doesn’t cancel out talent.”

    ********************

    This Thanksgiving, given his record, I will be thankful that Florio picked against the Eagles.

  12. Mexico City is over 7000 feet elevation. Pats have been practicing at high altitude since last Friday (plus the mile high game already). Raiders continue to practice at 10 feet above sea level. Good ‘ol Del Rio for you.

  13. Florio’s take: Drew Stanton or Blaine Gabbert will be facing Tom Savage, while Colin Kaepernick continues to wait for a call that may never come.
    ———————————————–
    Okay if you are a below avg QB you can probably keep a job BUT if you are a below avg QB with a TON of off-the-field garbage hanging around your neck…then you don’t get a job.
    How many times to we have to tell you that a below avg QB is not worth risking your fanbase?
    CK needs to get his tail into the CFL and prove he is worth taking the risk.

  14. cinfante54 says:
    November 16, 2017 at 11:05 am
    Cowboys will be missing: Elliot, Lee, Smith

    Eagles will be missing:

    Peters, Sproles, Hicks

    But yeah Florio, pick the cowboys.

    Fixed it for you, although I agree with your mockery of Florio nonetheless. I find it amusing that I’m hearing all these Cowboys fans screaming “what do you expect with our LT out?!” when the Eagles lost their All-Pro LT and haven’t missed a beat. Talent, gentlemen. Thy name is BIRDS.

  15. Philthy missing some pieces, mainly their LT and MLB, whom are out for the year. I think this is being under sold because it hasn’t hurt them yet, yet being the operative word. Cowboys D line has actually been more productive and as disruptive as philthy’s (look at the d line numbers, I was pleasantly surprised myself).

  16. The Vikings defense limited Kurt Cousins to just 1 TD pass. They certainly can limit Jared Goff too since he’s only his second year and can be easily rattled. If Everson Griffen plays, Jared Goff should prepare to run for his life.

  17. Exciting times. Under PFT’s obscure “Costanza rule,” if Florio goes down -15 games, he is contractually obligated to start picking the opponent of the team he thinks will really win.

  18. citizenstrange says:
    November 16, 2017 at 10:37 am
    I have a bad feeling that the Titans will win. If Big Ben can only squeak out 20 points on a last second field goal, in a dome, against the lowly Colts, coming off of a bye week I don’t like his chances against an actual mediocre team.

    If the Steeler defense gives up 20 points it is a surefire, slam dunk, done deal loss for the Steelers. That’s just how good Big Ben is.

    I won’t argue the fact that Ben has had his issues this season or that the offense has been a disappointment. To place all the blame on one player tho is just stupid. Receivers have missed catchable balls and there have been plenty of drive killing penalties to go around.

  19. willkill:

    Left them out intentionally due to no one being on the Eagles’ injury report. All players are healthy, outside of the out for the year IR players.

  20. In Teddy We Trust says:
    November 16, 2017 at 10:33 am
    When Florio said they disagreed on only one game, I assumed it was the Viking game because he usually picks against them. I do agree the Vikings will win a close game but I doubt they’ll hold the Rams to 13 points.
    —————————————

    J-Ville held the Rams to 13 offensive points (gave up 2 ST TDs though, one a blocked punt), the Vikes can too.

  21. I don’t see the vikes holding the Rams to 13 either, if the Vikings win this one it’ll be because Case plays like he did in the first 3 quarters of last weeks game and the Vikes squeak out a 31-24 win.

  22. I’m still not really sure how good either the Vikings or Rams are even halfway through the season. Are they good, or do so many of the other NFC teams just suck?

  23. I question the Seattle Atlanta pick. The hawks still loose the one they should win, and win the ones they should loose. Atlanta has a ton of weapons, if they get rolling?

  24. Post from earlier today: Last year the 49ers went 1-4 while Gabbert was starting and 1-10 with Colin Kaepernick starting, and the year before the 49ers went 3-5 while Gabbert was starting and 2-6 while Colin Kaepernick was starting.

