If it’s a two-touchdown point spread in the postseason, it’s a Patriots game

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The Patriots are two-touchdown favorites against the Titans on Saturday, a point spread that’s unheard of in the postseason — except for games involving the Patriots.

In the 21st Century, there have been seven NFL postseason games with point spreads of 12 points or more, and all seven of them were in games involving the Patriots.

Here’s the full list of playoff games with point spreads of 12 points or higher since 2000:

2018: Patriots favored by 13.5 vs. Titans
2017: Patriots favored by 16 vs. Texans (Patriots won 34-16)
2012: Patriots favored by 13.5 vs. Broncos (Patriots won 45-10)
2008: Patriots favored by 12.5 vs. Giants (Giants won 17-14)
2008: Patriots favored by 14 vs. Chargers (Patriots won 21-12)
2008: Patriots favored by 13.5 vs. Jaguars (Patriots won 31-20)
2002: Rams favored by 14 vs. Patriots (Patriots won 20-17)

We’re so accustomed to the Patriots being favorites that it’s easy to forget they were the biggest underdogs in any Super Bowl this century when they faced the Rams. They won that game, and since then have won four of five postseason games as heavy favorites. The Titans will hope to look like the Giants 10 years ago, or the Patriots 16 years ago, on Sunday.

82 responses to “If it’s a two-touchdown point spread in the postseason, it’s a Patriots game

  1. Bookies are counting on humans to bet based off their emotional love for the Pats or their emotional disdain for the Pats. Lines are not based off of X’s and O’s which is completely unpredictable. Betting is instead based off of human behavior which is extremely predicable.

  2. So, Peyton Manning has never been more than an 11 point favorite in the playoffs? Wow, not close to the GOAT. oh, and they lost that game to the Charges 28-24, OUCH!!!!!!!!!!!!

  3. Only fools bet giving 14 points. The Patriots will probably cover, but a garbage time touchdown at the end of the game will cost you. Looks like the Patriots are 3-3 in these games in the playoffs. They never really look to blow teams out.

  4. I’m hoping for a good game and that my guys stay in it and squeak a W out late!

    Unfortunately hope is not a strategy.

    Nonetheless, I’ll be cheering like an idiot for my Titans the whole way through.

    Go Titans!

  5. Greatest sports dynasty of the modern era, hands down. Constantly choosing last in the draft, but still churning out double digit win seasons. Hail to the GOAT, BB.

  6. It’s because those aren’t “true” point spreads…in the past 10 years, bettors have stopped betting the line and instead have started betting the teaser cards…in most cases giving you anywhere from 6-10 additional points… this is because the NFL has never seen consistent dominance like the Patriots before…nor have they seen consistent ineptitude like the Browns…bettors have realized that teasing Patriot point spreads has resulted in winning your bet like 80% of time or whatever the Patriots winning percentage has been the past 15 years…same with betting against the Browns…

    If you need more evidence look at the Ravens last 2 point spreads….for some reason they were double digit favorites over the Colts and Bengals…and it’s not like the Ravens have had that dominant defense like years past and on top of that the offense has been among the league worst….they don’t deserve to be double digit favorites against anyone…had they been true lines like they were supposed to be, the Ravens wouldn’t have covered 6 point spreads but tease the line 10 pts and they cover….

    by Vegas setting abnormally high spoint spreads they’ve limited the effectiveness of teaser cards….

    that concludes today’s free lesson!!!

  7. Nonetheless, I’ll be cheering like an idiot for my Titans the whole way through.
    ——–
    No. Not like an idiot. Like a loyal fan. There is no shame in rooting for your favorite team. Having hope doesn’t make you an idiot. That makes you normal to have hope.

    The fans that claim they only root for winners. Those are the front running idiots.
    Good luck titans4ever! Seriously.

    Go Patriots!

  8. “Looks like the Patriots are 3-3 in these games in the playoffs. They never really look to blow teams out.”

    Postseason opponents are typically much better teams than a lot of the regular season opponents, and hence much less likely to be blown out.

