Josh Allen’s red flag is the obvious: His stats stink

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When we talk about “red flags” for NFL draft prospects, we’re usually talking about issues that are hard to quantify, like character or personality or leadership. With Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen, the red flag is very easy to quantify statistically.

Namely, the red flag is that despite his rocket arm, he stunk at throwing the football, statistically speaking: Allen was a two-year starter who completed just 56.2 percent of his passes in his college career, for a mediocre average of 7.8 yards per pass, with 44 touchdowns and 21 interceptions.

FootballOutsiders.com uses a system for projecting how college quarterbacks will play in the NFL called Quarterback-Adjusted-Stats-and-Experience, or QBASE. In that system, Allen is the only player among this year’s top quarterback prospects who comes out with a negative score. The combination of only starting two years in college and only completing 56 percent of his passes is a bad omen.

Going back to 1997, there have been 27 quarterbacks chosen in the Top 100 picks despite having a negative score on the QBASE system. Not a single one of those 27 quarterbacks has turned out to be a Pro Bowler. Among the first round picks is an ugly group that includes Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, J.P. Losman, and Patrick Ramsey.

Some have argued that Allen’s stats stink because the team around him at Wyoming stunk. Perhaps that’s true. But hoping that a quarterback who couldn’t put up good numbers in college will manage to put up good numbers in the NFL is a risky proposition, especially with the first overall pick in the draft.

89 responses to “Josh Allen’s red flag is the obvious: His stats stink

  1. This article, a long with QBASE, helps prove that teams get desperate and look past glaring talent issues in QBs coming out of college. Could Allen become a good NFL QB? In the right system with the right players and scheme around him. Perhaps a run first team with a lot of run-pass options a-la the Jaguars with Bortles? But when asked to go out and win the game from the pocket was Bortles able to do that? No.

  2. I don’t think he’s going to be a franchise QB but simply looking at his comp % is misleading. In his time as a starter he threw 14 screen passes, other QB’s in this class had that many in 2 games. Screen passes are high % throws that will up anyone’s comp percentage. I have more of an issue with the fact he didn’t really elevate his team. Great players make everyone else around them better, he didn’t seem to do that. Look at good NFL QB’s that came through mediocre or worse programs, the programs are bad, a stud QB comes through, the program gets good then falls back in to mediocrity after they leave. Wyoming didn’t get appreciably better with Allen.
    I think he’s another Jeff George, lots of talent that never pans out.

  3. There are only 2.5 good QBs in the draft, Rosen and Mayfield, with Lamar Jackson being the .5. Most overhyped QB draft of all time. I’d even take that dude outta Richmond before I’d take Allen or Darnold.

  4. People are enamored with his long ball while completely ignoring that over 90% of throws in the NFL are short to medium. It’s never a good idea to throw 90% of the game under a bus hoping that a couple of big plays will win you games.

    Unfortunately that’s a lesson that is never learned by a good many fans.

  5. He played at Wyoming, not sure TB12 could work magic there. With his arm strength the browns could rip it open with their WR group. Add in Barkley at RB with #4, maybe a surprise trade of Gronk and the Clowns are relevant again.

  6. The draft is a crap shoot. These guys are examined by hundreds of professionals and still some make and some don’t. How many first round pics have we seen bust out? You have as much chance choosing correctly with a dart board…..

  7. Allen has bad stats, Rosen is a millenial, Darnold turns it over, Jackson scored a 13, and Mayfield loves football and won a Heisman. I know who I’d take.