    And you make the comment about Gabbert playing while Kaep sits???

  25. purpleguy says:

    November 16, 2017 at 1:24 pm

    I’m still not really sure how good either the Vikings or Rams are even halfway through the season. Are they good, or do so many of the other NFC teams just suck?

    ————

    I think it’s a combination of both. The Vikings are playing well, and there are tons of injuries in the league.

  26. darkneptune73 says:

    November 16, 2017 at 11:59 am

    I’m more concerned with Vikings handling Todd Gurley than I am with Jared Goff.

    ———-

    The Vikings are #3 against the run. They limited Bell earlier this year. I’m not concerned about the Rams offense at all. They have blow out bad teams. Goff is a young QB will be uncomfortable against the Vikings D.

    I’m worried about Aaron Donald. He has the ability to ruin a game.

  27. FWIW folks, that All-Pro LT Tyron Smith is more likely to play than not. Even if he only participates in the walk-thru this week.

    That said it is looking like a loss for the Boys as MDS & Florio have each went 0-3 in the Cowboys’ games the previous 3 weeks. With Florio getting desperate to make up ground and picking the Cowboys it has virtually assured Philthy gets out of Big D with a win.

  28. Eagles missing:
    LT Jason Peters
    MLB Jordan Hicks
    PR/Swiss Army Knife/3rd down specialist Darren Sproles
    STs Ace Chris Maragos
    Kicker Caleb Sturgis
    Was missing starting CB Ronald Darby since week 1. Looks like he’ll return for week 11.

  29. Bucs are a hot mess but the Dolphins aren’t exactly taking the league by storm… Fitz at QB gives me more confidence than the other they could win… Dolphins defense slightly better… Dolphins win

    Redskins are respectable but Saints are a hot team right now… Saints win

    Seahawks and Falcons are built well but keep having hiccups… Falcons have had more time to adjust while Seahawks are replacing crucial pieces… Falcons win

  30. I like the Eagles pointing out the players they are missing as well. You know what else they are missing?? Come on… you know it. That’s right, they are missing a Super Bowl trophy! The don’t have a single one.

  31. Eagles have 0 Super Bowls. This is true. How many Super Bowls for Jerky Jones and the Coqboys since the implementation of the salary cap and free agency?

    I hear the History Channel is doing a documentary on the Coqboys 5 Super Bowls.

  32. “pacificdan says:

    November 16, 2017 at 2:56 pm

    I like the Eagles pointing out the players they are missing as well. You know what else they are missing?? Come on… you know it. That’s right, they are missing a Super Bowl trophy! The don’t have a single one.”

    *********************************************

    That’s ok Danny boy, something tells me we will more than make up for it over the next 10 to 15 years. Here’s to many years of joy for us and misery for you!

  33. t’s often a crapshoot when it comes to the Steelers, but they tend to be focused and prepared when playing in prime time****

    ****as long as they’re not playing the Patriots

  34. Steelers should win a close game but not with 27 or 30 points. They have averaged about 21 points per game. 20-17 seems more likely. If TN scores in the 20s, they’ll have an advantage. Although the Steelers are 16-3 (!) in the last 19 games.

  35. That’s ok Danny boy, something tells me we will more than make up for it over the next 10 to 15 years. Here’s to many years of joy for us and misery for you!
    _
    You might well be right. The Eagles are clearly the better team right now but man its fun to pick on the Eagles lack of SB wins.

  36. I believe the Falcons-Seahawks game to be objectively more interesting than the Eagles-Cowboys game, but I’m a ‘Hawk fan so I will disregard it.

    That said, I still find Rams-Vikings, Patriots-Raiders, Redskins-Saints and Titans-Steelers (though that game has now been played) all more interesting and more likely to be exciting than the Eagles-Cowboys game. If the Eagles continue to play well, they will wreck the Cowboys. If the Cowboys are in the game at all, they will need some luck and some poor play by Phila, which sounds like a terrible game to watch.

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to leave a comment. Not a member? Register now!