    “It should be a 2 touchdown spread because its the AFC and that conference typically has only one or two good teams.”

    Absolutely wrong. There have been many years where the AFC has been the stronger conference, and many where the NFC has been the stronger one. It goes back and forth.

  9. pastabelly says:
    January 12, 2018 at 9:48 am
    Only fools bet giving 14 points. The Patriots will probably cover, but a garbage time touchdown at the end of the game will cost you. Looks like the Patriots are 3-3 in these games in the playoffs. They never really look to blow teams out.


    Yep. I’m not touching this point spread. The Patriots M.O. is to go up big and then let the other team score a garbage time TD to make it “closer”.

  10. atthemurph says:
    January 12, 2018 at 9:49 am
    It should be a 2 touchdown spread because its the AFC and that conference typically has only one or two good teams.


    And yet the AFC has won the Super Bowl in 4 out of the last 5 tries. Go figure.

    🙂

  11. If the Patriots win tomorrow night… this will make it 9 consecutive seasons an AFC East team has made it to the conference championship game. No other division in football can say the same.

    I forgot! The AFC East is the weakest division in the history of sports and that’s the only reason why the Patriots win… or something.

    🙂

  12. What idiot would only give a 2 touchdown spread. The Patriots are going to win by at least 4 touchdowns. Bank on it. Nothing can stand in our way this year.

  13. PatriotsSystemDynasty says:
    January 12, 2018 at 10:44 am
    What idiot would only give a 2 touchdown spread. The Patriots are going to win by at least 4 touchdowns. Bank on it. Nothing can stand in our way this year.

    3 3 Rate This

    ———————

    Sounds great Dan Shaugnessy/”PatsSBChamps4Life” troll.

  14. my_old_name_was_offensive says:
    January 12, 2018 at 9:54 am
    It’s because those aren’t “true” point spreads…in the past 10 years, bettors have stopped betting the line and instead have started betting the teaser cards…in most cases giving you anywhere from 6-10 additional points… this is because the NFL has never seen consistent dominance like the Patriots before…nor have they seen consistent ineptitude like the Browns…bettors have realized that teasing Patriot point spreads has resulted in winning your bet like 80% of time or whatever the Patriots winning percentage has been the past 15 years…same with betting against the Browns…

    If you need more evidence look at the Ravens last 2 point spreads….for some reason they were double digit favorites over the Colts and Bengals…and it’s not like the Ravens have had that dominant defense like years past and on top of that the offense has been among the league worst….they don’t deserve to be double digit favorites against anyone…had they been true lines like they were supposed to be, the Ravens wouldn’t have covered 6 point spreads but tease the line 10 pts and they cover….

    by Vegas setting abnormally high spoint spreads they’ve limited the effectiveness of teaser cards….

    that concludes today’s free lesson!!!

    If you are going tell everyone that you are the smartest guy in the room at least have facts to back it up.

    Your statement about this not a “true” line is not valid. Lines are set to split the money down the middle, they make their money on the the Vig, that is why Lines move up and down according to where the is being bet. When you say the Las Vegas has never seen anything like this, I will prove you wrong by telling you to google the point spreads from the the Bills 90’s dominate era, they were routinely 20pt favorites while the Indianapolis Colts where routinely 20pt underdog. It was a Teasers dream week in and week out!

  15. jagsfan1 says:
    January 12, 2018 at 9:34 am
    I HATE the Patriots but I think they cover.

    53 9 Rate This

    ———————

    I hate the Jags, their uniforms, their colors and their slimy owner about to move them to London.

  16. It wasn’t this century, but here’s one for all ages – the 1994 49ers opened as 19.5 point favorites in the freaking Super Bowl against the Chargers. Think about THAT one. That’s beyond insane. And – they covered, winning by 23, the exact same spread they beat them by in December, late in the regular season. That team lost one game that season and was so dominant, gaining momentum with each week as the season & playoffs rolled on. Incredible team.