  8. Allen can do a lot of great things. QB’s don’t win in the NFL based on their college stats, but rather their college tape. I believe Allen has a higher completion percentage than Brett Favre did in college, and his won/loss record is much better than John Elway’s was at Stanford. Elway was way below .500. The Hall of Fame voters certainly don’t give a hoot about college stats. I do see Allen making some bad decisions, but I see Darnold and Mayfield making bad decisions too. Allen can work to improve his decision making, and being a very high pick, his team will give him plenty of time. He’ll also have an NFL O-Line in front of him. His college O-Line couldn’t protect at all. If you like to look at stats, look at what he did when he had time to throw, which was hardly ever. Some of the other QB’s had all day to sit in the pocket. I didn’t think the play calling did him any good either. They say he should have done better because he played at a lower level of competition. True, but none of his supporting cast could play in the big conferences either. So when he’s playing against Iowa, he has a high school O-Line and high school receivers going up against future NFL players (similar to Elway at Stanford). The tape shows all that stuff. The stats don’t. Lots of NFL coaches will throw you out of their office if you start rattling off stats, and I’m talking about super bowl winning coaches. Bill Walsh couldn’t stand it when someone started in with all those stats.

  9. Tall, big hands, rocket arm – oh, you thought I was talking about Allen? I was talking about Ryan Mallett…

  10. Of the top 5 QBs in this draft, only Baker Mayfield meets all of Bill Parcell’s 7 guidelines (Is he a senior? Is he a 3 year starter? Did he graduate? Did he start 30 games? Did he win 23 games? Is his TD:INT rate at least 2:1? Is his completion rate at least 60%?). Allen reminds me of guys like Kyle Boller and Josh Freeman. They look like quality QBs, with strong arms and some intangibles that meet the leadership role needed, but their college numbers don’t meet the minimum standards. Like Boller, Allen’s footwork is awful. He might be able to make it look better for combine-like showcases, but I expect he’ll revert to bad form as soon as he feels the pressure of a real game situation.

  11. Those stats aren’t much different from Eli Manning who has a slightly better 61% but notably much worse ratio at 19 TDs to 13 INTs. Giants say that’s elite, so they should be mad for Josh Allen.

  12. This Bronco fan points out that Elway’s stats in college and the pros were never very good, but nearly anybody would take his won/lost record.

  13. There’s a QB out of high school in Cartersville GA by the name of Trevor Lawrence who is a better QB than Josh Allen, right now.Its amazing that he can be a #1 overall pick.

  14. Watch some film on him. He misses open receivers regularly. These are not misleading stats. They tell the truth.

  15. While I like the stat – and I do have my worries about Allen (or any QB who “has an arm” or “can make all the throws”) – I think Pola Pe’a is correct to analyze what type of passes this guy threw in college. A lot of guys with high comp% are dinking and dunking and letting their receivers do the work. Sounds like he might have been going for it a little bit more. Worth considering.

    That said I am really not sold on ANY of the top 5 QBs as a start in 2018 savior. I might be wrong, but I don’t think this class is as talented, or as deep, as the pundits want to say it is. Allen should go later – he won’t, but he should – sit and learn. His strength can’t be overlooked – it just shouldn’t be paid top dollar for.

    Good post.

  16. I’m a Browns fan and I’ve wanted them to take Mayfield all along. I wanted them to Draft Carr a few years ago, Wentz two years ago, and I think they should’ve taken Watson last year.

    I know Mayfield isn’t a “safe” pick – but our genius owner forcing them to take Manziel was just plain stupid, not bold or daring.

    There is NOTHING that anyone knows for certain about how how any draft prospect will do in the NFL – it’s all a crapshoot – and drafting QBs is like 10x the gamble of any other position.

    Now, I firmly believe that a big part of that uncertainty is that NFL teams are generally terrible at being patient and developing QBs. Letting young QBs come along more slowly would benefit ALL of them, but what will happen in Cleveland is what always happens when a bad franchise drafts a new QB: he becomes the franchise “savior” with impossible expectations put on him and the pressure combined with the physical beating most young QBs take will (most likely) break him.

    I really hope not. I hope they let Tyrod start for a year or two. But owners always want to play with their shiny new toys, whether it’s a good decision or not.

    And when a young QB can’t magically turn a team around they’re labeled a “bust” and all of the blame will be placed on the player – as though the team had nothing to do with it. Have you noticed how teams are giving up on QBs quicker and quicker? Some get less than a season. Some never see the field. Yeah, great “development” system.

  17. Stats only say so much. When you watch the film you see he did a lot of running for his life at Wyoming, but so did Darnold at USC last year.(They are both already familiar with the Giants O!) I have him as my 4th QB. There’s just not enough there on tape compared to the other three. I’m not sure if the Josh Allen hype is the chatter of NFL front offices, or hype by “draft experts” (there is no such thing, BTW). I’m guessing Kiper is on his agent’s payroll, the way he’s been adamant about Allen. Of course, the fact that Kiper is still regarded as some kind of expert after having Jimmy Clausen #1 on his board all those years back tells you all you need to know about sports “journalism”.

  18. Kyle Boller, Jamarcus Russell. Strong arm and no accuracy is not what you want. NFL level arm and excellent accuracy is what you want.

    The stats are the one measure that you actually have for a college QB. Teams should not be drafting a QB with under 60% completions or a bad TD to INT ratio in the first round period. They never work out.

    Allen is a bust waiting to happen.

  19. Pola,

    Allen’s completion percentage isn’t misleading at all. Screen passes aren’t the only passes a QB throws with high completion rates. Slants, curls, hooks, etc…are basic high completion plays that all college offenses utilize. 56 percent completion in a lower tier football conference is a huge red flag.

  20. Sure, he didn’t have a great supporting cast around him, but he was facing talentless defenses, too. He should have been feasting on them, yet he still struggled. Even if you factor in the drops (because of his “untalented” WRs), Allen was *still* one of the least accurate QBs in FBS. Just because he *looks* like an NFL QB, that doesn’t mean that he can actually *play* like one.

  21. afwhigs says:
    April 3, 2018 at 8:25 am
    I’m a Browns fan and I’ve wanted them to take Mayfield all along. I wanted them to Draft Carr a few years ago, Wentz two years ago, and I think they should’ve taken Watson last year.

    ——————-

    Wow dude. You nailed all those picks. Some team should totally call you up to be their new GM.

  22. Allen is best suited for the Giants where he could sit behind Eli for a couple of years. Darnold for the Browns since they can’t pass on the consensus #1 and then have the guy they draft be a bust. Rosen is best suited for the Jets since he’s the most ready to play and Bowles needs to save his job. Bills fans will love Mayfield.

  23. Not to mention that playing for Wyoming, Josh was facing some pretty mediocre Defenses. Allen has big upside but he’s still a development prospect.

  24. It is just as misleading to simply pull a stat and saying, “X QB is no good because this stat” as it is to blanketly say, “His stats are no good because his team was no good.”
    It’s very easy to quantify. How many dropped passes, what where the depth of his throws and his accuracy, completion at short, intermediate and deep throws. What was his ball placement like? Was he throwing to WRs sitting in holes in the zone, or hitting receivers in stride.
    That’s where watching his film and context actually come in.

  25. uglydingo says:
    April 3, 2018 at 8:53 am
    Not to mention that playing for Wyoming, Josh was facing some pretty mediocre Defenses. Allen has big upside but he’s still a development prospect.

    —————

    I would argue that an extra strong arm isn’t upside.

  26. I get mad when I hear GMs or coaches talk about how difficult it is to pick a QB when these morons clearly see these players were barely getting it done in college. I felt I was speaking to deaf hears when last year Everyone was saying Kizer was a 1st round talent. People who complete less than 60% in college don’t get better in the pros.

    So here we are again, you have a turnover prone QB in Darnold, Rosen doesn’t seem like he loves football, and Allen is a joke. Any team who draft these guys in the first round need their heads examined. Allen completed 56% for less than 2000 yards last year ( Ranked 82 in yardage for QBs). How is that even possible in college football with far hashes that benefits the offense. In a game against Hawaii that his team won in overtime, he was 9 of 19 for 92 yards, completion rate of 47.4%. The week before against Oregon, he was 9 of 24 for 64 yards, completion rate of 37.5%. Anyone who thinks this young man is a NFL caliber QB needs their head examined.