  17. “FatBaba says:
    January 12, 2018 at 9:32 am
    The spread is too low. Titans will lose by 21”

    Says the guy with zero credibility (“Tomlin is a lousy coach.” Although come to think of it, that comment probably had little to do with actual football coaching.)

  18. LyinRogerMustGo says:
    January 12, 2018 at 10:32 am
    pastabelly says:
    January 12, 2018 at 9:48 am
    Only fools bet giving 14 points. The Patriots will probably cover, but a garbage time touchdown at the end of the game will cost you. Looks like the Patriots are 3-3 in these games in the playoffs. They never really look to blow teams out.


    Yep. I’m not touching this point spread. The Patriots M.O. is to go up big and then let the other team score a garbage time TD to make it “closer”.

    5 11 Rate This

    ——————

    yep.

    if the pats are way up by chance, bb is known to go vanilla to hide plays and schemes for the next game.

  19. This is the worst mismatch of teams I have seen in recent years, and I wonder why it keeps happening. I know it is about seeding, but since everyone on PFT thinks everything is a conspiracy theory I wonder why (the answer is the Chiefs lost).

    To have a two touchdown favorite in the NFL is appalling. That’s college BS. It shows how unbalanced the NFL really is. There are a few good teams, no great teams, and it inflates the performance of those good teams because they get to play so many mediocre or bad teams. That is why people aren’t watching anymore. Who wants to watch Pats-Titans? Except for Pats fans who don’t know the difference between a win and a WIN. I prefer to win with quality, not run the table against inferior teams. Titans are the worst team in the playoffs and shouldn’t even be there.

  20. It wasn’t this century, but here’s one for all ages – the 1994 49ers opened as 19.5 point favorites in the freaking Super Bowl against the Chargers. Think about THAT one. That’s beyond insane. And – they covered, winning by 23, the exact same spread they beat them by in December, late in the regular season. That team lost one game that season and was so dominant, gaining momentum with each week as the season & playoffs rolled on. Incredible team.


    That Super Bowl was Young vs Stan Humphries. Nuff said.

    Hopefully Humphries doesn’t have CTE. He took some brutal shots in his career.

  21. tylawspick6 says:
    January 12, 2018 at 11:07 am
    LyinRogerMustGo says:
    January 12, 2018 at 10:32 am
    pastabelly says:
    January 12, 2018 at 9:48 am
    Only fools bet giving 14 points. The Patriots will probably cover, but a garbage time touchdown at the end of the game will cost you. Looks like the Patriots are 3-3 in these games in the playoffs. They never really look to blow teams out.

    Yep. I’m not touching this point spread. The Patriots M.O. is to go up big and then let the other team score a garbage time TD to make it “closer”.
    5 11 Rate This
    ——————
    yep.
    if the pats are way up by chance, bb is known to go vanilla to hide plays and schemes for the next game.

    Exactly. That’s how they roll, we’ve seen it again and again.

  22. AFC is Home this year in the SB. If it’s Patriots Vikings in SBLII, funny that the Vikings would be the visiting team having to use visitors locker room and facilities in their own stadium. 🙂

  23. “So you are saying we have a chance. Got it!”

    Of course there is. A few years ago when the Jets came into Foxboro and won in the playoffs it was only 3 weeks after the Pats had beaten them 45-3.

    It won’t be easy if you do win but you never know. Pats should win this but shoulda woulda coulda means nothing compared to the final score.

    I think Belichick will have them ready to go though.

  24. reddzen says:
    January 12, 2018 at 11:08 am
    This is the worst mismatch of teams I have seen in recent years, and I wonder why it keeps happening. I know it is about seeding, but since everyone on PFT thinks everything is a conspiracy theory I wonder why (the answer is the Chiefs lost).
    To have a two touchdown favorite in the NFL is appalling. That’s college BS. It shows how unbalanced the NFL really is. There are a few good teams, no great teams, and it inflates the performance of those good teams because they get to play so many mediocre or bad teams. That is why people aren’t watching anymore. Who wants to watch Pats-Titans? Except for Pats fans who don’t know the difference between a win and a WIN. I prefer to win with quality, not run the table against inferior teams.

    —–
    LOL. No you don’t.

    Nice try.

  25. This is the worst collection of “playoff teams” in a couple decades.

    Even the teams with a QB capable of leading their team to a Super Bowls win are flawed, including the Patriots.

    I suspect the Patriots will do what they do best—wait for the other teams to do dumb things either in defensive game planning or on the field and capitalize on them. As long as they don’t lose the turnover battle, they’ll win back to back titles once again.

  26. LyinRogerMustGo says:
    January 12, 2018 at 11:23 am
    AFC is Home this year in the SB. If it’s Patriots Vikings in SBLII, funny that the Vikings would be the visiting team having to use visitors locker room and facilities in their own stadium. 🙂
    ———–
    Actually not true….it’s been determined that they will not have to give up their locker room or their Winter Park training site, though they will be considered the visitor.

  27. LyinRogerMustGo says:
    January 12, 2018 at 11:23 am
    AFC is Home this year in the SB. If it’s Patriots Vikings in SBLII, funny that the Vikings would be the visiting team having to use visitors locker room and facilities in their own stadium. 🙂


    Well… even if it’s Steelers/Titans or Jags vs Minn in the SB this is still true 🙂

  28. Havent read all the above comments…

    but lets not forget it is also Belichick vs Mularkey….perhaps should be 21 point spread?

  29. harrisonhits2 says:
    January 12, 2018 at 11:36 am
    “So you are saying we have a chance. Got it!”
    Of course there is. A few years ago when the Jets came into Foxboro and won in the playoffs it was only 3 weeks after the Pats had beaten them 45-3.

    I’ve seen this comparison a lot this week. I don’t think it really applies to this game. The 2010 Jets were a better football team than the Titans are. The 2010 Patriots defense was too much like the vintage Colts defense… overdependent on getting turnovers. When turnovers didn’t happen they collapse and that’s exactly what happened. The 2017 Patriots offense, even without Edelman is better than the 2010 Patriots offense and a lot of that is because those Patriots had an average running game, where now we have a full compliment of backs that can give the Titans fits both on the ground and catching out of the backfield.

  30. hardheadedrb says:
    January 12, 2018 at 11:41 am
    LyinRogerMustGo says:
    January 12, 2018 at 11:23 am
    AFC is Home this year in the SB. If it’s Patriots Vikings in SBLII, funny that the Vikings would be the visiting team having to use visitors locker room and facilities in their own stadium. 🙂
    ———–
    Actually not true….it’s been determined that they will not have to give up their locker room or their Winter Park training site, though they will be considered the visitor.


    Interesting…Didn’t know that. Thanks

  31. I’m thinking the Titans should just stay home. It’s rare to see a mismatch of this proportion. It’s possible Belichick May allow the Titans to score at least once so it doesn’t seem like a total blowout.

  32. Whether you win by 1 or 20, doesn’t matter to me – moving on to the AFCCG is the goal and it’s achieved in either scenario. The only people who care about point spreads are bettors, Vegas, and those that hate the Pats enough to come here and tell us all how bad they are because they didn’t “win by enough.”

    Also, an honest question – why wouldn’t you want the Pats in the SB? Every single one they’ve played since 2001 have been great games, win or lose. Would you rather watch a re-hash of the DEN/SEA blowout?

  33. reddzen says:
    January 12, 2018 at 11:08 am
    That is why people aren’t watching anymore. Who wants to watch Pats-Titans? Except for Pats fans who don’t know the difference between a win and a WIN. I prefer to win with quality, not run the table against inferior teams.
    _______________________________________

    What qualifies a Browns fan to pass judgement on the quality of wins or look down their nose at any win for that matter?

  34. LyinRogerMustGo says:
    January 12, 2018 at 10:33 am
    atthemurph says:
    January 12, 2018 at 9:49 am
    It should be a 2 touchdown spread because its the AFC and that conference typically has only one or two good teams.


    And yet the AFC has won the Super Bowl in 4 out of the last 5 tries. Go figure.