    Even as a Steelers fan, I am hoping the Browns don’t draft him, I will like to Stop penciling Brown games as 2 wins every year. 2 Years in a row we have beaten the Browns in week 17 after benching starters.

    Just not fun anymore. Its like watching Michael Jordan dunking on a special needs kid.

  27. mrbigass says:
    April 3, 2018 at 7:26 am
    The draft is a crap shoot. These guys are examined by hundreds of professionals and still some make and some don’t. How many first round pics have we seen bust out? You have as much chance choosing correctly with a dart board…..

    ————

    Very true… but your odds of success go way down if you pick a QB that had an under 60% college completion percentage.

    You are right that nobody has even close to the magic formula.

    Obviously there is some luck involved too. If a QB is drafted by a good team and given time to develop behind a great QB it helps. It also helps if he is drafted to a good team and he plays like Big ben. Early success in the wins column gives a young QB the grace period to develop. Those QBs that won the Super Bowl young like Brady, Ben, Eli and Wilson (all behind great defenses) were able to use that as a launching pad to get much better.

  28. denverdave3 says:
    April 3, 2018 at 8:12 am
    This Bronco fan points out that Elway’s stats in college and the pros were never very good, but nearly anybody would take his won/lost record.
    ———————
    And Elway was always the bridesmaid in the playoffs, and all the 2nd half of his career (i.e. after 1991) was poor in W/L – until the last 3yrs when thanks to not one but two massive cap-rule violations each of $29M (back when the cap was $57M) artificially kept together a team of veterans and talents that other teams playing by the rules had zero chance of matching.

  29. I have two ‘friends’ who were 1st round busts. What did they have in common? They both hated football and the money was to set up personal business passions (which they both were extremely successful at).

    You weren’t even allowed to talk football with them. Non starter. One guy was a jerk the other, the nicest person on the planet.

    So my experience suggests it’s that driving passion/love that separates the busts from the stars. Both my friends lasted 12 years. That’s a long time to hate something and both are names you’d have to google unless you’re a diehard fan of their respective teams.

    So I know who I would pick too. If you’re going to roll the dice, I’d rather have someone who loved me than useless arm candy.

  30. Everything about this Josh Allen screams below average. You know why you don’t see the kid who can hit 550 foot homeruns but only bats .150 in AAA being called up to play for the Yankees? Because if he can’t dominate lower competition he’s gonna get creamed by the big leagues. As a Browns fan I’m screaming “NO!” even louder than I did before they drafted Johnny.

    This kid can’t play. Yes, he can throw the ball 80 yards, but former Ravens QB Kyle Boller could throw 70 yards from his knees, but how did it work out with him as the Ravens starting QB? Awful. His best season: 2004. He was 9-7, 2559 13TDs 11INTs. His second best year: 4-5, 1799 11TDs 12INTs. His NFL career 56.7% completion rate is similar to his 53.4% his SR year at Cal. I’m hoping this guy isn’t on the Browns radar for real. He is so terrible, I’m wondering why he is even considered a top prospect besides a big, inaccurate arm.

  31. Watch the tape on this kid and you’ll realize he should be drafted in the 6th round. Don’t be surprised if this kid falls on draft day like Matt Barkley and Geno Smith.

  32. This reminds me of what Cowherd said about Christian Hackenberg. He said guys that can’t complete 60% of their passes in college won’t make it in the NFL…

  33. This article reminded me of those old promo commercials for the NFL, maybe 12-15 years ago, showing people making terrible draft predictions (maybe relating to fantasy football too? Can’t quite remember. Anyway, there was a bearded guy with a Boston accent in them, and in one he says, with confidence, “JP Losman is the reincahhnation of Kenny Stablah.” And another one that ended the ad: same guy on the phone…”yeah, Pittsburgh drafted some quarterback —HONEY, WHO DID THE STEELERS DRAFT AGAIN?—….[no response]….I don’t know, Roethl-something….Nice pick, Cowhah🙄” Man I miss those ads, those were quality, haha.

  34. afwhigs says:
    April 3, 2018 at 8:25 am
    I’m a Browns fan and I’ve wanted them to take Mayfield all along. I wanted them to Draft Carr a few years ago, Wentz two years ago, and I think they should’ve taken Watson last year.

    ————

    i’m sure you also wanted them to take brady years ago… smh

  35. Remember that Josh Allen had a very good week at the Senior Bowl, then played very well in the game against other top competition. Coaches have had pretty much all good things to say about him.

  36. The secret ingredient with the Browns is that ALLEN will sit for a year or two. Most peeps are using the instant NFL starter formula like Tim Couch and Deshon Kizer etc.

  37. charliecharger says:
    April 3, 2018 at 7:57 am

    I do see Allen making some bad decisions, but I see Darnold and Mayfield making bad decisions too. Allen can work to improve his decision making, and being a very high pick, his team will give him plenty of time.
    ____________________________________________

    Uh, being a very high pick in today’s NFL generally means they do not get plenty of time. A few have in recent years but it’s become the exception rather than the rule.

  38. backintheday99 says:
    April 3, 2018 at 9:13 am

    I have two ‘friends’ who were 1st round busts. What did they have in common? They both hated football and the money was to set up personal business passions (which they both were extremely successful at).

    You weren’t even allowed to talk football with them. Non starter. One guy was a jerk the other, the nicest person on the planet.
    ___________________________________________

    Why would stay friends with a jerk? Did he marry into the family?

  39. I want to like Josh Allen but I keep thinking of what Jordan Palmer said about him, being like an 8th grade basketball player playing against 6th graders and not needing to learn to dribble with his left hand. The good news is he doesn’t appear to be completely tone deaf like Brandon Weeden staring down one receiver. On the other hand it blows me away that he is only now realizing that you need to make a ball more catchable by changing angle and speed.

  40. oscarxray says:
    April 3, 2018 at 9:58 am
    I want to like Josh Allen but I keep thinking of what Jordan Palmer said about him, being like an 8th grade basketball player playing against 6th graders and not needing to learn to dribble with his left hand. The good news is he doesn’t appear to be completely tone deaf like Brandon Weeden staring down one receiver. On the other hand it blows me away that he is only now realizing that you need to make a ball more catchable by changing angle and speed.

    ———–

    There’s no question that Allen deserves a shot, but why in the top of the first round based on his past performance? Late first round or early second round would be a good spot to get a guy like this and then develop him behind a consistent starter.

  41. I mean I don’t scout for a living and don’t pretend to know who is going to work out and who isn’t in most cases, but this guy can’t play. Anyone trying to pretend he can is delusional.

  42. Statistically speaking, Sam Darnold (lots of turnovers) and Josh Rosen weren’t much better but they did play against stronger competition. The QB with the best stats by far is Baker Mayfield followed up by Lamar Jackson but for whatever reason they aren’t as highly touted by draftniks as Allen, Darnold and Rosen. I was firm that Baker Mayfield should be the top pick but the strength of Allen’s arm combined with his intelligence, (scored far better than the others on the Wonderlic and that matters to NFL teams or they wouldn’t test them on it), makes me think Josh Allen will be the top pick.

  43. It really wouldn’t shock me if he fell outside the top 10. I don’t understand how a competent GM would want to stake his career on taking Allen in the top 5. I guess we’ll have to wait and see if someone’s dumb enough to do it.

  44. I have stated from day one that the only true franchise QB in this draft is Baker Mayfield and if he were 3 inches taller we wouldn’t hear about these other guys. Josh Allen looks the part and has the arm that is why scouts love him. Josh Rosen throws a pretty spiral when he isn’t injured and that’s why scouts love him. Darnold is loved like most USC QBs but the only one that has been worth a damn is Carson Palmer. The rest of the USC QBs have all been busts and Darnold is a turnover machine but because he is taller than Mayfield he is rumored to go 1st overall. Insanity!