    —-

    Maybe the AFC champ has an advantage because they don’t have to play 2 or even 3 really good teams leading up to the SB?

  35. bradygirl12 says:
    January 12, 2018 at 12:10 pm
    You can’t take ANY team for granted, and I don’t think the Patriots will. I think the game will be closer than anyone expects.

    ———————
    What I picture is the Patriots starting the gametrying different things to poke and prod at the Titans and get a feel how the Titans will be playing them. Sometimes this means they start slow, sometimes even go down, and then as the second quarter closes snd at halftime they make the adjustments based on the info they gathered. After that is when you start seeing them pulling out.

    Im not guaranteeing anything, but this is a pattern I have seen often enough to think its likely.

  36. factschecker says:
    January 12, 2018 at 9:39 am
    Bookies are counting on humans to bet based off their emotional love for the Pats or their emotional disdain for the Pats. Lines are not based off of X’s and O’s which is completely unpredictable. Betting is instead based off of human behavior which is extremely predicable.

    ————

    No… bookies try to set a spread they think will balance the money on both teams and they make their money of the betting commission. It’s pretty much a straight math calculation using point differential at the very beginning and then is adjusted based on factors related to the specific match up.

  37. terripet says:
    January 12, 2018 at 11:56 am
    These guys are all pro players weather should not affect them

    ———–

    Look at Miami’s cold weather playoff record and say that. Dome teams and warm weather teams struggle in the cold in the playoffs historically.

    However, cold weather teams generally perform fine in the dome. Really warm weather is a problem, but that doesn’t happen at the end of the year.

  38. The Titans will need to play mistake free football to even be in this game. With the subpar coaching for the Titans I don’t see that happening. The mystique of Gillette in January will make the Titans melt like little snowflakes. The Patriots cover the spread.

  39. Pats aren’t great at blowing teams out in the playoffs, even last year’s Texans game was closer than the score indicated. And Mariotta threw a TD to himself, so Titans seem to have a little extra luck this year. Pats will win by 10-12, definitely a gambling stay away.

  40. grumpysal says:
    January 12, 2018 at 12:01 pm
    Whether you win by 1 or 20, doesn’t matter to me – moving on to the AFCCG is the goal and it’s achieved in either scenario. The only people who care about point spreads are bettors, Vegas, and those that hate the Pats enough to come here and tell us all how bad they are because they didn’t “win by enough.”

    Also, an honest question – why wouldn’t you want the Pats in the SB? Every single one they’ve played since 2001 have been great games, win or lose. Would you rather watch a re-hash of the DEN/SEA blowout
    ——-
    I’ve been saying this for years. Fans of the NFL should be begging for the Pats to make it. Win or lose they’ve been involved in some of the most entertaining SBs in The history of the sport.

  41. It’s ridiculous that after being in the league 3 years, people still can’t spell MARIOTA! If you can’t t spell it, you aren’t watching him play, so your opinions of him are laughable.

  42. patrickg68 says:
    January 12, 2018 at 1:10 pm
    They covered in only 2 of 6 games, If I were a betting man, I would take TN and the pts.

    4 4 Rate This

    ———————-

    I wouildn’t.

    You must be bad at gambling.

  43. Chill_Donahue says:
    January 12, 2018 at 12:51 pm
    Pats aren’t great at blowing teams out in the playoffs, even last year’s Texans game was closer than the score indicated. And Mariotta threw a TD to himself, so Titans seem to have a little extra luck this year. Pats will win by 10-12, definitely a gambling stay away.

    3 3 Rate This

    ——————-

    Yes, they are usually low scoring games at home in the divisional rounds. lol

    The last 2 title games at home were blowouts in Foxborough, hence another reason for Goodell to push to cheat the Pats more and more.

  44. patrickg68 says:
    January 12, 2018 at 1:10 pm

    They covered in only 2 of 6 games, If I were a betting man, I would take TN and the pts.
    _____________________________________

    They beat the spread in 3 of those 6, twice as a favorite and once as a dog. It’s a good thing you aren’t a betting man, when putting your money on the line it pays to have an eye for detail.