  45. I’m confused – with all the haters going after Kirk Cousins because of his stats are meaningless – the fact he’s improved every year and has been a top 10 passer in pases over 20 and over 50 yards seems to be ignored when he’s called a dump off passer…

    So now we diss a player who doesn’t have those stats?

    You fools.

  46. His stats weren’t good. Mel Kiper’s been giving him the benefit of the doubt because he had lost his top WR, TE, RB, and center the year before.

    During the regular season, they only scored more than 28 points twice, which is disappointing considering that Wyoming enjoys a huge home field elevation advantage by playing at 7,220 feet. Allen’s teams were a safe bet to never score a lot of points, they hit the under 10 out of 13 times.

  47. You want to see a college QB elevate the performance of the guys around him. All of the great NFL QB’s do that. Playing with inferior college talent gives them an opportunity to showcase their NFL ability. USC QB’s fail because the superior talent around them is elevating their game in college and disguising their weaknesses. My money is on Mayfield. The others will be backups in the NFL shortly.

  48. The guy had a terrible offensive line and bad receivers in college. Buddy Ryan used to say if you put heat on a quarterback he won’t be accurate add that to the fact that Allen offensive line was bad it means any quarterback put in his position would be inaccurate. This guy reminds me of Carson Wentz and I think the Browns would be smart to draft him but not with the first pick. They should use the first pick for Barkley then draft Allen at number 4.

  49. This is Josh Allen who played at the powerhouse Wyoming that we’re talking about, right? I mean his low completion % was probably due to the fact that he played several of the best defenses in the country…oh wait.

    We wasn’t exactly throwing against pro-caliber DBs and still couldn’t complete 60% of this passes? That would be a huge red flag for me.

  50. He’s big. He’s smart. Practices well. He has a strong arm. But can he do it when there is pressure in his face and still make the reads?
    Isn’t this the question for all QBs? Put Rosen or Darnold on that Wyoming team. How would they have faired? I think Mayfield would have been okay, but the others??? I don’t think so well.

  51. switchwitch59 says:

    April 3, 2018 at 6:34 am

    Just curious, what was Tom Brady’s score?

    —————————————–

    Infinity billion.

  52. Stats and combine stuff aren’t nearly as important as game film. It’s just that game film takes time and work to actually view and process. Unless you’re already a fan of a particular college program and watch their games anyway, how many games do you see a particular college QB play in? Maybe 3 or 4 if they’re a nationally ranked program. One would like to think pro scouts are actually looking at film of all the quarterbacks in the draft and not just relying on stats and combine/pro-day stuff.

  53. This is how NFL scouting works in general. The 40 is a huge part of the combine though guys very seldom run that far at full speed in a straight line–explosion over 5 to 10 yards is a far better test but the NFL looks at the 40 because that’s how they’ve always done it. And they love QBs who can throw it 80 yards even though no offense today is built around those skills. It’s the equivalent of going to a longest drive competition and assuming the winner there is going to lead the PGA tour in victories.

  54. Yards per pass is a misleading statistic because it can be dragged down when a passer has a low completion percentage. Yards per completion is a better indicator. 56% completion is low but not disastrous. It is acceptable. Touchdown to interception ratio is a good measure. Josh Allen is good in this regard. Overall his stats are not great but pretty good.

  55. just cause we are using college stats(which can be complete garbage anyways, just look at their horrible passer rating system they have), doesn’t mean he won’t pan out. i mean for christ sake, tom brady probably didn’t have lights out stats at michigan, and look at him today. he’s arguably the greatest quarterback to ever play the game period. yes, even better than brittle rodgers.

    but seriously it’s eiher allen or mayfield for the win.

  56. gator2006 says: April 3, 2018 at 7:31 am
    Allen has bad stats, Rosen is a millenial, Darnold turns it over, Jackson scored a 13, and Mayfield loves football and won a Heisman. I know who I’d take.
    ==============================

    The other QBs in this draft are millennials as well. As for Mayfield winning the Heisman, LOL. As a Gator fan, you of all people ought to know that winning the Heisman means squat when it comes to the pros. Tebow? Wuerffel? How about every single QB (Heisman and non-Heisman) from the ENTIRE state of Florida since the early 90s? Every single one was a bust or just average in the NFL.

  57. Josh Allen is rated this highly because people think he’s the next Carson Wentz. If not for Carson Wentz, this guy would be 5th round pick material.

  58. is he coachable? he played within his system, maybe the talent was so bad he couldn’t elevate it. No screen game large percent of low completion throws not his fault. Is he being overrated because of Wentz maybe.. bottom line we don’t know what he or Mayfield or Rosen are gonna do until they get into the NFL.

  59. Ultraviolet Thunder says:
    April 3, 2018 at 10:21 am

    I’m confused – with all the haters going after Kirk Cousins because of his stats are meaningless – the fact he’s improved every year and has been a top 10 passer in pases over 20 and over 50 yards seems to be ignored when he’s called a dump off passer…

    So now we diss a player who doesn’t have those stats?

    You fools.
    ___________________________________________

    From a poster that routinely dumps on one of the best QB’s of all time and the only one of them with 5 rings that’s an amusing post.

  60. omeimontis says:
    April 3, 2018 at 11:35 am
    Yards per pass is a misleading statistic because it can be dragged down when a passer has a low completion percentage. Yards per completion is a better indicator. 56% completion is low but not disastrous. It is acceptable. Touchdown to interception ratio is a good measure. Josh Allen is good in this regard. Overall his stats are not great but pretty good.

    ——————————————————————————————————————-
    Hundley was a fifth rounder out of UCLA, YPP were 8. Reason he threw a lot of slant plays and his accuracy long was atrocious. He did what he was comfortable with, short passes. Not working in the NFL in case you missed his playing

  61. Plainly stated, accuracy in college is a great predictor of QB success in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers lead the nation his senior year of college in accuracy, just saying…….

  62. How was his “football work ethic”, in particular his study of defenses, and how did he react in games when he was pressured? Those are the biggest factors in the success of QBs who make it to the NFL

  63. denverdave3 says:
    April 3, 2018 at 8:12 am

    This Bronco fan points out that Elway’s stats in college and the pros were never very good, but nearly anybody would take his won/lost record.

    Everyone should keep in mind when declaring Elway’s greatness that his career Super Bowl QB rating is a crummy and awful 59.32. Keep in mind that Elway was in 5 Super Bowls and got destroyed in the 3 of them where he was just terrible. And in the ones he won, they were overwhelmingly team efforts where Elway did not have to do much except let the defense and the running game dominate and do their job. Sure, he had to make a few good passes to keep the other defense honest, but there were never any super performances by Elway in any of his Super Bowls.

    In perspective, the great QBs are those who perform great in the NFL’s Super Bowls.

  64. blah773 says:
    April 3, 2018 at 9:34 am
    afwhigs says:
    April 3, 2018 at 8:25 am
    I’m a Browns fan and I’ve wanted them to take Mayfield all along. I wanted them to Draft Carr a few years ago, Wentz two years ago, and I think they should’ve taken Watson last year.

    ————

    i’m sure you also wanted them to take brady years ago… smh

    —————————

    Yeah, that’s not how I meant it at all – all of those were generally well-regarded, MUCH BETTER picks than they made – and that they had access to. As in – these were picks that the Browns were allegedly considering but passed on. I was not saying that I am some sort of draft expert (I know I didn’t phrase it well).

    They’ve repeatedly passed on well-regarded QBs in the first round (and Manziel doesn’t count – he wasn’t deserving of a first round pick, Haslam made them do it) – as I said, they had access to all of those players, they were in the pre-draft conversation, but passed.

  65. Pola Pe’a says:
    April 3, 2018 at 6:15 am
    I don’t think he’s going to be a franchise QB but simply looking at his comp % is misleading.
    ——
    Not sure if you bothered to read the whole article, but the QBASE rating calculates a lot more than completion percentage.

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