  45. gallopinghost says:
    January 12, 2018 at 1:35 pm
    This is one of the more impressive stats I’ve ever seen

    3 0 Rate This

    ———————-

    here’s another:

    When teams rush 6, Brady has 70 TDs and 0 INTs in his career.

  46. Brady does not like to be RUSHED. LeBeau’s Titans D needs to get after Brady. Two-man defend Gronk and force Brady to rely on Hogan and Cooks. It is duly frustrating, how the Patriots are able to win with mediocre talent at WR lol — just mind-blowing.

    Here’s hoping m’boy Marcus (Mariota) and the TTs break out early in scoring.
    TTs 24
    Pats 17

  47. Not in the Super Bowl though they barley win have to rely on luck or they lose
    _______________________________________

    And that Tyree catch was what?!… Divine intervention? That stupid argument can go both ways.

  48. The guys on the both lines who have to slug it out every single play don’t consider any game to be easy.

  49. vjllsduckfan65 says:
    January 12, 2018 at 2:04 pm
    It’s ridiculous that after being in the league 3 years, people still can’t spell MARIOTA!..
    —————-

    I do not disagree but…

    Belichick has been in the league 40 years, and you still see “Bellicheck” and various derivations thereof.

  50. atthemurph says:
    January 12, 2018 at 12:32 pm
    LyinRogerMustGo says:
    January 12, 2018 at 10:33 am
    atthemurph says:
    January 12, 2018 at 9:49 am
    It should be a 2 touchdown spread because its the AFC and that conference typically has only one or two good teams.

    And yet the AFC has won the Super Bowl in 4 out of the last 5 tries. Go figure.
    —-
    Maybe the AFC champ has an advantage because they don’t have to play 2 or even 3 really good teams leading up to the SB?
    —-

    Didn’t seem to stop NFC teams in the 80s and 90’s from beating great teams in their conference AND beating the AFC in the Super Bowl practically every year. 🙂

  51. terripet says:
    January 12, 2018 at 11:56 am

    These guys are all pro players weather should not affect them-

    ————————————————————–

    You might want to check out the last game the Titans played in late winter Foxboro and edit that post!

  52. 2002 they obtained some information VIA bugged locker room and spying on closed practices to win that one. Nobody was able to slow that Offense down. Disagree all you want Pats fans but that is the truth. Still a dynasty and best team of the modern era. But some shade tree tactics to get there.

  53. If NE is so great, why is it they’ve not had 1 SB blowout in their 7 SB appearances. The most they’ve won by is 6 points scored in OT after Atlanta gave them a SB, by not kicking a FG when they had the opportunity to turn that game into a 2 score game.

    Pat’s are opportunists waiting for their opponents to foul up and hand them a victory, I’ll give you that. But that’s not greatness, that’s luck.

  54. finzfan49 says:
    January 12, 2018 at 7:12 pm

    2002 they obtained some information VIA bugged locker room and spying on closed practices to win that one. Nobody was able to slow that Offense down. Disagree all you want Pats fans but that is the truth. Still a dynasty and best team of the modern era. But some shade tree tactics to get there.
    —————————————————-

    Well, nothing you said was true, no one has ever come forward, and there is no evidence, except an article that had to be retracted, but okay. If the Rams offense was so unstoppable why didn’t they go undefeated in the regular season?

    If Pats had all of that info why did it come down to the last second field goal?

    ————————————————————————–

    skawh says:
    January 12, 2018 at 7:49

    Pat’s are opportunists waiting for their opponents to foul up and hand them a victory, I’ll give you that. But that’s not greatness, that’s luck.

    ————————————————————————

    Well, by definition EVERY good team is opportunistic.

    Yes, 100 percent the Pats have relied on luck for 7 S.B. appearances and 5 S.B. Wins. Of course, makes total sense!

    Near .800 win percentage over 17 years- That is the very definition of GREATNESS.

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